252
FXUS61 KLWX 081425
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1025 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiescent weather expected through the end of the week.

- 2) Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
     weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiescent weather expected through the end of
the week.

Current surface analysis depicts that the cold front has largely
pushed through the region this morning. In its wake, drier air
is building in from the west and we are starting to see a few
wind gusts around 20 mph, though very sparse at this time. As
we mix out later this morning into the afternoon, winds will
increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. An
occasional gust near 30 mph near higher terrain. Despite the
passage of the front, downsloping winds likely pushing temps
well into the 70s to near 80 for most. Lowered Tds given the
downsloping setup NBM was not catching at all.

Seasonable (albeit slightly cooler) temps and dry conditions
will then persist under high pressure Fri through Fri
night. Lowered Tds in aft given recent NBM issues and favorable
setup for lower Tds.

High pressure retreats off to the NE Sat with cloudcover from
the remnants of Isaias moving in and thickening through the day.
Any precip likely holds off until Sat night or Sun morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
weekend.

Tropical Storm Isaias continues to be the main weather feature to
monitor over the forecast period with remnants expected to impact
the forecast area later this weekend. The National Hurricane Center
has TS Isaias tracking a bit slower and further east than previous
forecasts, with remnant circulation over central Kentucky early
Sun afternoon. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast
area through Sat, with precip associated with remnants of
Isaias reaching the forecast area on Sun. The most likely
impact to the forecast area continues to be rain although severe
weather cannot be ruled out on Sunday. Most likely rainfall is
an inch or two, but still highly uncertain. This many days out,
the track, timing, and impacts of Tropical Storm Isaias remain
uncertain so be sure to monitor hurricanes.gov for the latest
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Behind a dry frontal passage from earlier this morning, winds
have largely shifted out of the W to WNW. Wind will increase
later this morning into the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots
possiible.

VFR conditions are expected Sat as high pressure remains
dominant over the region, though clouds will increase and
thicken through the day. Winds will be out of the S to SE on
Sat at 5 to 10 knots.

Sub-VFR conditions are expected on Sun as remnants associated
with Tropical Storm Isaias impact the terminals. Reductions in
ceilings and visibilities are possible during rainfall with
southwest winds gusting around 20 knots. On Mon, VFR conditions
return with northwest winds remaining light.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds today shift to the W and NW with SCA gusts expected over
the upper tidal Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay/Baltimore
Harbor. Winds drop below SCA by late Thu afternoon through Fri.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on Sat as high
pressure remains dominant over the region. However, by Sat
evening, we could see a brief burst of S`ly channeling winds
that come close to criteria. Confidence is low at this time.

Small Craft Advisory criteria winds are likely on Sun with
winds gusting around 20 knots as the remnants of Isaias move
through. Winds diminish on Mon, blowing around 10 knots out of
the NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels may increase during the second half of the weekend
depending on the exact direction and strength of the winds as
the remnants of Isaias approach.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CJL/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion