708
FXUS61 KLWX 090137
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
937 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The cold front is a bit slower to push through the area this
evening, but satellite and observational trends suggest
eastward progression should continue into the night. For the
Climate section, have added DMH (Baltimore Inner Harbor) to
cover all local climate sites.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Well above normal temperatures for first half of week.
- 2) A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder
temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances
starting Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Well above normal temperatures for first half of week.
As the weak cold front continues its trek east toward the
Chesapeake Bay, a notable drying trend is evident in surface dew
points and overall cloud cover. Additionally, the 00Z IAD
sounding indicated a precipitable water of 0.52 inches which is
down nearly three-quarters of an inch from the 12Z flight. The
mentioned boundary eventually exits off the Atlantic coast
tonight before settling near southeastern Virginia on Monday.
Expect dry and cooler air tonight with low temperatures falling
into the 40s across the area. Sunny conditions with well above
normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday, with near
record warmth lingering through mid-week. Highs reach the 70s
to low 80s, which is about 15-25 degrees above normal for mid-
March. Some daily temperature records look possible (see Climate
section below for more information).
KEY MESSAGE 2.. A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder
temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances starting
Wednesday.
Not too much change in regards to timing or hazards for the midweek
period. Still monitoring the deep digging upper level trough
dropping down out the Great Lakes region as well as a piece of
southern stream energy ejecting out of the southern Plains region.
At the surface, will lay a strong cold frontal boundary which will
flip the script when it comes to late Winter and early Spring. 6/12z
guidance still has this front progged to move through the area some
time late Wednesday into Thursday. As for severe weather, it will be
highly dependent on timing with a focus remaining west of the Blue
Ridge. This is the area where better instability and shear may be
maximized given a lead shortwave that should touch off some
convection over the mountains Wednesday afternoon as the northern
stream trough tries to take a negative tilt. CSU learning machine
probabilities remain around 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards
for the entirety of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. NSSL
probabilities are quite similar with a focus more on areas west of
US-15 and out across the Allegheny Mountains.
Meanwhile, SPC continues to highlight a 15 percent probability
zone for portions of Garrett Co. MD during the Day 4 (Wednesday
into Thursday). Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as
temperatures surge into the 70s and low 80s with dewpoint
factors getting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Shear is a bit
more uncertain with strong southwesterly flow at the surface
ahead of the front and gusty northwesterly flow likely behind
the front heading into the Thursday timeframe. Also, any early
convection over the mountains combined with a later timing of
the front (i.e Wednesday night into Thursday) could hamper
convective output. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary
threats for storms if they can develop Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.
The bigger story with the front will be the notable drop in
temperatures heading into late week. Temperatures will take a 15 to
25 degree dive Thursday with highs ranging from the 30s over the
mountains to low 60s east of I-95 and across southern MD/central VA
Piedmont. Some anafrontal snow is even possible in the Alleghenies
as the front departs Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Temperatures do level out Friday with highs in the upper 40s over
northeast MD/the Alleghenies and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across
the region. Similar values are expected this weekend despite another
front passing through the region.
Winds will gusts 20 to 30 kts (25 to 35 mph) in southwesterly flow
Wednesday boosting the temps well into the 70s before switching to
the northwest Thursday with gusts 25 to 35 kts (30-40 mph; locally
higher mtns). Rainfall amounts remain a bit uncertainty with most
locations picking up a quarter to a half an inch. Higher amounts can
be found across the Alleghenies and in areas that see convection.
Any rain will be beneficial given the recent drought concerns.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind an exiting cold front, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through Tuesday as sunnier skies return.
A strong cold front will bring the return of sub-VFR conditions as
late Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and even a few thunderstorms
look to impact the terminals during this time. Outside of the shower
and thunderstorm threat will be the wind. Expect gusty south to
southwesterly winds up to 25 kts Wednesday switching to the
northwest with gusts 25 to 35 kts Thursday afternoon. Winds will
gradually decrease late Friday with high pressure nearby. Additional
wind is expected this weekend as another front passes through the
region.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds prevail through Tuesday in a light southerly wind as
high pressure builds nearby.
SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible, especially over
the open and middle waters of the bay/tidal Potomac. A strong cold
front will cross the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will lead to gusty post frontal north to northwest flow. Gusts of 25
to 35 kts can be expected with even some northerly channeling over
the northern bay. Winds will gradually decrease Friday into Saturday
while remaining at SCA levels as another front pushes through.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily high records could be tied or set Monday through Wednesday.
Wednesday is the most likely day for warm low records to be tied/set
due to cooler air arriving after midnight Wednesday night.
Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/1964 79F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 52F/2000 57F/2016 57F/2016
Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 46F/1964 59F/2016 49F/1967
Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 56F/1921 57F/2016 53F/1955
Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 78F/2000 78F/2016 74F/1967
78F/1964
Record Warm Low 58F/1921 56F/2020 52F/1986
Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 83F/1925
Record Warm Low 59F/1921 58F/2020 53F/2016
Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 78F/2021
81F/2000
Record Warm Low 49F/2000 53F/2016 49F/1955
Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 49F/2002 57F/2016 53F/2016
49F/1992
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 79F/2000 82F/2016 76F/1967
79F/1964
Record Warm Low 54F/2000 60F/2016 56F/2016
54F/1992 56F/1955
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion