868
FXUS61 KLWX 131433
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday.

- 2) A cool and primarily dry pattern early in the week,
  followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the
  potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms
return Sunday.

Quiescent wx returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower
humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for
highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and
less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s.

Sun features the next chance for severe wx. SPC has maintained
a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have
increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3
out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next
24 hours. Stay tuned for the latest...

In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base
of an UL trof Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher
in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near
70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating
resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with
increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing
instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of
the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the
development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon,
some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep
low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which
will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind
gusts. There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance with
respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as
of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue
Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front,
followed by linear segments which make sense given
unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging
winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the
metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to
limit the overall flood threat. The system`s cold front will
move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into
the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms
to an end.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cool and dry pattern early in the week,
followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the
potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

UL trof is forecast to build over the region early next week
and remain in place through Wed. This pattern will bring much
cooler conditions to the region with daily high temps in the
mid to upper 70s to lower 80s favored Mon through Wed. A
combination of mid level disturbances and moisture will keep
skies partly/mostly cloudy with on and off chances for showers.

Model ensembles have the trofy pattern starting to break down
on Thu allowing warm and humid conditions to return to the
region. Increasing moisture and temperatures along with a
potential frontal passage will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Thu. Depending on the strength of the upper
level shortwave driving the cold front, there could be a risk
for strong thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and dry weather are expected today, with winds
generally light out of the W/NW. Prevailing VFR conditions are
expected again on Sun, but an additional round of thunderstorms
may be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds
will generally be out of the S/SW outside of any thunderstorms.

Mid level broken to overcast clouds are favored over all terminals
Mon through Wed of next week. At this time, cloud decks are
likely to be VFR, but some lower clouds are possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters today.
Winds turn out of the south on Sun. Have issued SCA for all
waters late morning through late evening. SMWs may also
potentially be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters
Sun afternoon into Sun evening.

Sub-SCA conditions are most likely Mon through Wed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion