408
FXUS61 KLWX 020221
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
921 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The reasonable worst case scenario for snow Monday has risen
slightly, generally capping around 1 inch in the metros, and 2
inches or so across mountain locations.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A light wintry mix may lead to slippery travel, primarily
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
- A warming trend will develop Wednesday and continue through
Saturday. Rain showers could occur periodically, but
confidence is low that they will be very impactful at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A light wintry mix may lead to slippery travel, primarily
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Recent guidance continues to advertise slightly more snow than
previously expected. A period of light snow is expected for Monday
morning/early afternoon across central and southwest areas with
a first wave of precipitation. Such precipitation with this
first wave should stay south of I-70. With temperatures reaching
into the mid 30s and strong early March insolation angles, any
snow should only accumulate on grassy surfaces (perhaps up to a
half inch). The only exception will be across the higher
elevations of Skyline Drive and Highland County where sub-
advisory snow (1-2 inches) is expected.
A lull in precipitation seems likely late on Monday evening. A
second wave of precipitation is expected to move in after
midnight Monday night. Warming aloft will lead to all
precipitation turning into a wintry mix with any ice accretions
probably confined to areas west of I-95 and mainly over elevated
surfaces or higher elevations. Retreating Canadian high
pressure should allow for surface temperatures to quickly rise
above freezing by midday Tuesday, although `in-situ` damming
may keep temps locked in near freezing through Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should climb above freezing
with rain expected for the remainder of the afternoon, although
it should start shifting north of the area anyway. At this time,
any wintry impacts across the forecast area are expected to
remain below warning criteria, but Winter Weather Advisories
for a wintry mix may still be required across some areas,
particularly across the higher elevations of the Appalachian and
Blue Ridge Mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend will develop Wednesday and continue through
Saturday. Rain showers could occur periodically, but confidence
is low that they will be very impactful at this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As we move into the middle of the week, a substantial pattern
shift will take place across the entire CONUS. Upper-level
ridging, which had been over the west coast, will shift to the
east coast. Ensemble guidance for 500mb heights are in the 1.5
to 2 sigma range towards the end of the week into next weekend.
This should yield temperatures that are well above average for
this time of year. The presence of a lingering warm front nearby
could lend some uncertainty with just how warm we get, but
assuming it does clear to our north, temperatures well into the
70s are certainly in play by Thursday. Saturday could be the
warmest day of the period, with highs perhaps nearing 80.
However, if the front does not clear to our north, but rather
lingers nearby, daily showers and cooler temperatures can be
expected for portions of the region along/north of this
boundary. This would be most likely along the MD/PA border, and
less likely over central VA into southern MD. Still too early to
be sure what will happen, but a majority of model guidance
favors the warmer solutions at this time.
By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching from the west, but still
too early to tell if it will push through by then or not. Timing and
intensity will be a big question mark in the coming days, but not
likely to see any significant impacts from this system at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing clouds late tonight into early Monday with light snow
developing after daybreak south of BWI with periods of IFR/MVFR
cigs. Any snow accumulations stay below a half inch and mainly
be confined to grassy surfaces. A lull in precipitation is
likely late Monday afternoon into Monday evening with a wintry
mix moving in early Tuesday morning before precipitation turns
into all rain by Tuesday afternoon.
VFR conditions expected for the most part Wednesday through Thursday
night. Low confidence in areas of light rain with passing warm
fronts, low pressure systems, and cold fronts each period.
However, if a backdoor cold front forms in either period, we
could see brief periods of IFR or LIFR due to drizzle, rain, or
fog. Winds generally south to southwest 5 to 10 knots each
period. If a backdoor cold front forms, then northeastern
terminals could receive a northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots
any period.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue through tonight and peak Monday
morning before winds beging to diminish Monday afternoon.
Another period of SCA conditions is possible Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.
No marine hazards Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds generally
south to southwest 5 to 10 knots each period. A backdoor front could
bring northeast winds 5 to 10 knots any period along with reduced
visibility in fog and rain.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL