888
FXUS61 KLWX 101935
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
235 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No immediate change to the forecast for today. Still monitoring
the upcoming cold, mountain snow, and brisk conditions late this
week into the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow Friday
  into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures
follow Friday into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk
conditions.

Dry and warm conditions are going to continue through Wednesday as
upper troughing pulls offshore and weak ridging quickly traverses
the region. Another chilly night ahead as skies remain clear and
winds are calm across most of the area. Lows tonight settle in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. A bit more cloud cover tomorrow keeps highs in
the mid to upper 60s, but that is still above normal for this time
of year.

A low pressure system passing through the Ohio River Valley and into
the Mid-Atlantic brings scattered showers across our region beginning
Thursday morning across the Alleghenies. Showers are expected to
move eastward across the area throughout the day. Depending on how
fast this system moves offshore, precipitation could linger into
Friday although primarily confined to the Allegheny Mountains and
east of I-95.

The upper trough across the Northeast to OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic
cuts off Friday, meanders south a bit on Saturday, then quickly
flattens out Sunday into early next week as strong Canadian High
pressure builds in from the west. Behind Thursday`s cold front,
temperatures are forecasted to be 5-10 degrees below mid November
normals. Reinforcing fronts are likely to cross the area through the
weekend, maintaining cold temperatures and brisk winds. Combined
with ample cloud cover this brings us the season`s first noticeable
cold period.

The Allegheny Mountains are likely see their first accumulating snow
of the season Friday into Saturday. A deepening low off the southern
coast of New England will produce northwest winds into the
mountains, with moisture feeding in a favorable direction from the
Great Lakes. As temperatures cool Thursday night, rain transitions
to a rain/snow mix, then likely all snow sometime on Friday.
Marginal temperatures on Friday prevent much of that from
accumulating, but that should change Friday night as temps drop to
the 20s in the Alleghenies. Elevations above 3000 feet are most
likely to see accumulating snow, but the marginal temps during the
daytime should keep snow totals on the low end (at least compared to
what some of the model guidance is indicating). As the surface high
builds in on Sunday, drier air should bring an end to snow showers
by Sunday afternoon.

Chilly and brisk conditions continue on Sunday as high pressure
builds to our west. Winds calm next week with temperatures remaining
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Wednesday night. An area of low
pressure will move across the OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic Thursday
into Friday, then a strong upper trough brings brisk winds and cold
conditions into the weekend. While some showers are expected
Thursday, they likely won`t cause significant restrictions. Some low
clouds are possible Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front
crosses the area Friday, then begins a period of brisk northwest
winds gusting around 20-30 knots Friday into Saturday. While winds
decrease a bit Sunday, the forecast still calls for gusts of 20-25
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A few gusts to around 20 knots are possible through this evening
over the local waters, but otherwise expect light winds tonight into
Wednesday. An area of low pressure will move from the OH Valley to
Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday, then a strong cold front moves
across the area to start the weekend. A prolonged period of SCA
conditions is likely to begin Thursday night and continue through
Sunday afternoon. Most gusts are going to be around 20-25 knots,
then gusts close to 30 knots are possible Friday into Friday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this
afternoon, though winds are much lighter than yesterday. Minimum RH
values between 25 to 35 percent, occasional wind gusts to 20 to 25
mph, and some dry fine fuels could result in locally higher fire
sensitivity. However, given the lower winds, not expecting
significant wildfire spread issues today. Increasing moisture and
cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday should mitigate any additional
fire weather risk.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are forecast to increase Wednesday into Thursday
as south winds return. Sensitive locations could approach Action
Stage, with Annapolis possibly reaching minor flood stage during
the Thursday afternoon high tide. After that, a strong cold
front brings a prolonged period of offshore winds. This could
result in blowout tides into the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KVH
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion