101
FXUS61 KLWX 070857
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
457 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tropical Depression 9 has become Tropical Storm Isaias.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiescent weather expected through the end of the week.

- 2) Increasing rain potential Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiescent weather expected through the end of
the week.

High pressure moves offshore today turning the winds out of the
south. This will yield a milder day with temps climbing back
into the 70s. Temps warm up to near 80 Thu before the passage
of another dry cold front. Temps cool off slightly for the end
of the week as weak high pressure of Canadian origin builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased rain potential late this weekend into
early next week.

The main feature to watch in the extended portion of the forecast
will be Tropical Storm Isaias. Key steering features will be a
ridge in the western Atlantic, a trough/closed low over Texas,
and eventually a trough ejecting from the northern Rockies. The
NHC forecast has the remnants of this system moving into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys over the weekend, although there
still remains considerable uncertainty on the track and
especially forward speed of the system. Even despite this
westward position of the cyclone, moisture from both the Gulf of
America and Atlantic will likely be transported northward into
the Mid Atlantic. Rain will become increasingly likely Sun,
although as mentioned, this timing could vary a bit. The remnant
low could then move eastward, potentially extending rain
chances into Monday. At this juncture, the rain will be the main
impact from this system, but we will continue to monitor any
changing trends.

It will be important to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few
days, and monitor hurricanes.gov for updated details on Tropical
Storm Isaias.

Daytime temperatures will likely be seasonal through the weekend and
early next week but will take a dip when rain is the most
widespread. Meanwhile overnight lows will be mild thanks to
increasing clouds and dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the end of the week. Winds
turn S`ly today as high pressure shifts offshore. A dry cold
front Thu will cause another wind shift to the west and
NW into Fri.

VFR conditions with light south to southeast winds are expected
Saturday. Rain and low ceilings are possible late Saturday night
into Sunday as tropical moisture is drawn northward into the
area from the Gulf of America.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to strengthen today out of the south and
could flirt with marginal SCA conditions this evening. Currently
favoring an MWS given the short duration and marginal nature. A
dry frontal passage Thu could bring another period of marginal
SCA conditions Thu afternoon into Thu night.

Winds will become southeasterly Sat into Sat night, likely
remaining below SCA levels. Winds could increase on Sun,
depending on the evolution of the weather pattern ahead of a
remnant tropical system (currently Tropical Storm Isaias) which
will likely be moving into the Tennessee or Ohio Valleys.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion