123
FXUS61 KLWX 281403
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed fog along/east of I-95 this morning as the cloud bank
did not reach that far east. Made minor changes to aviation and
marine; see appropriate sections below for additional details.
Otherwise, no major changes made to the forecast this morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low clouds and fog through Thursday morning.
- 2) Well above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday
afternoons, then more seasonable Saturday.
- 3) On-and-off rain showers are possible beginning Sunday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low clouds and fog through Thursday morning.
Onshore flow developing around high pressure to the north and
east, as well as a weak warm front slowly lifting across the
Mid-Atlantic, will set the stage for increasing low-level
moisture. This results in the development of low clouds and fog
for much of the area, persisting into Thursday morning.
For today, low clouds likely linger through midday into early
afternoon closer to the eastern (upslope) areas between the Blue
Ridge/Catoctin Mountains and US-15.
Warm advection mid-level clouds may then persist much of the
day as the weak warm front lifts north and moistening onshore
flow continues. This is expected to keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler this afternoon when compared to the previous
couple of afternoons (i.e. upper 60s instead of lower 70s).
Low clouds and some fog redevelop by late evening, persisting
into Thursday morning. Given a slightly more southeast (versus
east) component to the low-level wind, this may allow low
clouds/fog to expand further east to and across the I-95
corridor. Southern Maryland to the Northern Neck of Virginia are
closer in proximity to the moisture sources of the Atlantic
Ocean, Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River, and may therefore
have a chance at some drizzle by early Thursday.
More appreciable clearing is expected by mid/late Thursday
morning as winds shift to a bit west of south, helping to scour
out some of the low-level moisture.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday
afternoons, then more seasonable Saturday.
Following a wind shift to the south and southwest on Thursday,
well above normal temperatures are expected. Afternoon high
temperatures reach into the lower to middle 70s. A dry front
looks to cross the area Friday turning winds to the northwest,
though I hesitate to call this a cold front with the lack of
cold air advection in its wake. The airmass will be drier, and
that coupled with downsloping flow is expected to push high
temperatures well into the middle to upper 70s on Friday. While
this is a solid 8 to 15 degrees above normal for late October,
it is still several degrees shy of daily records.
Some cold advection does take hold Friday night in the wake of a
secondary boundary as winds shift to the north. This should
allow for low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s and 40s.
A combination of subtle cold air advection and increased clouds
ahead of troughing developing over the middle of the country
will result in more seasonable daytime high temperatures on
Saturday - generally in the 60s (50s mountains). Anticipate lows
dropping into the 40s Saturday night with a continued increase
in clouds but near zero chance of precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 3...On-and-off rain showers are possible beginning
Sunday into early next week.
A broad area of low pressure will form over the Midwest, and
then track east late in the weekend. There is a potential for
rain showers beginning on Sunday, though it has trended drier
over the past several model runs. Mentionable precipitation
chances now hold off until Sunday evening in the latest forecast
package. These chances linger into Monday. Temperatures remain
in the upper 60s for highs Sunday and Monday (50s mountains),
near to slightly above average for the start of November.
As the initial system tracks offshore by Tuesday, a second,
potentially more potent upper-level low could form over the
Plains and make its way to the region by the middle of next
week. Uncertainty remains high regarding the track of this
system, but this could bring additional rainfall to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A bank of clouds east of the Blue Ridge persists into late this
morning, but will gradually clear out throughout the day.
Conditions eventually lift to VFR by this afternoon.
Additional low clouds or fog are expected to develop late this
evening into the overnight, with higher potential reaching
further east into the I-95 corridor TAF sites as light east
winds shift to southeast. Clouds should lift mid to late morning
Thursday as winds shift to the south and southwest in the wake
of a lifting warm front, with VFR then likely through Friday as
a dry cold front approaches/crosses. Winds will shift to the
northwest Friday, north Friday night, then northeast to east on
Saturday as another area of high pressure builds to the north.
Sunday has been trending drier as high pressure persists,
although there is increasing uncertainty at this range of the
forecast. Light southerly winds are expected during this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Light east to southeast flow is expected through tonight. Winds
shift to the south and southwest Thursday, then become
northwest to north Friday into Friday night. There may be an
increase in winds due to increased vertical mixing over near-
shore/narrower waterways Friday afternoon, with northerly
channeling more likely to bring gusts closer to SCA thresholds
Friday night.
Winds then remain below SCA thresholds through the weekend.
Winds become northeast to east Saturday, then southerly Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light onshore flow through Thursday may push sensitive
shoreline close to minor flood stage. Areas most at risk for
reaching minor tidal flood thresholds would be places like
Annapolis and Alexandria mainly during the evening tide cycles
(which are astronomically higher).
Light offshore flow should lower tidal anomalies Friday into
Saturday, before light southerly flow possibly causes at least a
small rebound on Sunday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion