562
FXUS61 KLWX 051929
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have been performing by a few degrees in parts of
the Shenandoah Valley and surrounding areas. Otherwise, the
forecast is largely on track, with precipitation chances having
been raised a bit along the I-95 corridor tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonable warmth and rain chances through Friday.

- 2) Seasonably cool weather returns this weekend.

- 3) Dry conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonable warmth and rain chances through
Friday.

A cold front was set to cross the Appalachian crest as of early
afternoon. South to southwesterly breezes combined with cloud
breaks were pushing temperatures well into the 70s (60s in the
mountains). Spotty light shower activity was developing ahead of
the front.

As the front crosses the I-81 corridor and eventually the Blue
Ridge/Catoctin Mountains this evening, it will slow and briefly
stall due to stubborn high pressure offshore. Lift will increase
via continued warm/moist low-level advection and convergence, as
well as forcing for ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough and jet
streak. This will likely result in a broken band of showers and
a few thunderstorms near and east of I-95 through much of the
night. PWATs will remain in the 1-1.5" range near and east of
I-95 with heavy downpours possible. Around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE will likely develop along the front due to mid-level
cooling and low-level moistening, but the low levels should be
rather stable. Aloft, lapse rates are rather modest through much
of the column (though a bit steeper in upper levels). So while
some lightning-producing updrafts of moderate intensity are
plausible, the risk for severe weather (tornadoes, hail, or
damaging winds) is very low. The risk for flooding is also very
low due to recent dry conditions.

The front will slowly begin to shift southeastward and out of
the area on Friday as a wave of low pressure develops and lifts
north-northeast away from the region. Rain chances linger over
southern Maryland into early Friday evening, with a few
sprinkles or showers possible further west (especially along and
west of the Allegheny Front in upslope) as the upper trough
swings through. Temperatures may cool enough to result in a mix
or change to spotty light snow late Friday night into Saturday
morning for elevations above 3500 feet in the Appalachians as
conditions dry and cool elsewhere on northwest breezes. These
breezes will usher in seasonably cooler air for the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably cool weather returns this weekend.

High pressure will build near and south of the region this
weekend. Northwest breezes are likely to stay elevated for many
locations (higher elevations, northern and eastern piedmont, the
metros, and over/near larger waterways like the Chesapeake Bay
and tidal Potomac River). Closer to the high in the central
Shenandoah Valley into the central Virginia piedmont, winds may
decouple Saturday night and especially Sunday night resulting in
the potential for near freezing temperatures. The growing season
remains active for all areas east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin
Mountains except for western Loudoun County in Virginia, and
Frederick County in Maryland. It is possible that patchy frost
may develop late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across
areas the decouple in central Virginia, but frost/near freezing
temperatures are more likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
Still, with the center of the high pressure to the south, there
may be enough of a light wind to keep the I-95 corridor and
northern-to-central Maryland to prevent frost/freeze in these
locations. Otherwise, outside of some lingering light upslope
along and west of the Allegheny Front Saturday, the weekend
looks to turn out dry.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry conditions early next week.

After a brief wet and humid period late this week, conditions
start to dry out again this weekend in the wake of a cold
front. Upper-level ridging settles in overhead by Monday with
generally clear conditions anticipated, although winds could
remain breezy as the front transitions offshore. As upper-level
ridging transitions to zonal flow in the following couple of
days, conditions should continue to remain benign, with
diminishing winds by mid week.

Afternoon highs drop back into the lower 60s in the immediate
aftermath of the front, but gradually increase again through
Wednesday as high pressure lingers. Expect somewhat above
seasonable temperatures to persist as this dry pattern
continues, though there are hints of a pattern shift toward the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A scattered to broken stratocu deck around FL025-035 lingers as
of 18Z/1PM EST this afternoon, and should continue to gradually
lift through dark (22Z/5PM EST). Meanwhile, mid-level clouds
will continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds will remain out of the south and southwest 8-12 kts with
gusts of 16-22 kts ahead of the front this afternoon, becoming
a bit lighter with more occasional gusts this evening. Spotty
light shower activity with minimal impact is developing along
the front. Heavier showers and even a few thunderstorms may
begin to develop east of I-81 as early as 21Z/4PM EST, however
confidence in restrictions at any one TAF site is too low to
include in the TAF quite that early (would be most likely
between MRB and IAD per latest hi-res guidance). By 00Z-02Z
(7PM-9PM EST), probabilities for heavier activity accompanied by
restrictions increase, particularly near/east of I-95. Thunder
chances, while notable, remained a bit too low to include in the
PROB30s for this evening, but will be re-evaluated in future
cycles. AMDs may be needed through tonight as confidence in
placement of heavier activity increases. Of note, MRB may be
spared most of the shower activity or lower CIGs as the cold
front likely stalls far enough to their east tonight through
Friday, more likely affecting the metros down to CHO.

Winds will shift to the west, northwest, and north rather
gradually as the front slowly crosses tonight into Friday. The
front may even briefly stall near the I-95 corridor which could
lead to a period of erratic wind direction (albeit at light
speeds) early Friday morning. These light winds will likely
allow L/IFR CIGs to develop after 06Z/1AM EST tonight since low-
level moisture will linger. As the front inches southeastward
Friday, conditions will slowly lift to VFR. Winds likely
increase out of the northwest after 03Z/10PM EST Saturday as the
front makes a more pronounced push offshore and a wave low
pressure moves away up the coast.

VFR conditions are anticipated Saturday through early next week
as a cold front transitions offshore. Winds flow generally
westerly, potentially gusting up to 25 knots at times through
Monday before diminishing later in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds have been somewhat erratic in terms of
gust magnitude due to subtle differences in either vertical
mixing or channeling effects. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through early this evening prior to the approach of a
cold front. Gusts likely linger especially over the wider waters
off southern Maryland (further from the approaching front and in
a lingering slightly stronger gradient plus channeling). This
may extend a bit further north, but for now the mid bay remains
in an advisory through much of the night. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, then persist
in waves through at least midday Friday before exiting. Storms
should be largely elevated, though some sporadic gusty winds
can`t completely be ruled out. Dry conditions and gusty
northwest winds are then expected to develop Friday night and
persist into the weekend.

Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed much of the time
in west to northwest flow late Friday night through Monday in
the wake of the cold front. Additional SCAs may be needed
Tuesday in the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Peak
gusts around 30 knots are possible at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are running around 1 to 1.5 feet. Expect these
to fall after a cold front crosses Friday. Until then, this
will bring a few locations into Action stage through tonight.
Annapolis, Alexandria and Havre de Grace have the highest chance
of hitting minor flood stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>533-535>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion