688
FXUS61 KLWX 040604
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Previous thunderstorm complex has moved out of the area. A few
remaining showers or thunderstorms across Ohio and Pennsylvania
will be monitored as they dive southeast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm
chances again today into Saturday.

- 2) Drier conditions anticipated over the second half of Labor  Day
weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe
thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are
anticipated again this afternoon/evening. Timing is a bit uncertain
given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence
paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another
round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest
guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north due to slower
progression of the cold front, encompassing areas as far north as I-
70 or the Mason-Dixon line . While storms can develop over the
region and congeal before moving southeast, areas in Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will need to be monitored to see if
anything grows upscale in those areas in linear segments and
dives southeast.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew
points in the lower to middle 70s resulting in heat indices in the
upper 90s to lower 100s. This will be just shy of heat headline
criteria (except in Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle/Nelson
Counties). The potential for early day clouds to offset heating
precludes enough confidence to issue any further heat headlines at
this time, though it will be unusually hot and humid for early
September regardless.

Notably cooler Sat with some showers or thunderstorms associated
with a disturbance aloft. There remains notable uncertainty wrt
coverage. Lower odds for SVR wx Sat with SPC only having the FA in
General Thunder. Some models much more bullish than others, with the
greatest likelihood of precip across the SW half of the FA. Highs
Sat in the 80s for most.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions expected for the second half of
Labor Day weekend through early next week.

Sfc high pressure over the GL will track over the Mid-Atlantic Sun
into Mon, with accompanying mid-level dry air that will bring down
humidity and t-storm chances. Daily highs drop to the low 80s, along
with drier dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. These conditions
likely persist through Tue as high pressure drifts south.

As high pressure dominates, expect temps to slowly creep back up to
the mid-to-upper 80s beginning Tue and Wed. Entering into the
midweek, broad upper-level ridging begins to build over the southern
Plains, with a deep trough forming to the north over Nova Scotia.
This will create a frontal boundary tracking across the East Coast
sometime during this period, potentially beginning Wed and into Thu.
This could create chances for a few showers or storms to form along
the front as it tracks through, along with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Added mention of fog to the TAFs where it rained.

Additional storms with somewhat uncertain timing are possible
today. PROB30s were introduced with the typical diurnal window
which aligns with latest CAMs. Winds will shift to NW by late
this afternoon through Sat.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals Sun through
Tue. Nw`ly winds shift S`ly on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another round of storms are anticipated most likely late this
afternoon and evening which likely prompt SMWs. Otherwise, generally
light flow is expected into the upcoming weekend, though NW gusts
could approach SCA levels tonight into Sat.

Winds could approach SCA levels Sun evening before diminishing back
below thresholds by Mon morning. NW`ly winds shift S`ly on Tue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CPB/EST/SRT
AVIATION...CPB/EST/SRT
MARINE...CPB/EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion