641
FXUS61 KLWX 121432
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1032 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

2) After another cool down, above average temperatures return
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

A trough diving southeast from central Canada will drive a
surface low across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Gusty southerly
winds will battle increasing clouds to push temperatures into
the 70s. A lead vort max may result in an initial round of
showers moving across the area during the daytime. It`s
uncertain how far east these will make it with residual dry air
in place. Either way, very little instability will be available
for this first round, even though the showers could be reaching
areas east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. A second
round of convection is expected to develop west of the
Appalachian crest closer to the main trough axis and surface
cold front. While shear will be sufficient for organization,
instability will be lacking. Most models show this activity
crossing the mountains during the late afternoon, then affecting
areas east of the Blue Ridge during the evening. While some
stronger thunderstorms could occur across western areas, a
gradual diminishing trend is expected with eastward extent. SPC
has maintained a Marginal/Level 1 Risk for western portions of
the area. The main threat will be strong to locally damaging
winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...After another cool down, above average
temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.

The earlier mid-week trough is expected to close off in the
vicinity of the upper Mid-Atlantic to southern New England on
Thursday. Not only will this keep temperatures cooler with some
enhanced cloud cover, scattered mountain showers look possible
during the daytime hours.

Surface high pressure builds over the region on Friday.
Temperatures start to creep back up to the low 70s on Friday and
then quickly rise as upper level ridging builds and warm air
from southwest CONUS moves into the region. Highs for Saturday
and Sunday are forecasted to broadly range in the 80s, and early
temperature outlooks for Monday show highs reaching the 90s as
persistent upper level ridging continues. There are some hints a
shortwave trough may bring shower and thunderstorm potential at
some point between Saturday and Sunday, although model spread in
this feature remains large. Drier air moves into the region at
the start of next week as upper level ridging builds,
minimizing additional rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds
becoming south or southeast in the afternoon. Some gustiness may
develop overnight at times, with gusts to 25 kt more common on
Wednesday. There may be multiple rounds of showers and embedded
thunderstorms, one during midday to afternoon, and the second
during the evening. Any thunderstorms could contain gusty
outflow, especially at MRB. The cold front tracks through
Wednesday night, which brings an end to any showers and shifts
winds to the northwest.

An upper level low will be nearby on Thursday into Friday which
will likely add stratocumulus, with a worst case being MVFR
ceilings at times. Northwesterly winds will also gust to 25 kt.

A shortwave trough potentially brings some scattered showers in
the Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe, but prevailing VFR
conditions are otherwise expected otherwise. Light winds Friday
night shift southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will take hold this afternoon, increasing
tonight as high pressure departs. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will
be commonplace across a majority of the waters, especially by
Wednesday. While wind gust forecasts are tricky on the interior
waterways during the overnight, have eventually all waters
entering a Small Craft Advisory tonight. The current advisory
continues through 6 PM Wednesday, although it will likely need
to be extended into the evening. Some late afternoon to evening
thunderstorms. could impact the waters as the cold front
approaches from the west. Any stronger storm may require Special
Marine Warnings.

Winds shift to west-northwesterly early Thursday behind the cold
front. Winds will increase through the day, and advisories will
likely be needed. SCA conditions likely continue through Friday
afternoon. Winds fall below SCA criteria by Friday evening.
Northwest winds shift southerly by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Expect a gradual uptick in water levels ahead of a mid-week
low pressure system. The influence of increasing southerlies
will carry the tidal forecast to action stage at several
locations during times of high tide. The Stevens ensemble shows
the potential for Minor tidal flooding by early Thursday at
Annapolis. Expect anomalies to fall thereafter as winds shift
to northwesterly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ530-535>539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ531>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion