023
FXUS61 KLWX 090211
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front approaches on
Friday but will be overtaken by a cold front Friday night. This
front will stall overhead as low pressure tracks along it on
Saturday. A pair of cold fronts will push through Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure builds to the south of the region
early next week. Another frontal system approaches from the west
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The early evening surface analysis places a stalled boundary
along the southeastern U.S. coast. This adjoins a warm front
that arcs across the Tennessee Valley eventually to a low
pressure center over southern Iowa. In advance of the upstream
longwave trough, high clouds continue to overspread the Mid-
Atlantic region this evening. Some radar returns are evident
across northeastern West Virginia. As such, have added a chance
for rain showers along the Allegheny Front into western Maryland
for the next 2 to 3 hours.

An array of cirrus clouds will continue to track through the
region overnight, some of which may be accompanied by some
breaks. The timing of any such breaks in the clouds could
impact temperatures and allow them to drop into the lower 30s.
Otherwise readings will mainly be in the upper 30s and lower
40s. Likewise, some patchy fog could develop if there are
sufficient breaks in the clouds. By the second half of the
night, a low level jet will start to spread into the area ahead
of a low pressure system moving into the upper Great Lakes. This
could result in some 35-40 mph gusts in the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure continues northeast from the Great Lakes on
Friday, a warm front will attempt to lift into the area. At the
same time, some low level moisture will advect in from the
southwest, which could result in low clouds developing. There is
still considerable model disagreement on if and where these
clouds develop. Any persistent low level clouds during peak
heating (which hi-res guidance suggests will be east of the Blue
Ridge) could limit temperatures to the lower to mid 50s.
Especially west of the Blue Ridge, the stronger southerly winds
aloft will be more likely to mix down, and some locations will
likely reach the lower to mid 60s. As the airmass saturates, a
band of showers will gradually progress eastward across the area
coincident with the low level jet between late morning and early
evening.

The cold front trailing the low will move in from the northwest
during the evening. A band of showers will likely be ongoing
along the front, but may largely fall apart crossing the
mountains. Thus most areas should see some dry time during the
evening. The cold front will eventually stall, although there
is still a lot of disagreement about how far southward it will
do so. Meanwhile, low pressure will lift out of the lower
Mississippi Valley. Overrunning moisture ahead of this system,
combined with seasonably high precipitable water values, will
result in a widespread rainfall spreading into the area late
Friday night into Saturday. The low itself will track across the
area late Saturday afternoon. Most of the area is expected to
receive between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of beneficial rainfall by the
time rain exits Saturday night. Can`t rule out a few embedded
thunderstorms as the low makes its closest approach; however the
deeper convection will most likely remain south of the area.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on the frontal position,
which has trended farther south with recent model runs. Parts of
the area will likely remain in the 40s, while 60s could still
occur across the south. However, that might not occur until
toward evening as the low itself draws the front northward.

The first cold front will likely cross the area the second half
of Saturday night as a second low splits off toward Toronto.
This will bring rain to an end east of the Alleghenies, although
some upslope precipitation may continue at times. This precip could
change over to snow by daybreak Sunday. Westerly winds will
increase behind the front, especially in the higher elevations.
However, gusts should remain below advisory criteria through
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Synoptic pattern will feature an UL ridge in the west and trough in
the east through much of the long term. To start the long term, a
positively tilted trough will reside over the Great Lakes Sunday
before moving eastward. This will bring a secondary cold front to
the region. Expect some rain showers east of the Alleghenies, which
may mix with some graupel looking at soundings. In the Alleghenies,
a rain/snow mix or all snow is expected. Accumulations look to
generally be light (less than 2") at this time. Forecast highs are
likely to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, with upper 20s to 30s
across the mountains. Gusty winds accompany this pattern shift with
westerly gusts to around 25 to 35 mph, nearing 45 mph along the
Allegheny Front. Wind fields remain elevated into Sunday night with
lows falling into the 20s (mid/upper teens for the Alleghenies)
which will make wind chills feel notably cooler.

Continued NW flow persists Monday with the aforementioned trough
moving offshore. This will result in a drier pattern through early
next week with high pressure generally staying south of the area
through Wednesday. Coldest day will be Monday, with highs close to
climo average (upper 30s to mid 40s, 20s to 30s for the mountains).
Gradual warming trend through midweek. Another system enters at the
very end of the week, potentially bringing rain/snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As high pressure departs to the east, VFR conditions will prevail
through tonight with light southeast or south winds.

There remains a lot of uncertainty for Friday`s forecast in
several aspects. Most notably, to what extent low clouds will
spread into the area during the afternoon. Favored the HREF
guidance which brings MVFR to IFR ceilings east of the Blue
Ridge. These clouds and the extent of vertical mixing will
determine the speed of south to southeast winds as well (less
than 10 kt vs. gusts to around 20 kt). Lighter and/or backed
surface winds could also result in some LLWS as a low level jet
slowly pivots across the area...affecting MRB during the early
morning and the metro terminals during the late afternoon/early
evening. Again, favored this scenario in the TAFs given the less
mixing scenario. A band of light rain showers will also
progress across the area during the afternoon and early evening
which could reduce visibility at times.

There may be a break in rain and lower ceilings (along with a
wind shift to the NW) during the evening and early overnight as
a cold front pushes into the area but likely stalls out to the
south. However, an extended period of sub-VFR ceilings will
develop/persist through Saturday and Saturday evening, along
with light to moderate rain, as low pressure rides along the
boundary. Some embedded convection can`t be ruled out,
especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Improving conditions
should occur the second half of Saturday night as the
associated cold front moves through.

Restrictions possible in any showers Sunday, but otherwise VFR. Main
story will be the gusty NW winds with gusts to 25-30 kts over the
terminals. Subsiding some overnight, but remaining elevated. Skies
clear out Monday with VFR conditions. Winds stay elevated out of the
NW with gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south/southeast winds will continue through tonight as
high pressure over the area moves offshore. Southerly winds
will increase by Friday afternoon. However, am not certain
there will be enough atmospheric mixing to result in stronger
advisory level gusts. The highest chance of this occurring may
be over the middle/upper tidal Potomac. Winds likely relax and
shift to the northwest Friday night as a cold front pushes into
the area. This front will stall out through Saturday. Low
pressure will ride along the boundary Saturday, bringing rain,
shifting winds, and possibly fog (as high dew points move over
the cooler waters). As the low makes its closest approach,
Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the waters
Saturday afternoon and evening. The associated cold front will
move through late Saturday night. Post frontal westerly winds
could reach advisory levels early Sunday morning.

W/NW winds will increase behind a secondary cold front Sunday. This
will result in widespread SCA conditions with localized GLW
possible. Winds become more NW`ly by Monday and remain near SCA
levels through the afternoon. Winds drop off thereafter.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS/BRO
NEAR TERM...ADS/BRO
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion