399
FXUS61 KLWX 151823
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
123 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued to trend dew points on the low end of guidance for
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
  diminishing winds and clouds.

- 2) Dry conditions persist through the end of the week as
  temperatures gradually increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
diminishing winds and clouds.

Northwest flow off the Great Lakes continues. This is resulting
in intermittent snow showers along and west of the Allegheny
Front, with sprinkles possible to the east through this evening
as multiple waves aloft pass through.

Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy for most as
stratocumulus pivots overhead. Northwest gusts of 15 to 30 mph
will gradually subside through Monday. Gusts will be slower to
subside at higher elevations (especially at night compared to
the lower elevations). Clouds will also gradually thin and
scatter out during this period.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions persist through the end of the week
as temperatures gradually increase.

Broad upper-level ridging building over the central Plains will
gradually track east throughout the week, with surface high pressure
lingering over the Mid-Atlantic for several days in the wake of last
week`s cold front. Winds remain light for the foreseeable future as
this ridging builds overhead before transitioning to a zonal flow
pattern potentially by the upcoming weekend. Overall, this will lead
to a week of predominantly clear skies and increasing temperatures
to well above seasonable normals, potentially nearing 70F as we
approach mid-to-late week. Overnight lows remain in the 40s mid to
late week.

Looking towards next weekend, precipitation chances could increase
somewhat as low pressure forming over the Great Lakes tracks east
towards the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be mainly dry for all TAF sites through the upcoming
week. Some spotty 15 knot gusts may linger into tonight. By
Monday, winds taper off a little bit more, before becoming much
lighter by Monday night.

VFR conditions are anticipated Tuesday through the end of the week
as high pressure keeps conditions dry. Skies should remain mostly
clear, with winds staying below 10 knots generally. Winds generally
flow WSW before shifting northwesterly Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through tonight for the Chesapeake Bay and
adjoining estuaries from Sandy Point MD to Smith Point VA as
well as the lower tidal Potomac River. Winds will taper off
into Monday, but SCAs may still need to be extended at least for
a portion of the day before that occurs.

WNW Winds stay below SCA thresholds Tuesday through the end of the
week. Winds shift southerly by Thursday night before shifting back
to northerly on Friday, generally staying below 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Brisk winds will continue through Monday with waves of clouds,
but the magnitude will be less than recent days.

High pressure gradually builds overhead into the middle of the
week, then temperatures will begin to warm mid to late week.
During this timeframe, while winds will diminish, RH values
will go down substantially. The dry air really builds in
starting Tuesday into Tuesday night, and looks to continue for
several days thereafter. Overnight recoveries, especially on the
ridges, will likely be poor as well starting Tuesday night.
Expect afternoon RH values to drop well into the 20s each day.
This will also be paired with seasonably warm temperatures, so
this will really act to dry out already very dry fuels.

Not helping matters is that there is no precipitation expected
east of the Appalachians through at least the end of the week.
Given the setup, will really be watching for any potential dry
frontal passages in the long range as the next days to really
watch out for.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/SRT
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion