745
FXUS61 KLWX 050133
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory extended through Wednesday.

Showers/sprinkles are diminishing in coverage this evening with
loss of daytime heating. It`s possible the remainder of the
night could be dry, although recent HRRR and RAP runs suggest
additional isolated-scattered showers could cross northern
portions of the CWA overnight as additional perturbations in
the mid level flow advect eastward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Enhanced fire weather threat Tuesday afternoon.

- 2) Beneficial rain midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Enhanced fire weather threat Tuesday
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Tuesday...Shortwave ridging builds in resulting in a subsidence
pattern. SSW flow is expected to strengthen advecting an
elevated mixed layer suppressing clouds and convective
potential. Model soundings indicate mixing potential up to 800
mb or 6 kft which would result in gusts up to 35 mph and Min Rh
in the mid 20s. Any showers today would be very brief and not
result in any significant increase in fuel moisture. For this
reason, a Fire SPS has been issued for tomorrow. Please refer to
Fire Weather Section for more details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Beneficial rain midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A potent UL trof moves over the Great Lks Wed, dragging a
cdfnt towards the local FA. Pre-frontal moisture will surge
into the area with PWs reaching 1-1.5". This will yield
widespread SHRA with a few TS Wed morn through Wed eve. Total
rainfall amounts with this portion look to range 0.25-0.5".

Secondary front moves south Thu, with overrunning precip expected.
Generally light amounts expected, another tenth to quarter inch.
Possibility of someone being south of heavier axis Wed and north of
axis on Wed resulting in local min in QPF. SVR threat rather low
with all midweek rain.

Temps decrease Thu with slight increase through the weekend. Some
waves possible through the weekend resulting in showers.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers/sprinkles are diminishing this evening with mid level
ceilings remaining. Additional scattered showers are possible
overnight across northern areas, so added a PROB30 to MRB. Some
forecast tools indicate LLWS at BWI and MTN overnight, but think
there is enough of a surface wind, coupled with minimal
directional change, to preclude this threat.

Southerly winds steadily increase Tuesday, with potential for
some 25-30 kt gusts by mid afternoon. Gusts decrease a bit
Tuesday night, but more 25 kt gusts are possible Wednesday.
Widespread showers Wed- Thu with MVFR cigs expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Allowed SCA for the interior waters to expire for tonight. Even
though winds have dropped off along the bay as well, expect an
increase overnight as land-water temperature differences invert.
Southerly winds steadily increase Tuesday, and all waters will
be in an advisory beginning at 10 AM. Extended this advisory
through Wednesday as confidence is high in continued gusty
southerly flow, with gusts up to 30 kt at times.

SCAs are then possible in N winds late Wed night through the
end of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Tuesday afternoon due to gusty winds 30 to 35 mph, low
humidities in the mid 20s, and fuel moisture between 8-10%.
The greatest risk for dangerous fire wx behavior is west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains where recent cool temperatures and freezes
have slowed down green-up. Greener vegetation east of the Blue
Ridge Mountains should preclude any fires from exhibiting
extreme fire behavior, but gusty winds of 30-35 mph may still
cause fire containment difficult even though fuels are not as
dry as they were two weeks ago.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CPB
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion