256
FXUS61 KLWX 290045
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
845 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning.

- 2) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week,
  with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.

- 3) On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night
through Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning.

Combined with overall light winds, areas of dense fog could
settle in late tonight into Thu morning. Fog will likely be
concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge through 14Z, with
areas further west likely seeing overall patchier fog. As a
disturbance transitions offshore, clouds clear in the afternoon,
with warm afternoon temps ranging in the low- to-mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures through the end of
the week, with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.

As the midweek disturbance transitions offshore, another brief
period of upper-level ridging builds over the Mid- Atlantic
between Thu afternoon and Fri. Winds could gust up to 15-20
knots throughout the day on Fri as temps range well above
average with afternoon highs in the mid-70s.

An incoming cold front could bring overnight temps back down
into the 40s between Fri & Sat across the metros, with temps
potentially in the upper 30s over the mountains. Sat will see
increasing cloud cover throughout the day as this front moves
through the region, bringing temps back down to more seasonable
daytime ranges in the 60s. No precipitation is anticipated for
most of the weekend as this front slowly begins to track through
into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night
through Tuesday.

High pressure should keep most, if not all, of the region dry
through the heart of the day Sunday. Rain chances could arrive with
an approaching low pressure system Sunday night and linger through
Tuesday. It is too early to tell how much in coverage these showers
will be each period, but some areas may not see any showers at all.
All in all, rain amounts could be light. Temperatures will be
seasonable Sunday, but then inch their way upwards Monday and
Tuesday as a southerly to southwesterly wind brings in slightly
milder air. Highs Sunday in the middle 60s for most locations, then
climb into the upper 60s to near 70 for both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Additional low clouds and fog could develop late tonight into early
Thursday morning, with higher potential east of the Blue Ridge.
There is still some uncertainty as to where exactly the low
clouds develop, so some TAF sites show borderline IFR/MVFR
conditions between 0800Z-1400Z Thursday depending on this
uncertainty. Generally lowered CIGs/VSBYs with 00Z TAFs given
trends. Fog could occasionally bring visibilities to 1-2SM
during this time.

Visibilities return to VFR between 14Z-16Z Thursday, with
clouds generally clearing by the afternoon. Winds flow southerly
Thursday before shifting northwesterly on Friday, with gusts
potentially up to 15-20 knots throughout the day. Winds diminish
on Saturday before shifting southerly again.

VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Light southerly winds
around 5 knots or so Sunday, becoming light and variable southeast
to northeast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southeasterly winds through this evening, then shifting
southerly overnight. Winds strengthen to borderline SCA thresholds
Friday & Saturday due to increased vertical mixing over near-
shore/narrower waterways, shifting northwesterly by Friday evening.
Winds diminish by Saturday evening. Up until Friday morning, winds
stay within 5-10 knots.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds south
5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming east to northeast 5 to 10 knots
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow Thursday & Friday could push sensitive shorelines close
to flood stage, primarily during the evening tide cycles. A Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued until 11PM this evening for Annapolis
in anticipation of minor flooding that could occur with the high
tide.

Light offshore flow should lower tidal anomalies on Saturday before
winds shift again on Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/SRT
MARINE...KLW/CPB/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion