859
FXUS61 KLWX 090129
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
929 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Earlier thunderstorms have dissipated, bringing today`s threat
for severe weather to an end.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Typical Summertime pattern continues with building heat next
week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday.

- 2) A cold front could arrive late next week bringing relief
  from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Typical Summertime pattern continues with building
heat next week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday.

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have dissipated. Primarily dry
conditions are expected overnight. We`ll continue to monitor
storms that are ongoing as of 915 PM across Ohio and western
Pennsylvania. This activity is expected to weaken and eventually
dissipate as it moves toward the Allegheny Front after between
Midnight and 3 AM. Temperatures are expected to remain mild
overnight, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

A few storms may develop over the higher elevations on Sunday,
but coverage will be much less than in recent days. This will be
short-lived however, with storm chances increasing once again
Tuesday through the end of the week as a series of shortwave
disturbances pass through.

Things have changed slightly on Monday, as precipitation
chances have increased a bit over the past several model runs.
Another piece of shortwave energy will slide across the region
amidst a hot and very humid airmass yet again. Similar to what
we are seeing today, coverage is a question mark at this point,
but could be a couple of pretty strong to severe storms that
day. Something that bears watching at this stage, but confidence
is just too low for a severe weather outlook at this point.

Outside of he storm chances expect highs in the upper 80s and low
90s with heat indices east of the Blue Ridge up around 100 degrees.
The hottest days look to be Monday and Tuesday given the
strengthened subtropical ridge over the region. Highs will push into
the mid 90s with heat indices closer to 105 degrees east of the Blue
Ridge/along the urban corridor.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front could arrive late next week bringing
relief from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend.

Daily storm chances look to continue through at least Friday as a
more potent frontal system tracks toward the region. Ahead of that
front will be several fast moving shortwave disturbances which will
help aid in shower and thunderstorm development during the diurnal
period. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain with activity remaining
isolated to scattered Tuesday becoming a scattered to numerous
Wednesday into late week as the front tries to push through.
Speaking of the front, details remain a bit murky on it`s passage.
Most 00z ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests a frontal passage
Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Guidance also depicts an MCS type
setup during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Machine learning
guidance is grabbing onto this as well with probabilities running
between 15 to 30 percent for severe weather during the midweek
timeframe. SPC mentions areas back toward our west on the Day 4 and
5 outlook, so something we`ll continue to monitor, especially as the
subtropical ridge flattens.

There is a bit more uncertainty in regards to severe weather
Thursday through Saturday. Of course with any decent frontal passage
will have to be monitor given machine probabilities remaining
between 5-30 percent for severe weather. This will ultimately be
determined by the timing of the front in regards to the peak heating
period. Temperatures will cool from the 90s into the 80s late week.
Weather does look to improve for the upcoming weekend as Canadian
high pressure works into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through
the middle of next week given subtropical high pressure offshore and
the lack of any real front passing through. Brief periods of sub-VFR
are likely during the afternoon and evening hours due to
thunderstorms.

Storm coverage should be lesser on Sunday compared to what we
experienced this afternoon with high pressure briefly
returning. By Monday though, chances have increased again,
primarily for the northern terminals. Still only around a 30
percent chance at this time, but any storms Monday could bring
gusty winds and lightning once again. Outside of the
thunderstorms expect patchy fog between the terminals each
morning through early next week. Winds will remain light out of
the west and southwest at less than 15 kts.

Temporary restrictions will continue at times through at least
Friday as we await a cold front to sweep through.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the
open water due to southerly channeling this evening. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances are expected each afternoon and
evening through early next week, except for on Sunday. Special
Marine Warnings may be needed to encompass any any stronger
thunderstorms that may form. Damaging wind gusts and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats between
19z-01z/ 3-9pm each day.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/EST
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/EST
MARINE...CJL/KJP/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion