568
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for western Garrett County for
tonight due to accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches and ice
accumulation of up to a glaze. The threat for a Major winter storm
continues for this weekend with very cold temperatures expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next
week.
- 2) Wintry precipitation over portions of the Alleghenies late
this afternoon through Thursday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next
week.
Arctic high pressure will build north of the local area Friday night
into Saturday and settle over southern Quebec providing a classic
cold air damming event. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will start
overrunning the sfc bdry across the south Fri and expand northward
into our area Saturday afternoon. After review of all available 12Z
deterministic, ensemble guidance including AIFS shows the 12Z
Canadian and EC models remained consistent to their previous runs,
while the 12Z GFS trended more northwestward compared to prior runs
from 24 hrs ago. The 12Z EC also trended colder aloft in the 850-700
mb layer lessening the threat of mixed precip especially over the
northern half of the fcst area, but still with a significant fzra
threat for St. Mary`s County. Probability of a foot of snow or more
is now roughly 50% areawide, except south of the Capital Beltway
where mixed precip is becoming increasingly likely, particularly
across St. Mary`s County. The heavy snow combined with very cold
temperatures in the teens will result in a high impact winter storm
areawide with potentially life-threatening conditions. After the
storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk
of hypothermia, power, phone and shortage of supplies across the
region.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Wintry precipitation over portions of the
Alleghenies late this afternoon through Thursday morning.
A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight as a cold
front approaches from the west. The cold front pushes across the
forecast area overnight and into Thursday morning, yielding wintry
precipitation along the Alleghenies. Upslope snow showers will
continue as freezing rain begins mixing in this evening. A wintry
mix persist through early Thursday morning with total snow
accumulation of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations around a light
glaze expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7
AM Thursday.
Further east, dry conditions are expected to continue as overnight
low temperatures hover right at or above freezing.
Temperatures continue to warm with highs in the 40s to low 50s
(30s in the Alleghenies) on Thursday. Additionally, in the wake
of multiple frontal passages, wind gust of 25-35 mph are
possible along the ridges. Locally higher wind gusts up to 40
mph are possible. Winds decrease on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the end of the week as dry weather
continues. Gusty southerly winds continue with LLWS likely across
most terminals with 30-50 degree directional shear and 40-50 kts at
2kft ALG. Southerly winds today shift to westerly on Thursday,
diminishing slightly overnight. Winds increase during the day on
Thursday, blowing around 10 knots and gusting around 20 knots. Winds
diminish again Thursday night before shifting to northwesterly and
increasing throughout the day on Friday. NW winds gust 15 to 20
knots beginning Friday afternoon and persisting through the
overnight.
Snow is expected to overspread the region from southwest to
northeast Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday evening.
Main window of heavy snow accumulation will be between 00Z Sun to
18Z Sun with some mixed precip possible after 18Z Sun. Precip should
end by 06Z Monday. Probability of seeing a foot of snow is now just
over 50%.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5AM Thursday morning
for south winds blowing 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
expected. Winds shift to westerly Thursday morning and are expected
to remain below SCA criteria through Friday morning. The exception
will be in the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay where winds
briefly gust 15 to 20 knots Thursday afternoon. Additional Small
Craft Advisories may be needed.
Northwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots over the waters beginning Friday
afternoon and persist through the overnight. Small Craft
Advisories are likely during this time, with cold temperatures
leading to possible Freezing Spray.
Gale conditions are possible across the waters Friday night.
Freezing Spray is also possible Friday night into Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected Fri night through the first half of next
week. Water levels are expected to bottom out at 1 to 2 ft below
MLLW Saturday morning and may extend into Monday as NW winds
strengthen.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for MDZ008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MDZ509.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion