921
FXUS61 KLWX 291807
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast. Expecting very warm
temperatures, dry and breezy conditions behind frontal passage
on Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Very warm to end the work week, then seasonal conditions
for Halloween Weekend.
- 2)Rain chances remain uncertain for the first half of next
week with a more appreciable chance during the latter half of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm to end the work week, then seasonal
conditions for Halloween Weekend.
A weak, dry cold front is progged to cross the region Friday
morning, possibly bringing some drizzle to the higher elevations of
the Alleghenies. High pressure builds into the region Friday
afternoon through the weekend. Expect well above normal temperatures
Friday as highs reach the mid to upper 70s. Would not be surprised
if a spot or two in central VA reached 80F briefly. Some passing
clouds are likely Friday morning to early afternoon, though the
background environment is forecast to be very dry, so not expecting
much impact on temperatures. Downsloping winds make for a breezy
afternoon as winds gust around 20-25 mph, especially along/north of
I-66/US-50.
Eventually, some cooler temperatures moves in Friday night through
the weekend. Expect seasonable and dry conditions as high pressure
holds firm. A shortwave trough passing just south of the area on
Sunday won`t amount to much as it lacks sufficient moisture or
forcing to produce widespread shower activity.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances remain uncertain for the first half of
next week with a more appreciable chance during the latter half of
next week.
High pressure should hold strong enough Sunday into Monday, where
rain chances could be squashed or be confined to upslope rain
showers or sprinkles in the higher western elevations. As for
temperatures each day, they should be seasonable with highs in the
lower to middle 60s.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will
begin to push eastward from the Great Plains toward the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. This will aid in weakening the high pressure over
us. There are increasingly better rain chances ahead during this
period. We may be waiting until Wednesday night and Thursday to see
some of these rain showers, but the chances are on the rise.
Temperatures will become warmer as well Tuesday and Wednesday and
reaching into the lower to middle 70s ahead of a strong trough from
the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the weekend as high
pressure builds into the region. Breezy west to northwest winds
could gust up to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon in wake of a dry cold
front passage Friday morning.
VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Light southeast to
southerly winds around 5 knots each period.
&&
.MARINE...
A dry cold front is forecast to move across the waters Friday
morning, then high pressure builds across the region through the
weekend. SCA conditions are expected Friday afternoon into Friday
night, especially over the open waters of the bay where northerly
channeling effects are maximized. Winds diminish Saturday morning,
then drop below SCA levels by early Saturday afternoon.
No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds
light southeast to southerly winds 5 to 10 knots through the
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have remained steady today, so it is possible
sensitive locations approach minor flood stage during evening`s high
tide cycle. After that, offshore flow develops behind a cold frontal
passage Friday morning. Winds turn back around out of the south at
low speeds which could cause a modest rebound in tides by Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRR/KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion