635
FXUS61 KLWX 120036
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
836 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather threat has ended for this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1)Strong frontal systems will bring gusty winds and cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday.
- 2)Another strong cold front will arrive early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong frontal systems will bring gusty winds
and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday.
The potent cold front will push across the area late
tonight/early Thursday morning. Calendar day highs will likely
occur at midnight or early in the day for many locations as
temperatures fall rapidly behind the front and struggle to rise
any through the day Thursday. A swath of showers will form
along and behind the front, progressing eastward through the day
Thursday. Coverage/duration may even expand east of the Blue
Ridge in the right entrance to the upper jet and sharp mid level
trough axis move through. With the rapid low level cold
advection, many models continue to show this precipitation
changing over to snow. This will likely be rate-based as near
surface temperatures should still be well above freezing in the
lower elevations. In addition, all the forcing is in the mid
levels, with dry advection noted beneath in forecast soundings.
Models are also often biased too cold in these post frontal
downslope scenarios. So while some snow is possible as
precipitation ends, impacts should be limited given the recent
warmth. An inch or so of accumulation could occur in the higher
elevations, especially the Blue Ridge where QPF will likely be
higher comparatively to the typical upslope areas. The other
aspect of the front will be gusty northwest winds. Higher
elevations could approach Wind Advisory criteria (40-50 mph).
Winds diminish quickly Thursday evening as high pressure slides
by to the south. Subfreezing low temperatures will return to
much of the forecast area.
Another low pressure system will be moving through the Great
Lakes Friday. The increased pressure gradient will result in
gusty southwesterly winds. These winds could once again near
Wind Advisory criteria in the higher elevations. There could
also be fire weather issues due to low humidity (see separate
section below). The cold front will push through Friday night
with high pressure building in from the west Saturday. Little to
no precipitation is expected, and the net effect will only have
minimal impacts on temperatures. In fact, temperatures will
likely remain slightly above average through Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive early
next week.
A third cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across
the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture
recovery is expected ahead of this front to result in numerous
showers and possible thunderstorms. Can`t ruled out some severe wx
due to the strength of the wind fields. Gusty winds will accompany
this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.
Longwave trough pattern establishes across the East thereafter with
strong sfc high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than
normal pattern for the middle and second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southwesterly winds may gust 20-25 kt through this evening.
Where winds may be a little calmer at BWI/MTN, low level wind
shear may be present.
As the cold front approaches, a larger area of showers will
likely cross the area from late tonight through mid Thursday
afternoon. MVFR conditions will likely develop east of the Blue
Ridge Thursday morning as the shower coverage expands.
Precipitation could end briefly as snow, but confidence is too
low to include that in the TAF yet. The front will also bring a
sharp wind shift to the northwest, with peak gusts up to 35 kt
Thursday morning. Lingering gusts through the afternoon will
subside with sunset.
Expect largely VFR conditions on Friday into Saturday. The
bigger story will be the gusty southwesterly winds on Friday
ahead of another strong cold front. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots
are expected before winds shift to west-northwesterly Friday
night into Saturday and decrease throughout the day.
Strong cdfnt forecast to cross the area Monday with showers and
possible thunderstorms and gusty winds in both the pre-frontal
and post- frontal environment.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong cold front will cross the waters late tonight into
Thursday. This will lead to a sharp wind shift to the northwest.
Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected. Went with a SCA for now
as the potential for gale force gusts appears to be rather brief
immediately behind frontal passage. Winds should decrease
fairly quickly Thursday evening.
Ahead of the next cold front, southwesterly winds will increase
Friday. SCAs are likely. While gusts could approach gale force,
think the wind direction and relatively cooler waters will
prevent the stronger winds from reaching the surface due to low
level stability. The cold front will push through early Saturday
morning. While some marginal advisory conditions may persist
through the day, overall the westerly winds are forecast to be
lighter.
Another period of SCA conditions is expected Sunday lasting
through the middle of next week ahead and behind potent cold
front fcst to cross the area Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Saturday look concerning in regards to fire
weather, especially Friday. However, the threat will be
conditionally based upon how much rain the region receives this
afternoon through Thursday morning. The current forecast
precipitation amounts are around a quarter to half inch east of
the Blue Ridge, with lower amounts to the west to the Allegheny
Front. Higher amounts are expected west of the Allegheny Front,
with 0.50 to 1 inches (additional) in the forecast. In between,
specifically within the Shenandoah Valley and portions of the
Potomac Highlands is where I`d be concerned about a bit of a
rain shadow. Also, given the showery nature of this afternoon`s
potential activity, these amounts likely won`t be realized at
every given location. All this to say, while some areas could
see enough rain to keep fuels damp through this upcoming windy
period, many will not.
Now, moving into Thursday afternoon, following a strong frontal
passage winds will pick up substantially out of the WNW along
with a sharp decrease in RH. Overall, the low level dry
advection may be slightly delayed, but should still drop quickly
in the afternoon west of the Blue Ridge. This will also be
paired with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (20-25 at
elevation) with gusts of 30 mph (45 mph at elevation). The sun
will be out by late afternoon in these areas, but temperatures
will actually be on the decline (mid 40s in the valleys, mid 30s
on the ridges). This, paired with the recent rainfall, make
Thursday less of a concern, but still worth noting for any
ongoing fires.
Friday is where the level of concern increases. Another strong,
and this time dry, cold front will be approaching the region
before moving through Friday night. Ahead of that, very strong
southerly winds pick up. The air mass will also continue to be
extremely dry, and could be locally enhanced in downslope flow
west of the Blue Ridge. Current forecast has low to mid 20s RHs
in the typical drier valleys. Given that the winds likely have
dried things out substantially from any rain the day prior, this
looks to be a concerning day in regards to fire weather. Future
shifts may need to consider Fire Weather Watches.
Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal
passage from Friday night. RH values could drop into the teens
across much of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will
remain somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the
interstate 66 corridor, where 15-25 mph winds can be expected.
More analysis will need to be done to determine the threat for
any headlines Saturday, but could see something being necessary
on this day as well.
Gusty winds but increasing RHs on Sunday ahead of another front,
which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night. Less of
a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel the impacts of
some gusty southeasterly flow (20-25 mph gusts).
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily high records could be set again today.
Below is a list of previous records for March 11.
Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 11
Record High 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 57F/2016
Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 11
Record High 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 49F/1967
Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 11
Record High 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 53F/1955
Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 11
Record High 74F/1967
Record Warm Low 52F/1986
Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 11
Record High 83F/1925
Record Warm Low 53F/2016
Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 11
Record High 78F/2021
Record Warm Low 49F/1955
Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 11
Record High 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 53F/2016
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 11
Record High 76F/1967
Record Warm Low 56F/2016
56F/1955
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CPB
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CPB
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion