863
FXUS61 KLWX 091939
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Impressive gusts of 30-40 mph occurred late this morning to
afternoon in the climo wind-favored regions. It was especially
noticeable along and north of Route 50.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow Friday
  into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures
follow Friday into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk
conditions.

A strong upper trough over the Northeast this afternoon quickly
departs into the Atlantic tonight. A warm front lifts north through
the area tonight, then weak surface ridging builds in and over the
region through mid week. Dry conditions prevail with varying
southwest to west winds Tuesday becoming southeast on Wednesday. The
warm front brings some cloudiness tonight, but that quickly
dissipates by late Tuesday morning. An approaching upper trough from
the OH and TN Valleys brings increasing clouds Wednesday. The main
thing to focus on is the well above normal temperatures for Tuesday
and Wednesday as highs reach the upper 60s to around 70F.

Widespread showers remain likely (70-90% chance) Thursday and into
Friday as a low pressure system and associated cold front move
through our region. Thursday afternoon and evening, some embedded
thunderstorms are possible (20-30% chance). As this system advects
eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, precipitation could linger into
Saturday, although primarily confined to the Allegheny Mountains.
Behind Thursday`s cold front, temperatures are forecasted to be
10-15 degrees below early November normals. These cool
temperatures in combination with brisk winds and ample cloud
cover will result in the season`s first noticeable cold period.

The Allegheny mountains will likely (70-80% chance) see their first
accumulating snow of the season Friday into Saturday. This far
out, finer scale features and processes are unable to be
resolved, so considerable uncertainty in snowfall totals exist.
With northwesterly winds, the greatest snowfall amounts will lie
on the windward side of the Allegheny mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the middle of this week. Gusty
northwest winds around 20-25 knots quickly diminish by sunset this
evening. Winds turn southwest to west overnight through Tuesday
evening, then become light southeast on Wednesday.

Behind Thursday`s cold frontal passage, northwesterly winds will
strengthen with gusty winds through Friday. Thursday evening,
widespread showers and a few scattered thunderstorms could reduce
flight categories below VFR criteria across all terminals. Depending
on the track of the low pressure, sub-VFR conditions could linger
into Friday especially during periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories continue through this evening for all of the
waters as northwest winds gust around 20-30 knots. A warm front
lifts north across the local waters tonight. This brings winds back
from the southwest to west Tuesday, though much lighter at around 10-
15 knots. High pressure over the area through Wednesday causes winds
to shift to southeast, but again looking at 5-10 knots of wind.

Thursday evening, northwesterly winds strengthen behind a cold front
with gusts up to 35mph through Friday. Small craft advisories are
likely late Thursday through Friday with Gales possible Friday
afternoon over the Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KVH
AVIATION...KRR/KVH
MARINE...KRR/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion