722
FXUS61 KLWX 310221
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
921 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
This evening`s temperatures were a little slower than guidance
to fall but still on track for a cold night. Also, dewpoint
temperatures were a little colder than previous expected. This
just signals dry air in place across most of the region. If any
snow were to fall in our southern zones later overnight into
Saturday morning, it has to contend with this drier air. In the
meantime...Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of
the Mid- Atlantic tonight. Extreme Cold Watches remain in
effect for the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands as well as the
central and northern Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains Saturday
night into Sunday. Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain
in effect.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) An Arctic air mass will remain in place through the weekend
with dangerously cold wind chills as an intense low pressure
passes offshore.
- 2) A brief period of above-freezing temperatures is expected
early next week before potential Ohio River Valley system
brings back the potential for a wintry mix.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic air mass will remain in place through the weekend
with dangerously cold wind chills as an intense low pressure passes
offshore.
Wind chill values tonight will be close to zero. Cold weather
headlines remain in effect. The coldest wind chill values are
expected Saturday night into Sunday morning which latest
forecast has values reaching solidly into the advisory range and
in the warning category in the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands and
central/northern VA Blue Ridge where watches have been issued.
This is due to both CAA on the backside of offshore low pressure
as well as blustery winds as the low passes by.
The latest guidance keeps the track of intense low pressure off
the Carolina coast and keeps it offshore rather than wavering
back west or northwestward. Probs of 1+ inch of snow are
hovering at 30-50% across parts of central VA to southern MD.
The best chance for a dusting of snow seems to be over Nelson
County VA during the day Saturday, and into southern MD Saturday
night where there could be some bay- effect flurries or snow
showers as well. The main impact from this storm will be the
cold and wind with gusts in the 35-40 mph range creating bitter
to extreme cold wind chills.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief period of above-freezing temperatures
is expected early next week before potential Ohio River Valley
system brings back the potential for a wintry mix.
High pressure coming from the southwest will temporarily bring
temperatures up to the low-30s on Monday, marking the first time
that the region could see above-freezing temperatures in over a
week. These borderline conditions could introduce a wintry mix as a
shortwave trough coming from the Ohio River Valley starts to move
through the region on Wednesday. Exact precipitation type during
this time could still change as exact temperature forecasts become
more refined. Currently have primarily snow forecast for the
area with a rain/snow mix along and south of I-64. Will continue
to monitor this slight winter storm threat.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. MVFR CIGs and flurries
remain possible overnight into Saturday at CHO. NW winds 5-10
kts except at KCHO where winds will be more E/NE. Winds will be
more N this weekend becoming gusty beginning late Sat.
Predominantly VFR conditions up to Tuesday evening, where a
potential low pressure wave could bring low ceilings and degraded
visibility. A period of sustained 15 kt winds NW can be expected
over the weekend, with gusts up to 30 knots possible across all
terminals on Sunday. Lighter winds expected starting Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will be relatively light as a surface ridge builds across
the region overnight. Winds begin to strengthen heading into
Saturday and especially Saturday night as low pressure deepens
offshore. Gale conditions appear likely for portions of the
waters Saturday night into Sunday. Freezing spray also appears
likely especially for the wider waters south of Drum Point where
the winds will be strongest, the fetch longer and the waves
bigger.
Wind gusts should start to decrease after Sunday`s coastal low moves
northward, then remain in the 5-10 knot range later in the week.
Still a potential for a Small Craft Advisory next week, especially
on Monday if the system persists in the area. Winds up to 25
knots could still impact the central-south Chesapeake Bay region
into Monday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As low pressure rapidly strengthens offshore Saturday night
through Monday, strong northerly winds may lead to blowout tide
conditions. Some guidance indicates tides as low as 2 to 3 ft
below MLLW (lowest Sunday). Due to widespread ice buildup, this
could result in some property damage (docks, moorings, etc.) as
block ice is pushed away from the shore.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday night
for MDZ008.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for VAZ039-040-
050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday night
for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ531-
535-536-538-539.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ531>533-537-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ532>534-
537-540>543.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/SRT
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion