754
FXUS61 KLWX 020125
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
825 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief wintry mix in the Alleghenies tonight before high
pressure briefly returns to the area Friday. Low pressure
approaches from the south Saturday bringing the potential for
wintry precipitation to portions of the area. High pressure
returns Sunday before another system approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly return from the Ohio River Valley
tonight into Friday morning. At the same time, a lagging piece
of jet energy will lead to another brief period of light
snow/freezing drizzle over the mountains and flurries toward the
metros early Friday morning before the surface high settles
overhead. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for western
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton counties due to
the potential for a glaze to few hundredths of an inch of ice
along with up to an inch or so of snow. The surface high will
allow for the gradient to relax as well as leading to
diminishing winds, clear skies, and cold conditions to finish
out the holiday workweek.

Lows tonight will fall back into the teens and 20s under
clearing skies and decreasing winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The combination of a quick moving jet max and light warm air
advection will yield additional light snow showers/freezing
drizzle over the mountains and flurries off to the east toward
the metros early Friday morning. This is ahead of surface high
pressure which looks to briefly settle overhead Friday afternoon
before sliding off the Delmarva coast Friday evening. Outside
the mountains, a few flurries and increased cloud cover early
will give way to a mix of sun and clouds Friday afternoon.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 20s and low 30s over the
mountains to upper 30s and low to mid 40s east. Lows Friday
night will fall back into the upper teens over the mountains
with low to mid 20s east.

Meanwhile, stalled front to the south will try to lift back to the
north Friday evening into Saturday. A wave of low pressure looks to
traverse this boundary Saturday morning with a secondary wave of low
pressure lifting north and east of the Deep South toward the
VA/NC coast Saturday night into Sunday. With residual high
pressure to the north and east, cold air will be available for
some wintry precipitation to occur across portions of the
forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Main
question is if phasing can occur, which remains highly
uncertain. Right now, the highest confidence for wintry wx
would be along and south of I-66/US-50 and east of the Blue
Ridge mountains. We`ll continue to monitor this threat to see if
the northward trend amongst the guidance continues. If so, some
travel disruptions are possible late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces.
More at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Highs Saturday will push back into the mid to upper 30s with lows
falling back into the low to mid 20s. Wind chills Saturday night
will fall back into the mid teens and low 20s for most with single
digits over the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Hazardous weather is not expected in the long term period at
this time.

High pressure will briefly settle over the region on Sunday before
pushing off the eastern seaboard and anchoring over the north
central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure anchored off-shore will
lead to an increasing southerly flow next week which will help bring
near to above normal temperatures to the region.

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance has multiple upper level
shortwaves pushing through the region next week with clipper lows at
the surface. These systems will have the potential to bring some
precipitation, but the best chance for measurable precip seems to be
with the second system around the Wednesday time period. Based on
the warm trending favored for next week, any precipitation that
occurs is likely to fall as rain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds hvae diminished this evening, and will be AOB 5 knots for
most tonight.

Winds Friday will be light and variable as high pressure moves
overhead. Some light snow flurries are possible over the
corridor early Friday morning as a piece of jet max energy
pushes through. Confidence in this is low at this time with VFR
conditions likely to prevail throughout the day with high
pressure nearby. Winds will be light out of the west at less
than 10 kts.

Sub-VFR conditions will return from the south Saturday into Saturday
night as an area of low pressure works along a nearby stalled
front. Some wintry precipitation is possible with this system
mainly south of the corridor. Model trends have pushed this
system further north so something that will monitor in the
coming days ahead. Highest confidence right now for wintry
precip appears to be down to KCHO and KRIC.

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals on both Sunday and
Monday. Winds will be out of the north on Sunday, and then light and
variable on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected tonight through Saturday with
high pressure nearby. Low pressure will pass south of the waters
Saturday with sub-SCA level conditions still expected.

Wind may near low-end SCA levels in northerly flow on Sunday. Sub-
SCA winds of varying directions are expected on Monday as high
pressure builds over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for MDZ509.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/EST
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/CPB/CJL
MARINE...JMG/CPB/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion