820
FXUS61 KLWX 251902
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
302 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Breezy conditions and well above normal temperatures are
expected Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor water
levels in the Chesapeake Bay during high tide Thursday afternoon
for possible minor coastal flooding at sensitive locations.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong cold front brings showers and some thunderstorms
Thursday evening into Friday.
- 2) Below average temperatures return this weekend before
another warm up ensues next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front brings showers and some
thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday.
High pressure continues to move offshore through Thursday as a
strong cold front approaches from the OH Valley. Return flow on the
backside of the high will strengthen southerly flow on Thursday. This
is going to cause temps to reach well above normal, in the mid to
upper 70s across the area (with upper 60s to 70F in the mountains).
An upper trough from the Great Lakes will slide south toward the
area Thursday, with an associated cold front also pushing south from
the OH Valley/PA Thursday evening into Thursday night. The cold
front is likely to lose much of its upper support as the trough
aloft flattens. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in western
MD late Thursday evening, with gusty winds as the main threat. This
is where SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms. However, the loss of strong synoptic support and
lower instability due to evening arrival time likely limit the
intensity and coverage of any stronger storms.
Models are in good agreement on 0.5-0.75" of rain in the Alleghenies
and parts of the Potomac Highlands as the front moves through.
Elsewhere, a wetting rain of 0.25-0.50" are likely Thursday night
through Friday afternoon. The front will be slow to cross on Friday,
with cooler air moving in while light rain continues into the
afternoon.
The warmest temps on Friday will occur early in the morning, then
we`ll see a gradual cooling through the day. The front clears Friday
evening, ushering in a cooler airmass Friday night as lows drop to
the 20s to mid 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures return this weekend
before another warm up ensues next week.
A progressive synoptic pattern continues across the country with
below average mid/upper heights pushing through the eastern U.S.
this weekend. A brunt of this cold air arrives on Saturday with 850-
mb temperatures ranging around -6 to -8C. Mixed dry adiabatically
will carry high temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s, locally in
the 30s to low 40s across the mountains. Residual height gradients
should favor a breezy northwesterly wind which comes with mostly
sunny skies. As a 1036-mb anticyclone settles over the Mid-Atlantic,
strong radiational cooling effects lowers forecast lows into the mid
20s to near freezing. Temperatures rebound for the second half of
the weekend as heights build behind the passing trough. Sunday`s
highs return well into the 50s amidst prevailing southerly flow.
As the longwave trough pushes out in the Atlantic, a broad upper
ridge pulses northward from the Gulf of America. Subsidence in this
regime coupled by a stationary boundary arcing west-east across
southern New England will yield a warm up for next week. The profile
features low-level south to southwesterly flow, with westerlies
aloft. By the middle of next week, widespread 70s to near 80 degrees
look possible. However, this does come with a lot of ensemble spread
which is likely due to the position of the boundary to the north.
This backdoor front could easily be further south than currently
forecasted.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure moves
offshore. South to southwest winds gust around 20 knots this
afternoon, and around 20-25 knots Thursday afternoon.
A cold front moves into the area Thursday evening into Friday,
possibly bringing sub-VFR conditions to area terminals. A period of
persistent showers is likely Friday morning to afternoon, then
conditions improve from north to south Friday evening as the front
moves through.
VFR conditions are expected this weekend with a dry pattern. A
residual brisk northwesterly wind is likely on Saturday with
afternoon gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. Canadian high pressure
eventually pulls off the coast late in the weekend yielding a return
southerly flow by Sunday. South to southwesterlies increase a bit on
Monday with increasing clouds. However, VFR conditions likely
continue.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure moving offshore will produce south to southwest winds
across the waters through Thursday. Winds are gusting around 20
knots occasionally this afternoon, with a Marine Weather Statement
in effect for small craft exercising caution.
SCA conditions are possible across all of the waters Thursday
afternoon, then again Thursday night into Friday as a strong cold
front moves through the area.
A brisk northwesterly wind continues into Saturday with Small Craft
Advisories likely needed through the afternoon hours. Winds shift to
southerly on Sunday, but stay below advisory levels. Another ramp up
is possible early next week with a shift to southwesterlies
ensue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather may become an issue over portions of the area Saturday
through Monday pending on how much rainfall we see with the front on
Friday. A wetting rain of 0.25-0.50" of rainfall looks likely, some
parts of the Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands possibly getting
close to 1" of rain.
Minimum RH values will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range each
afternoon this weekend, with wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Right now,
the greatest threat appears to be over the severe drought area of
central VA and the Shenandoah Valley.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels are possible at sensitive locations during the
early afternoon high tide cycle today and Thursday. Coastal Flood
Advisories are possible, though most tide locations will reach
Action Stage during high tide. A strong cold front moves across the
area Friday, with offshore winds lowering water levels through the
weekend.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRR/BRO
AVIATION...KRR/BRO
MARINE...KRR/BRO
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion