055
FXUS61 KLWX 222336
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
736 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Pockets of light rain and
drizzle will continue through Wednesday midday along with cooler
than normal temperatures. Minor coastal flooding tonight through
Wednesday at most tidal locations around the Chesapeake Bay and
tidal Potomac.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Damp and dreary conditions continue through Wednesday afternoon
with drier weather returning Thursday.
- 2) Turning breezy and drier with a gradual warming trend
Friday into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Damp and dreary conditions continue through
Wednesday afternoon with drier weather returning Thursday.
Not a whole lot has changed in the synoptic pattern with
strong/broad wedging high pressure over southeast Quebec and a
stalled boundary over the VA/NC border. Ripples of low pressure
continue to traverse this boundary to the south sending on and off
showers to the region.
Expect a steady supply of abundant low cloud cover, showers/drizzle,
and cool temperatures to continue through at least Wednesday
afternoon. This is due largely in part to a series of low pressure
systems passing along the stalled front to the south and a delay of
mid level dry air from the north as wedging high pressure
strengthens over southeast Canada. Conditions will slowly improve
from north to south late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.
The wedging high pressure system should allow for the drainage of
more dry air to the south shunting the front into the Carolinas
while also developing a coastal low pressure system off the
Delmarva/NC coast. This coastal low feature will supply extra
subsidence Wednesday night into Thursday allowing for widespread
drying conditions across the region. Unfortunately, with the low
nearby breezy conditions will remain along with coastal flooding
woes over sensitive locations within the bay/tidal Potomac (see
tides discussion).
Given increased northeast flow expect steady temperatures in the
upper 50s and mid 60s to continue through Wednesday with a warming
trend Thursday as some sunshine returns. Northeasterly winds will
gusts 15-30 mph at times with the highest gusts over the bay and
higher ridges, especially Wednesday through Friday as coastal low
pressure strengthens. The wind will give us more of a raw late Fall
feel heading into Wednesday afternoon. Highs get back into the low
to mid 60s with even few spots hitting 70 Thursday afternoon.
Rainfall wise most locations should see 1-3 inches of rainfall
(includes what has fallen since Monday, and what is yet to fall
through Wednesday afternoon). This should be beneficial in nature
given the ongoing drought conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning breezy and drier with a gradual warming
trend Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High pressure will start weakening on Thu as low pressure forms a
couple hundred miles off the coast and begins to track north and
then west toward the coast. Global models show the low pressure
making its closest approach to our area Sunday afternoon. Ensemble
guidance show most of the rain staying to our east, but there is a
small chance that it could make it as far west as I-95. The
northeast flow should start weakening Thu, but there is still a
chance that the winds may strengthen again Fri night into the
weekend as low pressure approaches the coast. At this time, there
isn`t a definite clear trend of what winds will do this weekend as
the track of the low and how close it gets to the coast remains
highly uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light showers and pockets of drizzle continue to drive lower cigs
and vsby reductions this evening. As of 00z/8pm, it`s a combination
of IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys with intermittent northeasterly winds
gusting between 15-20 kts. Expect these conditions to continue for
most locations heading into Wednesday morning with slow improvement
from northeast MD points south Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon. Ceilings will likely lift back to MVFR at most terminals
early to mid Wednesday morning with low end VFR Wednesday midday
into the afternoon. Lower ceilings will likely hang on the longest
at CHO/RIC/SHD lingering through at least Wednesday evening as the
front shunts further south of the region.
Rain showers and drizzle will come to an end from northeast to
southwest Wednesday morning into late Wednesday afternoon. Outside
of the showers, will be the wind with northeast gusts around 15 to
25 kts tonight through Thursday afternoon. Highest gusts will be at
terminals near the water (i.e DCA/BWI/MTN) and terminals near the
higher ridges. VFR conditions return Thursday as breezy northeast
winds continue with passing mid and high level clouds.
Fair weather Friday through Sunday. Winds will likely stay on the
breezy side through Sunday with gusts 20-30 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through tonight,
with gusts to around 30 knots, especially over the open and middle
waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the waters surrounding
southern Maryland for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all other waters Wednesday through
Wednesday night for gusts up to 30 knots.
High-end SCA conditions likely continue in northeasterly flow on
Thursday and Friday, and gales could linger over the wider waters of
the mid bay. Small craft conditions will continue through weekend
into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will continue to rise through at least Thursday due to
persistent onshore flow and high astronomical tides from a near Full
Moon cycle. Coastal Flood Watches have been extended in time for
Anne Arundel and St. Mary`s Counties and a new one has been issued
for the City of Alexandria. All other Coastal Flood Advisories have
been extended in time due to the expected long duration event of
coastal flooding. Expect some watches to be converted to warnings
later tonight or early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through late
Thursday night for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for MDZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
morning for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ057.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/EST
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/EST
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion