186
FXUS61 KLWX 201920
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
320 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #234 in effect until 8 PM.
Small Craft Advisory issued for the Chesapeake Bay for Thursday
and Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms expected into early
  this evening as a strong cold front crosses, ending the record
  heat and the severe thunderstorm risk.

- Persistent rainfall chances through early next week, with a
  gradual increase in temperatures again starting late in the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms expected into early
this evening as a strong cold front crosses, ending the record
heat and the severe thunderstorm risk.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Storms are developing in a hot and unstable air mass, but with
little vertical shear. Main threat remains downburst winds due
to hot and moist conditions near the surface and dry air aloft.
Cold front will cross the area tonight around 00Z with shifting
winds and ending the severe weather risk. However, overrunning
showers will be possible through the end of the work week as
energy in southwest flow aloft moves along and north of surface
boundary. Given large rainfall deficits and stratiform precip,
flooding is NOT expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent rainfall chances through early next week, with a
gradual increase in temperatures again starting late in the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Synoptically, looking at a transient/wedge pattern Thursday into the
upcoming holiday week. Weak troughing will reside over the Ohio
River Valley with high pressure locked across New England/Great
Lakes region. The combination of these two features along a stalled
front to the south will lead to persistent onshore flow into the
region. As a result, expect several days of on and off
shower/thunderstorm activity through the remainder of week into the
Memorial Day holiday. Sunshine will be limited with plenty of cloud
cover expected and cooler than normal temperatures as a result of
the east to northeast flow. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30
degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push
70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on
Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s.

Beginning Saturday and going into Sunday, a warm front begins
to slowly meander south of the area and push north of the area
on Monday, continuing rain and thunderstorm chances into the
start of next week. Temperatures still vary a bit in the
ensemble outlooks, but temperatures should start to gradually
climb again by Sunday, with early outlooks showing highs in the
low 80s again by Tuesday. High pressure moves into the area by
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Numerous thunderstorms through about 00Z likely impacting all
terminals except KCHO. Potential for strong wind gusts with any
thunderstorms. Storms should start to wane after 00Z but showers
may linger overnight as cdfnt crosses the area. Then, low cigs
develop as onshore flow develops with IFR cigs expected to last
through the end of the week

Periodic sub-VFR potential persists into Sunday and Monday with
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across terminals. Winds
generally remain between 5-10 knots during this time, with northeast
winds shifting southerly by Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...

SMWs may be needed for the northern waters late today or this
evening. Cdfnt crosses the area overnight with strengthening
onshore winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions developing.
SCA conditions persist through the end of the week.

Winds diminish below SCA levels on Sunday and Monday, with northeast
winds shifting southerly by Monday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Records have been broken at IAD and tied at BWI. Both BWI and
IAD reached 95 earlier this afternoon.

Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.


                 ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        96F (1996)            73F (2019)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          93F (1996)            69F (2019)
Baltimore (BWI)                  95F (1962)            71F (2019)+
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     97F (1962)            74F (1998)+
Martinsburg (MRB)                97F (1911)            70F (1998)
Charlottesville (CHO)            96F (1996)            73F (1996)
Annapolis (NAK)                  98F (1997)            76F (1898)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 97F (1996)            66F (1998)


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
     537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion