086
FXUS61 KLWX 061422
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1022 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A passing cold front brings beneficial rainfall this
 morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm chances this
 afternoon.

- 2) Daily chances of showers & thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A passing cold front brings beneficial rainfall this
 morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm chances this
 afternoon.

A cold front is expected to slowly track from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area today. Light stratiform rain is
ongoing across the bulk of the forecast area this morning ahead
of the front, and will come to an end from west to east over the
next few hours. After a brief lull during the early afternoon
hours, additional showers and storms should develop along the
cold front in the vicinity of the Blue Ridge/US-15 corridor
between roughly 2 and 4 PM, then slowly drift off toward the
southeast. These showers and storms should impact the I-95
corridor between 4 and 8 PM. Another area of showers and storms
may develop across Central Virginia this evening and track east-
northeastward toward the Fredericksburg area and Southern
Maryland between 8 PM and Midnight.

With the ongoing stratiform rain and thick cloud cover trailing
the rain, destabilization ahead of the showers and storms is
expected to be limited and mainly driven by low-level moisture
convergence/ dewpoint rises. Most forecast models show around
500 J/kg developing by later this afternoon into early this
evening. Shear on the other hand, won`t be lacking, with most
forecast soundings showing around 60 knots of effective bulk
shear, and 100+ knots of shear in the cloud bearing layer. Today
may actually be a case where strong shear could actually be
detrimental to the development of severe thunderstorms, as the
shear could lead to extremely tilted updrafts in the absence of
stronger instability. However, we`ll still need to keep an eye
on any thunderstorms that form this afternoon within the highly
sheared environment. SPC currently has much of the forecast area
outlooked in General Thunder, and AI guidance is also
downplaying the risk for severe thunderstorms. Any lingering
thunderstorms across Southern Maryland should wind down by
around Midnight, but showers will linger on and off through the
night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily chances of showers & thunderstorms this
weekend.

An upper level atmospheric perturbation results in a shortwave
trough moving through the area on Saturday, where a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon & evening. Temperatures
start to creep back up into the 70s and low 80s this weekend, before
another cold front moves in from the Great Lakes, bringing
additional rain and thunderstorms starting Sunday afternoon and into
Monday. NCAR`s AI Medium-Range convective hazards forecast currently
has the region included in its 5%-15% probability for severe weather
during this event, but will have to see how far north or south the
low is tracking by then.

High pressure moves into the region on Tuesday, bringing drier air
and clearing skies early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratiform rain is ongoing across the area this morning, and
will gradually exit off toward the east over the next few hours.
MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are expected beginning around
15Z and persisting through the early afternoon. Stratiform rain
showers move out early in the afternoon with additional showers
and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Thunderstorms
and lingering light rain showers are represented in PROB30
groups across all terminals. Precipitation moves out Thursday
afternoon with dry conditions expected through Friday.

Winds shift to north/northwest behind the front and are
expected to remain light, blowing 5 to 10 knots with gusts near
15 knots in the afternoon. Winds shift to southerly on Friday.

Southerly winds temporarily shift west as a shortwave trough
meanders through Saturday night, before shifting south again Sunday
morning. Expect periods of sub-VFR conditions across terminals on
both Saturday & Sunday as showers and thunderstorms move through the
region during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect 6PM this evening as south
winds gust up to 25 knots. A cold front moves across the waters late
this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are possible as
the front passes through which may lead to SMWs needing to be
issued. In the wake of the front, winds shift to north/northwesterly
and are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday.

Southerly winds gust near SCA criteria on Saturday before
diminishing in the evening. Winds stay below SCA criteria for
most of the day Sunday, but increase to potential SCA thresholds
later that evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion