848
FXUS61 KLWX 260141
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
841 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain across the Mid-Atlantic tonight,
followed by a cold front crossing from west to east Wednesday
morning. A second stronger cold front will follow Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Low pressure will linger over
southeastern Canada while high pressure builds across the
Midwest and Tennessee Valley through Friday. High pressure will
move overhead Saturday, then move offshore Sunday into early
next week as the next systems approach from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Primary low pressure ahead of a closed upper low is located over
Wisconsin this evening. A complex lead frontal system has weaker
low centers in southern Michigan and eastern Kentucky. A cooler
airmass remains wedged east of the Appalachians, with the
warm/wedge front located across central Delaware, southern
Maryland, and south central Virginia.
Rain associated with a lead shortwave will be exiting
northeastern Maryland shortly. There has been enough of a dry
slot behind this wave for clouds to clear out. Given winds are
light to calm northwest of the wedge front, some fog and low
clouds are developing. Some fog could be locally dense, but
thinking it should be brief before the next wave of clouds moves
in. Showers are noted on radar quickly approaching from
southwest Virginia. Additional showers will stream northward
overnight, perhaps associated loosely with the forcing from
current convection in the deep south. Most of the showers will
likely be focused east of the Blue Ridge, although some
scattered light showers could occur elsewhere. Along and
southeast of the wedge front, there could be enough instability
for a few rumbles of thunder.
The current forecast has the warm front slowly lifting northward
overnight, though suspect models are accomplishing this feat too
quickly as is often the bias with overnight warm fronts this
time of year. Either way, temperatures won`t fall from where
they are this evening, and could start rising where the warm
front is able to punch through.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain and low clouds are expected to move swiftly east of the
area as the first cold front moves offshore Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday afternoon, a second (stronger) cold front will
surge across the upper Ohio River Valley and Appalachians. This
second front will then reach the metros by Wednesday evening.
Impressive pressure rises and cold air advection will ensue
behind this second front. Due to the abrupt change in airmass, a
period of gusty winds is likely right as/just after the front
passes during the afternoon and evening. Gusts could exceed 40
mph, especially over the higher terrain.
Although cold air advection continues through the night, the
strongest pressure rises will have passed. Occasionally gusty
winds will likely continue with more frequent gusts at higher
elevations during the overnight hours. Along and west of the
Allegheny Front, a trailing wave may result in a few snow
showers Wednesday night into Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning.
Wind trajectories aren`t the most favorable, but at least a
brief overlap of moisture and lift in the DGZ may result in a
quick coating to an inch in spots.
A few flurries may linger over the Appalachians crest Thursday.
Elsewhere, passing clouds and blustery conditions are expected.
It will be much colder Thursday compared to Wednesday by about
25 to 30 degrees areawide.
Yet another pressure surge likely keeps winds elevated through
Thursday night (especially at higher elevations). Combined with
plummeting temperatures, this will result in wind chills in the
20s and even teens Thursday evening (single digits over the
higher terrain). Another wave of snow showers is possible along
and west of the Allegheny Front Thursday night, as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We`ll remain within a cyclonic flow regime on Friday as a vertically
stacked area of low pressure centered over Quebec continues to
circulate off to our northeast. Northwesterly flow will continue to
advect cold air into the region, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping
to around -10 to -12 C. Even with deep mixing, this will only yield
high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s for most (20s
mountains). Northwesterly winds gusting to around 30 to 40 mph
will make it feel even colder, with wind chills holding in the
20s through much of the day. There will be a mix of sun and clouds
across the area, with more clouds than sun off toward the northwest
(closer to influence from the Great Lakes) and less cloud cover
further southeast. A few upslope snow showers will also be possible
in the Alleghenies, with additional light accumulations of a coating
to two inches possible. A stray flurry or two could also sneak east
of the mountains, especially during the afternoon hours.
High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley for Friday night
into Saturday. With mostly clear skies and light to calm winds,
Friday night looks like it should be the coldest night of the
week, with temperatures dropping back into the upper teens and
lower 20s for most (mid to upper 20s in downtown DC and Baltimore).
Dry conditions and light winds are expected on Saturday, but high
clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next system approaching
from the center of the country. High temperatures on Saturday are
forecast to reach into the low to mid 40s for most (30s mountains).
Forecast uncertainty starts to increase markedly by Sunday and
Monday. On the synoptic scale, most model guidance shows a broad
longwave trough becoming established across much of the CONUS, with
flanking ridges in the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic. A
shortwave trough and associated surface low are progged to ascend
through the frontside of the ridge on Sunday, tracking through the
Great Lakes region. Such a track will lead to warm advection locally
atop a retreating cold airmass. Various deterministic and ensemble
solutions differ with respect to the timing of the onset of the
precipitation, and also with respect to how much cold air is left in
place. If the precipitation were to move in earlier, some freezing
rain could be possible, especially across higher elevation locations
to the west of the Blue Ridge. Model spread remains large with this
system, so for now it`s just something to monitor over the course of
the week. Eventually precipitation should transition over to rain
for all locations, with temperatures climbing into the 40s.
By Monday, model spread is particularly large. From a probabilistic
perspective, most solutions favor dry conditions, but there is still
around 30 percent of ensemble members that produce some light
precipitation. Amongst the members that do produce precipitation,
there`s fairly good agreement that it would occur in the form of
rain. There`s also large spread with respect to high temperatures,
with ensemble guidance showing high temperatures anywhere from the
upper 30s to the lower 60s.
Uncertainty increases even further as the next system approaches
heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A challenging aviation forecast tonight with localized
development of fog and low clouds. The first wave of rain has
pushed off to the northeast, with clearing skies in its wake.
Winds are light to calm northwest of a warm front east of
Interstate 95, so some patchy fog is developing along with low
clouds at BWI, MTN, and MRB. No guidance had a great handle on
how conditions will evolve, with some suggestion of highly
changeable ceilings and visibility. The next wave of clouds and
light showers is approaching from southwest Virginia, so this
may at least put a damper on fog development. The low clouds
could attempt to clear out as well, especially for BWI/MTN.
Meanwhile, light and variable winds are found for all terminals,
which is likely resulting in some low level wind shear given
southwest winds of 35-40 kt within a couple thousand feet of
the ground. The threat for LLWS should diminish as the night
progresses since the low level jet should slowly slide eastward
while the advancing warm front turns prevailing winds more
southerly. Another round of showers is likely for many areas
after midnight through the predawn hours Wednesday. Confidence
is higher for MVFR to IFR ceilings during this time. The first
cold front will pass the area Wednesday morning resulting in a
return to VFR.
A second (stronger) cold front will surge across the area late
Wednesday afternoon and evening resulting in a period of gusty
winds shifting to the west and northwest. Gusts of 30 to 40
knots are possible as the front crosses in the evening. Blustery
conditions likely continue at times through Thursday with VFR.
VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Winds will
gust to around 25-35 knots out of the northwest during the day
Friday. Winds will decrease rapidly Friday night into Saturday as
high pressure builds overhead.
&&
.MARINE...
At least occasional gusts of 15-25 knots are possible in
southerly/southeasterly flow heading into tonight, especially
over the wider waters south of Sandy Point MD. However, low-
level stability may result in periods of lulls. A stalled warm
front may also keep winds lighter north of Sandy Point. Winds
will shift slightly from southeast to southwest Wednesday with
somewhat occasional gusts likely continuing. A sharp wind shift
to the west and northwest with gusts to near gale force is
expected Wednesday evening as a second cold front surges across.
The winds currently look strongest Wednesday evening across the
northern waters which is where a Gale Warning has been issued.
Blustery conditions will continue through Thursday in northwest
flow. At least high-end SCA conditions appear likely within west to
northwesterly flow on Friday, and low-end Gale gusts can`t be ruled
out. SCA conditions may linger into Friday night, but winds are
expected to rapidly decrease late Friday night into Saturday as high
pressure builds over the waters.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for MDZ008.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ530-531-
538-539.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ530-531-535-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ532>534-
537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion