751
FXUS61 KLWX 111849
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
249 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories were extended through the mid-afternoon
across the southern waters. Upgraded to a Freeze Warning along
the Allegheny Front, with Frost Advisories eastward to much of
the Shenandoah Valley. For today`s temperatures, lowered the
forecast slightly closer to the I-64 corridor given ongoing
cloud cover and lingering light rain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool with lingering light rain for southern areas through
this afternoon, followed by a late season frost/freeze west of
the Blue Ridge tonight.
2) Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
3) After another cool down, above average temperatures return
for the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool with lingering light rain for southern
areas through this afternoon, followed by a late season
frost/freeze west of the Blue Ridge tonight.
The cold front which moved through last evening is now across
the Outer Banks of North Carolina down into the southeastern
U.S. However, anafrontal light rains persist along the I-64
corridor across the Northern Neck of Virginia into southern
Maryland. While bright banding is contributing to some
enhancements on the radar mosiac, 6-hour rainfall totals are
averaging around 0.20 to 0.30 inches. While this axis of rain
has shifted southward in time, extensive mid/high clouds extend
across most areas along and east of the Shenandoah Valley.
However, visible satellite trends show drier air moving in from
the Allegheny Front. Consequently, expect increasing sunshine
from west to east this afternoon. This should help offset the
cool start to the first half of the day. Temperatures currently
holding steady in the 50s should push into the low 60s over the
next hour or two. The dry nature of the air mass should also
yield a quick cool down into the evening and night.
A surface anticyclone initially over the Great Lakes is forecast
to push toward the Mid-Atlantic region tonight. Dew points are
likely to fall given the continued cool/dry advection. The
pattern is supportive of a rather chilly night ahead, especially
for those west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. In these regimes of
clear skies and calm winds under high pressure, model guidance
can be notoriously too warm. Consequently, have lowered
temperatures and dew points accordingly which would be
supportive of a rather widespread frost/freeze. Tonight`s lows
are likely to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s along the
Alleghenies where Freeze Warnings are in place from 1 AM-8 AM.
Off to the east, much of the Shenandoah Valley is in a Frost
Advisory as lows drop into the mid 30s. For those with outdoor
vegetation or sensitive plants, ensure to take ample precautions
to protect them from this late season chill. All frost/freeze
products expire by 8 AM Tuesday before temperatures warm quickly
underneath sunny skies. This will set the stages for a return to
the upper 60s to mid 70s which is accompanied by dry conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
A broad shortwave currently tracking across southern portions of
Alberta and Saskatchewan will be the next weather maker across
the region. Height falls accompanying this system push through
on Wednesday evening which drives the next cold front across the
Mid-Atlantic states. Although forcing and vertical shear are
fairly impressive for mid-May, the degree of buoyancy is much
more questionable. The latest model guidance indicates deep-
layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots, but with instability
running closer to 250 J/kg. This latter artifact of the forecast
is largely driven by the limited moisture advecting into the
region. On Wednesday morning, surface dew points are forecast to
only be in the 40s, but could spike into the low/mid 50s with
continued southerly warm/moist advection. As it stands, the
Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) across areas west of the Blue Ridge. Damaging
wind gusts would be the main threat given steepening low-level
lapse rates with daytime heating. Any severe component to these
storms should diminish by later in the evening. Some showers and
a few rumbles of thunderstorm may persist into the first half of
the overnight hours.
KEY MESSAGE 3...After another cool down, above average
temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.
A fairly typical springtime pattern continues through late in
the work week as temperatures rise and fall with frontal
passages. The earlier mid-week trough is expected to close off
in the vicinity of the upper Mid-Atlantic to southern New
England on Thursday. Not only will this keep temperatures cooler
with some enhanced cloud cover, scattered mountain showers look
possible during the daytime hours. This barreling closed low
slowly pulls away from the New England coast by early Friday
which results in diminishing shower chances. Continued
northwesterly flow will keep temperatures to near to below
average though.
A trailing longwave ridge moves in for Saturday while flattening
in time as a trough pushes across southern Ontario. However, net
height/thickness increases will support the start of a marked
warming trend by Saturday. Low-level winds shift to west to
southwesterly over the weekend which aids in the shift to warmer
weather. Widespread low/mid 80s are expected for Saturday before
nearing the 90 degree mark on Sunday. For the mountains, 70s
would be more commonplace. Box-and-whisker plots show the
potential of further warming into early next week, but with some
building spread. Any low-end shower and thunderstorm chances
appear more terrain driven and likely will be disorganized
underneath the upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While KCHO could see a few lingering restrictions due to low
ceilings, which should abate in the next couple of hours as
drier air moves in from the west. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions at all terminals through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. Some patchy fog could materialize near
KCHO, but have kept the forecast conservative with a 4 SM
visibility in the TAF. Winds largely remain on the variable side
before turning more northwesterly this afternoon. Expect winds
to turn light overnight underneath high pressure.
VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday with a return to light
southeries for the second half of the day. Wednesday has the
potential to be a bit more active with the approach of the next
system. Some restrictions are possible during the
afternoon/evening hours. This comes with a background south-
southwesterly wind which could gust to around 20 to 25 knots.
The cold front tracks through late Wednesday which brings an end
to any showers.
Expect VFR conditions for Thursday and Friday with a prevailing
northwesterly wind. Afternoon gusts each day could push into the
20 to 25 knot range depending on how tight gradients end up
being. Dry weather continues into Saturday with a shift to
southwesterlies.
&&
.MARINE...
While Small Craft Advisories were extended until 4 PM this
afternoon across the southern waters, current buoy observations
suggest these could end earlier. Otherwise, expect winds to
remain on the lighter side (5 to 10 knot gusts) through early
Tuesday. The next chance for any Small Craft Advisories would be
late Tuesday into all of Wednesday due to southerly channeling
effects. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be commonplace across a
majority of the waters. Some late afternoon to evening
convection could impact the waters as the cold front approaches
from the west. Any stronger storm may require Special Marine
Warnings.
Winds shift to west-northwesterly early Thursday behind the cold
front. Expected winds should stay below advisory levels as this
occurs. Northwesterlies persist into Thursday and Friday which
may require Small Craft Advisories at times.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Expect a gradual uptick in water levels ahead of the mid-week
system. The influence of increasing southerlies will carry the
tidal forecast to Action at Annapolis during times of high tide.
The Stevens ensemble shows the potential for Minor tidal
flooding by early Thursday. Expect anomalies to fall thereafter
as winds shift to northwesterly.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ501-509-
510.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ502.
VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>027.
WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-503-
505-506.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ050-051-
055-502-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO
AVIATION...BRO
MARINE...BRO
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion