900
FXUS61 KLWX 071353
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
853 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not much has changed to the forecast as things are panning out
about as expected. Remain inside away from windows due to the
high wind and cold today. If you must travel outside, use
extreme caution and dress in layers.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging
winds today.
- 2) Blowing snow continues in the Alleghenies.
- 3) A warming trend is expected by early next week, with a
chance for mixed wintry precipitation on Wednesday, and again
late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and
damaging winds today.
Confidence remains high for dangerous and life-threatening wind
gusts and wind chills beginning early this morning and
persisting through Sunday morning across the entire forecast
area. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are in
place across the entire forecast area from tonight through
Sunday morning.
A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with Arctic
high pressure moving in from Canada will yield a tight pressure
gradient over the forecast area today into Sunday morning.
Additionally, a low level jet intensifying over the forecast
area Saturday morning allows stronger winds aloft to mix to the
surface.
Wind gusts will remain steady at 45-55 mph through this
evening, with embedded gusts of 60-70 mph at times (higher gusts
possible in the mountains). The High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories remain in effect through this evening for the entire
area.
Wind chills will remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at
elevations above 4000 ft (such as Spruce Knob). Elsewhere, wind
chills as low as -10F to -20F are expected.
This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The
current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below
zero over most of the area from early this morning to Sunday
late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has
observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last
occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero
lasted upwards of 30-36 hours).
Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will
be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less
time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Blowing snow continues in the Alleghenies.
Winter weather headlines have expired with only light additional
amounts of snow. However, extreme cold, high winds, and blowing
snow will remain a threat through at least Sunday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected by early next week, with
a chance for mixed wintry precipitation on Wednesday, and again late
in the week.
In the wake of another Arctic outbreak, much milder weather returns
to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a longwave trough exits
into the Atlantic Ocean, heights begin to build along the Eastern
Seaboard. Westerly warm advection within the 850-700 mb layer will
actually carry 850-mb temperatures above freezing for the first time
in quite a while. Although forecast soundings do not show a fully
mixed atmosphere down to the surface, this will at least contribute
to a period of milder conditions. For both Tuesday and Wednesday,
the warmest spots are forecast to be across the Shenandoah Valley
westward to the Allegheny Mountain valleys, as well as across
central Virginia. Expect highs in the low/mid 50s which should
contribute to some snow/ice pack melt. For locations north of I-
66/U.S. 50, widespread 40s are more likely. Beyond mid-week,
temperatures do drop off some ahead of a weather maker looming later
next week.
As a frontal system tracks toward the area mid-week, some of this
could begin as a wintry mix late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
With residual low-level cold air in place and that mentioned warmer
aloft in the 850-700 mb layer, this would likely feature some
freezing rain and/or sleet component. However, as mentioned, this
will depend on whether surface temperatures can stay below freezing
or not. Eventually temperatures gradually warm through the morning
which would shift precipitation over to an all-rain event. Looking
further ahead, a strong system looks to impact the region by late
next week. Uncertainty in track, forecast temperatures, and
precipitation amounts all are noted. Thus, confidence is low this
far out in time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest gusts between 40-50kt are expected throughout the day
with gusts exceeding 50kts possible. Winds gradually decrease
this evening and into the overnight, although gusts between
25-35kts continue overnight.
Northwest winds continue to diminish on Sunday, gusting 15 to
25 knots in the morning before gusting around 15 knots in the
afternoon. Winds become light Sunday night, blowing 5-10 knots
and remain light on Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected across all terminals.
VFR conditions are likely for much of Tuesday with light southerly
winds. Some restrictions are possible into Tuesday night and
portions of Wednesday as precipitation overspreads the area
terminals. This could even begin as a light freezing rain or sleet
mix before shifting to rain as the surface warms above freezing.
Improvements are expected later on Wednesday as precipitation exits
behind the frontal system. Winds shift to northwesterly in the wake
with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
The Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM with additional
Gale Warnings likely needed this evening and into the overnight.
Winds diminish to Small Craft Advisory criteria on Sunday. On
Monday, winds diminish further and remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria throughout the day.
Overall wind fields should stay below advisory levels for both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Southerly winds will gust to around 5 to 10
knots before a frontal system shifts winds over to northwesterly by
Wednesday. The mild air on top of the cold/icy waters will keep
sharp temperature inversions in place which would limit overall
mixing potential. Along and behind this cold front, gusts up to 15
knots or so are possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected this weekend as strong northwest
winds push water down the bay. Low Water Advisories have been
issued from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Water levels
are forecast to drop to -2FT MLLW north of the Bay Bridge and
in the upper tidal Potomac River, with -1 FT MLLW elsewhere.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for DCZ001.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-018-501>510.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ016-017.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ501-510.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ509.
VA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ025>031-053-
054-501-503>508-526-527.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-
053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ036>040-
050-051-055>057-502.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ503-507-
508.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ036>040-050-
051-055>057-502.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>543.
Low Water Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ532-533-
542.
Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ534-
537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion