264
FXUS61 KLWX 060859
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly return over the weekend before a
strong cold front tracks across the region Sunday evening.
Canadian high pressure will build in early next week while a
potential wave of low pressure passes by to the south. Another
clipper-like system tracks across the area by the middle of
next week. A secondary cold front moves through by Thursday
before high pressure slowly approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The 08Z/3 AM surface analysis places a cold front across the
Gulf Stream back across the Florida Panhandle. Off to the west,
a series of frontal systems loom over the Upper Midwest.
Sandwiched in between these features is a weak area of high
pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak pressure gradients
have allowed winds to go mainly calm.

Where aircraft soundings are available early this morning, low-
level profiles remain saturated to around 850-mb. With
temperatures near to below freezing in this column, areas of
freezing drizzle have persisted around the D.C. and Baltimore
metros. Any snow threat has ended given the degree of dry air
above 850-mb where ice crystal growth would be required. Given
the freezing drizzle threat, opted to extend the Winter Weather
Advisories until 7 AM mainly along and east of U.S. 15.
Additionally, a similar setup is being observed over Garrett and
western Grant counties. As such, Winter Weather Advisories are
also in place through 7 AM this morning.

Expect temperatures to hold steady in the upper 20s to low 30s
this morning, all underneath a thick area of low stratus. Given
it is only 2 weeks until the Winter Solstice, solar insolation
angles are fairly low this time of year. Thus, it may take until
the lunch hour to mix out these low clouds. A low-amplitude
shortwave races across the region this afternoon/evening. This
should help shift the pattern allowing for some late day
sunshine over portions of the area. Forecast high temperatures
will rise into the low/mid 40s, with upper 20s to 30s across the
mountains.

While much of the region stays dry as this shortwave passes by,
some upslope aided showers are possible across portions of the
Alleghenies. Thermal profiles would support a mixed wintry
precipitation event. However, given limited moisture, any
impacts should be minimal. Heading into the night, some clouds
linger overhead with lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An Arctic boundary currently analyzed over the upper Great
Lakes back across the northern Rockies looms large toward the
end of the weekend. This ushers in another pattern shift heading
into the upcoming work week. However, Sunday largely brings
tranquil weather to the region. Weak high pressure remains
nearby with high temperatures remaining fairly close to today`s
readings. The forecast of low/mid 40s is around 4 to 8 degrees
below climatology for early December standards.

The atmosphere gradually moistens ahead of the next frontal
system. This will support an increase in cloud cover throughout
the day. Any chances of precipitation are locked over the
Alleghenies which is to be expected given very low Froude number
(018-503>506-508>510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ050-
     051-053>057-502-506-526-527.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ501.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion