211
FXUS61 KLWX 141856
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach and move through the forecast area today
before stalling to the south on Friday. Surface high pressure
briefly builds overhead Saturday and Sunday ahead of another cold
front set to move through the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface observations have a weak cold front tracking
southward across the southernmost portions of the forecast
area. Peak heating with a hot and humid airmass combined with
the frontal passage is yielding showers and thunderstorms
tracking across the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and into the evening,
with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain as the primary threats.
PWATS nearing 2 inches will lead to strong thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rain. Storm motion and coverage will
inhibit flash flooding threat across the area.

Conditions dry out overnight as the cold front moves further to
the south. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s for
those west of the Blue Ridge and low to mid 70s along and east
of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will be located just south of the
forecast area come Friday morning and is forecast to slowly drift
south towards the Carolinas throughout the day. The nearby front
will yield afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly in the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. To the north,
surface high pressure centered over Quebec will extend south over
the Mid-Atlantic. This dry Canadian airmass will limit precipitation
chances to 40% or less and additionally provide slightly cooler
temperatures. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the
80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s.

On Saturday, surface high pressure remains overhead as the front
remains over the Carolinas. An isolated rain shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out sure to the proximity of the front, although no
widespread precipitation is expected. Conditions dry out overnight
Saturday with low temperatures expected to be in the 60s for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high should push far enough to the east by Sunday that the
airmass trajectories should be more continental versus marine,
allowing temperatures to spike to the upper 80s to mid 90s. Primary
forcing with a trough and associated front should remain far enough
to the north to keep precipitation chances to a minimum. However,
some remnant showers could move into the area Sunday night. This
front will slip southward into the area Monday. However, it may make
enough progress that the highest thunderstorm chances will reside
across southern parts of the forecast area.

Toward the middle of the week, the front may stall out or waver
across the Mid Atlantic. Surface high pressure will build
southeastward from Canada across New England. The high latitude wave
train will cause the upper level ridge axis to retrograde from the
central US to the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly flow along the
east coast. The current forecast favors a cloudier and cooler
solution, with onshore flow leading to more stable conditions east
of the mountains. However, with the stalled front nearby along with
terrain forcing, showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances remain this afternoon and
evening with the greatest chances at KCHO where a front will be
nearby. Brief restrictions are possible across all terminals as
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible. Have a TEMPO group at all terminals except KMRB where
there is less confidence. Outside of precipitation VFR
conditions are expected. Northwest winds blowing 5 to 10 knots
tonight to easterly on Friday, blowing around 5 knots. Light
winds are expected both nights.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on Saturday as winds remain
light out of the east. KCHO and KMRB have the greatest chance of
seeing an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, although
precipitation farther east cannot be ruled out.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible late Sunday into Monday as a
weak front moves through the area. Easterly flow may lead to sub-VFR
ceilings Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the
weekend, gusting 10 knots or less. Light northwest winds today
become light and variable overnight. Winds shift to easterly Friday,
blowing 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. On Saturday, winds remain
light out of the east. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
waters Thursday and Friday with SMWs possible, although not likely.
No marine hazards are expected on Saturday as precipitation is
expected to remain west of the waters.

Southerly winds on Sunday will become northerly Sunday night or
Monday as a front moves through the area. Thunderstorm chances look
to remain fairly isolated. Easterly winds may increase Tuesday, but
it remains uncertain if advisories will be needed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tidal anomalies look to continue through the end of the
week given the recent full moon and light winds. While minor
tidal flooding is not expected, some cycles could go into Action
stage during the high astronomical tides (especially at
Annapolis and perhaps Dahlgren/Alexandria).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion