961
FXUS61 KLWX 191413
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1013 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increase wind gusts later this afternoon and expanded the Small
Craft Advisory.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong low pressure system could bring the threat for heavy
  rainfall and thunderstorms late Sunday night through Monday.

- Additional rain chances are expected by the middle
  of next week as an active upper level pattern continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong low pressure system could bring the
threat for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms late Sunday night
through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Showers associated with Arthur will be exiting far southern
Maryland in the next few hours. Weak high pressure will build
across the area tonight through early Sunday. The story for the
weekend will be lower humidity and seasonable temperatures.
Saturday will also feature gusty northwest winds

Low pressure across northern IL Sunday evening will track across
IN & OH Sunday night pushing a warm front through the area late
Sunday night/early Monday. Showers and storms are expected late
Sunday into early Monday across the Appalachian region,
spreading east across the rest of the area Monday. Some severe
storms are possible Monday afternoon in the hot and unstable air
mass couple with strong mid-level winds (i.e 40 kt at 500 mb).
The cold front is expected to push east of the area Monday night
ending the thunderstorm threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rain chances are expected by the middle
of next week as an active upper level pattern continues.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

In the wake of the cold front Tuesday, plenty of uncertainty remains
amongst the guidance. Some of the guidance has an upper level low
pressure system impacting the area late Wednesday through Friday
while other pieces of guidance have weak high pressure over the
region. Overall looking at more of typical summertime regime with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the
weekend. Coverage has yet to be determined given the features in
play. With the trough in place, expect temperatures at or just above
normal through the period. Any rain that we do see will be
beneficial given continued drought concerns. As for humidity, expect
a gradual uptick especially during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will provide dry weather through the weekend. Gusty
NW winds are expected this afternoon and Saturday with gusts up
to 25 kt. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely Monday, some
of which, could be severe with damaging winds before a cdfnt
crosses the area Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As clearing occurs this afternoon from northwest to southeast,
expect increasing west to northwest winds. Thought there would
be enough mixing and pressure rises to introduce Small Craft
Advisories for all waters at some point between this afternoon
and evening. Additional SCAs are likely Saturday. Winds
diminish Sat night as high pressure builds in.

Winds strengthen again Sunday night through Tue. Severe
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, which may require
SMWs.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530-531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ532-533-540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ536-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/EST
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion