700
FXUS61 KLWX 301531
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1031 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada while its
associated upper-level trough remains overhead today. An upper-
level disturbance will pass through late tonight into Wednesday
morning before another upper-level disturbance and its
reinforcing cold front move through late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. High pressure will briefly return for Friday
before low pressure passes nearby or to our south Saturday.
High pressure will return for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed low pressure will remain over eastern Canada today and
its associated upper-level trough will remain overhead during
this time. A strong pressure gradient between the low over
eastern Canada and high pressure over the central CONUS will
continue to usher in gusty west to northwest winds along with
cold conditions.
The strongest gradient early this morning along with the
strongest wind field aloft appear to be near and northeast of
the Potomac River as well as the higher elevations in the Blue
Ridge Mountains/Potomac and Allegheny Highlands. The High Wind
Warning continues for the Allegheny Ridge, but was dropped on
the Blue Ridge, as trends have been down this morning. Highest
gusts on the Blue Ridge since midnight were around 30-40 mph.
The Wind Advisory continues for most other locations generally
along and north of I-70, as well as northern VA and eastern WV.
Areas further south were dropped as the trend has been down this
morning overall. Wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph are most likely
in the advised areas with wind gusts around 60 mph in the High
Wind Warning. Elsewhere, winds have subsided a bit but it will
remain blustery today, with gusts early on around 30-40 mph,
dropping into the 20-30 mph range by this afternoon.
For this afternoon, the gradient will weaken a little as the
low slowly moves off to the northeast. This will likely allow
winds to fall below warning/advisory thresholds, but it will
remain blustery and cold.
Additional snow showers are likely out west this morning, even
though the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire.
However, additional accumulations should be on the lighter
side. Having that been said, areas of blowing snow will continue
through this afternoon into tonight, making travel difficult to
dangerous at times.
A few flurries and snow showers have spilled east of the
mountains this morning, and even as far east as the metros. This
could continue into early this afternoon. Any accumulation
should be light due to plenty of low-level dry air and a
downsloping flow.
The winds will continue to gradually subside tonight as the
gradient weakens along with the loss of mixing. An upper-level
disturbance in the northern stream will move into the area late
tonight. This system will lack moisture, but most guidance shows
upward motion in the mid-levels that is aligned with saturation
and the DGZ. This will obviously fight low-level dry air, but
flurries and perhaps even a period of light snow cannot be
ruled out. As of now, it appears that the best chance will be
near/west of the Allegheny Front and also across our eastern
areas (northeast Maryland and perhaps approaching the Baltimore
and DC metro areas into southern Maryland). Increased POPS a bit
from the NBM across these areas and added scattered flurries as
well. If accumulating snow does occur, even light amounts would
have an impact due to the very cold conditions and this would
impact the Wednesday morning commute.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level disturbance will depart Wednesday morning and
any flurries or light snow should dissipate by mid-morning,
except for along/west of the Allegheny Front where some snow
showers may linger. Dry and chilly conditions are expected for
most areas later Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening behind
the departing upper-level disturbance.
Another upper-level disturbance in the northern stream along
with a reinforcing cold front will pass through the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This system will be a
little stronger, despite limited moisture. Another period of
light snow or flurries are possible, and again with cold
conditions any light accumulation may be impactful. For
locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope
component to the low-level wind will cause snow accumulation. A
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for these areas. The
combination of the upslope flow, strong mid-level forcing and
saturation within the DGZ along with instability and high SLR`s
suggest that significant accumulation is possible (around 6"
possible). The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those
areas.
High pressure will build overhead behind this system later
Thursday through Thursday night, bringing more dry and cold
conditions. Gusty northwest winds Thursday into Thursday evening
will make it feel blustery as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move offshore Friday and a reinforcing cold
front will pass through the area Friday night into Saturday
while low pressure passes by to the south. Friday afternoon will
be a little milder ahead of the front.
The most likely scenario for the weekend into early next week is
for dry and seasonal conditions with the low remaining far
enough to the south. However, if the low tracks farther north,
then a period of rain or wintry precipitation could occur
Saturday. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Gusty northwest
winds will continue through this morning before gradually
diminishing this afternoon into tonight. Gusts around 35 to 45
knots are most likely into this afternoon (strongest winds most
likely through this morning).
Winds will diminish further tonight. A period of light snow or
flurries cannot be ruled out late tonight into Thursday morning
(around 9Z through 14Z). This is not reflected in the latest
TAF with probs around 20%, but MVFR vsbys are possible in some
light snow during this time. Any accumulation will be light, but
with it being cold it would only take light accumulations for
impact.
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. Another upper-level disturbance may bring a
period of light snow or flurries late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR vsbys are possible during this time
and any light accumulation may have impact due to the cold
conditions.
VFR conditions are expected later Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through today. A Gale
Warning remains in effect until 6 AM for all of the waters. For
the rest of today, the strongest winds will most likely be over
the upper Tidal Potomac River and northern Chesapeake Bay. A
Gale Warning continues through this afternoon for these areas
(gusts around 35 to 40 kts) and an SCA is in effect for areas to
the south. Even across these areas, gusts around 30 knots are
expected and a few gusts around 35 knots cannot be ruled out.
Winds will continue to gradually diminish over the waters
tonight, but an SCA is in effect for all of the waters this
evening and for the Bay/lower Tidal Potomac River overnight.
An SCA is in effect for the waters Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front and the SCA will likely be needed
Wednesday night as well. The cold front will pass through late
Wednesday night into Thursday and more gusty northwest winds are
expected behind the cold front. An SCA will likely be needed for
the waters with gusts around 30 knots possible. High pressure
will build overhead later Thursday night into Friday, bringing
lighter winds.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected through
tonight. Tidal blowout conditions are possible through tonight.
A Low Water Advisory may be needed.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for MDZ003>006-008-011-505-
507-508.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for MDZ008.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ501-502-
509-510.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ028-031.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ503-504.
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ050>053-055.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501>506.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ530.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>532-535-
538>540.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ530>532-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST this evening for
ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/CJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion