338
FXUS61 KLWX 100806
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Flood Watch for potential flash flooding has been issued for
Garrett and western Allegany Counties in western Maryland, as
well as for western Mineral County in West Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
  produce damaging winds and torrential rain, are possible
  today.

- 2) Warming temperatures and minimal precipitation chances
  expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of
which may produce damaging winds and torrential rain, are
possible today.

As of 345am, a few showers were noted on radar across Randolph
County in West Virginia. These showers are moving east toward
the central Appalachians. Another batch of showers are
over southwest Pennsylvania and are moving toward the east
across southern Pennsylvania. Throughout the day today, a few
disturbances in the mid-levels will move across our region. Rich
moisture at the boundary layer and warm temperatures, along with
some wind shear of 20 to 25 knots, could initiate heavy showers
and a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The
areas of concern in terms of flooding is western Maryland and
northeastern West Virginia as flash flood guidance values are
relatively low since there has been recent rainfall in the past
several days. WPC has Garrett County in Maryland in a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall in which flash flooding could occur.
Western Allegany and western Mineral Counties also join this
realm as possible hot spots for downpours that could lead to
flash flooding. SPC has our entire region in a Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms today into tonight. The overall combination
of the disturbances and WPC and SPC outlook has put western
Maryland and parts of northeastern West Virginia in an area
prone for some flooding. A Flood Watch for possible flash
flooding has been issued for Garrett, western Allegany, and
western Mineral Counties today into this evening from Noon to 10
pm. All other areas all the way to the Chesapeake Bay could
encounter some strong to severe thunderstorms with the
possibility of damaging wind and torrential rainfall.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above average this afternoon
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures and minimal precipitation
chances expected next week.

Next week starts out cooler and drier compared to this week
with high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s. Surface high
pressure building over the region keeps precipitation chances at
a minimum, however, upper level ridging pivoting from the
central CONUS brings increasing temperatures through midweek.
High temperatures rise into the 80s for most on Tuesday with
only those at higher elevations staying in the 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s areawide. On Wednesday and Thursday,
high temperatures rise into the 90s for most with high dew
points leading to heat indices nearing triple digits for the
I-95 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and a few strong thunderstorms could develop and move
across our region this afternoon and evening. A westerly wind
could suppress a lot of convection, but areas that do encounter
a thunderstorms could have damaging winds and heavy rain.

A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to
northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on
Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south.
Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with surface high
pressure bringing dry conditions. East/southeast winds on Monday
shift to southerly on Tuesday, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A few strong thunderstorms could move across our waters this
afternoon and evening; thus, short terms marine warnings could
be warranted. A westerly wind could suppress some thunderstorms,
but any that do move across the waters could make the water
rough for small craft.

East/southeast winds on Monday shift to southerly on Tuesday,
remaining below SCA criteria both days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will rise again tonight and Saturday night to perhaps
give Annapolis another opportunity to reach Minor Flood. A
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Annapolis,
eventhough the trend is down over the next few hours. Other
Coastal Flood Advisories could soon follow later today for
Annapolis and perhaps one or two others.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ014.
     Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...None.
WV...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     WVZ503.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/SRT
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion