221
FXUS61 KLWX 150111
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
811 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing. Monitoring snow showers in the mountains. Some slick
spots possible in any moderate bursts overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
  diminishing winds and clouds.

- 2) Dry conditions persist through next week with increasing
  temperatures starting Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
diminishing winds and clouds.

Monitoring the mountains for snow showers. Bulk of activity is
in PA currently, but most models have it shifting southward
through the night. Will monitor if SPS is needed or not.
Previous discussion follows.

Northwest flow aloft between low pressure departing the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes
will maintain the status quo through Sunday evening. Waves of
stratocumulus along with a few sprinkles or flurries are
anticipated east of the Appalachians with a moisture fetch off
the Great Lakes, with intermittent snow showers along and west
of the Allegheny Front through Sunday. Little to no measurable
precipitation is expected for the majority of the area, but a
dusting of snow is possible for west-facing slopes above 1900
feet along and west of the Allegheny Front, with spotty 1 to 2
inch amounts possible above about 2700 feet.

A few snow/sleet pellets or snizzle/very spotty light freezing
drizzle/fog can`t be ruled out over the highest peaks along and
west of the Allegheny Front due to shallower moisture at times.

Of note, the 14/12Z REFS had a few members with several
hundredths of an inch of QPF from a streamer over the eastern WV
panhandle, north-central MD and into extreme northern VA tonight
through Sunday. We do not currently have PoPs for measurable
precipitation in these areas (just the mention of scattered
sprinkles and flurries), but can`t totally discount the idea of
a steadier shower (or perhaps a light dusting of snow above
about 700-800 feet) through Sunday evening.

After peaking this afternoon, wind gusts will gradually subside
through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Gusts
will be slower to subside at higher elevations (especially at
night compared to the lower elevations). Clouds will also
gradually thin and scatter out during this period.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions persist through next week with
increasing temperatures starting Tuesday.

Winds continue to diminish on Tuesday and remain light through
the end of the week as high pressure transitions overhead in the
wake of the front. As upper-level ridging continues to build
over several days, dry conditions are expected to persist
through the end of the forecast period with mostly clear skies
overhead and progressively warming temperatures as the week goes
on. Afternoon highs could begin to approach the upper 60s
between Thursday and Friday, well above seasonable normals, with
overnight lows generally in the 40s. No precipitation is
currently anticipated Tuesday through Friday.

Looking ahead to the end of next week, an upper-level trough
could develop over the Great Lakes and produce a stemming cold
front in the days following; will continue to monitor this
pattern for any precipitation potential over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Stratocumulus clouds with bases around FL035-060 will persist
through Sunday night. Some higher end MVFR is possible, mainly
near MRB Sunday morning. Otherwise, other than a spotty flurry
or sprinkle, it will be dry through early next week. Winds will
gust up to 25 knots through this evening, with gusts becoming a
bit lighter (15-20 knots) and more occasional overnight. Gusts
to around 20 knots are anticipated during the day Sunday, with
lighter winds Sunday night into Monday.

NW winds stay below 10 knots Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure remains overhead. VFR conditions are anticipated across
terminals through this period, with mostly clear skies persisting
through the midweek. Winds shift southwesterly on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will persist through this
evening before gradually subsiding overnight through Sunday to
around 20 to 25 knots. SCAs may need to be extended into Sunday
night or even Monday for portions of the open waters depending
on how quickly high pressure builds.

Winds stay below SCA thresholds beginning Tuesday through Thursday,
shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly by Wednesday. No
precipitation is anticipated during this period as high pressure
remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much colder air will move in over the next few days in the wake
of a departing low pressure to our northeast. This will result
in intermittent upslope snow showers in the Allegheny Mountains
through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, brisk winds will continue
through Monday with waves of clouds. Temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday while high pressure gradually
builds overhead into the middle of next week.

Over the next several days, breezy conditions will continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the valleys.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps closer to
the upper 20s in the typical dry spots.

Winds will begin to taper off Monday, but RHs will remain low,
and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not be surprised if
early next week has a day that needs closer attention.

Little to no measurable precipitation is expected east of the
Appalachians through at least the end of next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion