549
FXUS61 KLWX 081836
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
236 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Increasing confidence in tidal flooding later this weekend due
to increased southerly flow combined with high astronomical
tides. See the Coastal Flooding section below for more
information.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Sunny & mild conditions continue through the end of the
  week.

- 2) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to arrive Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunny & mild conditions continue through the end
of the week.

Current surface analysis depicts that the cold front has largely
pushed through the region this morning. In its wake, dry air builds
in from the west as high pressure moves in overhead. A few wind
gusts could reach around 20 knots late this afternoon before
diminishing overnight as the front fully transitions out of the
region. Temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 70s today & tomorrow
as upper-level ridging briefly builds over the Appalachians, with
dewpoints ranging generally in the 30s across most areas. As most of
CONUS remains quiet off to our west, clear skies and light winds
should continue to dominate over the next 36-48 hours ahead of any
potential remnants of Hurricane Isaias.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to arrive Saturday
night.


Latest guidance show rain associated with remnants of Isaias
arriving in central VA Saturday evening, a little quicker than what
it was shown yesterday, and spreading northeast across the rest of
the fcst area late Saturday night, reaching the Susquehanna River by
12Z Sunday. The rain will be moderately intense during the overnight
hours Sat night through Sunday morning, and begin to diminish in
intensity mid afternoon Sunday as mid-level dry slot begins to move
in from the southwest. Ensemble guidance shows generally one to two
inches of rain falling, with the heaviest/most intense rainfall
falling in a roughly 12-hr period from 06Z-18Z Sun. Given the long
duration and stratiform type, no flooding is expected. As for the
risk of severe wx, if it were to occur, it would be Sunday night,
with the greatest risk south of Point Lookout into the VA Tidewater
region. Some showers could linger into Monday morning as the mid-
level circulation crosses the area.

A strong cold front associated with a deepening northern stream
trough is then fcst to cross the area Tue night bringing autumn
chill for the middle and second half of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

In the immediate wake of the cold front, clear & dry conditions are
expected to persist over the region over the next 36-48 hours.
Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated across all terminals in
the near term as high pressure builds overhead. KCHO could see a bit
more cloud cover between Friday and Saturday as tropical remnants
from Hurricane Isaias begin to push north, but VFR conditions are
still expected to prevail through Saturday morning.

Breezier winds from this afternoon will diminish overnight, flowing
out of the W to WNW. Winds could begin to shift more northeasterly
on Saturday.

Rain is expected Saturday night through mid-afternoon Sunday,
becoming lighter and more showery Sunday evening. A thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out Sunday night. Winds should strengthen Saturday
night into Sunday as pressure gradient tightens. Wouldn`t rule out
some LLWS if a strong inversion develops. Showers should end by
midday Monday. Expect IFR conditions late Sunday night through
Sunday night with conditions improving Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds diminish below SCA criteria over the Chesapeake Bay later
tonight. Light northwesterly winds shift easterly on Saturday,
becoming gustier by Sunday as tropical remnants from Hurricane
Isaias begin to track east over the Mid-Atlantic. Additional SCAs
remain a likelihood at this point until any remaining tropical
remnants move through.

SCA conditions are likely starting Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. Another period of SCA conditions is likely Tue night
into Wed with gales possible.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding seems likely at sensitive locations Sunday
evening due to rising water levels due to strengthening SE or S
winds combined with high astronomical tides due to a New Moon.
Until then, tide levels remain below action stage.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion