974
FXUS61 KLWX 011924
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
324 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Severe thunderstorm coverage for this afternoon remains
uncertain due to dry air and capping aloft.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or
  just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in
  warm conditions and daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

- A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could
  bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or
just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm
conditions and daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Watching several clusters of thunderstorms over western areas as
they move slowly east. NUCAPS data from 1751Z showed a CAPE
ridge axis from Lynchburg west and another one south of
Fredericksburg VA. Recent visible trends show cumulus field
getting squashed across northern areas due to westerly flow.
ACARS and NUCAPS soundings also showed dry air aloft between
700-600 mb and weak capping aloft. Sfc dewpoints are only in the
mid 50s. All of these factors suggest that any severe threat
would be isolated.

Backdoor front will enter the area after 00Z tonight triggering
more showers across northern areas and bringing in low ceilings.
The front will get hunged up across the area Thursday. Clusters
of showers and thunderstorms may ride along and north of the
front tomorrow. Moisture is deeper tomorrow, but mid-level flow
is weaker which may hinder storm organization and severe weather
threat.

The front will weaken and lift north of the front Fri limiting
thunderstorm coverage, mainly to the Appalachian region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could
bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early
next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Not too much has changed in the model outlook concerning Sunday`s
frontal system. The GFS and ECMWF are still well aligned on a
significant upper trough moving through the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes region this week culminating in a strong cold front
moving across the East Coast on Sunday. The most likely impacts to
the Mid Atlantic from this are widespread rainfall throughout
the region (several tenths of an inch) as well as a sharp drop
in temperatures, with potentially a 15-20 degree drop overall in
temperatures.

The thunderstorm risk is still extremely marginal at this time.
NCAR`s Medium Range AI Convective Hazards outlook still shows a
chance of thunderstorms associated with this front, although it`s
15%-30% probability has shifted slightly south since yesterday.
Thunderstorms are still something to look out for over the next
couple of days, but the primary impacts still remain
widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures as the front tracks
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening. Have PROB30 groups to cover this potential. Cigs will
drop overnight as front enters the area and linger through Thu
night. Conditions improve Friday.

There is a potential for prolonged, widespread rainfall
across terminals on Sunday as a result of a cold front that may
bring lowered ceilings and VSBYs throughout the area. Winds shift
northwesterly in the wake of a cold front between Sunday and Monday.
Surface winds are likely to be elevated on Sunday, with gusts
between 20-25 knots possible at terminals. Winds should gradually
diminish overnight going into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA conditions are likely Thu night through Sunday as srly flow
strengthens and warm front lifts north.


SCA conditions are likely on Sunday as a strong cold front moves
through the region. Widespread rain showers and an isolated
thunderstorm are possible, with winds shifting northwesterly by
Monday in the wake of the front. SCA conditions may still be
necessary on Monday, but should gradually decrease as the day
progresses.

&&


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion