242
FXUS61 KLWX 280216
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With snow showers becoming locally heavier across western
Garrett County, opted to issue a Special Weather Statement
through 2 AM. Otherwise, for the weekend system, run-to-run
model variability continues with details continuing to evolve.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerously cold temperatures through this weekend.
- 2) Periods of Allegheny Mountain snow through mid-week.
- 3) Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerously cold temperatures through this
weekend.
Winds will again complicate the temperature forecast tonight as
a reinforcing cold front passes through this evening. The winds
in the wake of the front will likely hold temperatures up to an
extent. Areas which decouple toward dawn may drop well into the
single digits. So while this could result in some gaps in Cold
Advisory criteria, the combination should result in wind chill
values close to 0 (or lower) across much of the area. Thus
expanded the Cold Weather Advisory into the Virginia Piedmont
area in collaboration with WFO Wakefield. Dangerous wind chill
values around 20 below are still expected along the higher
elevations of the Allegheny Front, where wind gusts are already
close to Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures should rise enough
and combine with light winds to result in a respite in lower
wind chill values by Wednesday afternoon.
Persistent cyclonic flow with multiple reinforcing shots of
Arctic air will result in bitterly cold conditions through the
end of the week. Confidence remains high in a truly noteworthy
cold air outbreak through the weekend, and perhaps next week
across the region. Subtleties associated with Cold Weather
headlines will exist each day into the weekend, and there`s no
longer an obvious "coldest" night...just some slight variations
between them. The bottom line is it will be cold and to continue
to prepare to protect yourself, others, pets, and livestock.
River ice is likely to continue increasing in coverage across
the area, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of Allegheny Mountain snow through mid-
week.
A period of mountain snow showers continues along the Allegheny
Mountains as a clipper system ushers in a reinforcing cold
front. Snow will continue throughout the evening before tapering
off by late tonight. Favorable setup for high ratio snow given
cold air and decent lift in the DGZ. The limiting factor will be
the shallow moisture depth, with forecast liquid equivalent
generally less than one tenth of an inch. These events have been
underdone by NBM in the past per local research so have gone
above NBM guidance with SLRs and QPF. A general 1-3" of snow is
expected across Alleghenies during this time. However, some
locally higher totals can`t be ruled out if liquid equivalents
are over a tenth of an inch as indicated by some CAMs. At least
in one occurrence, a trained spotter reported 1.5 inches of snow
in only 90 minutes. For now, a Special Weather Statement has
been issued into the night for western Garrett County given some
challenging travel conditions as roads become snow covered.
Another disturbance will move through late Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with more snow showers possible in the
Alleghenies. This system looks drier, but still a decent amount
of spread. Will continue to monitor trends as another period of
accumulating snow is likely (high end ceiling a couple inches
of fluff).
KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system
this weekend.
We continue to monitor the potential for snow associated with a
coastal low this weekend. Nearly all model solutions show a strong
coastal low forming, but there`s still considerable uncertainty
regarding both where that low will track, and what impacts we will
experience locally. Potential outcomes range anywhere from a storm
that tracks well out to sea with little impact locally, to a storm
that tracks closer to the coast and produces heavy snowfall across
the region.
The general flow pattern forecast by models has many of the synoptic
features associated with Mid-Atlantic snowstorms, with ridging along
the West Coast, troughing along the East Coast, ample cold air
in place at the surface, and then downstream blocking over the
North Atlantic. However, the trend with incoming EPS and GEPS
trended significantly downward with probabilities for snow,
ultimately showing a further southeast and out to sea track. The
12z GFS shows the potential snowier solution, and GEFS
probabilities for snow trended upward. Spatially speaking,
probabilities are highest for snow in all guidance the further
southeast you go. In our area, southern Maryland would have the
greatest chance at seeing snow.
It`s worth noting that the flow pattern at upper levels preceding
this storm is highly complex. The primary disturbance that will
ultimately contribute to the development of the system is actually
located over Newfoundland currently and will rotate westward around
an upper low centered over Hudson Bay, before turning southward and
digging out the trough that will eventually provide the forcing for
the development of the coastal low. As this disturbance turns
southward, it will also be influenced by an upper low over Alaska
and a building ridge over the West Coast. Given the high complexity
of these interactions, it may take another 1-2 days for models to
settle into a higher confidence solution, and as a result, the door
is still open for large forecast shifts.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
ceilings could drop to around 5,000 feet for a time this
evening/tonight as a reinforcing cold front moves through. That
front will shift winds from southwest to west or west-northwest.
Some gusts around 20 kt are possible in the wake of the cold
front this evening.
Behind the another front on Wednesday night, WNW winds may gust
to around 20 kt on Thursday. Otherwise benign weather is
expected.
VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected on Friday. Sub-
VFR conditions and snow may potentially be possible on Saturday if a
coastal low tracks close to the area. If that system tracks further
out to sea, conditions would be VFR. Either way, gusty northerly
appear likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will shift to WNW this evening behind a reinforcing cold
front. The previous shift added the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern
Shore zones to the SCA tonight which will now cover all marine
zones in the Chesapeake Bay. Some gusts around 30 kt are
possible with the frontal surge. Some freezing spray is possible
tonight, although confidence is low that it reaches advisory
thresholds. Winds will gradually subside late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Sub- SCA level W winds are expected by Wed
afternoon.
Another front will pass Wednesday night. Winds increase behind
the front with SCAs likely late Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Sub-SCA northwesterly winds are expected on Friday. Winds will shift
to out of the north on Saturday and pick up. At least SCAs appear
likely on Saturday, with gales possible if a stronger coastal
storm develops.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ025>031-
037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526-527.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ050>053-
055-502>504-506.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ538-542.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/KJP
MARINE...ADS/BRO/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion