503
FXUS61 KLWX 131830
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
130 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model differences remain with Sun system, mainly QPF and how
much if any snow falls across higher terrain. Snow forecast
decreased areawide, but uncertainties remain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A chilly rain appears likely Sunday into Sunday night with
  snow possible across higher elevations.

- 2) Above normal temperatures are expected next week with rain
  possible by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A chilly rain appears likely Sunday into Sunday night
with snow possible across higher elevations.

Primary UL TROF & associated SFC low will track well south of
the area. The 2nd low will impact the FA Sun in Sun night.
Still some uncertainty wrt strength of high pres to N and how
quickly it retreats. Dealing with lobe of PV with low
predictability. Model trends during the past 24 hours have shown
a s-wrd trend with the track of the low pres fcst to track
across the srn Mid-Atl Sun night with lower QPF and a warmer
SOLN. The threat for flooding has diminished. The precip is now
fcst to exit the area by midnight Sun night.

In terms of snow, areas above 2-3kft most lkly to see snow
given MRGL SFC temps and profiles. Greatest confidence in vcnty
of Spruce Knob and higher terrain of Pendleton/highland for
snow, but could easily see hilltops coated eastward depending on
system evolution.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures are expected next week
with rain possible by midweek.

Ridging is expected to build over the East mid next week downstream
from an UL trof over the West. This is expected to result in a
gradual warm up with temps generally remaining above normal.
However, we`ll need to watch for backdoor fronts this time of
the year which may result in large fcst errors in temps. Looking
at 10-day trends for temps from the EC, there has been a lot of
volatility in MaxT on a day to day basis, but we may be able to
squeeze out one mild day next week. A weak wave riding along a
stalled frontal zone may bring some showers Wed. A stronger cold
front is possible at the end of next week bringing a cooler
trend to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Continued VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
Sat. Low pres will track south of the area Sun into Sun night
likely to bring sub-VFR conditions. A steady light to moderate
rain is expected Sun into Sun night, with low CIGs and VSBY
possible. Some snow could mix in at MRB, but the dominant p-type
at all terminals is likely to be rain at this time.

Sub-VFR conditions may linger into Mon depending on how quickly
the storm system exits. VFR conditions and light winds are
likely Tue as high pres builds.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Sat with high pres
dominating. An area of low pres will track south of the waters
on Sun, then move offshore at the start of next week. SCAs may
be needed Sun night for parts of the waters as NE winds
increase into Mon.

SCAs may continue into Mon in N`ly flow behind the departing
low pres. Lighter winds are expected Mon night and Tue as high
pres builds in.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CPB
AVIATION...LFR/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion