915
FXUS61 KLWX 061411
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a bit more detail in the tides/coastal flood section. Also
made some edits to other sections to reflect current conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity today into early parts of the week.

- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic through Monday. This will bring a change in
airmass with notably lower dew points. Highs in the low 80s for
most today and Monday. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-
Atlantic on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the
southeast CONUS. Temperatures likely begin to creep up again
during this time, accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-
level dry air tracks south of the region with more humid air
coming in from the north.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid
week.

Upper-level ridging over the Appalachians starts to flatten into
zonal flow beginning Wed. As this occurs, a trough forming over
Quebec will begin to track east across the northeast CONUS,
with a stemming cold front moving across the East Coast by
Thursday. Temps gradually increase during this time, along with
increasing humidity ahead of the front. By Thursday, temps
potentially reach the lower 90s across the metros.

As this frontal boundary tracks through the Mid-Atlantic, additional
shower & thunderstorm activity is possible across the region
beginning Wed evening and into Thursday. As of the 00Z model
runs, the GFS and ECMWF both indicate a Thu afternoon time of
arrival for most precip, but the exact coverage and nature of
precip remains uncertain. Some diurnal thunderstorm development
remains possible during this period given the increasing
instability in the atmosphere by this time.

As this cold front transitions offshore towards the end of next week,
temps drop again & conditions become much drier heading into
the weekend as high pressure moves in overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light showers and drizzle linger near CHO this morning, and will
likely continue to do so over the next couple hours. This should
taper off into the early afternoon.

Thereafter, VFR conditions should persist through Wednesday
evening.

Showers & thunderstorms associated with an incoming cold front
could temporarily bring sub-VFR conditions to terminals by
Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the front on Thursday, winds could
gust between 20-25 knots before diminishing overnight.
Southerly winds shift northeasterly by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected, though onshore gusts could
approach marginal SCA levels late this afternoon. Currently
favoring a Marine Weather Statement given brief duration.

Northeasterly winds Monday shift southerly on Tuesday,
remaining below SCA levels.

SCAs are possible across the Bay by Wed evening ahead of an
incoming cold front. Winds could remain elevated throughout
Thu as this frontal boundary tracks east across the coast.
southerly winds shift northeasterly Thu night in the wake of
the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated over the next several days due
to an onshore flow. Minor tidal flooding is becoming
increasingly likely at Annapolis, and could also be possible in
the other sensitive tidal locations in the northern Chesapeake
Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories will need to be considered in the
next 12 to 18 hours, but would like to monitor forecast trends a
bit longer before issuance to make sure tidal anomalies remain
on track with the current forecasts. Wind direction will play a
key role in this setup, and if it goes a bit more northerly,
that could drastically reduce the anomaly values, so there is
still some level of uncertainty at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/SRT
MARINE...CJL/CPB/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion