537
FXUS61 KLWX 301428
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warmer and more humid this afternoon with isolated
  thunderstorms possible.

- 2) Late summer heat returns this week.

- 3) Thunderstorm chances increase this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid this afternoon with
isolated thunderstorms possible.

Low clouds remain along and east of the Blue Ridge late this
morning into early this afternoon. High pressure building to
the south of the area will allow for a warmer and more unstable
air mass. A developing surface trof may be able to spark a few
thunderstorms this afternoon in an increasingly hot, humid, and
unstable air mass. Thunderstorms should dissipate quickly as we
approach sunset.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Late summer heat returns this week.

Guidance remains steadfast on late summer heat returning to end
meteorological summer (June 1-August 31) and begin meteorological
autumn (September 1-November 30).

A strong mid-level ridge will build across the southern CONUS and
into the Mid-Atlantic, then persist through at least the middle of
the week. Some guidance has been trending towards having the ridge
axis a bit further south and west, which would lower heights a bit
and introduce more chances for showers and thunderstorms at times in
large scale NW flow aloft. This lends to a bit of spread in the
temperature forecast, especially if any back-door surface cold
fronts slide into the region by mid/late week.

Despite the uncertainties, it remains likely that high temperatures
will reach the lower to middle 90s for much of the region for much
of the new work week. Latest guidance indicates potential for
temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 mid week, so long as
it is not disrupted by cloud cover or convection. Depending on
smaller scale details, dew points could end up a little higher
or lower than currently progged which will ultimately affect how
high heat index values get. Values approaching Heat Advisory
criteria (100-104 west of the Blue Ridge, 105-109 east of the
Blue Ridge) are possible.

Temperatures may begin to moderate by next weekend as a cold front
crosses the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorm chances increase this week.

Disturbances rounding a ridge to the south and west in NW flow aloft
will introduce shower and thunderstorm chances at times this
week. The timing and amplitude of these waves have very low
predictability beyond a couple days in advance (at best). But
the general theme will be enhanced lift and shear clashing with
an increasingly hot and unstable airmass over or near the Mid-
Atlantic. AI/ML guidance has broad elevated probabilities of
severe weather much of this week, particularly Tuesday through
Thursday (and possibly Friday). Guidance is currently most keen
on a shortwave impulse passing just to the north on Wednesday.

It should be noted that there is a conditional potential for
one or more organized clusters of strong to severe storms at
some point this week. The most likely time currently appears to
be around mid week, but changes are to be expected at this time
range.

Storm chances may linger into next weekend as a cold front
crosses.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs should become VFR this afternoon as isolated
thunderstorms develop, mainly west of I-95. Have a PROB30 group
for MRB and nothing elsewhere. Better chances of thunderstorms
Mon and Tue.

Episodic SHRA/TSRA (highest chc in the aftn/eve) as well as AM
fog/low clouds could bring intermittent restrictions much of
this week. Winds generally S/SW AOB 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remain in effect for this evening into early Monday for
20kt gusts in southerly channeling.

Additional bouts of channeling may be possible by mid to late
week. Chances of thunderstorms increase through the week, with
stronger and more organized storms possible especially by mid
week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion