160
FXUS61 KLWX 271423
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1023 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Initial round of showers along the front now dissipating, but
cooler temperatures steadily working their way south. Expect
additional showers this afternoon as temperatures cool to the
40s to low 50s for the evening commute.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front moves south of the area through tonight
  ushering in much cooler weather to start the weekend.

- 2) Temperatures gradually warm late in the weekend through mid
  next week with daily precipitation chances starting Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front moves south of the area
through tonight ushering in much cooler weather to start the
weekend.

Northerly winds have overtaken most of the area as of late this
morning, with the initial line of showers starting to dissipate
along I-66/US-48. As the front continues to slide south this
afternoon there will be another round of showers along and south
of I-66. Temperatures are expected continue falling over the
course of the day reaching the 40s to lower 50s by sunset.

Temperatures will continue their fall tonight reaching lows in
the 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Saturday. Gusty northwest
winds will make it feel even cooler to start the day Saturday,
with wind chills in the teens and 20s around daybreak. Sunny
skies will enable temperatures to climb into the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

Winds will decrease Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as
high pressure moves overhead. Clear skies and calm winds will
lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions. This enables
temperatures to drop back into the 20s in most locations (lower
to middle 30s in Washington DC/Baltimore MD, and along the
Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures gradually warm late in the weekend
through mid next week with daily precipitation chances starting
Monday.

A warming trend is expected next week with daily rain chances.
Upper-level ridging will build over the SE US Monday through
midweek. At the surface, high pressure will glide offshore
allowing for a southerly return flow. To the north, a cold front
will try to work its way south through the week, but will be
met with resistance by the SE ridge. In turn, this will yield
daily rain shower chances until the front passes. The actual
front itself looks to pass Thursday or Friday.

Temperatures through the week look to increase daily starting
in the 60s Monday for most areas, with 70s Tuesday and Wednesday
before near 80F on Thursday ahead of the front. There is some
spread regarding frontal position, and if a backdoor front
sneaks in from the northeast resulting in a cool air wedge.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds have shifted to the north behind the cold front, with some
variability in cloud decks ranging from MVFR to spotty IFR. As
the front continues to slowly move south, expect some additional
impacts at area terminals through the mid to late afternoon.

Conditions should gradually improve back to VFR by this evening,
with chances for showers gradually winding down from north to
south. Some northerly gusts of 20-25 kts are possible.

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals tonight through
Saturday night as high pressure gradually builds in from the
west. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest Saturday morning,
before decreasing in magnitude Saturday afternoon, eventually
going calm Saturday night as high pressure moves overhead.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday high pressure shifts offshore.
South winds on Sunday will be generally light at 5 to 10 knots
with gusts up to 15 knots. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected
Monday into Tuesday aside from any showers associated with a cold
front stalling to the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have shifted north late this morning as a cold front
slowly progresses across the waters. Just ahead of the front
there is a slight surge in north winds gusting around 20-25
knots, but winds do quickly decrease behind that. Wind gusts the
rest of the day will be up and down between 10-15 knots and
20-25 knot gusts. SCAs continue through the day.

After a brief period of lighter winds this evening, another
surge of higher end SCA gusts moves through within northwesterly
flow late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds start to
decrease late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as high
pressure builds overhead. South winds Sunday are expected to be
light to start, but increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
in southerly channeling.

SCA conditions are possible across all waters into Monday
morning, and again Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slide south of the area with multiple weak waves
of low pressure riding along it through tonight. High pressure will
build over the region through the weekend, then move offshore early
next week. A frontal system stalling to the northwest of the area
will bring repetitive chances for rain next week.

Depending on the extent of wetting rain, fire weather conditions
may potentially become an issue this weekend. Minimum RH values
are forecast to be in the 20s both days this weekend, with winds
gusting to around 15 to 20 mph out of the northwest on Saturday,
and then out of the south on Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ530-
     531-535-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/CPB/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/CPB/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion