644
FXUS61 KLWX 110804
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast. Some patchy fog in western Maryland
and central Shenandoah Valley could reduce visibility to less
than 1 mile through daybreak today. A couple of showers will
move across western Maryland and parts of northeastern West
Virginia through daybreak as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
  produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible this
  afternoon and evening.

- Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of
which may produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible
this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A weak disturbance moving across the eastern Ohio Valley will
bring a couple of showers to western Maryland and northeastern
West Virginia through daybreak today. Areas that do not
encounter showers could encounter some patchy fog that could
reduce visibility to less than 1 mile.

A weak cold front will some upper level support will initiate
additional showers and some strong to severe thunderstorms
around midday through early this evening. Thunderstorms could
bring damaging winds and lightning as well as heavy downpours.
The best timing on these strong to severe thunderstorms will be
2pm to 8pm. SPC has our region along and south of I-70 in a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. WPC has our region in western Maryland in a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Elsewhere to the Chesapeake Bay is in a Marginal Risk.
Temperatures today will top out in the lower to middle 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions with lower humidity
for Monday and Tuesday. However, the subtropical ridge will build
over the central CONUS Tuesday and it will spread east toward the
Mid-Atlantic for Wednesday through Friday. The center of the ridge
will be off to the west, but there will be enough subsidence for a
return of hot conditions. Heat indices  around 100 degrees with
temperatures well into the 90s are most likely for the valleys and
urban areas. It may even turn out a bit hotter with respect to heat
indices depending on what dewpoints will mix down to around peak
heating each day. It does not appear that it will be as extreme as
it was earlier in the month, but still quite hot and humid for
Wednesday through the end of next week.

With the increased heat and humidity there may be some showers and
thunderstorms. A few of those storms can be strong, but confidence
is low at this time. Perhaps the best chance for storms will be
Friday where low-level moisture may be more prominent in response to
High pressure building over the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals despite some patchy fog
in the Appalachians and central Shenandoah Valley. There is a
risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening that could reduce conditions to MVFR and IFR briefly.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible tonight into Sunday morning in
northeast flow behind a cold front.

VFR conditions are most likely Sunday afternoon through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light flow below 10 kt is expected today, but t-storms this
afternoon and evening may pose a risk of strong winds and
frequent lightning. SMWs may be required this afternoon and
evening. Onshore flow may enhance Sunday into Sunday night
before turning southerly Monday.

A west to southwest flow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
may gust around SCA criteria during this time since there will be a
gradient between high pressure to the south and west vs lower
pressure to the north and east.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels will persist for the next couple of days
with minor coastal flooding becoming increasingly likely Monday
into Tuesday as southerly flow strengthens.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJL/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/KLW
MARINE...BJL/LFR/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion