811
FXUS61 KLWX 280749
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
249 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today and a warm front will
move into the area tonight. A strong cold front will pass
through the area Monday and an upper-level trough will remain
overhead through the middle portion of the week. A reinforcing
cold front will pass through Thursday and high pressure will
return for late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will move offshore today and a return southerly
flow will develop. However, a warm front will remain to our
south and west, so it will remain chilly along with plenty of
clouds. The one exception will be the Allegheny and Potomac
Highlands where highs well into the 50s are expected due to a
downsloping flow combined with strong warm advection. Elsewhere,
highs will most likely be in the upper 30s across northern
Maryland to the mid and upper 40s for most other locations.

The low-level warm front will pass through the area today, and
this may bring a little light rain late this morning into this
afternoon.

The warm front will continue to lift northward through tonight.
Although it will likely get hung up over the area, a southerly
flow will allow for steady or rising temperatures, so it will be
quite mild for this time of year. A few showers are possible
later tonight as moisture continues to stream into the area
ahead of a strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A strong cold front will pass through the area Monday, and a few
showers may accompany the frontal passage. However, the big
story will be the strong winds that develop behind the cold
front later Monday morning into Monday afternoon from west to
east combined with much colder air moving into the area.
Temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most areas ahead of the cold
front will fall rapidly into the 30s and 40s Monday afternoon
(teens and 20s in the mountains).

Strong cold advection, rapid pressure rises, and strong low
pressure to our north (tight pressure gradient overhead) will
allow for pretty strong winds, especially Monday afternoon into
Monday night. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the
Allegheny Highlands, and Wind Advisories may be needed further
east. Wind gusts around 60 to 65 mph are possible in the
Allegheny Highlands with gusts around 40 to 55 mph possible
elsewhere.

Strong low pressure will remain to our north while an upper-
level trough remains overhead for Tuesday through Tuesday night
as well. Therefore, blustery and very cold conditions will
continue. Wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning will be
in the single digits and teens for most areas, but below zero in
the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands.

The combination of cold advection, saturation in the low-levels,
and some instability within the DGZ will likely cause upslope
snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front Monday afternoon
through Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday as well. A few
snow showers may even spill east of the mountains as well.

A few inches of snow are possible along/west of the Allegheny
Front and Winter Weather Advisories may be warranted.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper-level trough will lift northward a bit for Wednesday
and it will not be quite as cold, but still blustery and chilly.
A reinforcing cold front will pass through the area Thursday and
potent jetmax/shortwave in the northern stream may be enough to
bring a period of light snow to portions of the area. This will
continue to be monitored. Very cold conditions are expected
behind the frontal passage for late in the week as Canadian high
pressure builds toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs are most likely through tonight due to warm advection
ahead of a warm front. IFR conditions are possible later this
evening into the overnight as moisture continues to increase
along with low-level wind shear (south to southwest flow around
40 to 45 knots around 2kft). A little light rain is possible
late this morning and afternoon, but the rain will be spotty.

Cigs should improve Monday morning behind the warm front, but a
strong cold front will pass through the terminals. A wind shift
to the west and northwest is expected with the frontal passage
with gusts around 40 to 45 knots possible Monday afternoon into
Monday night.

More gusty winds are likely for Tuesday before subsiding Tuesday
night.

Weak high pressure may build closer for Wednesday before a
reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday. VFR conditions
are expected most of the time, but a period of light snow cannot
be ruled out Thursday. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.MARINE...
A southerly flow will increase this afternoon into tonight as a
warm front slowly moves into the area. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the waters tonight, but it may be close over the
upper and middle Tidal Potomac River this afternoon as well.

A strong cold front will pass through the waters Monday, and
winds will rapidly increase behind the cold front as they shift
to the west and northwest. The cold front is most likely to pass
through from west to east between 16 and 19Z. A line of gusty
showers may accompany the frontal passage as well. A Gale Watch
is in effect for the waters late Monday morning through Monday
night. Wind gusts around 35 to 40 knots are possible.

Gusty winds will continue Tuesday as well, and gale-force winds
are possible, especially over the northern waters. More SCA
gusts are likely during the middle portion of the week before a
reinforcing cold front moves through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will rebound in southerly flow today into Monday
morning. Annapolis may be near minor flood threshold around
times of high tide through midday Monday.

A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected later Monday
through Tuesday night. Tidal blowout conditions are possible
Monday night through Tuesday night. A Low Water Advisory may be
needed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for MDZ008.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     MDZ008.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for VAZ503-504.
WV...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion