374
FXUS61 KLWX 051333
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers and storms have made it to western portions of the
forecast area, with the timeline accelerating a bit compared to
the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Shower and thunderstorm chances remain today as the front
  slowly sags south through region. Marginal to Slight Risk of
  severe storms for most of VA and eastern WV.

- 2) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower and thunderstorm chances remain today as the front
slowly sags south through region. Marginal to Slight Risk of severe
storms for most of VA and eastern WV.

The MCS that we had been tracking in the OH Valley earlier this
morning has arrived into our western areas a couple hours
earlier than expected, as the system sped up this morning.
Seeing a few 40+ mph gusts in the strongest cores so far this
morning, so nothing severe at this time, but that threat does
still exist into the afternoon. This MCS is moving into an
environment with at least modest CAPE values around 1000 J/kg
and wind shear around 20-30 knots. It isn`t the most favorable
environment for organized severe weather, but there is just
enough of a combination of ingredients to yield a non-zero
severe threat through the afternoon, hence the marginal risk
(level 1 out of 5) from SPC. The slight does clip Nelson county,
but is focused primarily south. This checks out, as the
environment will become increasingly favorable for some more
organized damaging gusts the further south and east you go,
where there is more instability. For storms that do manage to
get severe today, damaging winds will be the main threat, along
with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain rates. Areas
north of I-66 should stay clear of the severe threat today,
though a pop up shower or storm can`t be ruled out into the
early afternoon hours.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s and low 80s along the
PA/MD line to around 90 just south of Charlottesville, VA. Lows
tonight will fall into the upper 50s and mid 60s as drier air
punches into the region. Humidity will slowly lower throughout
the day as the front pushes south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday, with accompanying mid-level
dry air that will bring down humidity and t-storm chances. Daily
highs drop into the low 80s, along with drier dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast.
Temperatures likely begin to creep up again during this time,
accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-level dry air tracks south
of the region with more humid air coming in from the north. This
will correspond with strong upper-level trough forming over Quebec
around midweek, with an accompanying cold front tracking across the
East Coast sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. This could
create some chances for precipitation over the region, with some
indicators for low-end instability over the area as this mid-level
moisture tracks southeast. Severe probabilities look low at this
time, but a few thunderstorms are not completely out of the question
as this front moves through.

Looking towards late next week, temperatures likely drop again in
the wake of this cold front Friday as it tracks to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sped up the timing for storms at CHO today given recent radar
trends with the MCS moving into the area out of the OH valley.
VFR conditions are still expected to prevail for the most part,
but any storms will result in VSBY reductions. Additionally, for
the metro terminals, have removed the PROB30s from earlier, as
the storm threat should stay southwest of the terminals. While a
storm cannot be ruled out, chances have dropped closer to 20
percent, with highest confidence southwest.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals Sunday
through Wednesday. Easterly winds shift southerly on Tuesday
morning. Next chance for thunderstorms arrives with a cold front
late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected, though onshore gusts could
approach marginal SCA levels late Sunday afternoon.

Northeasterly winds Monday shift southerly on Tuesday. Winds
stay below 15 knots through Monday and Tuesday. Winds could
increase to SCA levels on Wednesday ahead of an incoming cold
front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CS/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CS/CJL/SRT
MARINE...CS/CJL/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion