716
FXUS61 KLWX 091450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes made this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy today, otherwise seasonable through Wednesday.

- 2) Much cooler conditions Thursday through Saturday, along
     with chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy today, otherwise seasonable through Wednesday.

A sfc to mid-level trough will cross the area later today with
the only sensible impacts being enhancement of NW winds, which
are expected to gust to around 35 mph. The trough lacks any
thermal or moisture gradients, so temperatures are expected to
be similar to yesterday.

A warm front will lift through the area late tonight or early
Tuesday with temperatures expected to rise 5 to 10 degs from
today, which should put some areas into the low 70s.

Generally milder conditions with less wind are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday. High temperatures each afternoon are expected to
reach well into the 60s to perhaps lower 70s (with 50s at higher
elevations). Very light winds and mainly clear skies Tuesday
night could again result in some frost. Of note, the growing
season for 2026 only remains active east of US-15 as of this
morning, so no further frost/freeze headlines will be issued
west of there until spring of 2027.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler conditions Thursday through Saturday, along with
chances for precipitation.

Model guidance is in very good agreement that a very deep trough
will dig southward across the Eastern half of the CONUS late in the
week. There continues to be pretty good agreement that a longwave
pattern with troughing in the East and ridging in the West will set
up within the Polar Jet stream, while the subtropical jet looks to
also become active across the southeastern CONUS. The big point of
contention is how exactly all of these features are going to
interact with one another when it comes to impacts in our area.

In terms of sensible weather, clouds will be on the increase on
Thursday as the upper trough digs to our west. Despite the increase
in cloud cover, temperatures are still forecast to be seasonable as
we`ll be in the warm advection ahead of a developing low. Highs are
generally expected to be in the in the upper 50s and lower 60s. An
area of low pressure is expected to form downstream of the digging
trough, but there`s still some spread with respect to where exactly
it will form and how it will track. There is also the biggest
question of if cold air will be in place ahead of this system, or
will it lag behind. In mid-November, that can be very hard to
achieve outside of the mountains, so that will be something to
really keep an eye on as we get closer to this system occurring.
Further east, right now the pattern seems to favor a rainy solution
Thursday into Friday, and that is reflected in most of the recent
model guidance and their respective ensembles.

At any rate, the upper low that will pivot over the region late
Friday and into this weekend and bring in a substantially
cooler air mass in to the region. It is not out of the question
to get some rain/snow showers further east into Saturday morning
under the upper low, but as of now, am not expecting any
impactful accumulations.

The Alleghenies will have the greatest chance for accumulating snow,
but even there, there`s still considerable spread, due to the
uncertainty in the finer scale details within the trough and the
ultimate track/strength of the low. On the back side of the system
though, there seems to be a decent shot at some lingering upslope
snow showers even into Saturday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main impact today will be gusty NW winds up to 30 kt,
diminishing to less than 10 kt tonight. Winds shift to W Tue,
albeit much lighter.

Winds will turn easterly on Thursday and then eventually northerly
Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected for most of the day
Thursday, but some restrictions are possible in periods of rain. Sub-
VFR conditions appear increasingly possible by Thursday night as
ceilings start to lower. Sub-VFR conditions could linger through
most of Friday as a complex somewhat uncertain low pressure system
meanders in the area or just to the east. Rain and possibly snow
flakes could aid in sub-VFR conditions. Wind would likely become
more northwesterly as the low pressure moves to the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SCA event expected today with NW winds gusting to around
30 kt. Lighter winds expected Tue and Wed.

Wind will become easterly on Thursday and then northerly Thursday
night. Small Craft Advisory level winds appear possible in northerly
flow Thursday night.

Winds will become more northwesterly and gusty Friday as low
pressure moves to the east and southeast. Small craft advisories are
likely, and Gale-force winds look quite possible as well in strong
cold advection in northwest flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion