955
FXUS61 KLWX 130844
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
344 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west over the next couple
of days. A warm front is expected to move through Saturday
afternoon before a cold front tracks across the area by Sunday
morning. This brings the next chance of rainfall. A secondary
cold front sweeps through on Monday leading to cooler
temperatures. High pressure then returns for the early to middle
portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The hemispheric-scale pattern shows cyclonic flow extending
across all of eastern Canada down into the northeastern U.S.
Meanwhile, a broad ridge extends across the Rockies up into the
Northwest Territories. Locally, an earlier clipper-like system
has exited offshore while additional shortwave energy tracks
north of the region this afternoon.

At the surface, the accompanying cold front sits over the
western Atlantic, with a trailing surface trough crossing the
I-95 corridor. The net effect of this latter feature has been an
uptick in wind fields as noted by the local VAD wind profiler.
This radar-derived output indicates there is around 20 to 30
knot northwesterlies just above the surface. Some of this has
effectively mixed down early this morning. The enhanced level of
mixing has held 08Z/3 AM temperatures in the 40s. However, some
spots have decoupled as winds have turned light. Given the dry
air mass in place, such locations have dropped into the low/mid
30s. Elsewhere, closer to the Mason-Dixon Line, some stable wave
clouds at around 5,000 to 6,000 feet were observed. Satellite
trends have shown these have begun to diminish over time though.

Net westerly gradients will support an enhanced downsloping
component to the wind. Model soundings depict a deeply mixed
boundary layer up to around 800-mb. With a lot of dry air near
the inversion top, expect humidity levels to be lower than
guidance is showing. Thus, opted to favor solutions with lower
dew points/relative humidity which may contribute to some fire
weather concerns (see the Fire Weather section below).
Additionally, raised temperatures a bit given the often
overachieving downsloping effects of the west-northwesterly
winds. Forecast highs rise into the upper 50s to low 60s, with
mid 50s closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. For the mountains,
expect highs in the 40s to low 50s. This all occurs underneath
sunny skies given subsidence aloft. Hefty westerly wind fields
will yield afternoon gusts to around 25 to 30 mph, with 35 to 45
mph gusts over the higher elevations.

Surface high pressure approaches from the Tennessee Valley this
evening into the night. While elevated wind fields persist over
the mountains, expect a reduction in winds across the lower
elevations. Underneath clear skies, the dome of high pressure
will provide adequate conditions for radiational cooling
effects. Forecast lows will be in upper 20s to low 30s, with mid
30s along and east of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft turns more north-northwesterly as troughing
pushes offshore and the central U.S. ridge nears the Mississippi
River Valley. This will promote another dry day with seasonable
temperatures. Expect some additional cloud cover, especially by
later in the evening into the night as a warm front approaches
from the lower Ohio Valley. Friday`s high temperatures will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s (40s to low 50s across the mountains).
For the nighttime, temperature gradients likely develop based on
where clouds settle vs. locations that stay clear. The current
forecast package favors mid/upper 30s along and south of U.S.
50. To the north, readings closer to freezing are expected.

The upstream ridge tracks toward the Eastern Seaboard on
Saturday. As this occurs, the ridge begins to flatten out in
response to a deepening northern stream trough over Ontario. The
attendant warm front to this trough is likely to cross the
region by Saturday afternoon. As a result, a few warm advection
showers are possible with amounts generally on the light side.
This pattern shift will gradually moisten the troposphere as dew
points return to the 40s to low 50s by the evening hours. Models
also highlight a bulk of the rain chances as this moistening
occurs.

The temperature forecast sees highs return to the low 60s, with
some mid 60s near I-64 and across the Shenandoah Valley. This
occurs underneath more clouds than sun. Nighttime conditions
will be mild given mostly cloudy skies and passing rain showers.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 40s to low 50s
(upper 30s to low 40s along the Allegheny Front).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deepening area of low pressure tracks across the OH Valley to the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday. A cold front will cross the area early
Sunday with dry conditions behind fropa. Trend has been for a faster
frontal crossing, which in turn will lower highs Sunday if true.
Flow becomes somewhat more zonal aloft to start next week with sfc
high pressure briefly building Monday. For Tuesday, flow becomes a
little more unsettled with disturbance moving through. Uncertain as
to where this ripple tracks, but where it does some light rain or
mountain snow is possible. Wednesday is currently progged to be dry
between systems. Another rainmaker potentially arrives Thursday.

Given the faster progression of the cold from Sunday morning, highs
Sunday may be bullish. If current trends continue,temps may need
lowered by 5-10 degrees west of I-95. Temperatures just below
seasonal norms early next week with overnight lows in the 30s to
40s (20s mtns), and daytime highs in the 50s to around 60F.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dry forecast ahead through Friday will favor VFR conditions at
the area terminals. Behind a clipper-like system, a breezy
westerly wind is expected today with gusts to around 20 to 25
knots. Winds gradually diminish into the night as high pressure
approaches from the west. By Friday, winds shift to
northwesterly with daytime gusts dropping off to around 15
knots.

Over the weekend, a warm front lifts across the area on Saturday
afternoon before a cold front tracks through on Sunday morning.
As this array of frontal boundaries move through, a few
restrictions are possible at times. Winds shift to southerly on
Saturday before turning west-northwesterly by midday Sunday.
Gusts could increase to 25 to 30 knots behind this front, with
elevated winds into the night.

VFR conditions Monday and likely Tuesday depending on track of
disturbance.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind the earlier frontal passage, a gusty westerly wind
overspreads the marine zones today. Small Craft Advisories cover
all waters for much of the day before dropping off early this
evening. However, based on the wind forecast, these may need to
be extended through the evening and early overnight period over
the southern waters. Winds shift to northwesterly on Friday with
some gusts that may approach 15 to 20 knots at times.

The better surge of winds come over the weekend as a warm front
tracks through the waters on Saturday afternoon followed by a
cold front on Sunday morning. This results in a shift from
southerly winds over to west-northwesterlies. For Sunday, gusts
up to 25 to 30 knots are possible, potentially even reaching
gale force at times.

SCA winds likely diminish sometime Monday and remain below SCA
levels Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Behind a clipper-like system, a breezy westerly wind will
dominate today with gusts to around 25 to 30 mph (35 to 45 mph
over the mountains). This lowers relative humidities into the 25
to 35 percent range east of the Alleghenies (35 to 50 percent
for the Alleghenies). Fire weather threats will likely loom
again today as fuels further dry out in this pattern.

Looking ahead to Friday, conditions are again dry, but with
winds decreasing as high pressure tracks in. Humidity levels
increase on Saturday as a warm front moves through. Further
drying and additional gusty northwesterly winds are expected on
Sunday behind a strong cold front. While rain chances exist this
weekend, a wetting rain is not looking likely.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...BRO

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion