289
FXUS61 KLWX 210224
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
924 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models have handled this evening`s cold frontal passage poorly
as it works eastward more slowly than projected and seems to be
unevenly mixing out the low level stability. As a result, patchy
dense fog has formed over central and northeastern Maryland. To
the south and west of the front, very deep mixing has been
realized, resulting in warmer, drier, and windier conditions.
The Wind Advisory may need to be extended for some of the
ridges, but in net, the forecast should "catch up to itself"
over the next several hours as the lower elevation winds weaken
and the fog dissipates.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area
 Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts
of the area Sunday into Monday.

No notable changes were observed with the 12Z guidance with
respect to the low pressure fcst to develop off the NC coast
Sunday with the GFS remaining on its world and the Canadian and
ECMWF models showing similar scenarios.

While the Canadian and ECMWF models trended a little closer to
the coast with the position of the low center, they still
remain a good distance from Washington DC, roughly 300 nm, so
that the sweet spot of this storm remains far east from our
area.

Precip is expected to develop across the area Sunday morning on
the north side of developing sfc low pressure to the southeast. It
should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as low-
levels will be too warm. In addition, the precip intensity
initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have
a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas
or at high elevations. Most of the day Sunday should be like
that with snow falling at temperatures around 34 at light
intensity.

Sunday night, upper level trough will be digging across the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic states and provide strong lift to
generate widespread light to moderate snow. The best low-level
and upper level forcing will be focused across the area of
northern central and northeast MD along an inverted-trof axis.
This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with
respect to QPF according to the latest 12Z EPS ensembles with
QPF amounts generally around half inch liquid equivalent. While
snow ratios will likely lower than normal, potential banding may
offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures. The snow
will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in
intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW
winds will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere,
light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight
from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope
flow will continue to generate snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front has been slower to push east this evening, and on top
of that, the warm front has dropped back to the southwest. This
has resulted in some fog near BWI and MTN as well as a return to
NE winds. Still looks like the wind shift to the west should
occur during the late evening, clearing out any fog. Some gusts
around 20 kt are possible, though there is still some
uncertainty with wind gust magnitude. As long as the deep mixing
doesn`t occur, some LLWS is possible due to the low level
stability and strong westerly winds around 35-40 kt already in
place at 2000 ft.

VFR conditions with light west to northwest winds expected
Saturday.

Precip expected to arrive early Sunday in the form of rain
initially before transitioning to snow later in the day. Main
window of accumulating snow looks to be Sunday evening with
passage of upper low. Expect flight restrictions Sunday night
due to snow. Gusty winds up to 30 kt Monday on the backside of
the storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front has been slow to reach the waters, but still
potential for a few hours of SCA conditions late this evening
until 1 AM or so, so the advisory remains in effect for the
southern half of the waters. Winds become light Saturday. SCA
conditions develop again Sunday due to tightening pressure
gradient with gales conditions likely for the open waters Sunday
night, potentially lasting through Monday night. SCA conditions
then persist through Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are uncertain with potential coastal storm Sunday into
Monday given divergent model solutions on the track/strength.
While some tidal flooding can`t be ruled out, a more probable
outcome is that strong north winds could result in dropping
tide levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for MDZ004>006-008-011-503-505-507-508.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ509-510.
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for VAZ505.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ503.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ503.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ501>506.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for ANZ530.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ532>537-
     540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion