246
FXUS61 KLWX 231337
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
937 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed areas west of the Blue Ridge from the fire wx SPS given
rainfall overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) An elevated fire danger threat for portions of the area
 Monday with gusty northwest winds. Cooler temperatures Tuesday
 and Wednesday.

-3) Rain chances return with a cold front Thursday and Friday.
Canadian high pressure builds over the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An elevated fire danger threat for portions of
the area Monday with gusty northwest winds. Cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Removed areas west of Blue Ridge from fire SPS given rainfall of
a tenth to locally half an inch overnight. Previous discussion
follows...

Gusty post frontal west to northwest flow behind a departing
strong cold front that will take over Monday as the front sinks
south. Winds will gust between 25 to 35 mph with locally higher
gusts along the ridges. Cool air advection will also ensue with
a 20 to 30 degree departure in high temperatures compared to
Sunday. Highs Monday will still be a couple degrees above normal
in the 50s and low 60s (40s mountains). Expect minimum relative
humidity values to fall into the 25 to 40 percent range across
the region. The lowest values of note will be over central VA
where an elevated risk of wildfire spread (potentially near Red
Flag conditions) may be observed. This is due to ongoing
drought, limited rainfall with the front, gusty winds, and low
relative humidity values (see fire discussion for more details).

Continued dry conditions are expected Monday night, with winds
gradually decreasing, and temperatures dropping back into the 20s
and lower 30s. High pressure builds overhead on Tuesday, leading to
light winds, mostly sunny skies, and below normal temperatures.
Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s
for most. Lows Tuesday night fall back into the low to mid 30s.

High pressure slides offshore Wednesday yielding temps back into the
50s and 60s. Look for a bit more cloud cover as a warm
front/shortwave trough sit nearby. Any precip chances hold off until
late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances return with a cold front Thursday
and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds over the region this
weekend.

Looking at dry conditions continuing for most through at least
Thursday. Temperatures will moderate during this time with a warm
front nearby and a subtle shortwave pulsing through. These two
features may touch off some light rain showers over the mountains
and far northern portions of the forecast area. Confidence in this
still remains low given ample dry air leftover in the low levels
with high pressure close enough offshore.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure will work across the St. Lawrence
Valley toward the Canadian Maritimes Friday. This will shove a cold
front southward into the region. The front will be slow to cross
Friday due to the placement of the low up over eastern Canada and an
incumbent deepening trough/low ejecting east from Mid-South. The
front will sag southward as a cold front Friday evening into Friday
night while becoming parallel to the upper level flow.

With that said, some model spread remains per the latest 00z
guidance in regards to timing, placement of surface features,
temperatures, and rain amounts late week. Thus the position of this
potentially wavering frontal zone may have some impacts on
temperatures Thursday and Friday, though they should be near or
above normal. Rain chances will peak Thursday night into Friday,
with the frontal zone likely south of the area by Saturday morning.
Frontal moisture should depart before it becomes cold enough to
snow, except perhaps in the Alleghenies.

Canadian high pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley
Saturday before shifting overhead Saturday night into Sunday. This
will lead to below normal temperatures Saturday with a slight
moderation Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will shift out of the northwest and north today behind a
cold front with VFR conditions. Gusts to around 25-30 knots
will be possible through this afternoon.

VFR conditions persist tonight through Tuesday, with winds
gradually decreasing tonight, and then eventually becoming very
light to calm on Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. VFR
conditions are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night as high
pressure departs.

VFR conditions are expected with high pressure through Thursday
morning. southerly winds may gust to around 20 kts on Thursday as a
low pressure system passes well to the north. A cold front may bring
sub-VFR ceilings and rain chances Thursday night into Friday.
Northwesterly winds may turn gusty behind the front on Friday. No
aviation hazards this weekend with Canadian high pressure building
overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA gusts will develop and continue through today into tonight.
Lighter winds are expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds
overhead.

Southwest winds may begin to increase Wednesday and Wednesday
night high pressure departs. However, advisory level winds may
hold off until Thursday as a low pressure system passes well
north of the area. The associated cold front will cross the area
Friday, with advisories potentially needed in the northwest
flow in its wake. No marine hazards this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase out of the northwest behind a cold front
today. Gusts to around 30 mph appear likely through much of the
day today, as relative humidity values drop into the 30s, and
potentially even upper 20s in spots. Temperatures today are
forecast to be considerably cooler, with highs in the 50s and
lower 60s for most (40s mountains). Another Special Weather
Statement for elevated fire weather danger may need to be
considered for portions of the forecast area today, with
central Virginia likely experiencing the worst fire weather
conditions.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/CPB/EST
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/EST
MARINE...KLW/CPB/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion