697
FXUS61 KLWX 091428
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slow ridgetop RH recoveries later tonight into Tuesday morning
along the ridges. Otherwise, we have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory for the central Chesapeake Bay and the Tangier Sound
area until 11am. We have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for
Lower Tidal Potomac and portions of the central Chesapeake Bay
and adjacent Patuxent. Fire weather section still has fire
weather- specific details, though no hazards are expected to be
issued this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Well above normal temperatures for first half of week.
- 2) A strong midweek cold front will bring a significant drop
in temperatures by Thursday, along with gusty winds and
widespread shower/thunderstorm chances throughout the region.
- 3) A second cold front could bring additional gusty conditions
and persistent cooler temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Well above normal temperatures for first half of week.
As of 10am, temperatures are already 5 to 7 degrees above
average for early March. We should continue to see temperatures
rise through the 60s and into the lower to middle 70s (through
the 50s and into the lower 60s in the mountains in the west).
Plenty of sunshine through the rest of the day and again on
Tuesday. Temperatures will become above average again on
Tuesday, while dry conditions persist. Above average
temperatures ahead again for Wednesday. We may be making a run
at record high temperatures by midweek. Some daily temperature
records look possible (see Climate section below for more
information).
KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong midweek cold front will bring a
significant drop in temperatures by Thursday, along with gusty winds
and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances throughout the weekend.
Minimal change has occurred since prior discussions of hazards
expected for this upcoming midweek frontal boundary. A deep upper
level trough will result in a strong surface level cold front that
will pass through the East Coast, bringing widespread chances for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Any chances
of severe weather will depend on the exact timing of the front
passing through the area, with the focus primarily on the region
west of the Blue Ridge. CSU learning machine probabilities remain in
the 15-30 percent range for all severe hazards within the region,
but currently the primary severe-based hazards are gusty winds and
heavy rains. Additionally, temperatures will likely drop between 20-
30 degrees overall, bringing some areas potentially below freezing
or borderline freezing. Gusty winds between 20-30 knots could result
in overall much colder conditions towards the end of this week
compared to the beginning of it.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A second cold front could bring additional gusty
conditions and persistent cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Once the midweek front passes through, a brief period of calmer
conditions will occur early Friday before a second cold front is
expected to pass through the region. A low centered over the Great
Lakes region will result in a frontal boundary extending southward,
resulting in a second period of gusty winds and somewhat reduced
potential for rain/showers. Depending on how cool temperatures are
by then, this could bring in a chance for wintry/snow precipitation
over the mountains. Uncertainty is still high with this event, and
additional model runs will help discerning the potential impacts
expected with this weekend system.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of
Wednesday as sunnier skies return. Clouds increase in coverage
late Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Expect periods of sub-VFR conditions across terminals Wednesday
night into Thursday, as a strong cold front brings rain showers
and thunderstorms to the area. Northwesterly winds with gusts
up to 25-35 knots are possible at terminals.
Winds should gradually decrease on Friday before picking back
up again, accompanied by a southerly wind shift as another front
passes through the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds prevail through Tuesday in a light southerly wind as
high pressure builds nearby.
SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible, especially over
the open and middle waters of the bay/tidal Potomac.
A strong cold front is expected to cross over the waters late
Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in gusty north to northwest
flow by Thursday. SCA conditions at a minimum are likely, with gusts
between 25-35 knots possible over water. Winds will briefly decrease
on Friday before picking back up again as a second front passes
through, bringing in a southerly wind shift & likely resulting in
persistent SCA conditions into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon
through Wednesday, with mostly south to southwest winds across
the area. This afternoon looks to be the driest day with
minimum RH values of 20-30 percent west of the Blue Ridge, and
30-40 percent to the east. This will be followed by a night of
poor RH recovery above 3000 feet, where RH may not recover out
of the 30s. Some isolated spots see lower RH values, especially
in the valleys out west. Additionally, southwest-facing aspects
could see wind gusts up to 20 mph.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday are forecast between 35-45 percent.
Smoke dispersion will be very good to excellent Monday and Tuesday
due to increasing transport winds.
A cold front impacts the area Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a
potential of gusty winds, wetting rain, thunderstorms, and colder
temperatures to finish out the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily high records could be tied or set Monday through Wednesday.
Wednesday is the most likely day for warm low records to be tied/set
due to cooler air arriving after midnight Wednesday night.
Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/1964 79F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 52F/2000 57F/2016 57F/2016
Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 46F/1964 59F/2016 49F/1967
Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 56F/1921 57F/2016 53F/1955
Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 78F/2000 78F/2016 74F/1967
78F/1964
Record Warm Low 58F/1921 56F/2020 52F/1986
Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 83F/1925
Record Warm Low 59F/1921 58F/2020 53F/2016
Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 78F/2021
81F/2000
Record Warm Low 49F/2000 53F/2016 49F/1955
Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 49F/2002 57F/2016 53F/2016
49F/1992
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 79F/2000 82F/2016 76F/1967
79F/1964
Record Warm Low 54F/2000 60F/2016 56F/2016
54F/1992 56F/1955
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KLW/CJL/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/KRR/SRT
MARINE...KLW/CJL/KRR/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion