815
FXUS61 KLWX 021829
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times today through
Sunday.
- 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue
Ridge early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times
today through Sunday.
Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
far eastern Canada with a cold front draped south through New
England and into the Ohio Valley. Mostly light showers are
currently located along this boundary, which will drift
southeast through tonight. Ahead of this, we are well above
average in terms of temperatures, with readings in the mid to
upper 80s for most. Dew points are in the mid 60s, which
combined with the warmth should yield at least some minimal CAPE
values this afternoon/evening. As the front drops southward,
expect showers to increase in coverage and perhaps pop off a few
thunderstorms as they move into the slightly unstable air mass.
They will also be aided by the right entrance region of an
approaching jet streak, which should help to overcome the mid-
level drying that is ongoing now in westerly flow. Rainfall
amounts will be generally less than a quarter inch for most
locations.
Strong high pressure will pass north of the area Saturday while
the front stalls just to our south. Southern stream moisture
will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the north, but
there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line between rain
and no rain. The trend has been for a further north track, so
have shifted rain chances about 20 to 30 miles north with the
latest forecast package.
A wave of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary
Saturday night into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance
of some heavier rain spreading northward into the area. The
Weather Prediction Center does have our eastern areas in a
Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook, and this seems plausible
given the potential for a surge of 2"+ PWATs. Rain that does
occur will likely exit the area Sunday evening.
Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of
cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for
most areas over the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2...First widespread frost and freeze potential west of
the Blue Ridge early next week.
A distinct pattern shift unfolds into the first full week of
October. A highly amplified trough characterized by mid-level
heights around 531-dm is expected to cross through Quebec and New
Brunswick on Monday. While the core of the forcing remains across
New England and points northward, the main impact will come with the
cold air arriving in the wake of this trough. A robust area of
Canadian high pressure moves into the area Monday night through mid-
week. Consequently, this is forecast to bring a true autumnal feel
to the air with daily temperatures well below average. For Tuesday
and Wednesday, forecast highs will generally range from the upper
50s to 60s, with mountain locales mainly in the 50s. Looking at
overnight conditions, the dry nature of the air mass allows
temperatures to plummet at night. Areas west of the Blue Ridge can
expect widespread mid/upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights. This
will also include some pockets of upper 20s to near the freezing
mark. Given the growing season continues across the region, there
will be a threat of some frost/freeze conditions both of those
nights. For those with sensitive outdoor vegetation, plans should be
made to ensure their safety in these conditions.
Although Canadian high pressure moves off the coast toward the
mid/late week period, the overall pattern will remain dry throughout
next week. Temperatures slowly rebound through the week as forecast
highs return to the low/mid 70s. Nighttime lows remain chilly, but
the threat for frost/freeze conditions should diminish beyond
Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will enter the area this evening. Some showers are
possible along the front, and an isolated rumble of thunder can`t
completely be ruled out. A brief period of MVFR conditions is
possible tonight, but is most likely down towards CHO.
The front will stall to the south over the weekend, but its
position remains uncertain. Rain chances have increased area-
wide on Saturday as the stalled front is trending a bit further
north. Some heavier rain could move north into most areas by
Sunday morning as an area of low pressure develops along the
front.
Any sub-VFR conditions would likely be limited to CHO Saturday,
but could spread northward Sunday.
The presence of Canadian high pressure will ensure VFR conditions
across all terminals during the early/mid week period. Expect
northwesterly winds on Monday with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. As
high pressure crosses the region, winds shift to northerly by
Tuesday before shifting to south-southeasterly by mid-week.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will then push southward tonight, brining a surge
of gusty northerly winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for this threat through early Saturday afternoon.
After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a second cold
front pushes through on Monday.
Behind a cold front, northwesterly winds will increase throughout
Monday evening into early Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories are likely
going to be needed during this uptick in the winds. As Canadian high
pressure moves in, wind speeds begin to drop off thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front pushes through tonight, and will lead to declining
water levels over at least the next 24 to 36 hours.
Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion