180
FXUS61 KLWX 030743
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this afternoon into
this evening. The Dense Fog Advisory for Extreme Western
Allegany, Eastern Garrett, and western Mineral Counties was
extended through 8 AM.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record high temperatures are expected today and
Saturday.
2) A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing
widespread rainfall and dropping temperatures.
3) Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through
midweek with cooler temperatures expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record high temperatures are expected today
and Saturday.
Low clouds and drizzle are ongoing early this morning across the
bulk of the forecast area, with a CAD wedge well established
across much of the Mid-Atlantic. The cloud deck intersects
portions of the east facing slopes of the Alleghenies, where a
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 8 AM.
Low pressure will track well to our north today through the
St. Lawrence Valley, causing the CAD wedge to erode and and a
warm front to lift northward through the area. Early morning low
clouds should break up from southwest to northeast over the
course of the morning, potentially lingering until just past
noon across far northeastern Maryland. Mostly sunny skies are
expected once the front lifts through, with all locations
experiencing mostly sunny skies during the mid-late afternoon.
Deep mixing to the south of the front will enable temperatures
to climb into the lower 80s at lower elevations, and 70s across
the higher elevations and far northeast Maryland. A few showers
may form to the west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, but the
vast majority of locations should remain dry. Winds this
afternoon will gust to around 20 mph out of the south to
southwest.
Temperatures remain mild overnight tonight, with temperatures
holding in the 60s. These temperatures could potentially
challenge record high minimum temperatures at some sites (see
Climate section below for details). Saturday will feature
similar conditions to today, minus the early morning low clouds.
Temperatures may run a couple of degrees warmer than today,
with highs at lower elevations forecast to reach into the mid
80s. Such temperatures would challenge record high temperatures
for the date (see Climate section). A few showers, or
potentially a thunderstorm or two could be possible again
tomorrow afternoon, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge.
Coverage of showers and storms is once again expected to be low,
with most locations remaining dry.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing
widespread rainfall and dropping temperatures.
A deep area of low pressure will track well to our north across
northern Ontario on Sunday, while upper troughing digs southward
over the Great Lakes. This system will drive a strong cold front
southeastward toward the area. A period of steady rainfall
appears likely Sunday morning in advance of the cold front, with
most locations receiving somewhere in the neighborhood of a
quarter to a half of an inch of rain. The morning timing of the
frontal passage and stratiform rain out ahead of the front
should help to limit destabilization and the resultant threat
for thunderstorms. The front should clear the forecast area by
mid-afternoon. Winds will shift to out of the west to northwest
behind the front, and skies should gradually clear out from west
to east. Much cooler air will start to filter in by Sunday
night, as temperatures drop back into the 30s and 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through
midweek with cooler temperatures expected.
In the wake of a cold front, temperatures on Monday will be 10
degrees colder when compared to Sunday. There will be a large spread
in high temperatures as cooler air moves in with highs ranging from
the upper 40s in the Alleghenies to the mid 60s in central
Virginia. Surface high pressure originating from Canada moves
overhead through midweek, bringing continued below normal
temperatures. By Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 50s
for most with higher elevations in the 40s. Overall, dry
conditions and below normal temperatures are expected through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR conditions are ongoing at the terminals early this morning,
with low clouds and drizzle present. A warm front will lift
northward through this morning, clearing out the low clouds and
drizzle from south to north. Conditions should improve back to
VFR at all terminals by early afternoon. South to southwesterly
winds will gust to around 20 knots this afternoon. VFR
conditions continue through Saturday, with gusts to around 20
knots out of the south possible again during the afternoon
hours. A stray shower can`t be ruled out either afternoon,
especially near MRB, but chances favor all terminals remaining
dry. That will change on Sunday as a strong cold front
approaches from the northwest. Rain, and sub-VFR conditions may
be possible for a few hours Sunday morning. Winds shift to out
of the west to northwest and conditions improve back to VFR
Sunday afternoon.
Northwest winds are expected across all terminals Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of a cold front. Winds blow 5 to 10 knots each day with
gusts between 15 and 20 knots in the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected each day.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are easterly over the waters early this morning, but they
will turn south to southwesterly later this morning as a warm
front lifts northward. SCAs are in effect within south to
southwesterly flow later this afternoon into this evening, with
gusts to around 20 kt expected. Winds remain southerly tonight
through Sunday morning, with additional SCAs likely Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Winds shift to out of the
west, and then eventually northwest behind a cold front on
Sunday. Northwesterly flow continues through the day Monday,
with gusts potentially nearing low-end SCA levels Monday
morning.
Northwest winds gust up to 20 knots Monday morning with Small Craft
Advisories likely. Winds diminish in the afternoon through the
overnight before northwest winds near Small Craft Advisory criteria
Tuesday afternoon. Winds increase further Tuesday night with
additional Advisories likely.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are slowly increasing within southerly flow, and will
remain slightly elevated through Saturday. A few locations may
reach Action stage over the next few tide cycles, but no
flooding is expected. Anomalies will decrease later Sunday into
early next week as winds turn northwesterly.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast for
today and Saturday. Below is a list of record daily
temperatures for our regional climate sites.
Record Daily Highs for April 3
Site High/Year(s) Set
DCA 87/1963
BWI 88/1963
IAD 86/1981
DMH 89/1963
NAK 84/1912
HGR 85/1963
MRB 88/1963
CHO 88/1963
Record Daily High and Warm Lows for April 4
Site High/Year(s) Set Warm Low/Year(s) Set
DCA85/201166/1981
BWI 86/2011 63/1892
IAD85/201163/1981
DMH 87/201166/2025
NAK83/201160/2025
HGR81/201160/1974
MRB85/201163/1981
CHO88/201164/1974
Period of Record (POR) context...
.Washington DC area (DCA)...
Weather records for the Washington DC area have been recorded
at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA)
since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from
1871 to 1944. Temperature records for the Washington DC area
extend back to January 1872.
.Baltimore MD area (BWI)...
Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at
what is now Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record
consists of that data back to 1950, and observations taken in
downtown Baltimore from 1871 through 1949. Temperature records
for the Baltimore MD area extend back to July 1872.
.Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD)...
Weather records for the Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area have
been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International
Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official record consists solely
of data recorded at the airport.
.Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH)...
Weather records for the Baltimore Downtown MD area have been
recorded at what is now the Maryland Science Center (KDMH)
since 1999. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1999, and observations taken in the City of Baltimore
from July 1950 through 1998. Data is missing from June 3 of 2020
through August 14 of 2022 when the observing system had to be
removed due to a large construction project.
.Annapolis MD area (NAK)...
Weather records for the Annapolis MD area have been recorded at
what is now the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy (KNAK) since
October 11 of 2001. The official weather record consists of that
data back to 2001, and observations that were taken between the
Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy and the Annapolis Police Barracks
from July of 1894 through October 10 of 2001.
.Hagerstown MD area (HGR)....
Weather records for the Hagerstown MD area have been recorded at
what is now Hagerstown Regional Airport (KHGR) since October of
1998. The official weather record consists of that data back to
October of 1998, and observations taken one mile east of
Hagerstown from 1899 through September of 1998.
.Martinsburg WV area (MRB)...
Weather records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded
at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd
Field (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of
that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown
Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.
.Charlottesville VA area (CHO)...
Weather records for the Charlottesville VA area have been
recorded at what is now Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)
since April 20 of 1961. The official weather record consists of
that data back to April 20 of 1961, and observations taken two
miles west of downtown Charlottesville from 1983 through April
19 of 1961.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
evening for MDZ008.
Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
MDZ501-510.
VA...None.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
WVZ503.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ530-535>538-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
this evening for ANZ531>534-539>541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion