964
FXUS61 KLWX 281410
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Main change this morning was to bring rain chances further east,
and move them out a bit quicker than the previous forecast based
on current observations. Also made a slight increase to winds to
reflect current observations as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through mid-week
as a frontal system approaches.

2) Multiple nights of frost/freezing conditions possible late
week into the weekend.

3) Additional rain chances Friday into Saturday as a trailing
disturbance passes through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
through mid-week as a frontal system approaches.

A band of mostly light showers is still making its way across
the area this morning. This band of showers held together
better than initially thought in the overnight update, so
increased POPs further east as a result of ongoing radar trends.
Rain amounts are by no means beneficial however, with most areas
picking up just a few hundredths of an inch. Much of the
afternoon/evening should stay fairly dry as this band of showers
departs by late morning/early afternoon. Temperature trends are
generally still going as expected, with high temperatures
expected to rise in the low to mid 60s for the most part.

Mostly cloudy skies continue overnight with forecast lows in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday continues to present itself as the most active day of
the forecast period. As is common in convective forecasting in
the area, morning clouds/showers may hinder the afternoon severe
weather potential. Starting off the day, warm advection showers
will overspread the area from southwest to northeast. The actual
surface warm front should reside over southwestern Virginia
around daybreak. Through the day, expect this warm front to
slowly lift northeastward in time before reaching the metro
areas by Wednesday evening. Given the later arrival of this
milder/more unstable air mass, this might not time as well with
the peak diurnal heating cycle. If anything, the better shot
would come during the evening as a cold front pushes eastward
across the region. Despite questionable instability, the 0-6 km
shear runs around 45 to 55 knots which is plenty sufficient for
severe thunderstorm development. Thus, there is a risk of some
damaging winds as this cold front tracks through on Wednesday
evening. A Marginal Risk continues to be advertised by the
Storm Prediction Center.

Showers and a few thunderstorms linger into the overnight hours.
However, the area should experience a drying trend from west to
east behind this exiting baroclinic zone. A cool and breezy day
lies ahead for Thursday with northwesterly gusts to around 20 to
30 mph. Despite the large drop in 850-mb temperatures (8 to 10C
fall between Wednesday and Thursday afternoons), a well mixed
boundary layer should overcome this cooling effect. Forecast
highs on Thursday should push into the upper 50s to mid 60s (40s
to mid 50s across the mountains). Outside of some upslope aided
rain showers along/west of the Alleghenies, expect a dry day.
Nighttime conditions yield lows falling into the mid 30s to mid
40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple nights of frost/freezing conditions possible
late week into the weekend.

High pressure will build in across the region behind a departing
closed low pressure system. Cool air advection, drier air, and
diminishing winds could all lead to possible frost formation in
parts of the region Friday night through Sunday night. Freezing
temperatures could also evolve and spread eastward toward the more
populated areas outside of the Alleghenies. Low temperatures each
night could be widespread 30s with lower 40s well to the east. We
will see a slight uptick in the winds during the day due to diurnal
differences, but then become light to calm widespread after sunset
each day.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Additional rain chances Friday into Saturday as
a trailing disturbance passes through.

As the main trough of low pressure pulls away from the region, a
trailing disturbance or two could follow suit and bring us a few
rain showers to the region both Friday and Saturday. It is not out
of the question that higher elevations in the Alleghenies could
encounter a little light rain and snow mix but accumulations would
be light. There is even a hint that a disturbance could move across
the region early next week and bring us a little more rain relief.
Temperatures would be more seasonable early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A band of rain showers is currently moving across the area, but
is causing little/no restrictions at this time. Even the CIGs
are still VFR as this moves through, so will be making some AMDs
to the current TAFs to reflect this change.

The afternoon/evening forecast should remain dry in the wake of
this morning round of showers. Overall winds today will begin
out of the south before shifting to the southeast into tonight.

Widespread rain showers and some late afternoon to evening
thunderstorms are in the forecast for Wednesday. Restrictions
look likely for large portions of the day. Any severe
thunderstorms would be capable of damaging wind gusts. Expect
mainly southeasterly winds through the day with afternoon gusts
up to around 15 to 20 knots. Winds shift to west to
northwesterly on Wednesday night behind a strong cold front. VFR
conditions are likely on Thursday with continued northwesterly
gusts to 20 to 25 knots.

Sub-VFR conditions could occur at a few of the terminals depending
on rain shower coverage Friday and again on Saturday. Otherwise,
terminals that do not encounter these brief bursts of rain showers
could stay VFR. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots
Friday and then again on Saturday. Winds will diminish each
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory level winds continue this morning for the most
part, with southeasterly gusts up to 10 to 15 knots. However,
the line of showers moving across the area is bringing
occasional gusts of 20 knots, so an MWS was issued as a result.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday as winds
increase, with further wind increases into Wednesday night and
Thursday as winds shift to northwesterly behind a cold front.
Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible in this post- frontal
environment. Before this cold front crosses the waters late
Wednesday, some severe weather potential exists which may
warrant a few Special Marine Warnings.

Small Craft Advisories are likely needed through Thursday
afternoon and into the early evening. While most marine zones
see winds drop off into the night, winds could remain elevated
over the southern most waters.

Small Craft Advisories possible Friday and again on Saturday,
primarily in the northern Chesapeake Bay. Winds northwest 10 to
15 knots gusts 20 knots each day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow continues as high pressure exits the Atlantic coast
and waves of low pressure approach from the west. Many
locations will reach Action Stage during high tide through
Wednesday, with Minor tidal flooding possible, especially at
Annapolis and Dahlgren. A couple other tidal sites like
Alexandria and Havre de Grace could get close during the higher
of the two astronomical high tides, as well. Water levels begin
to drop off by Thursday as winds shift to northwesterly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion