083
FXUS61 KLWX 191904
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
304 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Gale Warning for the middle Chesapeake was cancelled in
favor for a Small Craft Advisory. Existing Small Craft
Advisories were reoriented and extended into Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cool and dry weather continues through the weekend,
  although a slow-moving Nor`easter off the coast will bring
  gusty winds along the Chesapeake Bay and minor tidal flooding
  at times through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and dry weather continues through the weekend,
although a slow-moving Nor`easter off the coast will bring gusty
winds along the Chesapeake Bay and minor tidal flooding at times
through Friday.

The position of the Nor`easter hasn`t changed much from
yesterday at this time, a few hundred miles east-southeast of
Cape Hatteras. Strong high pressure builds toward Quebec tonight
into Tuesday, while the low starts to drift northward as the
preceding northern stream shortwave causes a weakness in the
block. This will lead to a greater pressure gradient and
slightly breezier conditions Tuesday. For tonight, that also
means fewer areas will become calm. In addition, dew points will
be higher where the growing season continues, so frost appears
unlikely tonight.

The ridge will continue to expand north and west of the low,
blocking it from substantial movement through mid week. Although
some uncertainty remains in the exact track/timing of the
Nor`easter, this pattern will keep the low far enough off the
coast to eliminate rain potential (and clouds for that matter)
across the forecast area. Overall, any impacts will be tied to
coastal communities along the Chesapeake Bay where potential
minor coastal flooding and gusty marine winds remain possible
concerns this week. More information on those topics is included
in sections below.

Temperatures will climb slightly through mid week, ending up on
either side of normal values.

By Thursday, what remains of the upper reflection of the offshore
closed low gradually becomes absorbed into a deep trough over
eastern Canada. These adjoining features are slated to pull eastward
into the Canadian Maritimes while upstream heights build across the
Mississippi Valley. From Friday and into this weekend, this broad
ridge axis advances eastward ahead of a trough inhabiting the
western/central U.S. As this occurs, there are some hints of another
upper low center getting pinched off near the Carolina coast.
However, its far southward displacement should minimize any direct
impacts from this system. Overall synoptic uncertainty does increase
markedly toward the end of the weekend and into early next week.
Most notably, it revolves around a split in the jet streams over the
middle of the continent.

Looking down at the surface, a fresh area of high pressure
behind the departing trough/Canadian cold front dominates
through late week while becoming more centered over the
northeastern U.S. by Saturday. This ensures continued tranquil
weather heading toward the last week of October. Expect dry
conditions along with abundant sunshine each day. The air mass
will remain quite dry owing to the prevailing northerly
component to the local wind fields. Most days should yield highs
in the 60s (50s for the mountains). The coldest overnight
periods will likely be Friday and Saturday nights as lows fall
into the 30s to low 40s. With the growing season having ended
from the Blue Ridge westward, it remains to be seen if any
frost/freeze threats emerge off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the end of the week as surface
high pressure builds north of the area and dry conditions
persist. Winds remain primarily out of the north each day,
gusting around 15-20 knots at times each afternoon. As high
pressure settles overhead, winds turn lighter by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain the
prominent weather feature through Friday. This will result in
nearly continuous Small Craft Advisory conditions in northerly
flow over the middle Chesapeake Bay, while northern and
interior waters will occasionally see breaks. Stronger gusts
have not materialized this afternoon, so northern and western
sections of the advisory were cancelled. The Gale Warning for
the middle Chesapeake was downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory,
as the latest model guidance has been trending downward with
winds. SCAs were also extended as needed through Tuesday night.

Expect a northerly wind to largely dominate Wednesday through
Friday before turning more northeasterly by the night. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed on Thursday, but particularly by
late Thursday into Friday morning given a northerly surge in the
winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are actually declining in some areas this
afternoon, but will rise again through midweek as a Nor`easter
starts drifting northward offshore. Tidal locations including
Dahlgren, Annapolis, Solomons Island, and Alexandria are
forecast to reach minor flood stage by Tuesday night or
Wednesday high tide cycles. Annapolis could approach moderate
flood stage. However, some uncertainty remains on how exactly
this Nor`easter will affect the tide levels. Elevated water
levels likely won`t decline until late in the week when the low
will finally start pulling out to sea.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ530-531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion