716
FXUS61 KLWX 111504
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1004 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes were made to the forecast this morning. Thursday`s
system has been trending drier since Monday with less
precipitation amounts expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow Friday
     into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

- 2) Colder than normal temperatures and dry conditions
     expected much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow
Friday into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

One more mild day today, although a little cooler than yesterday
due to more high clouds before changes begin to occur Thursday.

Light rain is expected to overspread the area late tonight/early
Thursday as low pressure from the OH Valley passes through the
region. Rain or showers may linger into Fri morning across
northeast Maryland along an inverted sfc trof on the backside of
exiting low pressure system.

Strong cold air advection begins Thu night with temperatures
falling from the mid 50s to the mid 40s at lower elevations and
from the upper 40s Thu morning to the upper 20s by Fri morning
at the higher elevations. Snow showers will become increasingly
likely across the Alleghenies in strengthening cyclonic flow
with the best period of snow accumulation from late Thu night
through Fri evening. Even in the mountains, snow totals have
been trending lower since Monday, but an inch or two of
accumulation still seems likely. The snow will start tapering
off Saturday as low-level curvature becomes more anticyclonic
and cold air advection ceases.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Colder than normal temperatures and dry
conditions expected much of next week.

Longwave troughing will remain over the east coast through early
next week. Low level trajectories will gradually become less
favorable for upslope snow showers Sunday as low level ridging
progresses eastward from the Great Lakes. Overnight lows could be
colder in some locations Sunday and Monday nights since winds will
be lighter. While not an absolute certainty, many areas outside of
the urban centers and tidal shoreline will likely see their first
freeze by early next week. Note frost/freeze products will cease
after November 14 regardless of freezing observations, since it will
be two weeks after the average first freeze. There may be a low
pressure system that attempts to develop along the southeast coast
by Tuesday, but at this time, it appears the strong surface high
will keep the local area cool and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light rain arrives by daybreak Thu, then transitions to more
showery precip Thu afternoon before tapering off late Thu night.
Light winds today and pick up a bit in strength Thu. Then,
strong cold front crosses the area Thu evening with
strengthening NW flow and winds gusting to near 30 kt both Fri
and Sat. MVFR cigs are likely Thu-Fri in broken stratocumulus
field.

Northwest winds may gust around 30 kt Saturday and 25 kt Sunday.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected late Thu or Thu night and continuing
through the weekend in brisk NW flow.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in northwest flow
through the weekend. Gusts may approach gale force Friday and
Saturday, with winds decreasing a bit by Sunday as high
pressure gradually approaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Action Stages are likely Thu night before winds shift to NW. A
strong frontal passage will bring a prolonged period of blowout
tides Friday and through early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion