217
FXUS61 KLWX 242025
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the Mid-Atlantic today.
A warm front and associated wave of low pressure will approach
from the Ohio Valley on Thursday, followed by a potent cold
front surging south Thursday night. A stronger cold front will
arrive late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures have  by several degrees today across the area
given westerly downsloping flow. Expect abundant sunshine to
prevail for most, with high clouds gradually moving in from the
west by evening ahead of a shortwave.

Aforementioned SW and weak surface low will approach from the
Ohio Valley tonight. The chance for some showers will increase
by daybreak. Not exactly a consensus with how much moisture
makes it east of the mountains, but this

While precipitation will likely be in the form of rain, will
have to monitor for any cold air trapped in valleys that are
able to radiate during the evening. The most likely place for
subfreezing temperatures will be near and northeast of
Baltimore, where any precipitation likely doesn`t arrive until
after daybreak. Otherwise lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers likely continue across southern areas Christmas morning.
Expect a drying trend through the afternoon, though some upslope
rain showers are possible across the Alleghenies. Clouds may be
slow to clear, but any sun will help boost temperatures in the
mild airmass. A notably spread in temps will occur with NE MD
remaining in the 40s and central VA possibly reaching the 60s.
Thereafter, a strong high will move toward Quebec and wedge
down the Appalachians in the wake of the cold front (1030-1032mb
high). Colder and drier air will advect into the area Thursday
night, with most areas reaching near or below freezing.

With the high in a favorable position and cold air in place, the
set-up is prime for a CAD event. The next SW will move in from
the NW Friday. Not much has changed wrt timing as it favors the
most widespread precipitation Friday afternoon and evening
(earlier start in the Alleghenies). While some snow could be in
the cards near and northeast of Baltimore as indicated by some
profiles, the warm air aloft will make sleet and freezing rain
the predominant precipitation types (or rain where temperatures
are above freezing). There appears to be two local maxima in QPF
regardless of precip type (western MD and NE MD). Western MD is
very likely to see most of the precipitation fall as freezing
rain, so have issued a Winter Storm Watch for eastern Garrett
into western Allegany counties. This area holds the cold air the
longest, and QPF and corresponding ice probabilities warrant a
watch due to the likelihood of >0.25" of ice. Across NE MD,
there is more uncertainty with the ptype. Currently favoring
more sleet than anything, though ice amounts of a tenth or two
are certainly possible. Regardless, may not meet true warning
criteria due to the combination of multiple ptypes. There will
also be a precipitation gradient from north to south, with
lighter amounts to the south. Near and south of I-66/US-50,
wintry accumulations should start decreasing due to a
combination of warmer surface temperatures and lower
precipitation amounts. However, there is still room for the
forecast to shift. The low will transfer off the Mid Atlantic
coast Friday night with potential for nondiurnal temperatures as
some places may mix down some of the warmer air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shortwave troughing to the north will yield lingering precipitation
chances on Saturday. Conditions dry out in the afternoon areawide
with the exception being in the eastern portions of the forecast
area, closer to the trough axis, where precipitation chances linger.
There will be a temperature gradient across the forecast area with
highs ranging from upper 30s across northern MD and upper 50s in
central VA. Overnight lows dip into the upper 20s and 30s.

Precipitation chances return areawide on Sunday as a low pressure
system tracks over the Ohio River Valley, pushing the associated
frontal boundaries through the forecast area. The associated warm
front lifts through the region Sunday with the cold front pushing
through overnight. High temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s
with lows dipping into the 30s to 40s (20s Alleghenies).

High pressure begins building overhead in the wake of the low
pressure system on Monday. The pressure gradient between the two air
masses will yield continuing gusty winds persisting through Monday
night. Over the Alleghenies, Wind Advisory criteria gusts are
possible and we will continue to monitor that threat as it
approaches. Dry conditions continue Tuesday as high pressure builds
overhead. Winds slowly diminish, although NW winds gust up to 25
knots in the morning across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW winds diminish near sunset. Winds will be light and variable
most of tonight as high pressure moves across the area with
increasing mid and high level clouds.

A wave of low pressure may bring some light rain showers late
tonight through Thursday morning, with the highest chance at
CHO where a PROB30 was added. The main impact will come from
ceilings though, which will lower to MVFR at times Thursday
morning. Conditions may improve Thursday afternoon. A cold front
will cross by Thursday evening, and northerly winds may be
gusty for a time.

A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Friday
night. The most likely time frame for precipitation is Friday
afternoon and evening. BWI, MTN, and MRB likely see sleet and
freezing rain and possibly a little snow to start. Wintry
precipitation is a bit more uncertain for IAD/DCA. CHO is likely
mostly rain. IFR conditions likely develop which last through
Friday night.

Flight restrictions are possible at times as rain moves across the
terminals Saturday morning. Conditions dry out across the terminals
with clouds lingering throughout the day. Winds remain light,
blowing around 5 knots out of the northeast. A low pressure system
tracks to the west with the associated frontal boundaries bringing
rain to the terminals on Sunday. Reduced visibilities and ceilings
are possible during precipitation. Southerly winds on Sunday gust
around 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs were cancelled early as winds have diminished across the
waters below criteria.

As a weak wave of low pressure crosses the waters on Thursday,
southerly winds may briefly approach advisory levels during the
morning. A cold front will push through during the early
evening, with a period of gusty northerly winds in its wake.
Advisories are most probable along the bay, with the wider
waters of the bay potentially approaching 30 kts.

While a wintry mix may impact portions of the waters on Friday into
Friday night, wind fields should likely stay below advisory
criteria. Light winds continue Saturday with transient high
pressure.

Light winds are expected on Saturday. Winds shift to southerly on
Sunday as a low pressure system tracks west of the waters. Winds
near SCA criteria Sunday evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for MDZ501-510.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ535>537.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...ADS/CPB
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/CPB/ADS
MARINE...AVS/CPB/ADS

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion