244
FXUS61 KLWX 120639
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded Heat Advisories westward today in coordination with
neighboring offices.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions persist today with another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms expected.
- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into
next week as a cold front moves through the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions persist today with another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms expected.
Heat and humidity lingers today, and unless there is a lot of
morning cloud cover it looks to be a bit hotter. There is the
potential for a bit more mixing down of lower dew points given
lingering westerly flow, but heat index values likely approach
100 to 105 again in the afternoon. Have expanded the Heat
Advisory westward in coordination with neighboring WFOs.
However, as always, just because an advisory may not be in
effect for all areas, it will be very hot/humid either way, so
all should take proper precautions once again.
Stronger forcing associated with an upper trough glancing by to
the NW and an approaching cold front lends to higher certainty
of another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Flow aloft will tick up slightly, though still modest and out of
the W to WNW. SPC has maintained a level 2 out of 5 (Slight
Risk) for the entire forecast area. Hi-res CAMs have somewhat
of a consensus focusing the bulk of the convection along/south
of I-66/US-50 with isolated stuff further north. Convection
today looks to be more sporadic and less organized than that of
yesterday given the better shear is north of the area. Main
concern is any clusters that grow upscale. Given the amount of
instability in place once again, thunderstorms may produce some
rather gusty winds. Severe/damaging wind gusts are plausible,
especially with the added forcing that should help force storms
into bands. Isolated large hail is possible with the most
intense updrafts, and again could see the potential for some
significant wind gusts.
Thunderstorm activity should wind down by the evening hours.
Following the cold frontal passage tonight, high pressure will
briefly pivot over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday. This results in
notably lower humidity and temperatures several degrees cooler
(relatively speaking) as well.
More sun than clouds amid light northwest breezes are expected.
Temperatures falling into the 60s Saturday night with dew points
around 60 will feel like a stark contrast to the more oppressive
humidity in the preceding couple of days/nights.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return late
Sunday into next week as a cold front moves through the region.
A deep upper-level trough will form over the Great Lakes towards the
end of the weekend, resulting in a cold front that will track
through the East Coast between late Sunday and going into Monday.
Appears to be enough shear and forcing, main question Sunday is
the instability. Latest guidance has the higher instability SE
of the local FA. Still a few days out, a lot can change with
convection at this juncture.
Once this cold front moves through, we could begin to see a brief
dip in temperatures, with highs for Monday currently ranging largely
in the 80s. Although the low pressure system associated with this
front will push north by late Monday, another area of low pressure
could build towards the south and push north on Tuesday, bringing
additional chances for rain and showers. By this point, severe
chances become much more uncertain as instability looks rather weak,
but overall expect a repeating pattern of frontal boundaries
tracking through the region bringing several opportunities for
precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through this evening.
Have maintained PROB30 for the thunderstorm potential this
afternoon. There is still some uncertainty amongst model
guidance for now, overall thinking is convection is less
organized today. Some of the high-res model guidance continues
to disagree. Will monitor future trends.
Winds will be fairly light out of the west or southwest both
days outside of any storms.
VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend, with
some reduced conditions possible beginning Sunday evening associated
with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. Periodically reduced
conditions associated with a low pressure system could continue
through early next week. Gusts between 15-20 knots are possible
Sunday evening before falling again Monday, with southwest winds
shifting easterly by Monday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through
today, becoming northwest tonight through Saturday. There is a
potential of at least brief near SCA conditions behind a cold
front tonight into Saturday morning, though the threat has
decreased somewhat. Ahead of this front, potential showers and
thunderstorms bring a risk of lightning and strong winds to the
waters on this afternoon/evening. This will likely support the
need of Special Marine Warnings, with 50+ knot winds possible in
any storms.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday evening with gusts up to 20 knots
possible, but should go back below SCA thresholds by Monday morning.
Southwest winds shift northerly Monday afternoon before shifting
southeast.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average today. This approaches or exceeds daily record
values at some sites.
Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for today (June 12th).
=================================================================
June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site Record High Record Warm Low
DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015)
IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986)
BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947)
DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914)
CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-
526-527.
WV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for ANZ530.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CJL/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/SRT
MARINE...CJL/CPB/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion