955
FXUS61 KLWX 040757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Areas of light to moderate drizzle extends from the central
Shenandoah Valley to Northeast Maryland. An area of light steady
rain is moving out of southwest Virginia and should approach the
Virginia Piedmont a little before daybreak with additional areas
of rain expected to spread north and eastward this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A frontal system nearby will maintain rain chances today
  with below average temperatures.

- 2) Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to the west of
  the Blue Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal system nearby will maintain rain
chances today with below average temperatures.

A mid-level disturbance will pivot from the eastern Ohio Valley
toward the mid-Atlantic region today. While there are broad
patches of light to moderate drizzle extending from the central
Shenandoah Valley to Northeast Maryland, a light steadier rain
is developing in southwestern Virginia just ahead of the mid-
level disturbance. Much of this light rain should be along and
east of I-81 and remain mostly along and south of I-66 through
midday today. A persistent northeast wind should keep
temperatures on the cool side widespread today into tonight.
Highs will be mainly in the 60s. Any rain chances should come to
an end around Sunday evening. Overnight conditions should be
similar to last night with lows again in the 50s.

As a deep upper trough tracks across far eastern Canada, a more
potent cold front sweeps through the northeastern U.S. on
Monday. This will favor increasing sunshine, but also a large
uptick in northwesterly winds. Afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25
mph are possible, but with highs returning to the upper 60s to
mid 70s (upper 50s to 60s in the mountains).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to
the west of the Blue Ridge early next week.

A strong area of high pressure will build over the area next
week, leading to an extended period of dry conditions. As a cooler
airmass works in and high pressure builds overhead, frost and
freezing temperatures may be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge
both Monday night and Tuesday night. We`ll start to see slightly
warmer air build in from the south and west later in the week. High
temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to be in the 60s
(upper 50s/low 60s mountains) on Tuesday, upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday (60s mountains), and mid 70s (mid-upper 60s mountains) on
Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures will gradually moderate
from the 30s/40s early in the week, to the upper 40s/low 50s later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower ceilings and visibility through mid-morning as drizzle,
patchy fog, and pockets of light rain encompass much of the
eastern two-thirds of the region. MVFR to IFR conditions would
be the flavor.

Rain likely continues through the first half of today before a
drying trend before dark. Low ceilings likely persist into
tonight given persistent northeasterly flow. However, VFR
conditions return for Monday behind a strong cold front. Gusts
up to 20 to 25 knots are possible during the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the north on Tuesday, and then
south on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Occasional gusts around 18-20 knots possible over the central
Chesapeake Bay today with prevailing winds turning north to
northeasterly given the CAD wedge in place. The true ramp up in
wind fields comes for the second half of Monday behind a cold
front. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed midday
Monday through the night.

Sub-SCA level northerly winds are expected on Tuesday. Wind shift
to out of the south on Wednesday, and are expected to remain sub-SCA
in nature.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be on the decrease as high pressure builds on
the northwest side of the front that continues to push south.

Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible, particularly at
the more sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KLW/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion