212
FXUS61 KLWX 021516
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining dry and seasonable through Wednesday with rain
  chances returning late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and seasonable through Wednesday with
rain chances returning late week.

Fair weather conditions are expected to continue through at least
Wednesday morning as broad 1032-1034 mb high pressure meanders
offshore. The surface high pressure system will sit off the Delmarva
coast today before pushing further out into the western Atlantic
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging will remain stationary over the
region during this time with widespread subsidence and southerly
return flow boosting temperatures above seasonable norms, especially
during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Moisture advection will
gradually increase tonight and again Tuesday night yielding the
potential for patchy fog on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Outside of the fog, no hazardous weather is expect until late week.

Passing high clouds will remain prevalent today as a shortwave
disturbance passes to the south. This will yield highs in the mid to
upper 60s for most outside the southern Shenandoah Valley where
temperatures will be slightly cooler due to cloud cover. Mostly
sunny skies return Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Mid 70s are expected Wednesday with increasing clouds from the
south and west given an incumbent trough of low pressure/cold
front approaching from the Mid-South/Ohio River Valley.

Much needed rain chances finally return Thursday into Friday as the
surface ridge buckles and an incumbent upper level trough pushes
east from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a
wave of low pressure and an associated cold front will eject
from the mid- Mississippi River Valley into the central
Appalachians Thursday and off the northern Delmarva/southern NJ
coast Friday into Saturday. As a result, expect increased cloud
cover Wednesday afternoon and evening with rain chances arriving
from the west late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Widespread showers are expected through Thursday with a
potential linear feature (i.e embedded t- storms) Thursday
afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather appears to
be low, but not zero. This will be something to monitor in the
coming days given the track of the resultant surface low,
presentation of the trough, and timing of the cold front as it
passes through. Additional showers are possible Friday as the
front works east and a secondary wave of low pressure pushes
along the coast. Rainfall amounts will range between 0.50-1.25"
with locally higher totals along the mountains. Amounts have
trended downward in the recent model runs with probabilities for
an inch of rain areawide sitting less than 25 percent. Even
with that said, any rain will be much needed given subtle
drought expansion from our recent 2+ week dry spell.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
evening with high pressure meandering nearby. Passing high clouds
are expected today as a shortwave disturbance passes south of the
region. Dry conditions will prevail with any showers/sprinkles
remaining south of CHO/SHD this morning. Clouds will become
scattered to broken tonight with pockets of patchy fog in the
river valleys and at terminals close to the tidal
Potomac/Chesapeake Bay. This leaves us with a narrow window for
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys between 9- 13z Tuesday morning at terminals
roughly from I-95 points east. Confidence in fog development is
low given light onshore south/southeast flow. Better moisture
advection arrives Tuesday night leading to higher probabilities
for fog in these aforementioned locations. Outside of the fog,
no significant impacts to aviation are expected heading into
midweek. Winds will remain light out of the south/southeast
today through Tuesday at less than 15 kts.

Widespread sub-VFR conditions are increasingly likely Thursday and
Friday as low pressure and a strong cold front push across the
region. Periods of rain are expected both days leading to lowering
cigs and vsbys. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast at
less than 15 kts through Thursday. High pressure returns for the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast today through Wednesday
as high pressure pushes offshore. By Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, expect the potential for southerly channeling due to the
high offshore and incumbent trough from the Ohio River Valley.
Confidence in this occurring is low with a focus over the open
waters.

Low pressure and a strong cold front will work across the waters
Thursday into Friday. Widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain near
or just below SCA levels both days with gusts under 20 kts. High
pressure returns into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST/KJP
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion