703
FXUS61 KLWX 050126
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
926 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A return of hot weather through Sunday with a chance of
  some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

- 2) Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold
  front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A return of hot weather through Sunday with a
chance of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

Mostly clear skies are likely tonight with relatively light
winds. Ample radiational cooling effects supports lows dropping
to the mid 50s to mid 60s.

While the core of the upper ridging is centered over the
southeastern U.S., above average heights continue into Friday
across the northeastern U.S. This will promote further warming,
particularly as mean gradients turn more southwesterly in
nature. Despite some added high cirrus, high temperatures soar
into the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday. Overnight conditions
gradually turn milder into Friday night and the weekend given
southerly gradients.

The peak of the summertime heat comes on Saturday with highs
pushing into the low/mid 90s. This does come with a couple of
question marks as the northern extent of the southeastern U.S.
ridge begins to buckle. Further, some additional clouds move
into the area on Saturday from upstream convection over the Ohio
Valley. Where clouds are thicker and more plentiful, some of the
heating could be stunted a tad. Given it is early June, any
daily records will be limited given a forecast in the low/mid
90s. The one exception would be KIAD (Washington Dulles) which
has a softer record last set at 93 degrees in 2021.

Depending on how upstream convection evolves, some of this could
reach western Maryland into portions of the eastern West
Virginia panhandle. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible
over this region if any instability remains. Otherwise, some
residual showers push through the region late Saturday. Coverage
may be somewhat limited given less than optimal low-level
moisture and the frontal passage occurring during the diurnal
minimum in heating. The cold front crosses much of the region
early Sunday which is a trend in the quicker direction. As it
stands, the convective threat is looking more minimal on Sunday
as dew points fall and northwesterly flow ensues. Ample post-
frontal sunshine should push highs back into the upper 80s to
low 90s, with 70s to mid 80s in the mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of
a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return
mid-week.

A cold front departs south of the region Monday morning with cooler
temperatures expected in its wake. As upper level troughing pivots
offshore, surface high pressure centered over New England builds
over the region bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday
will be in the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the
mid to upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s
and 60s. Temperatures continue to cool slightly with highs on
Tuesday in the low to mid 80s (70s mtns). Upper level ridging begins
building over the east coast Wednesday with temperatures beginning
to gradually warming. High temperatures will be in the 90s for most
on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are looking likely through Saturday evening. High
pressure remains in charge until Friday before gradually pushing
offshore. Winds shift to southwesterly Friday. Heading into the
weekend, any shower chances arrive late Saturday into the
overnight hours. A restriction cannot be ruled out if showers
become heavier. Despite the overnight timing of this system, a
few rumbles of thunder are also possible.

A cold front pushing through the forecast area will brings showers
and thunderstorms to the terminals early Sunday before exiting
throughout the day. Flight restrictions are possible during heaviest
precipitation with conditions expected to improve Sunday afternoon
and into the evening. VFR conditions return on Monday. Northwest
winds gust up to 15 knots on Sunday. In the wake of the front, winds
shift to easterly gusting around 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
As winds turn southerly across the lower waters tonight, some
uptick is possible. However, confidence remains low for these
winds to reach advisory levels. A more pronounced ramp up is
looking more likely Friday evening/night due to southerly
channeling effects. This may warrant some Small Craft
Advisories. For Saturday, while southerlies increase during the
day ahead of a cold front, hot air temperatures above the cooler
waters would lead to some temperature inversions. It remains to
be seen if advisories would be needed.

Northwest winds on Sunday remain bellow Small Craft Advisory
criteria on Sunday. In the wake of a cold front, winds shift to
easterly on Monday. Winds increase, gusting 15 to 20 knots with
Advisories likely in the southern portions of the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KRR
MARINE...AVS/BRO/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion