812
FXUS61 KLWX 060846
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Saturday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today along and
east of US-29.
- Turning cooler this weekend with dry weather expected much of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today
along and east of US-29.
There has been an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity in
across northern VA and central MD early this morning, especially
in the last hour or so. This activity is moving steadily to the
northeast at 25 to 30 kts east of a slow moving cold front
located east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Radar estimates and
gauge reports indicate hourly rain rates around half inch and as
high as three quarters of an inch in spotty places. Additional
showers and possible thunderstorms are possible further
southeast along increased convergence along the front in a very
moist air mass for early November. While the showers are moving
steadily to the northeast, the showers may exhibit slow
eastward progression due to mid-upper level flow parallel to the
surface front. By early afternoon, most of the shower/tsra
activity should be confined to southern Maryland and exit the
area shortly after 21Z. Turning cooler overnight on
strengthening NW winds.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler this weekend with dry weather
expected much of next week.
Behind the departing cold front, expect a shift to a dry weather
pattern for the weekend and into much of next week. Northwesterly
cold air advection will support falling temperatures on Saturday as
highs drop into the mid 50s to low 60s (40s to low 50s for the
mountains). The trailing upper low passes overhead to the north
which should keep some cloud cover around. Residual gradients also
support a brisk wind at times with afternoon gusts around 20 to 30
mph, perhaps nearing 40 mph along the Allegheny Front. Winds remain
somewhat elevated into Saturday with a chilly night ahead. Forecast
lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with spots of low/mid 30s
around sheltered mountain and river valleys. Any frost generation
should be limited by the residual winds. High pressure tracks in
from the middle of the country by Sunday. After a cloudy start along
the Alleghenies, expect abundant sunshine for the day with highs
returning to the mid 60s along I-81 and south of I-66 in Virginia.
This comes with west-northwesterly breezes around 15 to 25 mph.
Another chilly night lies ahead with widespread lows in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Some patchy frost is possible where winds turn lighter.
The weather for the work week ahead appears mainly quiet. With the
upper pattern being amplified, a series of troughs pass by to the
north of the region. The initial height falls cross the northeastern
U.S. late Sunday which drags a dry cold front through the area. An
additional dry system follows suit passing by on Tuesday. The peak
in the warmth would be on Tuesday before temperatures fall again
during subsequent days. This would provide additional chances for
frost and/or freeze as overnight temperatures return to the 30s. By
late next week, an anomalous upper low settles overhead which may
support a rather cold period heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and possible thunderstorms expected through about 16Z,
mainly eastern terminals. Winds shifting to NW later today.
With a dry pattern running for this weekend into early next week,
VFR conditions are likely at all terminals. Behind a cold front,
Saturday`s northwesterly winds could gust to around 20 to 25 knots
before dropping to 15 to 20 knots on Sunday. A dry cold front tracks
in late Sunday which supports additional northwesterly breezes on
Monday before winds turn more southwesterly on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible across the lower
waters. Strengthening NW winds late tonight into Saturday will
result in solid SCA conditions. SCA`s have been issued, which
will probably need to be extended into Sunday morning.
Behind the cold front, marine winds remain elevated through Sunday
afternoon which will likely require further Small Craft Advisories.
A dry cold front moves across the waters late Sunday which supports
another uptick in the winds for Monday. This should necessitate
additional advisories for portions of the waters. Gradients weaken
by Tuesday with gusts falling to around 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion