554
FXUS61 KLWX 291842
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warmer and more humid Sunday with isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms.

- 2) Late summer heat, thunderstorm chances return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid Sunday with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

High pressure to the northeast will move offshore tonight into
Sunday. A stray shower or rumble of thunder could develop over
parts of the Appalachians late this afternoon into this evening;
otherwise, conditions will be dry. Dry and seasonable
conditions will become more humid with warmer temperatures on
Sunday. A southerly return flow will bring in this more humid
airmass; thus, setting the moisture ingredient in the
development of a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.
A weak disturbance arriving from the west-northwest on Sunday
could be the trigger needed for such convection Sunday afternoon
and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late summer heat, thunderstorm chances return
next week.

Confidence remains high that summertime heat returns to the region
for most of next week as a strong mid-level ridge builds across the
southern CONUS. Uncertainty remains on exactly where the ridge is
positioned come the middle of next week, but it certainly looks like
we will have highs in the 90s Monday through Thursday and heat
indices between 95-105. Wednesday looks to be hottest day at this
time, with potential for heat advisories across portions of the
Shenandoah Valley and across the DC and Baltimore metro areas into
Southern MD. The main caveat for heat impacts is timing of expected
rounds of convection as MCSs move through/near the region, and any
potential backdoor fronts that could slide in late in the week.

Disturbances rounding a ridge will steadily move from the Great
Lakes to Mid-Atlantic for most of next week. The timing and
amplitude of these waves have very low predictability beyond a
couple days in advance (at best). However, the general theme will be
enhanced lift and shear clashing with an increasingly hot and
unstable airmass over or near the Mid-Atlantic. AI/ML guidance has
broad elevated probabilities of severe weather much of next week,
though focus appears to be shifting to Wednesday and Thursday.
Again, timing is going to be a big determining factor in whether any
severe weather occurs in the forecast area.

It should be noted that there is a conditional potential for one or
more organized clusters of strong to severe storms at some point
next week. The most likely time currently appears to be around mid
week, but changes are to be expected at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through Sunday night. Isolated t-storms possible
Sunday afternoon and early evening.

VFR conditions are likely to prevail across the area for most of
next week. The main impacts to the terminals will come from any
organized clusters of thunderstorms that move across the region.
These systems have little predictability this far out.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions possible again Sunday night into Monday morning
in southerly channeling.

Favorable marine conditions expected through most of next week.
Southerly channeling at times during the week could result in SCA
conditions for parts of the waters. Expect clusters of thunderstorms
to move across the waters at times during the week, but
predictability of exactly when this will occur is low at this time.
Special Marine Warnings are certainly going to be needed for any
strong to severe thunderstorm that crosses the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KLW/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion