710
FXUS61 KLWX 030155
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining dry with above normal temperatures, then some
  rain possible late this week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry with above normal temperatures,
then some rain possible late this week into early next week.

Clouds are still expected to trend downward in coverage
slightly overnight, but there will still be passing clouds here
and there. Cannot rule out a rogue sprinkle in the northern
Alleghenies. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s.

Upper ridging will build overhead tomorrow as high pressure
remains in place offshore. Dry conditions and above normal
temps are forecast beneath a mixture of clouds and sun. High
temps will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, and winds
will remain light out of the south. Patchy fog may be possible
tomorrow night, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry conditions and above normal temps will persist through the
daylight hours on Wed. High temps will once again reach well
into the 70s, and winds will begin to pick up slightly out of
the south. Mostly sunny skies are expected to start the day, but
high clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and
evening hours in advance of an upper trough approaching from the
west. A sw embedded within the broader trough will lift
northeastward through the Great Lakes Sun night. This system has
trended further northwest and a bit further away from the area,
but a few showers could still be possible by later Wed night.

The synoptic pattern across the eastern CONUS becomes much more
active at the end of this week, through the weekend, and into early
next week. A series of large upper troughs over the Midwest are
forecast to steadily push north and east toward the Mid-Atlantic.
One notable change over the last several model cycles is that the
initial upper trough does not pass directly through our area,
instead slides northeast across the OH Valley into PA. A weaker
shortwave ahead of the main trough does cross our region Thu,
and this lkly brings at least scattered showers and a few
tstorms. However, given that the strongest upper level support
now remains north of our area, we probably won`t be getting a
lot of precip like earlier models run depicted. Above normal
temps lkly to end the week as highs reach the upper 60s to mid
70s. More abundant cloud cover on Fri keeps temps a few degrees
lower than Thu.

The secondary upper trough and an associated cold front dig into the
Mid-Atlantic Fri afternoon into Fri night. However, it appears
this second system will be rather progressive and models
indicate the surface reflection "skipping" the Alleghenies, then
redeveloping east of I-95. If that occurs we`ll see little
precip outside of the mtns. Another hindering signal is models
indicate a potential dry slot ahead of the cold front, which
also cuts down on how much shower activity can develop.

Most of the mid-level vorticity associated with this second upper
trough cuts off over the central Great Lakes Fri night into
Sat, then pushes well to our north/east Sun. Given the recent
trends in the evolution of the synoptic pattern late this week,
the NBM PoPs are lkly way too high for Thu and Fri.

Looking ahead at Sunday into early next week, the active pattern
brings another strong trough to the region Sun night into
Mon. This system is forecast to be much larger than the
previous two, and bring colder air in its wake. Periods of
showers are possible at times on Mon, though model timing
varies so this could change in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions and light southerly winds will
continue through Wed. Some patchy fog could be possible in
spots Tue night. Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds
lkly continue into Thu, but showers or thunderstorms could lead
to sub- VFR conditions at times. Winds are forecast to shift to
out of the west on Fri, with a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected both today and
tomorrow with high pressure in place offshore. Winds will remain
out of the south for Wed and Thu, but gusts could near low-end
SCA levels during that time. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to
continue on Fri as winds shift to out of the west.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...KJP
MARINE...KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion