590
FXUS61 KLWX 090837
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory was extended to accommodate continued
gusts across the Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac.
Otherwise no changes were made to the forecast with moderating
temperatures and mild conditions.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Moderating temperatures through midweek.
- 2) Fluctuating chances for wintry precipitation at
the end of this week associated with multiple shortwaves.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Moderating temperatures through midweek.
Cool temperatures linger this morning with Cold
Weather Advisories remaining in effect for portions of the
Alleghenies and from NE Maryland to the DC metro area. Surface
high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic today through
Tuesday, yielding continued light winds and moderating
temperatures. High temperatures today will be 5 to 10 degrees
warmer compared to yesterday, with temperatures in the 20s to
upper 30s.
High pressure remains overhead Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system tracks north of the Great Lakes. The associated warm
front lifts north through the region Tuesday with the associated
cold front pushing through that night. In the wake of the warm
front, high temperatures near 60 degrees in the Shenandoah
Valley and southern portions of the forecast area. Further
north, high temperatures will struggle to crack 50 degrees with
the warm front moving through after peak daytime heating.
While dry conditions continue for most, gusty NW winds in the
Alleghenies lead to a chance of precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar
to Tuesday, with temps in the 30s to mid 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Fluctuating chances for wintry precipitation at
the end of this week associated with multiple shortwaves.
An upper trough over the northeastern U.S. will begin to make
its way eastward starting on Wednesday, and this resulting
pressure gradient will cause winds to pick back up to 10-20
knots NW here in the Mid-Atlantic during the later half of the
week. Associated with this is a small chance for precipitation,
primarily over the Alleghenies. A second shortwave trough coming
from the southwest could bring additional impacts to the region
towards the end of the week, and this potential second
shortwave brings more widespread chances for a wintry mix
throughout the CWA starting next Friday and into next weekend.
Model guidance is still fluctuating quite a bit on the dynamics
associated with these shortwave troughs, so the timing and
magnitude of these events could still change with updated
guidance on the evolving upper dynamics behind these features.
Generally speaking, guidance broadly shows a Miller B type low
setup chasing a retreating cold airmass that briefly slides over
the area late week. This signal is quite evident in the
12Z ensemble guidance with a myriad of lows tracking off the
southeastern Virginia coast late Sunday/early Monday (Feb
15-16). Will continue to monitor this situation as additional model
runs help to provide more insight on the overall synoptic setup.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across all terminals today as surface
high pressure builds over the forecast area. Winds remain light
out of the northwest, blowing around 5 knots through the day. As
a warm front lifts north through the area, cloud cover increases
across the terminals. VFR conditions are expected to continue
across the terminals as dry conditions persist through
Wednesday. Winds shift to southerly Tuesday, then westerly
Tuesday night, before becoming northwesterly in the wake of a
cold front Wednesday.
Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday, yielding light winds and VFR conditions across all
terminals. Winds will begin to pick back up again on Wednesday,
corresponding to an upper trough centered over the Northeast
before moving offshore by Friday. During this time, NW winds
gusting up to 20 knots are possible. Lower CIGs are possible
during this timeframe if the trough tracks more southward, but
VSBYs should still be predominantly VFR at terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday
morning. Winds shift to southerly on Tuesday as a warm front
lifts across the waters and are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through Tuesday night. In the wake of a cold front,
winds shift to northwesterly on Wednesday with Small Craft
Advisories likely needed.
Winds associated with an upper trough later next week will bring 10-
20 knot winds NW between Wednesday and Thursday, and could persist
through Friday. SCAs are likely during these days,
especially in the southern Chesapeake Bay area.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016-018-501>510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ053-
054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-
503-504.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion