788
FXUS61 KLWX 120842
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
342 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to our south for today into Tuesday.
Thereafter, upper troughing will dig along the East Coast and
remain in place through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes today
while high pressure simultaneously builds to our south. As the
coastal low pulls away, the pressure gradient overhead will
relax, causing winds to decrease and turn out of the southwest.

Satellite imagery early this morning shows cloud cover still in
place roughly to the west of I-81, but this stratocumulus deck
is slowly starting to erode as low-level wind trajectories are
increasingly removed from Great Lake influence. The trend toward
decreasing cloud cover will continue through the morning, with
mostly sunny skies expected across much of the forecast area by
around noon. Some high clouds may move in later this afternoon,
especially across western MD and the WV Panhandle, but skies
should remain mostly sunny through the afternoon for most.
Temperatures today will run a few degrees above normal, with
highs in the mid to upper 40s for most (30s mountains).

Conditions will remain dry overnight as winds go light.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave pattern will begin to amplify tomorrow from the
Eastern Pacific eastward across North America. A deepening
cyclone will track northeastward toward southeastern Alaska,
leading to a strong ridgebuiding event downstream over Western
Canada. This ridgebuilding event will then encourage troughing
to dig southward toward the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a
shortwave and associated area of low pressure will track
eastward through the base of the digging trough across Ontario
and Quebec. The area of high pressure to our south will slowly
erode, but maintain enough of an influence to keep conditions
dry locally on Tuesday. High clouds will be on the increase,
especially during the afternoon hours, but southerly winds will
lead to mild conditions, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s
(mid 40s mountains).

Upper troughing will continue to dig southward through the Great
Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day Wednesday, with
most guidance showing a closed upper low eventually developing
over the Great Lakes and then tracking southeastward into the
Ohio Valley. With the trough axis still well off to our west,
southerly low-level winds will maintain a mild airmass across
the area, with highs climbing into the 50s to the east of the
mountains. As increasing moisture advects in from the south and
large scale ascent ahead of the trough starts to increase, the
trend will be for cloud cover to increase across the region.
Showers may also be possible at times, especially across the WV
Panhandle and Western MD.

The upper low will continue its trek eastward across Ohio
Wednesday night. Large scale ascent ahead of the closed
low/broader upper trough will encourage pressure falls and the
development of low pressure to our north, which will then track
eastward across PA/NY. As this occurs, winds will shift to out
of the northwest. This will enable colder air to start to filter
in from the northwest. As a result, precipitation in the
Alleghenies will change over to snow and become enhanced within
upslope northwesterly flow. Snow may also start to mix in with
the rain at lower elevations to the west of the Blue Ridge by
daybreak Thursday. A few inches of snow accumulation appears
possible in the Alleghenies Wednesday night, with little to no
accumulation further east. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday
night will be in the 30s for most (near/sub-freezing west of
the Blue Ridge, mid-upper 30s east of the Blue Ridge).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Digging upper low over the Midwest Thu will help spawn area of low
pressure over our area Wed night into Thu with snow in the mountains
and a primarily rain event east of the mountains/lower elevations
Wed night, changing to snow Thu afternoon and evening as upper low
crosses the area.  Latest ensemble plots show better clustering with
the track of sfc low compared to 24 hrs ago, keeping the significant
or heavy snow risk toward the Appalachians away from the major
cities. Turning brisk Thu afternoon and night as low pressure
deepens offshore. Definitely colder pattern beginning Thu and
continuing into next week.

Additional shortwave energy traversing the area Friday may bring the
threat of light snow Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the day
Wednesday, with sub-VFR ceilings and showers potentially moving
in Wednesday night.

Winds are still gusty out of the northwest early this morning,
but will continue to decrease in magnitude through the remainder
of the night. Winds will turn out of the west, and then
southwest over the course of the day today, before becoming
light overnight. Southerly winds are expected on both Tuesday
and Wednesday, before winds turn out of the northwest Wednesday
night.

Light snow is possible Thu, but the main impact will be the
strengthening NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through 7 AM, but northwesterly winds are
on the decrease early this morning. Winds will become lighter
and turn out of the west and then southwest over the course of
the day. Southerly winds are forecast for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. These southerly winds may reach low-end SCA levels
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night within channeled southerly
flow. Winds will turn out of the northwest on Wednesday night.

Potential gale conditions Thu night with SCA conditions Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion