659
FXUS61 KLWX 091828
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon as plenty
of sunshine was the flavor. Slow RH recoveries later tonight
into Tuesday morning; therefore, some patchy fog could develop
mainly near the Chesapeake Bay or over the bay. The fire-weather
section has details of what to anticipate over the next day or
two.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Well above normal temperatures this afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon.
- 2) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible west of I-95
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes
through. A significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds
will accompany the front Thursday.
- 3) Another cold front will follow for Friday into Saturday
delivering cooler temperatures and breezy conditions this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Well above normal temperatures this afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon.
Had to increase afternoon temperatures this afternoon as
sunshine and light to southerly winds were the factors that lead
to these temperatures. We are currently looking at widespread
lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Much of the same warmth
anticipated Tuesday and again on Wednesday with temperatures in
the middle 70s with a couple of locations making it to 80
degrees. Dry conditions once again on Tuesday and plenty of
sunshine after a brief period of patchy fog (mainly near the
Chesapeake Bay) later tonight. Record high temperatures may be
in jeopardy on Wednesday as this day should be the warmest day.
Some daily temperature records look possible (see Climate
section below for more information).
KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
west of I-95 Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold
front pushes through. A significant drop in temperatures and
gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday.
Still monitoring the progression of a deep digging positively
northern stream trough out of the Great Lakes and it`s associated
strong cold front which looks to cross the area during the late
Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. Meanwhile, southern stream energy
will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
SPC currently has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) west of a line from
from Frederick/Hagerstown, MD southwest toward
Strasburg/Harrisonburg/Monterey, VA. There is a Marginal Risk (Level
1 out of 5) east of these areas (including both the DC/Baltimore
metros) with a focus mainly west of I-95. The primary threat with
storms would be wind and locally heavy rainfall. Secondary threats
would include an isolated tornado given the increased shear/helicity
and large hail with dry air aloft. CSU probabilities remain between
15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards areawide while NSSL/NCAR
probs generally focus on areas, mainly west of US-15 and in
particularly west of the Blue Ridge. CIPS probabilities remain less
than 10 percent for this event.
Plenty of uncertainty remain in regards to the severe weather threat
Wednesday into Thursday. Timing will be important along with cloud
cover. 6z/12z model soundings from KCHO, KIAD, and KHGR all have
hints of a capping inversion which could squander convective
development. The question is to if the cap breaks and to when it
happens with a focus west of Frederick, MD down toward the I-66/US-
50 corridor and points west per the latest CAM guidance. One or two
strong storms could fire within the warm sector Wednesday afternoon
along a lead shortwave trough out ahead of the cold frontal
boundary. Any of these storms could become severe (i.e either
multicellular clusters or supercells) given the added shear and
instability to work with. Confidence drops off with the severe
threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing
late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty
line of shower could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the
front pushes through. The severe threat diminishes Thursday as the
front pushes through. Expect any residual moisture over the
mountains to change to snow with coating to 1" expected on
grassy/elevated surfaces.
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, will be the concern for
gusty winds and a significant drop in temperatures for the end of
the workweek. Expect gusty south/southwesterly flow Wednesday ahead
of the boundary switching to the west and northwest Thursday behind
the front. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph (40 to 50 mph along the ridges) can
be expected in warm air advection Wednesday afternoon. There is
some uncertainty in regards to these gusts giving mixing. With gusty
south/southwesterly flow expect, near record breaking highs in the
mid 70s and low 80s (low 70s mtns.). Temperatures take a 15 to 30
degree dive Thursday as gusty west to northwest flow ramps up.
Confidence is a bit higher here for the wind given the residual
gradient/high pressure returning from the south. A non-diurnal
temperature spread is expected with highs ranging from the upper 30s
over the mountains to upper 50s along and east of I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Another cold front will follow for Friday into
Saturday delivering cooler temperatures and breezy conditions
this weekend.
Brief high pressure settles south of the region Friday morning
before shifting offshore Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will eject eastward from the Great Lakes toward New England
with it`s associated cold front expected to pass through the area
late Friday into Saturday. This will result in a period of gusty
winds and perhaps a few scattered rain showers (mainly north of I-
66/US-50). Depending on how cool temperatures this could bring in a
chance for wintry/snow precipitation over the mountains. Uncertainty
is still high with this event, and additional model runs will help
discerning the potential impacts expected with this early weekend
system.
A stronger cold front looks to impact the area early next week
bringing in even colder temperatures for back half of March. This
aligns with current CPC 8-14 day trends lean below normal during the
March 18-24 timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
morning.Winds will remain light out of the south today and Tuesday
at less than 10 kts. Some patchy fog is possible tonight and
especially Tuesday night as more warm/mist air moves in.
A strong cold front will bring the return of sub-VFR conditions as
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Showers and even a few
thunderstorms look to impact the terminals during this time. Outside
of the shower and thunderstorm threat will be the wind. Expect gusty
south to southwesterly winds up to 25 kts Wednesday switching to the
northwest with gusts 25 to 35 kts Thursday afternoon.
Winds should gradually decrease on Friday before picking back up
again, accompanied by a southerly wind shift as another front passes
through the region. Another wind shift is expect with a stronger
front early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds prevail through Tuesday in a light southerly wind as
high pressure builds nearby.SCA conditions are possible in southerly
channeling Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are
possible, especially over the open and middle waters of the
bay/tidal Potomac.
A strong cold front will cross the waters late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will lead to gusty a few gusty showers (SMW may be
needed as these showers push through) and gusty post-frontal north
to northwest flow. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected with even
some northerly channeling over the northern bay. Winds will
gradually decrease early Friday before picking back up again as a
second front passes through Friday night into early Saturday
morning. This will result in a southerly wind shift & persistent SCA
conditions into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures are expected again Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, with mostly south to
southwest winds across the area. Tonight will be poor in RH
recovery above 3000 feet, where RH may not recover out of the
30s. Some isolated spots see lower RH values, especially in the
valleys out west. Additionally, southwest- facing aspects could
see wind gusts up to 20 mph.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday are forecast between 35-45 percent.
Smoke dispersion will be very good to excellent Monday and Tuesday
due to increasing transport winds.
A cold front impacts the area Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a
potential of gusty winds, wetting rain, thunderstorms, and colder
temperatures to finish out the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily high records could be tied or set Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wednesday is the most likely day for warm low records to be tied/set
due to cooler air arriving after midnight Wednesday night.
Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/1964 79F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 52F/2000 57F/2016 57F/2016
Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 46F/1964 59F/2016 49F/1967
Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 56F/1921 57F/2016 53F/1955
Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 78F/2000 78F/2016 74F/1967
78F/1964
Record Warm Low 58F/1921 56F/2020 52F/1986
Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 83F/1925
Record Warm Low 59F/1921 58F/2020 53F/2016
Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 81F/2016 80F/2016 78F/2021
81F/2000
Record Warm Low 49F/2000 53F/2016 49F/1955
Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 49F/2002 57F/2016 53F/2016
49F/1992
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 9 March 10 March 11
Record High 79F/2000 82F/2016 76F/1967
79F/1964
Record Warm Low 54F/2000 60F/2016 56F/2016
54F/1992 56F/1955
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KLW/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/SRT
MARINE...KLW/CJL/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion