798
FXUS61 KLWX 282128
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
528 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated marine forecast and issued Small Craft Advisory late
tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Lingering showers and a strong thunderstorm through mid-
  evening, then dry overnight and Saturday.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing
  thunderstorm chances by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers and a strong thunderstorm
through mid-evening, then dry overnight and Saturday.

A broad upper trough and associated cold front will slide to
the southeast tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a strong
thunderstorm or two could linger through midnight, primarily
along and southeast of I-95. Damaging winds and isolated
instances of flooding will be the main threats. As of 230pm,
radar shows scattered showers over southern Maryland and another
batch moving over Lake Anna areas of Spotsylvania and Louisa
Counties of VA. Another heavy shower is noted over southwestern
Nelson County. Additional showers and thunderstorms could
develop over the central areas of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal
Potomac and eastern VA through midnight. Dry conditions are
anticipated overnight and through Saturday night as weak high
pressure builds in. Storm chances return Sunday afternoon as
southerly winds return and weak surface troughing develops.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing
thunderstorm chances by midweek.

Models are generally in good agreement that a strong mid-level ridge
builds across the southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic during the
early to middle part of next week. Well above normal temperatures
for late August can be expected as highs reach the lower to mid 90s.
Hot and humid conditions are likely as heat indices reach the upper
90s and possibly the lower 100s.

A more notable mid-level disturbance will progress from the northern
High Plains to the Northeast toward the middle of next week. The
ridge will be suppressed as a result, but it remains uncertain how
much and how quickly this happens. The latest trend in the ensemble
guidance is for the upper ridge over the Mid-South to be a bit
further west. If this pans out, our area in the Mid-Atlantic will be
in a more favorable location along the periphery of the ridge to be
impacted by passing MCSs. Eventually, by mid week it looks like the
upper ridge retreats enough to allow the shortwave troughs to move
over our area. Several of the AI models indicate increasing severe
potential at some point Tuesday through Friday, which is certainly
possible given the high instability that will be in place, along
with substantial upper-level support from any strong disturbance.
It`s also possible a back door cold front tries to drop into the
area by Wednesday or Thursday, leading to greater uncertainty in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The threat for convection is waning for the TAF sites as drier
air moves in from the north. A stray shower could pop up near
CHO through sunset, but this looks to be a low enough chance
that the mention has been removed from the TAF.

VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week. Northerly
winds shifting east Saturday, then southerly Sunday, but remaining
around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A few strong thunderstorms remain possible through early evening
in the vicinity of southern Maryland, which could require
Special Marine Warnings.

Late tonight, a secondary front will push southward, resulting
in a surge of north to northeast winds. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued along the Chesapeake from 2 AM until 9 AM
Saturday.

Generally favorable marine conditions expected this weekend
into early next week, with winds around 10 knots. North winds to
start the day Saturday become east by the afternoon, then south
on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night due to southerly channeling.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/KRR
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion