386
FXUS61 KLWX 061919
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
319 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for western Maryland,
the eastern West Virginia Panhandle, and a small portion of
northern Virginia. This watch is in effect until 8pm this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms could bring damaging
winds and large hail to these areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm this
  evening for western Maryland, eastern West Virginia Panhandle,
  and parts of northern Virginia.

- 2) Dry and warm late Sunday and into Monday.

- 3) Hot and humid conditions for the second half of the week
  with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until
8pm this evening for western Maryland, eastern West Virginia
Panhandle, and parts of northern Virginia.

A mid-level trough of low pressure, moving out of the eastern
Ohio Valley, will ignite showers and thunderstorms across our
northern third of our region, mainly along and north of I-66. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm this evening
for western and central Maryland, northeastern West Virginia
including the eastern Panhandle, and far northern Virginia. A
fast- moving squall line of heavy showers and severe
thunderstorms are currently racing east- southeastward across
southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. Frequent
lightning, wind gusts over 55 mph, and large hail are occurring
in this activity. A tornado can`t be ruled out within this
squall line. This activity will reach Garrett County in Maryland
between 315pm and 330pm and should continue onward toward the
east- southeast over the next hour or two. The added heat,
temperatures reaching upper 80s to middle 90s, and humidity with
dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 60s will aid in
this convection continuing on strong. CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg
and MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg so instability isn`t overly high.
Wind shear is 20-30 kts. Much of the convection will impact
western and central Maryland and most of northeastern West
Virginia, including the eastern Panhandle. Parts of northern
Virginia could also feel the impact of damaging winds and hail
between 4pm and 7pm. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms
could develop ahead of the squall line or near the periphery and
some could even make it close to the northwestern suburbs of
Baltimore City. Low confidence on this. The main threats will
be damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, large hail, downpours, and
lightning. A cold front at the surface will follow this
evening`s convection later this evening and overnight. It looks
as if the front will slow its forward movement on the south and
southwest flank of it. Thus, a few lingering showers and a
thunderstorm could exist anywhere in our northern half of the
region into the 1am to 2am timeframe. Some isolated convection
could linger or refire during the Sunday morning or midday hours
due to this possible stalled front.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warm late Sunday and into Monday.

A front will slide to the south and southwest, stalling as it
moves. Limited shower activity expected. As a matter of fact,
most places north and east of the Virginia Piedmont will be dry
and remaining warm. Highs in the middle 80s to near 90 on
Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night will likely fall into the
60s as a cold front presses further south.

Monday will be dry with high pressure building into the region.
Highs in the lower to middle 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid conditions for the second half of the
week with daily thunderstorm chances.

After the relatively lower temperatures Monday and Tuesday, heat
will begin to build Wednesday as the surface high moves off the
coast. Ensemble temperature plots suggest Thursday through Saturday
will be the hottest days with temperatures potentially well into the
90s. The heat index may rise above 100 degrees in some areas as dew
points will be higher these days compared to some of our recent hot
days.

The higher theta-e airmass will arrive on Wednesday as well. Details
are still a little uncertain with how strong mid/upper level ridging
will be, and when exactly shortwaves may approach from the
northwest. In the end, there is some shower and thunderstorm
potential each day Wednesday through Saturday, even if it is
ultimately terrain-driven and limited in coverage. There may be some
severe weather risk given the heat and humidity, although it may be
isolated due to relatively weak shear (assuming a stronger trough
does not unfold). It`s possible a cold front and stronger jet streak
could approach at some point next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely at the TAF sites of CHO and maybe IAD
and DCA. This would depend on the convection this afternoon not
making it these sites. Otherwise, MRB could encounter a period
up to an hour of IFR or LIFR should the squall line in
southwest PA make its way to the terminal or additional
convection develops between 4pm and 7pm. BWI and MTN could get
impacted between 6pm and 9pm but confidence is low. Winds
southwest to west 5 to 10 knots, except brief gusts 30 to 40
knots in any strong thunderstorms near MRB and perhaps BWI and
MTN. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday. Any isolated
heavy showers around IAD, DCA or CHO on Sunday could bring brief
MVFR conditions and gusts over 30 knots.

VFR is expected to prevail Monday into Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evenings of
Wednesday and Thursday. Winds likely remain 10 kt or less out of the
south or west.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect for the waters through 8pm. Any
convection that reaches the northern and central Chesapeake Bay
late this afternoon and evening could bring about SMWs or MWSs
depending on the duration. Winds could gust over 35 knots in
strong thunderstorms. MWSs may be warranted in the central and
southern Chesapeake Bay and much of the Potomac waters on Sunday
should any convection linger near the surface front.

As high pressure moves off the coast, southerly flow will prevail
Monday through Thursday. Wednesday may have the highest chance
for winds near advisory criteria. However, channeling events
could bring marginal advisory conditions each evening/night as
well.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion