096
FXUS61 KLWX 071347
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
847 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Sunday night
for most of the waters.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry and seasonable this weekend.
- 2) Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more
unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable this weekend.
High pressure will build near and south of the region through
the weekend as an upper trough axis pulls away to the east.
Brisk west to northwest winds will usher in cooler, more
seasonable temperatures. Winds will gust up to 25 to 35 mph
today (up to around 40 mph at higher elevations). Sunday will
still be breezy, but about 5-10 mph lower than today.
Wave clouds/stratocu likely persist west of I-81 much of today
with a few sprinkles or flurries possible out that way. It will
be mainly clear and dry otherwise through the weekend.
The central Virginia piedmont will be closer to the high and
have a chance to decouple (winds going light/calm) tonight and
again Sunday night. If this happens, near freezing temperatures
would result. May consider frost/freeze headlines for Fauquier,
Culpeper, Stafford, Spotsylvania, Prince William, Orange,
Greene, Madison, Rappahannock, Nelson, and Albemarle Counties
from late this evening through Sunday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more
unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.
Amplified flow within the northern stream will allow for a series of
dry cold frontal passages across the area next week. After the first
boundary pushes through late in the weekend, an additional system
races through on Tuesday. These are moisture starved air masses so
the only notable changes will be an increase in wind speeds and the
reinforcement of drier air. Through the middle of the week, skies
should largely be clear which would support abundant sunshine. Daily
high temperatures will mainly be in the 60s, with 50s across the
mountains. One exception would be on Tuesday which is the mildest
day of the period as highs return to the low 70s. Nighttime
conditions will be seasonably chilly owing to the dry air and lack
of cloud cover. Most nights should favor low temperatures in the mid
30s to mid 40s, but with localized pockets of upper 20s to low 30s
across sheltered mountain and river valleys. This may lead to some
frost/freeze concerns where the growing season continues (most spots
east of the Blue Ridge).
Toward the latter half of the next work week, global models continue
to advertise a broad deepening trough approaching from the Upper
Midwest. This eventually evolves into more of an omega block setup
with building heights over the western states and troughing across
the eastern Pacific. The global ensemble box-and-whisker plots show
a decided drop in temperatures. Cold temperatures aloft underneath
this upper low could even spread some rain or snow showers over the
Alleghenies on Friday. Uncertainty remains high though, but a
cooling trend certainly looks likely heading into Friday and next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the
weekend. Few-sct stratocu around FL040-060 are possible today
especially near MRB. Gusty W/NW winds 280-310 at 10-17 kt with
gusts 21-29 kt are expected through about 22Z/5PM EST before
gradually diminishing with gusts becoming occasional tonight
(perhaps notably lighter near CHO). Winds take a bit more W
component Sun (SW near CHO) generally 3-8 kt less than Sat.
An extended period of VFR conditions should continue during the
early to middle portions of next week. An initial cold front exiting
the area late Sunday will yield breezy northwesterly winds on Monday
as gusts rise to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds shift to southwesterly
by Tuesday before another cold front ushers in another round of west-
northwesterlies through mid-week.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through this evening,
solidly into SCA thresholds with a few peak gusts around 30 kts
possible at times. Winds gradually subside through Sunday while
taking on a bit more of a westerly component.
Post-frontal winds on Monday will remain breezy in nature with gusts
up to around 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed
through Monday evening before winds drop off on Tuesday given a
shift to southwesterly flow. A subsequent cold front moves
through Tuesday evening which supports another shift to
northwesterlies. While forecast gusts Wednesday are around 10 to
15 knots, these likely will be a bit higher than shown.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion