644
FXUS61 KLWX 200216
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast. Some 18z model guidance is coming in
and continues to show a potential winter weather threat this
weekend. More updates, if necessary, during the overnight hours
with the arrival of the 0z model guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Very cold conditions are expected over the region through
  Tuesday night.

- 2) Near-record cold this weekend, along with increasing
  potential for a significant winter storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold conditions are expected over the
region through Tuesday night.

Winds could gust 30 to 40 mph at higher elevations above 3500
feet over the next few hours before diminishing even further.
The reinforcing Arctic front will cross the Mid-Atlantic later
this evening to allow for temperatures to fall into the teens by
Tuesday morning with single digits at higher elevations.

Combined with a blustery northwest wind, it will feel more like
the single digits for much of the area, with wind chills of -10
to -20 at higher elevations (as cold as -30 above 3500 feet in
the Alleghenies). Cold Weather headlines remain in place for
those areas tonight as a result.

Temperatures struggle to escape the 20s for much of the area
Tuesday (teens in the mountains) with perhaps only portions of
the central VA piedmont to southern MD poking above freezing for
a few hours in the afternoon. It will moderate but remain
colder than normal Wednesday ahead of another approaching front.
Main thing to really note on both days outside of the cold
temperatures is the very dry nature of the air mass. Some
guidance is hinting at RH values in the low teens tomorrow
afternoon, then in the 20s on Wednesday. With temps so cold, not
necessarily anticipating a wildfire threat, so will not do an
explicit fire weather discussion for now. However, if this were
a warmer day, especially Tuesday, would be a bit concerning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential continues for possibly significant
winter storm this weekend, followed by extremely cold conditions
next week.

A potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into
Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into
Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day
from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average
temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some
upslope snow showers are possible with each front. Extremely cold
temperatures are becoming likely Sunday night into next week, with
lows in the single digits and wind chills at or below zero. Near-
record low temperatures are possible.

The latest 18Z guidance continues to show the possibility of a
significant winter storm across our area this weekend. The
trend is that the precipitation is a bit later, a little farther
to the north, and the heaviest precipitation over the area
Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The NBM had shown the
48-hour probability for at least 6 inches of snow was 40-60pct,
and around 20-30pct for 1 foot of snow. There could be a sharp
precipitation gradient with this event as mentioned before on
the north side of the storm. Lower snow totals would still be
along the MD/PA border but the latest 18z guidance could make
this gradient a little farther west into perhaps southwest PA
and far western MD.

Previous discussion...
The upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the
northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Models seem to
be in at least good agreement regarding the development of a
low pressure system that tracks across the southern U.S. A broad
area of baroclinic/frontogenetic forcing will develop along the
interaction of the Arctic high to the north and deepening low.
Ensemble guidance continues to show an amplified southern stream
influence - something we have seen very little of so far this
winter (typical of La Nina). The surface low may not escape as
easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source
of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in
tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry
precipitation potential this weekend.

Depending on where the frontal zone is and where the area of low
pressure tracks, there could be significant wintry precipitation
this weekend over a large part of the South to Mid-Atlantic CONUS.
The potential is still there for that strong Arctic high pressure to
suppress the low pressure system to our south. However, the
strengthening upstream blocking pattern could essentially put a
floor on how far south the low will track.

It is important to monitor this threat closely this week as the
different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and
upper air obs.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds become W to NW late this evening with gusts 20-30 knots
behind the Arctic front. Winds will diminish a bit tonight,
then pick up again at slightly lower speeds Tuesday, closer to
20-25 knots.

Winds will then turn southerly Wednesday ahead of the next
front. This front likely won`t bring precipitation to the TAF
sites as it crosses Thursday, with another (probably dry) front
Friday. These fronts will keep winds elevated at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of gusty winds will affect the tidal waters through
midweek. Winds will become W/NW winds gusting 20-30 kts
overnight over the open waters. Additional gustiness is
anticipated Tuesday, then turning lighter Tuesday night.

Winds turn southerly with 15-20 kt gusts possible Wednesday
ahead of the next approaching front. This front should come
through dry, with a secondary (dry) front Friday. Each of these
fronts likely bring increases in winds across the waters. SCAs
may be needed at several different times through the end of the
week as a result.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502-
     509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ504-507-
     508.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ050-055-
     502>504-506.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/CJL/KRR
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion