102
FXUS61 KLWX 130824
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
324 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No substantial changes were made to the snowfall forecast for
the mountains over the next couple of days.

Made substantial edits to the Marine Discussions, including the
extension of ongoing Small Craft Advisories.

Added a short fire weather discussion to touch on breezy
conditions and lower RHs in the coming days. See below for
details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) First snowfall for parts of the Alleghenies with spotty
  showers & brisk conditions elsewhere through Saturday.

- 2) Below normal temperatures and dry condtions are expected
  Monday and Tuesday before a warm up occurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... First snowfall for parts of the Alleghenies with
spotty showers & brisk conditions elsewhere through Saturday.

Latest surface analyses and satellite data depict low pressure
moving well off to our northeast and occluding off the NJ/NY
coast. Mosaic radar imagery depicts some showers moving out of
southeastern PA into NJ at this time, which is pretty in line
with most model guidance at the moment. A broad upper low sits
to our north, with numerous pieces of upper-level energy
rotating about it`s axis. There is also some lingering moisture
impacting western Highland and Pendleton counties in the form of
some light snow showers, where and SPS is in effect through
daybreak. This activity will come to an end by mid-morning as
the moisture source for this gets cut off.

One of these pieces of energy moves through later this morning,
and interacts with the aforementioned occluding boundary
offshore. This may be enough to throw some showers back into
northeast MD on the back side of the departing low. Otherwise,
most areas likely stay mostly dry for much of the day. As flow
turns more northwesterly aloft throughout the day, we start to
get a bit more of a connection to the moisture source off the
Great Lakes moving towards the Allegheny Front. This will lead
to another round of upslope snow shower activity by tonight into
early Saturday. These will of course be maximized at elevations
above 2000 feet and in particular the upslope favored zones of
western Garrett, western Pendleton, and western Grant counties.
If travel disruptions were to materializes, expect impacts to
US-219 from the MD/PA line to WV line, US-48 from Mount Storm,
WV west to Davis, WV, and US-33 west of Franklin, WV. Snow
accumulations will remain on the order of a coating to 2" with
the greater probabilities of 1-2" with localized 3" amounts
above 3000 feet pending any squalls/streamers (mainly late
Friday night through Saturday midday).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures and dry condtions are
expected Monday and Tuesday before a warm up occurs.

Heights will start rising Monday as the amplified upper level
patterns slowly progresses eastward. Winds should be much less
noticeable by Monday and Tuesday as the surface high finally reaches
the Mid Atlantic, although temperatures remain below normal. Given
the lighter winds, the subsequent nights could turn out colder in
many areas, with widespread near or below freezing temperatures
outside of the urban centers and tidal shoreline. Since this will be
more than two weeks after the average first freeze, no frost/freeze
headlines will be issued.

Further upper level amplification will likely happen toward mid
week. While a trough or low could develop toward the southeast
coast, it appears that ridging will dominate the Mid Atlantic,
maintaining dry conditions through next week. The ridging will also
lead to a warming trend, with high temperatures rising back into the
60s for many areas Wednesday and especially Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upslope showers will continue over the mountains tonight before
changing to snow showers later today into Saturday. Expect a
brief period of MVFR CIGs at IAD and DCA throughout the morning
and early afternoon hours, but that should lift just after noon
at the latest. As for BWI and MTN, those MVFR CIGs could be off
and on through much of the day, and some showers can`t even be
ruled out (mainly at MTN). All of this will also be paired with
pretty consistent 20 to 25 knot wind gusts throughout the
daytime hours. That will taper off into the evening hours
though.

Sub-VFR conditions will remain over the mountains through
Saturday as upslope snow showers continue.

Gusts will be out the northwest yet again on Saturday as cold
air advection funnels in. BKN-OVC stratocumulus deck is expected
each afternoon through Sunday. Northwest winds on Sunday blow
around 10 knots with gusts between 15 and 20 knots expected.
Winds diminish overnight with light northwest winds expected on
Monday. VFR conditions and light winds are then expected Monday
and Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waters through this
evening as winds strengthen in the wake of yesterday`s frontal
passage. Over the open waters, wind gusts of 30 knots are
expected, with 20 to 25 knots elsewhere. Winds will taper off
over the Potomac overnight before picking up again on Saturday.
As such, SCAs were dropped there tonight, but then they are in
effect again all day Saturday. Winds may diminish some on
Sunday, but gusts up to 20 knots remain possible, so SCAs likely
will be needed for portions of the waters, if not all of them,
yet again.

Northwest winds will weaken Sunday night into Monday as high
pressure approaches, but marginal advisory conditions may
continue through the day. Sub- advisory winds are likely by
Monday night and Tuesday as the high builds overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Over the next several days, breezy conditions will continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the
valleys. Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps
closer to the upper 20s in the typical dry spots in the valleys
out west following frontal passages. Given recent fire activity
in the past several days, there could be some issues each
afternoon when winds peak and RHs drop to their lowest. Winds
will begin to taper off early next week, but RHs will remain
low, and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not be
surprised if early next week has a day that needs closer
attention as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion