531
FXUS61 KLWX 130156
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
956 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire. A few
leftover showers remain over southern MD and the northern neck with
calmer conditions overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions are expected behind a cold front tonight into
Saturday, before chances for severe thunderstorms return on Sunday.

- 2) A cooler and drier pattern that settles over the region
  early next week will give way to a return to warm and humid
  conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions are expected behind a cold front
tonight into Saturday, before chances for severe thunderstorms
return on Sunday.

The Severe T-Storm Watch has been allowed to expire. The last of the
organized shower and thunderstorm activity continues to exit east
across southern MD and the middle/lower portions of the bay. A
lingering isolated shower cannot be ruled out as the front continues
south from central MD and the northern Shenandaoh Valley over the
next 1 to 3 hrs. Once the front passes expect clouds to gradually
decrease from west to east with lowering dewpoints. Drier air is
already evident in the Alleghenies as of 940pm with dewpoints around
60 degrees. Expect this drier air to advect east by early Saturday
morning. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected during the
overnight period.

Mostly sunny skies and less humid conditions are expected Saturday
in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal passage. It will still be hot,
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90, but it will feel
noticeably cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s
and low 60s.

By Sunday, another shortwave disturbance will rotate around the base
of the broad upper low located to our north, tracking through the
Ohio Valley. As this shortwave approaches, the low-level response
ahead of it will draw deeper moisture northward into our area within
southerly flow. Dewpoints will climb into the lower 70s once again
while height falls simultaneously occur aloft. The net result of
that will be building instability. This instability will overlap
with increasing wind fields aloft. The combination of increasing
instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the development
of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which
could be severe. There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance
with respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as
of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue
Ridge. SPC currently has much of the forecast area outlooked in a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. The main threats
with storms will damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning. The system`s cold front will move through
Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which
will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler and drier pattern that settles over the
region early next week will give way to a return to warm and humid
conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

Upper level troughing is forecast to build over the region early
next week and remain in place through Wednesday. This pattern will
bring much cooler conditions to the region with daily high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s favored Monday
through Wednesday. A combination of mid level disturbances and
moisture will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy with on and off
chances for showers.

Model ensembles have the troughy pattern starting to break down on
Thursday allowing warm and humid conditions to return to the region.
Increasing moisture and temperatures along with a potential frontal
passage will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Depending on the strength of the upper level shortwave
driving the cold front, there could be a risk for strong
thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some pockets of MVFR remain over the next 1 to 2 hrs for terminals
south and east of KBWI/KDCA and toward KRIC. Expect improving
aviation impacts overnight with VFR conditions prevailing. The cold
front remains draped from BWI through IAD and over to EKN. This
front will sag south over the next 1 to 3 hours changing the winds
from the west and southwest to the northwest overnight into Saturday
morning. Speeds will remain less than 10 kts. An additional isolated
shower cannot be ruled out overnight although most will remain dry.

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected on Saturday, with winds
generally light out of the west to northwest. Prevailing VFR
conditions are expected again on Sunday, but an additional round of
thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest outside
of any thunderstorms.

Mid level broken to overcast clouds are favored over all terminals
Monday through Wednesday of next week. At this time, cloud decks are
likely to be VFR, but some lower clouds will be possible at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Sporadic SCA conditions continue over the next 1 to 3 hours for
portions of the waters as the front drops south. The severe weather
threat has come to a close with lingering showers over the lower
waters of the bay and tidal Potomac. Winds will shift from the west
and southwest to northwest overnight as the front passes through.
Expect gusts less than 15 kts.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters Saturday.
Winds turn out of the south on Sunday. SCAs will likely be needed
within southerly flow during the day on Sunday. SMWs may also
potentially be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

Sub-SCA conditions are most likely Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/EST
AVIATION...KJP/EST
MARINE...KJP/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion