211
FXUS61 KLWX 031429
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1029 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have expired. No major
changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have expired.

- 2) A strong cold front brings widespread showers and
  thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have
expired.

Temperatures have risen into middle 40s to lower 50s. Therefore,
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have expired. Temperatures
will continue to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings widespread showers
and thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

A shortwave trough passing through to the north could bring a few
residual showers to the area on Tuesday, primarily north of the I-66
corridor. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough centered over the
Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring significantly more widespread
chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the region as it
moves through the area between Wednesday and Thursday. As of right
now, early QPF estimates are forecasting 1.00-1.25
inches of rain in the area by Friday, which would be extremely
beneficial given widespread drought concerns that have
impacted the region for some time now. As for the severe
potential, NCAR`s Medium-Range AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast
still has our area under a 5%-15% chance for severe potential during
this time, but it has much higher severe chances centered around
where its forecasted low is to the south. Should this center low
trend northward, we could see a much greater potential for
thunderstorms and severe convection in our area.

Once this frontal boundary passes through, temperatures cool a bit
towards the end of the week, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s
again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday as high pressure
builds over the terminals. Northwest winds gust 15 to 25 knots
this afternoon before diminishing overnight. On Monday,
southwest winds remain light blowing 5 to 10 knots.

Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible at KMRB on Tuesday with
scattered showers possible. Widespread showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across
terminals. Winds remain southerly during this time, with gusts
reaching 20-30 knots starting Tuesday evening and going into
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon
as northwest winds gust up to 25 knots. Winds quickly diminish
this evening with winds remaining light overnight. On Monday,
winds shift to southwesterly, remaining below SCA criteria
through the day.

SCA conditions remain likely through at least midweek, with 15
knot winds potentially increasing to 25 knots by Wednesday morning;
gusts up to 30 knots will be a possibility across the bay on
Wednesday. Winds continue to flow southerly during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies rise tonight into Monday morning, with
sensitive tidal locations(Annapolis) nearing minor flood level
during the high tide cycle Monday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/SRT
MARINE...AVS/KLW/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion