708
FXUS61 KLWX 021807
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Did bump up
precipitation chances across the western Alleghenies south of
Garrett Co. WV this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler than normal today with a spotty mountain shower or t-
storm. Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

2) Hot weather returns for the end of the week before a cold front
brings increasing rain chances early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler than normal today with a spotty mountain
shower or t-storm. Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

A sharpened trough and weak piece of shortwave energy remains draped
across central WV this afternoon. Spotty showers and t-storms
have popped along this boundary and across the higher terrain of
Pocahontas and Randolph counties in WV. A few showers have also
be noted along the higher ridges of Rockingham, Pendleton, and
Highland counties although most of this activity has fallen
apart given slightly drier air off to the east. This piece of
energy will gradually shift to the west and south through thus
evening as broad high pressure (1024-1028 mb) over central
Canada/Great Lakes region pushes south. Any rain amounts will be
limited with most locations remaining dry and under
partly/mostly sunny skies. The greatest confidence for showers
will be tied to the mountains (i.e Alleghenies & central Blue
Ridge) due in part to orographic lifting.

Meanwhile, coastal low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast
today before ejecting east toward the coastal GA/SC. Current 06z/12z
ensemble and deterministic guidance shoves this system further
south given the broad high building south from the Great Lakes/Ohio
River Valley. As a result, expect dry conditions for both Wednesday
and Thursday along with temperatures closer to seasonal norms. Highs
Wednesday will into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s mountains)
with mid to upper 80s (low 70s mountains) expected Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will fall back into the mid top upper 50s (low 50s
mountains). These values climb back into the upper 50s and mid 60s
under return flow Thursday night into Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot weather returns for the end of the week before a
cold front brings increasing rain chances early next week.

Surface high pressure will slide off the southeast coast by Friday
while upper level ridging builds across the southeastern US. The
forecast for Friday and Saturday is fairly high confidence under the
influence of the ridge. The main story for this period will be the
rise in temperatures, with some locations reaching the lower 90s
each day. However, dew point rises will be modest, likely staying in
the 50s, so the heat index will be close to the air temperature.
Most locations will remain dry through Saturday, although it`s
possible a few showers or storms could sneak into the northwestern
portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon or night depending
on the proximity of the forcing to the north.

Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday into early next week as models
differentiate in the strength and timing of northern stream
shortwaves and the subsequent breakdown of the southeast ridge. Some
guidance shows a more progressive trough while others attempt to
develop a closed low at some point. At the surface, a cold front
will drop southward toward the area Sunday, although the upper level
pattern will dictate whether it pushes through quickly or stalls out
nearby early next week. Thus chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase Sunday and Monday. If the timing of forcing aligns
with peak heating and a more potent trough, some strong to severe
thunderstorms could occur. Rain chances Monday and Tuesday will be
dependent on the position of the front and upper level features,
although there are hints high pressure may eventually wedge in from
the north. Temperatures will likely remain above normal Sunday, then
trend down behind the front.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A spotty shower or thunderstorm remains possible this afternoon west
of MRB/SHD, although the greatest chance is over the central
Appalachians (i.e KLWB/KBKW/KHSP/KCRW). Winds will remain out of the
north and northeast through Wednesday. Sustained speeds will remain
between 5-15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts down toward KLYH
and KRIC.

Significant weather is unlikely Friday and Saturday.
Light west to southwest winds are expected each day. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon or
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Still seeing some occasional 20 to 25 kt gusts over the open
waters of the bay and lower tidal Potomac this afternoon. Winds
will drop back below SCA levels later this afternoon and into
the evening as high pressure builds overhead.

No marine hazards are expected Wednesday and THursday as high
pressure moves overhead. Some near SCA level southerly channeling is
possible Thursday evening into Friday morning over the middle and
lower waters although confidence is low at this time. Winds will be
out of the north/northeast through Wednesday before switching back
to the south and southwest Thursday.

High pressure will slide off the southeast coast Friday and
Saturday. Winds may fluctuate between westerly and southerly. Some
marginal southerly channeling events could unfold along the bay
during each evening/overnight. A cold front will approach from the
north Sunday afternoon or evening and could bring some gusty
thunderstorms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will likely rise again through this evening, the
magnitude of which will depend on the position and strength of
low pressure developing off the coast. Additional minor tidal
flooding is most probable at Annapolis with Wednesday morning`s
high tide, but will monitor any potential quicker water rises
given the return of onshore flow tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion