816
FXUS61 KLWX 090814
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
414 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry and warmer today.

- 2) Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight through
  Thursday night.

- 3) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue this weekend
  and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and warmer today.

High pressure over the Mid- Atlantic today and a southerly flow
will allow for temperatures to be about 5 to 7 degrees above
average this afternoon. Although we can`t rule out a shower in
spots between the Appalachian Front and the Shenandoah Valley
this afternoon, most areas will remain dry. High temperatures
may approach 90.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight
through Thursday night.

As the high breaks down and continues to slide to the east
tonight into early Thursday, a cold front will approach the
region from the northwest. It will be relatively slow in
movement to the south and east. A couple of showers or a rumble
of thunder could develop along the front and move into western
Maryland overnight tonight shortly after midnight and continue
to propagate southeastward throughout the night. Due to the lack
of daytime heating, the convection should be mainly due to low
level moisture and gradual lift from an approaching cold front.
Some upper level energy and a jet streak aloft could add
additional lift to showers and a couple of thunderstorms across
the region during the day Thursday and into Thursday night.
However, a westerly component to the wind in the lower levels
could act as a downsloping effect and squash some of this
convection in a few places. Highs Thursday could reach the
upper 80s to near 90 and dewpoint temperatures could reach the
upper 60s to low 70s. The front should be slow to move to the
south and east that showers and thunderstorms could linger well
into the night Thursday night. Showers and any thunderstorms
should become more spotty or isolated Friday morning with the
front nearly stalling across the Virginia Piedmont. Highs Friday
should be a couple of degrees cooler due to cloud cover,
convection and a northerly component to the wind on the north
side of the front.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue
this weekend and into early next week.

On Saturday, surface high pressure over New England shifts offshore
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Surface winds shift
to southerly, ushering in a more humid airmass. With increased
humidity, showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday
although are expected to remain below severe criteria.

Going into next week, precipitation chances linger but remain low
(less than 20%). A low pressure system is currently forecast to
track across the Great Lakes with the associated cold fronts
impacting the mid-atlantic. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
each day with high humidity values yielding heat indices in the low
90s for some.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the
week, with two exceptions. Shower and t-storm activity could
bring brief restrictions on Thursday (mainly in the afternoon
and/or evening). Winds remain S/SW through tonight (with some
gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon) until a cold front
brings a shift to W/NW Thursday morning.

Low clouds are possible late Friday night. Winds remain out of
the south Saturday and Sunday with daily precipitation chances
bringing brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Winds on Saturday
gust 10 to 15 knots with winds remaining light on Sunday. into
Saturday with sub-VFR conditions. Showers are possible Saturday
along with a possible afternoon thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are likely to increase this afternoon into tonight, when
advisories will be in effect for all waters. Winds shift to the
west and northwest and could remain gusty Thursday as a cold
front crosses, possibly bringing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Sub-SCA level north to northwesterly winds are
most likely over the waters on Friday.

Winds shift to southerly on Saturday with southerly channeling
yielding Small Craft Advisory criteria winds in the afternoon. Winds
diminish overnight and remain below SCA criteria on Sunday.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels should continue to decrease through today. Sensitive
sites could approach minor flood at times, as well, mainly late
tonight into early Thursday morning, though west- of- south
flow by this time lowers confidence. More notable water level
decreases will occur Thursday behind a cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/CJL
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion