436
FXUS61 KLWX 151521
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1021 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring increasing clouds, warmer temperatures
and a few spotty showers to the area through midday today. A
strong cold front will cross the region tonight into Sunday
leading to another round of gusty winds. A secondary front will
follow Sunday night before high pressure briefly returns Monday.
Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday into the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front, stretching across northern West Virginia into
west-central Virginia, will continue to move toward the
northeast the remainder of the day. A thin line of rain showers
has developed to the north and east of the warm front and are
currently moving across metro Washington DC and parts of
southern Maryland. The line is weakening into widely scattered
sprinkles. A cold front will follow tonight and bring additional
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two to much of the
Appalachian Front and parts of central and Northeast Maryland.
Rain amounts will be generally light and most places downwind of
the Appalachians into the Piedmont of Virginia will get no
rainfall due to the downsloping and drying effect from a gusty
west- northwest to northwest wind that will set up behind the
front. Speaking of winds behind the cold front, northwest will
quickly increase and overspread the northwestern one-third of
our region by late tonight. Winds could gust up or exceed 40 to
50 mph at elevations above 3000 feet. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for western Grant and western Pendleton Counties. Winds
will be less gusty farther east and south and at lower
elevations. Temperatures tonight will be relatively mild since
cold air advection behind the cold front will be just getting
started. Lows mainly in the lower to middle 50s along and east
of the Shenandoah Valley, while the upper 30s to upper 40s will
be mainly west into the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to push southeastward through the
day Sunday. The increasingly strong wind field will soon
encompass a large part of the northwestern three-quarters of our
region by Sunday afternoon. Winds could gust 40 to 50 mph in
mainly locations west of the Shenandoah Valley and north of US
50 Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Little to no rain
showers across the region Sunday as a downsloping wind will
likely eliminate this aspect. With drying conditions anticipated
through Sunday into Sunday evening and low relative humidity
values, along with strong northwest winds, we are considering
issuing a Fire Weather Watch and possible Wind Advisory for the
day Sunday. The current Wind Advisory may need to be expanded
across the rest of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands
(especially on the eastern downslope side), as well as the Blue
Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, northern Maryland and far
northern/northwestern Virginia. A second pressure surge that is
expected to move across the region later this afternoon into
the Sunday evening in association with a secondary cold front
could help us determine if an expansion of the Wind Advisory and
any Fire Weather Watch is needed or not. Winds should gradually
subside for much of the area Sunday night, though it will
likely remain breezy for many areas well into the evening behind
the secondary cold front. The high temperature on Sunday could
very well occur sometime tonight after midnight, or around late
morning should there be more sun than clouds with a dry
downsloping effect behind the cold front. It does look like
throughout the day Sunday, temperatures could hold steady until
around mid- afternoon at the very least before steadily dropping
through the evening and night. This will all be determined with
regards to frontal passage timing.
Previous discussion...
Monday looks like another dry and breezy day, with gusts likely
ranging anywhere from 25 to 40 mph depending on how deeply we
mix and just how potent the residual wind field aloft is. Winds
should finally abate Monday night as high pressure builds in.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low amplitude disturbance embedded in zonal flow aloft will
rapidly approach from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Large scale ascent
associated with this disturbance will lead to an increase in cloud
cover, and will likely result in some light precipitation as well.
Air may be just cold enough at the onset of precipitation for some
snowflakes to mix in, especially at higher elevations. Some very
light accumulations could be possible in the mountains Tuesday
morning. The precipitation type should eventually switch over to
rain for all as warmer air starts to work in from the west. High
temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 40s to around 50,
but could be a bit cooler if precipitation persists through much of
the day.
High pressure is expected to build to our north on Wednesday,
resulting in dry conditions and light winds. Temperatures are
forecast to rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s beneath a mix of
sun and clouds.
Spread in model guidance becomes extremely large beyond Wednesday
as a very complex weather pattern unfolds across the CONUS, with
split flow and the potential for multiple cutoffs to develop.
Ensemble guidance has high temperatures ranging anywhere from the
upper 30s to the low 70s on Thursday and Friday. Depending on how
the pattern develops, rain could be possible at times, but
confidence in the forecast details remains very low this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few sprinkles could occur the remainder of this morning near
IAD, DCA, BWI and MTN as a warm front to the southwest
approaches and a line of rain showers precedes it. Otherwise, a
passing cold front could bring a few showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to MRB this afternoon and to IAD, DCA, BWI and
MTN later this afternoon and this evening. Some LLWS is
possible if surface winds go light or maintain a more S/SE
component into the evening as winds increase and veer aloft.
Otherwise SE to S and eventually SW winds are expected through
tonight, becoming W late. Winds will gust around 15 knots this
afternoon. By this evening, southerly gusts of 15-20 knots
become more likely, though gusts may be occasional given reduced
diurnal mixing. Once the cold front crosses, an uptick in wind
gusts is likely.
Blustery conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday with
a relative minimum during the overnight hours. An initial wave
of gusts is possible (25-35 knots) Sunday morning in the wake of
the cold front and as diurnal mixing increases. Gusts may level
off a bit before increasing again later in the day into the
early evening as a secondary front surges through. Gusts to
around 40 knots may be possible during this time. Monday will be
breezy as well with 20-30 knot gusts likely. All of this is out
of a west to northwest direction. High pressure building in
Monday night will cause winds to become much lighter.
Sub-VFR ceilings and rain appear possible at times during the day
Tuesday. VFR conditions will return for Wednesday. Winds are
expected to be light and variable on Tuesday, and then light out of
the north on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will become southerly to southwesterly this afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts by. A few sprinkles are possible.
Tonight, a strong cold front swings across from west to east.
This will first increase south/southwest winds into SCA levels
this evening, before switching to the west/northwest by morning.
Although a few rogue gusts near gale force can`t be ruled out
with the immediate frontal passage early Sunday morning, the
stronger winds are expected during the day as mixing and dry air
advection increases. A secondary front could boost winds heading
into late afternoon or early evening. For now, a Gale Watch
covers waters north of North Beach MD and the upper tidal
Potomac River, but may need to be extended/expanded based on
trends in the exact timing and strength of the fronts. SCA gusts
likely linger especially over the wider waters Sunday night.
Additional breezy conditions are likely Monday, and could
approach gale force again. Winds subside Monday night.
Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will vary in direction over the course of the day on Tuesday
and should be predominantly out of the north on Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A brief reprieve from the low humidities this afternoon as a
warm front lifts through the region. This will be followed by a
cold front tonight which could bring some light rain along with
it. However, the chances for a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch
or more) seem pretty low at this time.
Gusty westerly winds are expected Sunday in the wake of this
cold frontal passage. Additionally, humidities will once again
drop significantly as drier air moves in. Even drier conditions
are expected Monday with a bit less in terms of wind. However,
both days will pose a threat for adverse fire weather conditions,
assuming the rain event tonight doesn`t overperform.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for MDZ008.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...DHOF
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion