592
FXUS61 KLWX 162003
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
303 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A second cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic tonight. A wave
of low pressure will pass near our area Tuesday into Wednesday.
There is moderate uncertainty in terms of a low pressure system
impacting us later this week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
West to northwest winds continue to gust 30 to 45 mph across a
large area late this afternoon. This gusty wind will usher in
dry air through tonight and some colder air as well. Wind
Advisories and Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through the
next couple of hours. See the Fire Weather section below for
more details on the Red Flag Warnings. Temperatures will hold
steady for another hour or so before treking downward through
tonight. Winds will gradually subside tonight as high pressure
starts nosing into the region. Lows tonight will drop into the
middle 20s in the mountains to the lower to middle 30s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the region Monday and Monday
night. Dry conditions expected through the period with a gusty
breeze persisting through the day Monday. Monday looks drier
than Sunday, but wind magnitudes may not be nearly as high as
Sunday in many places across the west and north. Therefore, a
fire weather threat may exist and could lead to an Special
Weather Statement, but not so much a Red Flag Warning.
A wave of low pressure is expected to quickly move near our
region late Monday night through Tuesday night. It will be fast
moving so any precipitation should be generally light to
occasionally moderate and may not add much help toward our
persistent drought conditions. Many places that do encounter
precipitation will receive rainfall. There are a few isolated
locations west of the Shenandoah Valley and along the higher
elevations of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge that could see a
mix of rain and snow or a wintry mix. Amounts would be light but
might just be enough to slow travel at elevations above 2500
feet in the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain should largely by gone Wednesday morning as the wave of low
pressure moves off the coast. In its wake, an east-west frontal zone
will be left behind. High pressure will be building east from the
Great Lakes and will eventually wedge down the Appalachians. Even
though precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday will be minimal
(perhaps some drizzle), there will be plenty of cloud cover.
High temperatures will be below normal Wednesday, and suspect
guidance may be too quick in warming them up Thursday.
A split flow pattern will have a trough moving across the northern
Plains and a closed low ejecting out of the desert southwest. There
remains a lot of uncertainty on how these troughs will interact,
which will impact the next chance of rain. Ensemble guidance shows
large spreads in temperature and rain chances from Thursday night
through Saturday. That timing will likely be narrowed a bit, but
Friday is the best opportunity for rain as the northern stream
trough makes its closest approach. Assuming a low passes to the
west, the frontal zone will lift back northward and allow some
warmer air to move in Friday. However, exact forecast details are
likely to change. One thing more certain is that there should be
enough warm air for just rain, even in the mountains. It`s unclear
whether the front will push all the way through by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will continue to gust 25 to 35 knots for another couple of
hours before diminishing later in the evening.
Monday will be breezy as well with 20-30 knot gusts likely.
High pressure building in Monday night will cause winds to
become much lighter. Precip ahead of an approaching low pressure
wave should spread over the area Tuesday resulting in sub-VFR.
Uncertainty increases Wednesday through Friday as high pressure
builds to the north and a frontal zone potentially lingers near by.
Sub-VFR ceilings are possible in onshore flow. Precipitation will be
limited to possible drizzle Wednesday and Thursday, with higher rain
chances Friday ahead of the next low pressure system.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds leading to gale conditions into much of this
evening. Afterwards, winds will gradually subside. A few gale
gusts are possible Monday, but wind should generally be in the
upper SCA range. Winds go light Monday night into Tuesday as a
wave of low pressure approaches from the west. This wave of low
pressure will bring rain chances to the waters mid week.
Wednesday through Thursday should have sub-SCA conditions as high
pressure builds to the north. An advisory may be needed Friday if a
warm front can lift north and southerly winds take hold.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very gusty winds through the next three to four hours. Gusts of
35 to 45 mph more likely widespread into the early evening
before diminishing later this evening. Strong dry air
advection, minimum relative humidity values have lead to critical
ranges this afternoon. Values in the teens across central VA,
with 20-30 percent likely further north and west, and 30-50
percent near the PA border.
RH recoveries will be poor tonight, especially over higher
elevations where winds likely remain elevated (30-45 mph gusts).
Monday will be a bit drier but also a bit less windy. However,
near critical fire weather conditions are possible once again.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-501>510.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
for MDZ008.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ013-014-
016>018-503>506.
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-053-
054-503>506-508.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-
036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>533-537-
539>541.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
for ANZ530>533-537-539>541.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ534-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ534-
543.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-536-538-
542.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday
for ANZ535-536-538-542.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...DHOF/KLW
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion