041
FXUS61 KLWX 060747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast overnight as we
continue to monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm risk for
this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A passing cold front brings beneficial rainfall this
 morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm chances this
 afternoon.

- 2) Daily chances of showers & thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A passing cold front brings beneficial rainfall this
 morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm chances this
 afternoon.

A cold front is expected to slowly track from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area throughout today. Light stratiform rain
overspreads the area this morning before exiting to the southeast
early this afternoon. Later this afternoon and into the evening,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary as
it tracks across the area. SPC has the entire area, with the
exception of Garrett county, in a general thunderstorm outlook with
any chances of severe weather remaining uncertain. The biggest
hindrance in severe development will be CAPE and how much
destabilization occurs in the wake of morning stratiform
rainfall. However, there will be plenty of shear as an upper
level jet pivots overhead. The best conditions for thunderstorm
development are east of the Blue Ridge as the front tracks
across the metros.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily chances of showers & thunderstorms this
weekend.

An upper level atmospheric perturbation results in a shortwave
trough moving through the area on Saturday, where a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon & evening. Temperatures
start to creep back up into the 70s and low 80s this weekend, before
another cold front moves in from the Great Lakes, bringing
additional rain and thunderstorms starting Sunday afternoon and into
Monday. NCAR`s AI Medium-Range convective hazards forecast currently
has the region included in its 5%-15% probability for severe weather
during this event, but will have to see how far north or south the
low is tracking by then.

High pressure moves into the region on Tuesday, bringing drier air
and clearing skies early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratiform rain moves into the area from northwest to southeast this
morning with reduced ceilings and visiblities expected. MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions are expected beginning around 15Z and
persisting through the early afternoon. Stratiform rain showers
move out early in the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Thunderstorms and
lingering light rain showers are represented in PROB30 groups
across all terminals. Precipitation moves out Thursday afternoon
with dry conditions expected through Friday.

Winds shift to north/northwest behind the front and are
expected to remain light, blowing 5 to 10 knots with gusts near
15 knots in the afternoon. Winds shift to southerly on Friday.

Southerly winds temporarily shift west as a shortwave trough
meanders through Saturday night, before shifting south again Sunday
morning. Expect periods of sub-VFR conditions across terminals on
both Saturday & Sunday as showers and thunderstorms move through the
region during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect 6PM this evening as south
winds gust up to 25 knots. A cold front moves across the waters late
this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are possible as
the front passes through which may lead to SMWs needing to be
issued. In the wake of the front, winds shift to north/northwesterly
and are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday.

Southerly winds gust near SCA criteria on Saturday before
diminishing in the evening. Winds stay below SCA criteria for
most of the day Sunday, but increase to potential SCA thresholds
later that evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion