386
FXUS61 KLWX 251417
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1017 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The growing season ended for Frederick MD and western Loudoun
Counties. Otherwise little to no change needed to the forecast
this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below normal low temperatures give way to a warming trend
  early this week.

- 2) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue
  through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal low temperatures give way to a
warming trend early this week.

High pressure will drift southwest through Monday. As a result,
expect a continuation of frost and freeze conditions tonight
with seasonable temperatures during the daylight hours.

After the chilly start, temperatures will rebound well into the
60s for much of the area this afternoon. Some stratocumulus are
possible at times, but may ultimately be thin and transient.

As the high drifts southwest tonight, low-level flow will turn
westerly allowing for less of a marine influence. This should
set us up for one more good radiational cooling night before
temperatures warm under return flow early in the workweek.
Tonight will be more of a ridge- valley split type of night with
cooler conditions in the valleys/cold pockets/locations along
and east of I-95 compared to the ridge tops given the sharp
surface inversion/decoupling.

Only minor changes have been made to the previous min temperature
forecasts, which are near or below the coldest guidance which
performs best in radiational cooling (MOS, NBM 10th percentile and
Canadian Regional).

Expect temperatures to rise above normal (upper 60s to lower 70s) by
Monday afternoon as the warming airmass mixes to the surface.
Minimal cloud cover and light winds will remain persistent.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions
continue through the end of the week.

An upper-level ridge will build through the middle of the week
supporting above normal temperatures. A dry cold front will
cross the area Tuesday, only dropping temperatures slightly.
High pressure settles south of the area during the second half
of the week supporting a warming trend again. A weak upper-level
disturbance will traverse the region Thursday night only
bringing high clouds ahead of it. It looks like no precipitation
will occur through the remainder of October.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions today with some stratocu possible. NAM
and related guidance continues to show more widespread low CIGS
and fog late tonight into early Monday morning, with at least
some hint of this in other guidance and forecast soundings.

Winds will be light out of the NE this morning shifting to SE
this afternoon, then W overnight. W/NW winds AOB 10 kts Monday.

P6SM SKC with light and variable winds as high pressure dominates. A
dry cold front will cross the area late Monday night with winds
shifting to NW Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northeast winds this morning will become southeast this
afternoon, then west overnight into Monday. No rain is expected
with light winds generally 10 knots or less.

Marginal SCA conditions possible Tuesday-Tuesday evening in NW
flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light onshore flow will persist through this evening, and could
result in one last round of at or near minor flooding along
vulnerable shoreline this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion