908
FXUS61 KLWX 080134
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added the tidal Choptank River to the Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiescent weather expected through the end of the week.

- 2) Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
     weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiescent weather expected through the end of
the week.

Very few if any clouds were evident as of mid evening thanks to
sprawling high pressure over the area. Winds will become light
over land tonight. Temperatures tonight will be milder than
recent nights given light south winds.

A dry cold front will approach from the west late tonight, then
cross the region early Thursday morning. Winds will shift to the
west and northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
perhaps occasional/peak gusts near 30 mph near higher terrain.
Despite the passage of the front, downsloping winds likely
pushing temperatures well into the 70s to near 80 for most.

Seasonable (albeit slightly cooler) temperatures and dry
conditions will then persist under high pressure Friday through
Friday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
weekend.

As of today, the National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories
on Tropical Storm Isaias down in the Bay of Campeche. This Tropical
cyclone will need to be monitored closely in the coming days in
regards to potential impacts to our region late this weekend. There
remains a great deal of uncertainty, owing to a complex upper-level
pattern ahead of it. A cutoff low over the southern Plains and an
area of high pressure over Florida will act as the primary steering
mechanisms in the coming days. The big questions are going to be...
where does it go, and how fast does it get there? A track directly
over our area is highly uncertain at this time. However, it does
seem likely to track somewhere up into the MS River Valley and
then eventually up towards the Great Lakes/OH Valley as it
transitions into a non-tropical low.

At present, the most likely impacts to our region will be rain.
However, there isn`t a great concern for flooding at this time, as
the system should be progressive and much of the region could use a
good soaking rain to help with drought relief. That being said, this
system is still several days out, so we will be monitoring any
rainfall trends closely as the time draws closer. There is also a
non-zero, but very small, chance that some severe weather could
occur as a result of the remnants of Isaias. However, again, this
will greatly depend on how the upper-level pattern evolves and
interacts with Isaias as it moves into our region. The main
threat, if it materializes, would be the non-zero threat of a
quick tornado on Sunday afternoon/evening (mainly near S MD).

All of this to say, we just simply don`t know if Isaias will bring
any significant impacts our way. However, as is the case with any
tropical cyclone, it will be important to stay tuned to the forecast
over the next few days. Monitor hurricanes.gov for details on
Isaias.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main wx change next 24 hrs is wind shift Thu morning behind a
dry cold frontal passage. Otherwise, P6SM SKC through 21Z Fri.
Then, increasing high clouds Fri night.

VFR conditions are expected Saturday as high pressure remains
dominant over the region. Winds will be out of the S to SE on
Saturday at 5 to 10 knots.

More uncertainty going into Sunday, but sub-VFR conditions are
possible if we do manage to get any rain associated with the area of
low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight for the main
channel of the Chesapeake Bay up to Pooles Island, the tidal
Choptank and Tangier Sound, and the lower tidal Potomac River as
south to southwest winds gust to around 20 kts. Winds Thursday
shift to the west and northwest with SCA gusts expected over the
upper tidal Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay/Baltimore Harbor.
Winds drop below SCA by late Thu afternoon through Friday.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on Saturday as high
pressure remains dominant over the region. However, by Saturday
evening, we could see a brief burst of southerly channeling winds
that come close to criteria. Confidence is low at this time.

Winds will be on the increase on Sunday ahead of the remnants of
Isaias, with high-end SCA conditions possible. SCAs seem likely for
much of the day and into Sunday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels may increase during the second half of the weekend
depending on the exact direction and strength of the winds as
the remnants of Isaias approach.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530-
     535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ531.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ532-533-
     537-541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion