635
FXUS61 KLWX 121901
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low pressure, moving across southern Great Lakes into
southeastern Canada Thursday, will drag a strong front
through the region late week. Showers will be followed by wind
and cold.
- 2) Relatively dry & very warm conditions to begin the work
week before chances for showers and a thunderstorms return by
Wednesday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure, moving across southern Great Lakes
into southeastern Canada Thursday, will drag a strong front
through the region late week. Showers will be followed by wind
and cold.
Low pressure will move from the central Plains into the southern
Great Lakes Thursday, then into southeastern Canada Thursday
night, before pushing into southeastern Canada Friday. A midweek
cold front that could bring a few showers or a rumble of
thunder to parts of the region will stall before pushing northward
as a warm front and connect to the aforementioned low pressure
system that will move into southeast Canada. As both the warm
front and low pressure push north and northeastward mid- late
week, a strong cold front extending from the low will push
rapidly through the region. Noticeably colder air will push in
behind the cold front and spread throughout the region Friday
night into Saturday. Increased chances of precipitation will
accompany this complex system. The warm front may bring higher
rain chances along the Mason-Dixon and northern areas. The low
will stay to our north; however, the strong cold front will
bring another round of showers and perhaps some thunder to any
parts of our region late in the week. There may be enough cold
air and moisture with cold frontal passage that rain showers may
mix with snow showers at the highest elevations of western
Maryland and northeastern West Virginia Friday night into early
Saturday. Little to no snow accumulations expected at this time.
High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions the remainder
of the day Saturday and through Sunday. Northwest winds could
gust 20 to 30 mph with as much as 40 mph in higher elevations
behind the strong cold front. Wind headlines may be needed late
week into the early half of the weekend.
In terms of temperatures, most areas from the Mason-Dixon and
south to just north of US 33 could feel the affects of the
midweek cold front and have temperatures near average on
Thursday. Areas into the Virginia Piedmont and central
Shenandoah Valley could have above average temperatures as they
will be south of the front. Temperatures will be primarily in
the middle to upper 60s. All areas should feel the affect of a
surging warm front where temperatures warm up into middle to
upper 70s on Friday. This, of course, will be right before the
strong cold front plunges southward and drops our temperatures
from the middle 70s to the middle 40s over a 12 hour period into
early Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday could struggle to
reach 60 degrees anywhere. As a matter of fact, highs in the
mountains could only reach the upper 30s to middle 40s. Sunday
may only be a few degrees milder with highs reaching the upper
50s in the west and north and near 60 elsewhere.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Relatively dry & very warm conditions to begin
the work week before chances for showers and a thunderstorms
return by Wednesday evening.
As remnants from Isaias fully clear out of our region today, mid-
level ridging builds over the region through the middle of the week.
High pressure and southwesterly surface winds lead to mostly dry and
sunny conditions Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Daytime temperatures
raise into the low to mid 80s both days, well above average for mid-
October.
Wednesday afternoon, a surface high over the Dakotas slides westward
over the Great Lakes, nudging a low pressure system over the Ohio
River Valley south into Kentucky and West Virginia. Northwesterly
winds off of this high slowly advances a cold front southwards
before stalling out in Virginia. A few showers and thunderstorms
could form Wednesday afternoon as the warm front associated with the
low over the Tennessee Valley slides northward into our area. With
this stalled front lingering in the area, showers and thunderstorms
remain possible across our forecast area through Thursday evening.
The best chances for showers and thunderstorms lies west of the Blue
Ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast to return. Northwest winds will
diminish this evening. As ceilings continue to lift and cloud cover
wanes, all terminals are expected to reach VFR conditions by
this evening. With high pressure building, VFR conditions are
expected to last through Wednesday morning. Northwesterly winds
turn southerly tomorrow with gusts ranging around 10-15kts
tomorrow afternoon. Winds slightly weaken Wednesday turning east
to southeasterly Wednesday morning.
Primarily VFR conditions expected Thursday. A nearby front
brings a slight chance of precipitation to MRB and CHO where
restrictions are possible. On Friday, sub- VFR conditions are
possible across all terminals as a cold front moves across the
forecast area, bringing precipitation. Additionally, south winds
in the morning shift to northwesterly by the evening gusting 20
to 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
As winds continue to quickly weaken, Small Craft Advisories will
conclude this afternoon. Northwesterly winds today turn southerly
tomorrow with gusts approaching SCA criteria over the Chesapeake Bay
in the afternoon hours. This southerly channeling effects subside
Wednesday as gusts will remain below 15kts and shift out of the
southeast.
North/northeast winds on Thursday shift to southerly on Friday
morning before shifting to northwest Friday afternoon. Winds near
SCA criteria on Thursday with advisories possible across the open
waters. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the west
and low pressure in the NE will bring gusty winds on Friday. SCA
conditions are expected with near gale force winds possible Friday
night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-
534-537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion