455
FXUS61 KLWX 101853
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A slight decrease in rain chances across W MD/E WV this evening
into Saturday morning with a weak frontal passage. A Special
Weather Statement for elevated fire spread continues for western
Maryland and portions of eastern West Virginia through the
afternoon hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the weekend. Turning
hotter with the next potential chance of rain by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the
weekend. Turning hotter with the next potential chance of rain by
the middle of next week.
Not too much of a change in the overall dry weather pattern.
Synoptically, we continue to monitor a weak front that will pass
through the region late tonight into early Saturday. This will
be followed by a period of strong upper level ridging settling
in for the weekend into the early and middle part of next week.
No wetting rain is expected through Wednesday of next week,
outside of some showers across the Allegheny Mountains tonight
into Saturday morning. A sprinkle may make it`s way toward the
Catoctins Saturday morning with extra cloud cover along the
front as it passes through. The front will bring a notable wind
shift from the west and southwest today back to the north and
northwest Saturday. Recent model guidance with respect to this
frontal passage has decreased slightly in recent model guidance
so have kept mentions mostly limited to the Allegheny Mountains
of western Maryland and portions of eastern West Virginia. This
also tracks given the amount of low-level dry air in place
across the region in recent observations.
This will allow for tanking relative humidity values as dry
high pressure over the upper Great Lakes region moves in. Recent
model guidance indicates that minimum RHs will be 20-30% range;
however, the "floor" based on recent HREF minimum ensemble
members outline that portions of the Shenandoah Valley could dip
into the 10-20% range during the afternoon hours. That being
said, winds are not expected to be as breezy on Saturday, thus
will need to continue to monitor this aspect of the forecast in
the near-term.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this
weak cold front with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s (50s
Mountains) Saturday as the front passes through. Lows will fall
into the low to mid 40s Saturday night with highs Sunday back
into the 70s (outside western shore of Chesapeake Bay, southern
MD, and northeast MD).
A strengthening broad upper level ridge will allow temperatures
to reach into near record territory by the middle of next week.
Highs are currently forecasted to reach the upper 80s for much
of the forecast area next Tuesday, with highs in the lower 90s
currently forecasted for next Wednesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to be well aligned on the progression of this warm-up,
but some outliers remain on the low end of the deterministic
spectrum regarding the exact maximum temperatures that could be
reached.
Wetting rain chances may return with a cold front late next
week. This is due largely in part to a broad area of low
pressure over the Great Lakes that will push toward the East
Coast late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions prevailing at
all airfields through 00Z Sunday. A weak cold front will move
across the area late this evening and into Saturday morning;
however, the bulk of model guidance continues to leave the
majority of the area (outside of far W MD/E WV) dry with this
feature. The only airfield at real risk for some precipitation
mentions would be MRB; however, based on current model trends
have decided to leave them in the clear for any SHRA mentions
between 04-08Z Saturday. An increasing low-to-mid level cloud
deck will be the main interest for aviation interests with this
feature; however, more pessimistic model guidance continues to
keep lowest ceilings along the highest elevations of W MD, thus
have kept mentions above VFR thresholds. Recent NBM model
guidance continues to highlight a brief corridor of LLWS
between 03-07Z Saturday across DC/Baltimore metro airfields.
Skies begin clearing out after 12Z Saturday and through the end
of the TAF period. An increasing southwesterly wind is expected
with sustained winds between 5 to 10 knots with gusts upwards
of 15 to 20 knots increasingly possible at all airfields except
at CHO. After 00Z Sunday, some chances for precipitation will
come into the northern half of the forecast area Sunday evening
and bring some potential for sub-VFR conditions with a similar
pattern emerging on Monday and Tuesday; however, chances mainly
stay north/west of the I-81 corridor.
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs continue for most of the bay and lower tidal Potomac this
afternoon and evening within southerly channeling. SCAs have
been issued for Saturday for northerly winds behind a weak cold
frontal passage.
Small Craft Advisories are likely on Monday through Tuesday morning
as 15-20 knot winds blow from the south. Gusts up to 30 knots
possible on Monday, with stronger gusts towards the central
Chesapeake Bay. SCAs may still be needed on Tuesday morning
before winds gradually decrease to 5-10 knots south by Tuesday
night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for far western MD
and portions of eastern West Virginia through 7pm. This is due
to an elevated spread of wildfires given low relative humidity
values in the 20 to 25 percent range and wind gusts up to 25
mph.
Gradual warming and continued dry conditions are expected through
this afternoon as high pressure departs offshore. Winds will be
a touch stronger today out of the south, and could gust to
20-25 mph, particularly on the higher ridges. Conditions will
be dry once again, with min RH values in the 20s to the west of
the Blue Ridge, and upper 20s and 30s to the east of the Blue
Ridge.
Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies
tonight as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is
expected over the next several days. Gusty northerly winds will
develop behind the front Saturday morning, but may not overlap
as humidity values drop by afternoon. An SPS for elevated fire
danger may be needed for portions of the area.
Even warmer conditions are likely early next week as another area of
high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic coast with limited
rain chances through Wednesday. Expecting fuels to further dry
out in this pattern, particularly given the high amounts of
solar insolation reaching the ground over the past several days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15,
2026 timeframe:
A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.
***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960)! 63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960)! 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945)+! 67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024)+! 64F (2014)
***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941)! 65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967)! 62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941)! 65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941)! 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024)! 68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960)+! 61F (2023)+!
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/EST/NPB
AVIATION...ADS/EST/NPB
MARINE...ADS/EST
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion