798
FXUS61 KLWX 310648
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions for Halloween. No
hazardous weather expected through Tuesday with precipitation
chances returning by the middle and end of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  Tuesday. Precipitation chances return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue through
Tuesday. Precipitation chances return late next week.

1033-1035 mb surface high pressure will build in from the north
today before meandering over the Chesapeake Bay/Delmarva Sunday into
Monday. As a result, expect light surface winds out of the north and
northwest today switching to the south Sunday. Temperatures will
remain seasonable throughout the weekend with highs in the 60s (50s
mountains) and lows in the 40s (30s valleys).

High pressure will gradually move offshore Tuesday into Wednesday as
a deep upper level trough approaches from the Tennessee/lower Ohio
River Valleys. Guidance continues to show numerous pieces of
shortwave energy expected to traverse the base of this trough during
this period. Additionally, there is indication that a cutoff low
will develop over the southeastern CONUS ahead of this trough
pattern. The interaction of these systems is likely to be complex,
with it being hard to tell exactly where all of the pieces line up
at this stage.The GFS has at least two cutoff lows along the trough
itself while the Canadian and Euro have a low along the trough and
off the coastal Carolinas. As for timing, the GFS and Canadian are
slower compared to the Euro counterpart. With that said, expect dry
conditions to continue through Wednesday as high pressure retreats
further offshore allowing the ridge to flatten/mid-level dry air to
erode. This will allow precipitation chances to increase from the
southwest late Wednesday with widespread rainfall Thursday into
Friday. High pressure will quickly return behind the system Friday
into the upcoming weekend before a more potent trough/push of cold
air follows beyond the period.

Monday through Thursday: High temperatures will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge with those along and west in the
upper 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through at least Tuesday.
High pressure will build from the north today before meandering over
the area Sunday into Monday and pushing offshore by the middle of
next week. Winds will be light and variable out of the north today
before switching to the south Sunday and southeast Monday at less
than 10 kts. Some patchy fog or frost is possible in the river
valleys over the next few mornings with ground fog at the local
corridor terminals prior to daybreak each morning. Confidence
in this is low given ample dry air in place across the region.
However, some low chances of sub-VFR ceilings exist late Monday
night into Tuesday depending on how the weather pattern evolves.

Sub-VFR conditions may return as early as Wednesday as rain chances
return to the forecast. More widespread sub-VFR conditions are
expected THursday into Friday as a wave of low pressure crosses the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions (north/northwest gusts 20-25 kts) are expected
through early this morning, especially over the open waters. This is
largely due in part to northerly channeling. Winds diminish below
below sub-SCA levels this afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions look to
continue Sunday into Monday with wedging high pressure meandering
nearby. Winds will change to the south and southeast as high
pressure sits north and east of the area. Speeds will generally be
between 5-10 kts.

Winds turn out of the east Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, but should remain short of SCA
criteria until at least Wednesday evening. Thereafter, winds do pick
up slightly and could reach criteria Wednesday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KRR/EST
AVIATION...CJL/EST
MARINE...CJL/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion