599
FXUS61 KLWX 011416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings in the western zones have
expired. Cooler temperatures will linger this weekend with
frost/freeze concerns again each night through the weekend.
There may be enough cloud cover to prevent such headlines
tonight; however, clear skies and light winds could lead to a
Freeze Watch for western zones Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Frost and/or freezing temperatures likely, especially west
  of the Blue Ridge Mountains, through the weekend as cooler
  temperatures continue.

- 2) Showers remain possible at times next week as temperatures
  rise to near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and/or freezing temperatures likely,
especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, through the weekend
as cooler temperatures continue.

Below average temperatures each night over the weekend could
lead to Frost and Freeze headlines. As of now, a good deal of
cloud cover tonight may prohibit areas of Frost and keep
temperatures a few degrees above Freezing criteria in the
Appalachians and Shenandoah Valley. Temperatures may be
colder Saturday night and could be accompanied by light winds
and clear skies. This setup could lead to Freezing temperatures;
thus, a Freeze Watch may be issued shortly this morning for
Saturday night and early Sunday morning for the Appalachians
and Shenandoah Valley. Temperatures could stay chilly Sunday
night. In terms of weather, most areas will be dry. There could
be a couple of showers or a clap of thunder too in western
Maryland and parts of northeastern West Virginia. Temperatures
will be cool during the day with highs in the lower to middle
60s, not just this afternoon but each day through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers remain possible at times next week as
temperatures rise to near or above normal.

Closed low/longwave troughing will remain centered near/north of the
Great Lakes early next week. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will become positioned in the western Atlantic. Southerly
winds will become a bit gusty during the daytime, and the ensuing
warm advection will bring temperatures back closer to or even above
normal. Some areas could reach 80 on Tuesday. There are some
uncertainties with how exactly the trough evolves, but a frontal
zone will be slowly approaching from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday. Some showers could reach the northwestern half of the
forecast area as embedded shortwaves pivot through, but overall
these days should be drier.

At some point during the middle of the week, a digging shortwave
trough will amplify the pattern and push the cold front across the
area. This front will bring higher rain chances, and depending on
timing, potentially thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend back down
the second half of the week in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers are expected this afternoon with a PROB30
group at each TAF site. Primarily VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon with only brief restrictions possible during
precipitation. South/southwest winds remain light. Winds shift
northerly Saturday, remaining light blowing 5-10 knots.
Northwest winds increase on Sunday with gusts 15-20 knots
expected in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected each day.

Southerly winds will gust to 20 kt during the daytime Monday and
Tuesday. A shower or thunderstorm may reach MRB on Tuesday ahead of
an approaching frontal zone. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish below SCA criteria this afternoon with
south/southwest winds gusting up to 15 knots. Winds become more
southerly tonight and approach SCA criteria due to southerly
channeling. A brief window of gusts 15 to 20 knots is possible
for a few hours this evening with additional advisories
possible. Small Craft Advisories are likely Saturday night into
Sunday as a nearby coastal low yields northwest winds gusting up
to 25 knots across the waters.

Small Craft Advisories will be likely Monday and Tuesday in
southerly flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion