398
FXUS61 KLWX 041450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns today through Monday, then an area of low
pressure approaches from the west by the middle of the week.
Still, dry conditions are likely to prevail for most of the week
with above normal temperatures likely during the middle to end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main change was to incise cldcvr this morning through midday as
clouds remain. No real signs of breaking up, so may have to
increase cldcvr through the afternoon. If later trends of
breakup continue, may have to lower temps a couple degrees for
highs. Otherwise, previous discussion follows...

Northwest winds pick up this afternoon behind the front, with
some areas gusting around 15-20 mph for a few hours. That will
make it feel rather chilly along/north of I-66/US-48 where highs
only reach the mid to upper 30s. To the south, more sunshine
will allow highs to reach the low to mid 40s. By the late
afternoon, should see abundant sunshine across the area. Dry
tonight as lows settle in the lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead early Monday will slide offshore by Monday
afternoon. The return of southerly flow begins a steady warming
trend that will peak later in the week. Highs in the 40s to low 50s
Monday jump the 50s to around 60F on Tuesday. An area of low
pressure moves across the central Great Lakes Tuesday, and then
likely passes well north of the area Tuesday night. This could bring
some rain showers to the Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the mid to late week pattern, above average temperatures will be
the norm owing to building heights aloft and mainly low-level warm
advection. A northern stream shortwave tracking to the north drives
a cold front through the region on Wednesday. This brings some
shower activity to the Alleghenies along with a wind shift over to
northwesterly. As this system exits into the Atlantic, mid/upper
heights build in earnest for Thursday into Friday. Overall
temperatures through the period should range from the 50s to mid
60s, with 40s to 50s across mountain locales. At night, temperatures
largely remain above freezing, particularly for Thursday and Friday
nights.

There are hints in the global guidance of a pattern shift by late in
the week which ushers in more widespread rain chances by Friday.
This eventually lends itself to cooling temperatures by late next
weekend which is evident in multiple ensemble systems. For just
beyond this period of interest, ensemble box-and-whisker plots show
this fall off in temperatures by the January 11-13 period. Until
then, above average temperatures should dominate.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region through
Tuesday with no precipitation. Northwest winds could gust around 20
knots this afternoon, then winds turn southerly Monday and
Tuesday.

VFR conditions are likely on Wednesday and Thursday. A frontal
system tracks through on Wednesday, but any shower chances should
remain back along the Alleghenies. Winds shift to northwesterly for
the second half of Wednesday. Eventually a return flow ensues
by Thursday afternoon which brings south to southeasterlies to
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will pick up slightly this afternoon, and there
could be occasional gusts around 20 knots for a few hours. It
does not look widespread or consistent enough at this time to
issue a Small Craft Advisory. So, this threat will be handled
with Marine Weather Statements.

The high moves offshore tonight and that allows southerly winds to
return Monday and Tuesday. Southerly channeling could result in SCA
conditions Monday afternoon across most of the waters. Beyond that,
sub-SCA winds are forecast through Tuesday night.

Favorable marine conditions are expected for both Wednesday and
Thursday. A frontal system tracks across the waters midday Wednesday
which results in a shift to northwesterly winds. Eventually winds
turn southeasterly on Thursday afternoon as return flow
commences.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CPB/KRR
MARINE...BRO/CPB/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion