805
FXUS61 KLWX 162010
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
410 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the majority of the
forecast area through 8 PM this evening. A Freeze Watch was
issued for location to the west of the Blue Ridge for Saturday
night into early Sunday morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe Thunderstorms are possible this evening as a strong
cold front moves through.
- 2) Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible this
weekend.
- 3) Nor`easter to develop off the Carolina coast late in the
weekend lingers much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this evening
as a strong cold front moves through.
Skies remain mostly sunny across the majority of the forecast
area, which has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to
mid 80s. Dewpoints have also risen into the 60s to near 70
within southerly flow. This unseasonably warm and humid airmass
coupled with cooling temperatures aloft are allowing instability
to build over the area. Thunderstorms are in the process of
forming along a strong cold front which is just starting to move
into western MD and the WV Panhandle. The coverage of storms is
expected to gradually increase as the front moves into an
environment further east characterized by slightly higher
instability, with the greatest coverage of storms expected to
the east of the Blue Ridge this evening where the highest
dewpoints (upper 60s to near 70) are located.
Confidence in the timing of the storms is very high since
they`re forming directly along the front. The storms are located
over Western MD and the WV Panhandle currently, should reach the
Blue Ridge by around 5-6 PM, impact the I-95 corridor between 6
and 8 PM, and then Southern MD shortly thereafter.
In terms of hazards, damaging winds appears to be the primary
threat, with ample flow in place just off the surface. With
around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear, some supercellular
or bowing structures could be possible, which could locally
enhance the threat for damaging winds. However, relatively weak
low-level lapse rates could be a limiting factor for damaging
winds. As thunderstorm coverage increases to the east of the
Blue Ridge, we`ll also be losing daytime heating, which will
only make the low-level lapse rates even poorer. While the
environment doesn`t appear to be the most favorable for
tornadoes, a brief tornado or two can`t be completely ruled
out. The threat for severe thunderstorms will immediately come
to an end once the front moves through, with winds picking up
out of the northwest behind the front. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for the majority of the forecast are
through 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible
this weekend.
Strong cold advection will ensue within northwesterly flow
behind the cold front tonight through the day tomorrow. Upslope
showers in the Alleghenies may even end as a few flakes of snow
late tonight, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures are
forecast to drop into the 40s by daybreak tomorrow (mid- upper
30s mountains). A few showers could linger from Central Virginia
to Southern Maryland tomorrow morning, but gradual clearing is
expected tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough axis progresses
to our east and large scale subsidence starts to increase.
Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 50s
(40s mountains).
High pressure will gradually build in from the west tomorrow
night as a nor`easter simultaneously starts to develop off the
Carolina coastline. The main question tomorrow night is which
locations will decouple. The setup for radiational cooling will
be nearly ideal in locations that go calm, with clear skies
expected and dewpoints in the 20s. Temperatures will likely
plummet into the 20s and lower 30s where winds go calm.
Confidence is currently the highest for winds going calm to the
west of the Blue Ridge, with greater uncertainty with respect to
the winds further east as the nor`easter develops offshore. A
Freeze Watch has been issued to the west of the Blue Ridge,
where confidence is highest for sub-freezing temperatures. Some
frost or sub-freezing temperatures can`t be ruled out further
east, either. Forecast confidence decreases further moving into
Sunday. Forecast models show considerable spread with respect
to the location of the aforementioned nor`easter during that
time period. Some solutions keep the system offshore, while
others have it retrograding further westward, which could lead
to impacts locally.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Nor`easter to develop off the Carolina coast late
in the weekend lingers much of next week.
Part of the upper trough that swings through tonight into
Saturday will cutoff along the front stalling to the south later
this weekend. This result in the development of a nor`easter
off the Carolina coast. This system then meanders offshore/near
the coast, but guidance varies widely on its placement and
strength. Since it will be cut off from the main steering flow,
it could persist much of next week. Northeast breezes and
occasional rain chances are possible, with the highest chances
further east.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions have improved back to VFR. Winds will gust to around
15-25 knots out of the south to southwest this afternoon. A cold
front will approach from the northwest later this afternoon into
this evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along
the front, and will move through the terminals from west to east
over the next several hours, potentially leading to a brief
period of restrictions. Winds shift to out of the northwest and
pick up behind the front this evening. North to northwesterly
winds will then gust to around 20 to 30 knots through the day
tomorrow. Other then a potential brief period of MVFR ceilings
at CHO late tonight, VFR conditions are expected tonight through
this weekend. Winds this weekend will be out of the north to
northeast as a coastal low develops offshore.
Some rain or sub-VFR could develop Mon-Tue with a nor`easter lurking
offshore, especially for areas further east. NE winds could become
breezy at times depending on how close the system gets.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through the
afternoon in southerly flow. A line of thunderstorms is
expected to form along an approaching cold front this afternoon
and then move over the waters this evening. SMWs may be needed
as thunderstorms move over the waters this evening. Winds then
shift to out of the northwest behind the front tonight, with SCA
gusts continuing. Gale Warnings go into effect to the south of
the Bay Bridge tomorrow and continue tomorrow night. SCAs remain
in effect elsewhere through tomorrow night. After that,
attention turns to a nor`easter that is forecast to develop
offshore. SCA conditions likely continue through the day Sunday
in northeasterly flow, but forecast uncertainty during that time
period remains high.
NE winds around a nor`easter to the south may remain gusty much of
next week. In fact, gales are possible at times over the
wider/southern waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will remain elevated within southerly flow this
afternoon into this evening. Annapolis remain under a Coastal
Flood Advisory through the tide cycle this evening.
Water levels are forecast to rapidly decrease within
northwesterly flow behind a strong cold front tonight into
Saturday. Water levels may rapidly rise again on Sunday as a
coastal low develops offshore and winds turn to more out of the
northeast.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for MDZ003-501-502-509-510.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-531-
538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534-
537-543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ532>534-537-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion