802
FXUS61 KLWX 080232
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
While the coverage of thunderstorms should diminish this
evening, have added an area along/east of the convective line
along I-81 per satellite/lightning trends. For aviation
purposes, will likely be adding some TEMPO groups to the D.C.
TAF sites given the ongoing line of activity.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this evening
  into tonight.

- 2) A strong cold front will cross the area late Wednesday
  into Thursday bringing the risk of strong to severe
  thunderstorms, along with a notable drop in temperatures late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this
evening into tonight.

Earlier convection which was severe in nature across the Ohio
Valley has since weakened while tracking from the Alleghenies
toward the Shenandoah Valley. Nocturnal inversions have begun
to form which has now limited any downward momentum transfer of
stronger winds aloft. The latest radar imagery shows a narrow
ragged line stretching along I-81 and pushing toward the Blue
Ridge Mountains. Given some history of producing spotty thunder,
have maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms through
around midnight. Otherwise, brief heavy downpours can be
expected this with this pencil-thin line as it toward the I-95
corridor. With increasing degrees of stability to the east,
further downticks in convective intensity are expected.

Expect a very mild night across the area in general as the cold
front slowly moves through. Passing showers, low clouds, and
drizzle are likely in many areas with overnight temperatures
ranging from the 50s to low 60s. However, do not expect
widespread fog like earlier in the week.

The cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon, with skies
clearing from northwest to southeast. Most of the area should
see sunshine for a few hours late afternoon tomorrow as sunset
is an hour later with EDT returning. Highs in the 60s to lower
70s.

Closer to normal temperatures Sunday night in the 40s. Very warm and
dry to start next week as highs reach the 70s, with low 80s possible
in central VA Tuesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2..A strong cold front will cross the area late
Wednesday into Thursday bringing the risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms, along with a notable drop in temperatures late week.

The tug of war between early Spring and late Winter comes to an end
midweek as a strong cold front crosses the region. Most of 06z/12z
deterministic/ensemble guidance does not have a front crossing until
the late Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. This would give us well
above average temps in the upper 70s and low 80s (low 70s mountains)
Wednesday before a slow cool down Thursday into the 50s and 60s (40s
mountains). This would also mute any significant cold air advection
until late Thursday night (where lows fall into the mid 20s and low
30s) and Friday (with highs in the mid 40s and low to mid 50s).

Outside of the notable 20-30 degree drop in temperatures mid to late
week, will be the concern for severe weather along the front. This
is due largely in part to the stark contrast in airmass and notable
lift along the front/incumbent upper level trough as it swings
through. Timing will be everything here in order to maximize
instability and shear. Right now, the severe threat is non zero with
a focus west of Blue Ridge/Alleghenies Wednesday and east of the
mountains Thursday pending the progression of the front. An earlier
front Wednesday afternoon and evening could spell more of a severe
weather concern west of of the Blue Ridge where a later front
Wednesday night working east toward the metros mid-Thursday morning
could limit the threat east of I-95. SPC currently has a 15
percent probability zone for severe storms west of the
Alleghenies on Day 5 (Wednesday afternoon).

This aligns with 15 to 30 percent CSU probabilities for all severe
weather hazards in this same area 12z Wednesday through 12z
Thursday. The CSU learning machine probabilities focus the 15 to 30
percent probs areawide including the metro area Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning while bleeding residual 5 to 15
percent probs for all severe probs east of I-95 Thursday morning
into Thursday afternoon. NSSL probabilities have a similar
thinking with the potential for widespread thunderstorms (some
of which could be strong to severe) during the Wednesday and
Thursday timeframe. Any storms that do form will pack the
threat of wind and heavy rainfall. As for flooding, it`s still
too early to tell if there will be issues outside the mountains
given the added saturation over the past few days and continued
drought concerns. Rain may change to snow over the Alleghenies
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as cold air advection
funnels in. Any accumulations will be light with upslope likely
lingering into Friday.

High pressure builds back into the area briefly Friday before
another front crosses this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While a majority of the terminals have rebounded from the low
ceilings within the CAD wedge, KMTN remains at IFR this evening.
Otherwise, showers pushing to the east from the Shenandoah
Valley could yield brief restrictions to the D.C. terminals
between 03Z-05Z. Additionally, stronger winds aloft above the
stabilizing boundary layer will also lead to some increased
low-level wind shear through around 06Z-08Z.

A cold front sags south into the area tonight, bringing some
periods of showers and drizzle, with the possibility of lower
CIGs/VSBY. Not expecting widespread LIFR conditions like have
occurred this past week, but some restrictions are possible
through Sunday morning.

The cold front pushes through the area Sunday afternoon, then VFR
conditions prevail Sunday night through Tuesday.

Sub-VFR conditions look to impact the area late Wednesday into
Thursday as a strong cold front crosses the region. The front will
bring increased chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms
amongst the terminals. Southerly winds Wednesday will likely switch
to the west and northwest Thursday with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds
decrease Friday as brief high pressure settles nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
Ahead of the upstream cold front, southerly winds have picked up
in nature this evening. SCA conditions are expected this
evening into tonight. The colder waters of the bay likely limit
the mixing of stronger winds off the surface, but should be
enough mixing to still gust around 20-25 knots. Winds could
still be around 20 kt Sunday morning, then winds turn northwest
Sunday afternoon behind a cold front. Sub-SCA winds prevail
Sunday night through Tuesday.

SCA conditions are possible on Wednesday (in southerly channeling)
and Thursday (post frontal northwest flow) as a strong cold front
pushes through. A few thunderstorms or gusty showers may accompany
this front, Thursday afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 30kts are expected
across the waters with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms
that may form. Winds will slowly fall back below SCA levels Thursday
night into Friday with SCAs returning Friday afternoon into Saturday
ahead of an additional frontal boundary.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ531-532-535-
     536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KRR/EST
AVIATION...BRO/KRR/EST
MARINE...BRO/KRR/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion