200
FXUS61 KLWX 030122
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
922 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted the start time for a portion of the Small Craft
Advisory. If winds are lighter than expected, a few additional
zones could see some frost development.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freeze Warnings are in effect in the Appalachians, Blue
  Ridge, and central Shenandoah Valley. Frost Advisories are in
  effect from central Maryland into parts of central Virginia
  tonight and early Sunday.

- 2) Showers remain possible at times next week as temperatures
  rise to near or above normal. Heavier showers and thunderstorms
  are likely Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freeze Warnings are in effect in the Appalachians,
Blue Ridge, and central Shenandoah Valley. Frost Advisories are
in effect from central Maryland into parts of central Virginia
tonight and early Sunday.

Temperatures will potentially fall into the upper 20s and 30s
widespread tonight into early Sunday, with 40s along and east of
I-95. The main uncertainty is wind, with northwesterly flow at
925 mb of 20-25 kt. Thus there could be a wide array of
temperatures depending on decoupling. The most favorable areas
to decouple will be sheltered valleys as well as locations
toward central Virginia, where the pressure gradient will relax
more. Given this uncertainty, did not expand the Frost Advisory,
but did add patchy frost wording into some of these areas on
the periphery. Clouds will clear out the second half of the
night except along the Allegheny Front, so that will be less of
a factor. Freeze Warnings extend from western Maryland, into
parts of northeastern West Virginia, as well as the central
Shenandoah Valley from 2am tonight through 9am Sunday. Frost
Advisories extend from central Maryland, the eastern West
Virginia Panhandle, and along the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge into the Virginia Piedmont.

Even though the airmass will be moderating under southwesterly
flow Sunday night, dew points will remain below freezing in the
western part of the forecast area. The main question is cloud
cover with a shortwave trough. If those clouds don`t
materialize, some higher elevations valleys like Highland County
could see some frost Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers remain possible at times next week as
temperatures rise to near or above normal. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms are likely Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will trend above normal during the first half of
the week. A strong frontal system will bring the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms mid week.

Heights will rebound during the first half of the week leading to
warming trend. A few showers are possible Tue afternoon due to
shortwave energy passing by and weak instability.

An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lks region into
the mid MS River Valley and Midwest will lead to the
development of a pair of surface lows which are expected to
track across the Mid-Atlantic region during the middle of next
week bringing widespread beneficial rainfall. There have been
large inconsistencies among model guidance with the second sfc
low with prior runs indicating low track across Pennsylvania and
putting local area in the warm sector with the risk of severe
wx with most recent runs indicating a track south of the area
keeping area in cool sector, minimizing severe risk and bringing
much needed beneficial rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots through the night, although MRB and CHO could decouple
enough for frost to develop. Winds increase Sunday northwest 10
to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots (lighter at CHO). These
winds will diminish Sunday evening and quickly become southerly
as high pressure slides by to the south.

Gusty southerly winds Mon and Tue. Rain and possible
thunderstorms Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Expanded the SCA tonight to include all of the bay and lower
Potomac. Could see a period of 20 kt gusts on all waters, but
thought this could be handled with a Marine Weather Statement on
the interior waters which will decouple some the second half of
the night. SCA conditions for all waters in NW flow on Sunday.
It`s possible some gusts may linger a bit past 6 PM, but should
diminish quickly by sunset as high pressure slides by to the
south.

SCA conditions in southerly flow may develop Monday but will
become much more likely Tuesday through Thursday as a front
slowly approaches from the northwest. Thunderstorms are possible
by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ003>006-507.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ028>031-
     036>040-050-051-501-505.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ025>027-503-
     504-507-508.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ051>053.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ050-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion