365
FXUS61 KLWX 091416
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze and frost headlines have expired. Low clouds east of I-95
are broken in nature and shouldn`t impede the temperature
forecast significantly. Will assess the need for a Frost
Advisory tonight, especially in the central Shenandoah Valley.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the
week, along with a warming trend in temperatures.
- 2) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions are expected through the
remainder of the week, along with a warming trend in
temperatures.
High pressure will shift off the New England coastline today.
As the high moves offshore, winds will gain more of a southerly
component, allowing warmer air to advect into the region from
the south. A warming trend in temperature will ensue as a
result, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s today,
and then the 70s on Friday. With high pressure in control,
continued dry conditions are expected, although some low clouds
may be possible during the morning hours both today and
tomorrow.
A weakening cold front will move through the area Friday night,
potentially leading to a few showers in the Alleghenies.
Otherwise, continued dry conditions are expected through Friday
night and Saturday. Winds will shift to out of the northwest
behind the front as high pressure builds to our north. Mostly
sunny skies are forecast for Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s
to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions
are expected early next week.
Surface high pressure centered north of the region on Sunday is
expected to persist into Monday, allowing for generally dry
conditions in the area as upper level ridging builds over the East
Coast. Gradual warming is expected on Saturday and Sunday after a
small cold front knocks temperatures a few degrees on Saturday, with
highs in the 60s and upper 70s through the weekend. A much more
dramatic uptick in temperatures is currently expected to occur by
Monday, with highs in the mid-80s throughout the region and
approaching even higher temperatures on Tuesday and going into next
Wednesday. Deterministic model spread still differs somewhat on
whether these highs will potentially break records, but ensembles
overall agree on a dramatic warming trend at the start of next week.
Precipitation chances return on Tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the Great Lakes region, and a low pressure system may begin to
impact the region by midweek with increased chances for
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR clouds have been patchy in nature this morning, with
ceilings closer to the Chesapeake Bay (BWI/MTN). These clouds
should scatter or lift by the midday hours. After that, VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the day. Winds
today will generally be out of the southeast. MVFR, or
potentially even IFR ceilings may be possible to the east of the
Blue Ridge again tonight. Any low clouds should once again
break up by around noon on Friday. VFR conditions are then
expected through Saturday. Winds will be out of the south on
Friday, and then turn to out of the northwest on Saturday behind
a weak cold frontal passage.
VFR conditions are expected across the terminals on Sunday and
Monday as high pressure builds over the region. On Sunday,
southeast winds blow 5-10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots in the
afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly for Monday with wind
gusts around 15-20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level south to southeasterly winds are expected over the
waters today. Winds could approach low end SCA levels for a
time in southerly flow late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Winds shift to out of the north to northwest on
Saturday as a weak cold front moves over the waters.
Northerly winds Saturday night shift southeasterly by Sunday evening
as high pressure passes to the north. Winds will be around 5-10
knots on Sunday, with an uptick in wind gusts expected by
Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories may be needed by this
time as wind gusts are forecasted to be around 15-20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be relatively light out of the south to southeast
today, with RHs dropping back into the upper 20s and 30s. RHs
will be locally higher close to Chesapeake Bay and the Tidal
Potomac. RHs recover tonight to around 90-100 percent to the
east of the Blue Ridge, and 60-80 percent to the west of the
Blue Ridge. Winds will be a touch stronger on Friday out of the
south, and could gust to around 20-25 mph on the higher ridges.
Conditions will be dry once again, with min RH values in the 20s
to the west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 20s and 30s to the east
of the Blue Ridge.
Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies Friday
night as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is
expected over the next several days. Conditions appear as
though they will remain warm and dry into next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15,
2026 timeframe:
A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.
***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960)! 63F (2014)!
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960)! 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945)+! 67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024)+! 64F (2014)
***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941)! 65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967)! 62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941)! 65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024)! 68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960)+! 61F (2023)+!
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/KJP/SRT
MARINE...KJP/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion