519
FXUS61 KLWX 261410 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted PoPs downward from NBM for today. Continue to monitor
the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Daily precipitation chances today and tomorrow with
a strong cold front yielding a chance at severe weather on Tuesday.

- 2) Drier conditions return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily precipitation chances today and tomorrow with
a strong cold front yielding a chance at severe weather on
Tuesday.

12Z IAD sounding showed there is still an inversion above 500 mb
which may limit vertical growth of showers. While there is a bit
more moisture and steeper low-level lapse rates than yesterday,
I`m not certain that there will be a lot of convection today.
The sounding favors showers over thunderstorms due to inversion
aloft limiting vertical growth above the -10C isotherm. In
addition, Blended TPW and Advected Layered PW products currently
show dry air advection while models show neutral moisture advection
through the day. A ton of dry air is noted above 500 mb which
may also limit coverage.

On Tuesday, while the deep upper level trough pivots east across
the forecast area, a strong area of surface low pressure tracks
from the Great Lakes region towards New England. The associated
warm front lifts through the forecast area early Tuesday
morning ahead of the potent cold front pushing through later
Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. Despite morning rain
showers with the warm front, guidance continues to show plenty
of instability. Combined with ample shear, strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected. Currently primary hazard type looks
to be damaging wind gusts with heavy rainfall capable of Flash
Flooding. SPC has the entire forecast area with the exception
for western MD, in a slight risk for severe weather. The rest of
the forecast area is in a marginal risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return mid to late week.

In the wake of Tuesday`s frontal boundary, the associated low will
slowly meander towards the northeast over the next couple of days.
This should reduce rain chances overall, but spotty showers &
thunderstorms remain possible as this low slowly slides offshore of
New England late in the week. High pressure moves in overhead
towards the end of the week, bringing drier air and similar
conditions overall as the week prior, with highs in the low-to-mid
80s.

Heading into next weekend, a broad area of low pressure begins to
form over the Midwest and track eastward. As temperatures gradually
rise towards more normal July averages, this could bring additional
shower & thunderstorm chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and tomorrow
with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected today and tomorrow. A shower
or thunderstorm is possible mainly Sunday evening and again Monday
afternoon and evening, but confidence was too low for anything more
than a PROB30 for possible -SHRA in the TAFs for now. Winds will
generally vary between east and south the next couple days.

A strong frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms to the
terminals on Tuesday. Sub-VFR conditions are expected both in
the morning during rain showers and later in the afternoon as
strong to severe thunderstorms track across the forecast area.
Strong wind gusts, low ceilings, reduced visibilities, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning are all possible in the afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions could persist into Wednesday depending on how
slowly the front tracks offshore. Otherwise, prevailing VFR
conditions are anticipated through the end of the week. Northwest
winds could produce gusts up to 25 mph on Wednesday before
diminishing some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and primarily dry conditions are expected today. Winds
shift from easterly today to southerly Monday, with southerly
channeling yielding wind gusts approaching SCA criteria. Winds
increase on Tuesday with SCAs likely. Active convection will also
make for hazardous conditions across the waterways. This may include
strong winds, abrupt wind shifts, and frequent lightning.

SCA conditions could persist through Thursday afternoon before winds
diminish overall. Southwest winds shift northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly winds early this week combined with a full moon lead
to gradually rising tidal anomalies. Annapolis will likely reach
minor coastal flooding early Tuesday with other sensitive tidal
locations rising into action stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/SRT
MARINE...AVS/LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion