506
FXUS61 KLWX 290029
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
729 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move into the area tonight. A strong cold
front will pass through the area Monday. An upper-level trough
will remain overhead through the middle portion of the week. A
reinforcing cold front will pass through Thursday. High
pressure will return for late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Latest surface and upper air analyses depict several features
of note, which will impact our region through the next couple
of days. First, and most importantly, is a powerful surface low
pressure system developing over the central CONUS ahead of a
digging upper trough coming out of the northern Plains, and is
currently producing a slew of severe weather warnings across the
Midwest. This system will play a pivotal role in our next
couple of days of weather. Secondly, surface analysis also
depicts the warm front associated with this system just off to
our southwest. This is resulting in some light showers well out
ahead of this front. The warm front will continue to lift
northward through tonight. Although it will likely get hung up
over the area, a southerly flow will allow for steady or rising
temperatures, so it will be quite mild for this time of year. A
few showers are possible later tonight as moisture continues to
stream into the area ahead of a strong cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned area of low pressure will rapidly deepen and
move into the Great Lakes region on Monday and eventually into
Quebec by Tuesday. A powerful cold front associated with this
low will pass through the area Monday. A few showers may
accompany the frontal passage, but likely won`t amount to very
much.
The big story will be the strong winds that develop along and
behind the cold front Monday morning into Monday afternoon from
west to east combined with much colder air moving into the
area. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most areas ahead of
the cold front may spike briefly, but will then fall rapidly
into the 30s and 40s Monday afternoon (teens and 20s in the
mountains). Strong cold advection, rapid pressure rises, and
strong low pressure to our north (tight pressure gradient
overhead) will allow for strong to damaging winds, especially
Monday afternoon into Monday night. A High Wind Warning is now
in effect for the Potomac Highlands and the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and Wind Advisories were issued for most of our area
east of there. Wind gusts around 60 to 65 mph are expected in
the Allegheny Highlands and Blue Ridge, with gusts around 45 to
55 mph expected elsewhere. EPS probs continue to show chances of
hurricane force wind gusts over the Alleghenies Monday evening.
The combination of cold advection, saturation in the low levels,
and some instability within the DGZ will likely result in
accumulating upslope snow showers along/west of the Allegheny
Front Monday afternoon through Monday night, and possibly into
Tuesday as well. A few snow showers may even spill east of the
mountains as well. Given the factors mentioned above, as well as
an uptick in the 12z guidance, snow totals were bumped up a
couple inches, thus necessitating a Winter Weather Advisory for
Garrett and western Grant/Pendleton Counties during this
period. Initial forecast is for around 3 to 5 inches during this
time, with isolated higher amounts possible west of the
Allegheny ridge. Along with snow accumulations, the strong winds
in this region will result in blowing snow and whiteout
conditions at times.
Strong low pressure will remain to our north while an upper-
level trough remains overhead for Tuesday through Tuesday night
as well. Therefore, blustery and very cold conditions will
continue. Wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning will be
in the single digits and teens for most areas, but below zero in
the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through Friday, a broad negative height anomaly centered over
eastern Canada will remain a primary fixture within the synoptic
pattern. Within this cyclonic flow regime, a series of shortwaves
are forecast to rotate through the northeastern U.S. This setup
helps maintain a seasonably chilly pattern to finish the year 2025
and entering the new year. Model soundings along and west of the
Allegheny Front depict mainly westerly flow within the entire
troposphere. While a west-northwesterly wind field would be better
for optimal upslope snow shower generation, this should be more than
sufficient for mountain snow accumulation. One notable limiting
factor is the low moisture content with precipitable water values
averaging around 0.15 to 0.20 inches. However, some travel delays
are certainly possible across portions of the Alleghenies on
Wednesday into Thursday/New Year`s Day, especially given the
strength of a reinforcing Arctic front New Year`s Eve. For
areas off to the east, some snow showers could spread into
downstream locations on New Year`s Eve/early Day as the front
sweeps through. Right now such chances are generally limited to
the 15 to 25 percent range, especially north of I-66. Behind
this front, expect highs in the 30s to low 40s to start the new
year, with 20s to around freezing in the mountains.
The upper low encompassing much of eastern Canada gradually begins
to lift northward which allows heights to rise some over the eastern
U.S. The surface response generally keeps an area of weak high
pressure over the northeastern U.S. on Friday and into the weekend.
With a cold front off to the south, a post-frontal air mass largely
keeps seasonable temperatures in place into next weekend. Forecast
highs will be in 30s to mid 40s, with overnight lows mainly in the
20s with teens across the Allegheny Front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs are most likely through tonight due to warm advection
ahead of a warm front. IFR conditions are possible later this
evening into the overnight as moisture continues to increase
along with low-level wind shear (south to southwest flow around
40 to 45 knots around 2kft). Some guidance hints at close to
LIFR, but the strengthening winds in the low levels could
preclude clouds from forming and persisting that low.
Cigs should improve Monday morning behind the warm front, but a
strong cold front will pass through the terminals. A wind shift
to the west and northwest is expected with the frontal passage
with gusts around 40 to 45 knots Monday afternoon into Monday
night. More gusty winds are likely for Tuesday before
subsiding Tuesday night.
Largely VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday through Friday
across the area terminals. A few snow showers could move across
the area early Thursday, but confidence is low at this time.
Initial winds will be westerly before giving way to
northwesterlies behind a cold front on Thursday. Forecast gusts
each afternoon could near 20 to 25 knots at times. Winds largely
meander between westerly and northwesterly on Friday with
decreasing wind fields.
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow will increase through tonight as a warm front
slowly moves into the area. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the waters tonight.
A strong cold front will pass through the waters Monday, and
winds will rapidly increase behind the cold front as they shift
to the west and northwest. The cold front is most likely to pass
through from west to east between 14Z and 17Z. A line of gusty
showers may accompany the frontal passage as well. A Gale
Warning is now in effect for the waters Monday morning through
Tuesday morning. Wind gusts around 35 to 45 knots are expected,
with highest gusts in the upper tidal Potomac River, as well as
the upper sections of the Chesapeake Bay.
Gusty winds will continue Tuesday as well, and gale-force winds
are possible, especially over the northern waters.
Brisk west to southwesterly winds overspread the waters on
Wednesday. Some gusts near 20 knots at times which may warrant Small
Craft Advisories across portions of the waters. A cold front tracks
through on Thursday which yields a shift to northwesterly winds.
While not explicitly forecast to reach advisory criteria, it
certainly looks possible based on the overall pattern with the
passage of a strong Arctic front.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will rebound in southerly flow through Monday
morning. Annapolis may be near minor flood threshold around
times of high tide through midday Monday.
A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected later Monday
through Tuesday night. Tidal blowout conditions are possible
Monday night through Tuesday night. A Low Water Advisory may be
needed.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MDZ008.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ003.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
MDZ501-502-509-510.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VAZ036>040-053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VAZ025>031.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
VAZ503-504.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
WVZ050>053-055.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
WVZ501>506.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ530>543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ530>543.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/DHOF
NEAR TERM...BJL/DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BJL/BRO/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...BJL/BRO/DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion