045
FXUS61 KLWX 230739
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
339 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories were expanded for all waters today and
extended into Wed morning for the Chesapeake Bay waters. Key
Message 1 section was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Mid-level trough will traverse the region later today
  triggering another round of widespread showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- 2) A strong cold front brings back rain and thunderstorm
  chances for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid-level trough will traverse the region later today
triggering another round of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.

A shortwave-trough will traverse the region this afternoon
bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Guidance show an enhanced area of upper level divergence over
the area associated with the left exit region of a jet streak
passing overhead. Locally heavy rainfall is likely over southern
Maryland, particularly across Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties.
In those counties, 3+ inch rainfall totals in a short period of
time are possible which could lead some localized flooding in
those areas. A couple of severe thunderstorms are also possible
over those same areas, mainly between 2 PM and 7 PM before
showers exit the area early in the evening. Damaging winds would
be the primary threat. Otherwise, much cooler today with
temperatures some 20 degs cooler than yesterday and showers
ending from west to east during the afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings back rain and
thunderstorm  chances for this upcoming weekend.

A strong upper-level trough forms over the Upper Midwest before
transitioning over the Great Lakes later this Wednesday through
Friday, with a stemming cold front tracking through the Mid-Atlantic
by the start of the weekend. Southeast winds help to provide
moisture as this front moves through, increasing humidity as well as
chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week.

Exact timing of the front remains uncertain at this time, with
current ensembles showing a range of possible times through the
weekend where storms could form along the front. Damaging wind gusts
remain the primary hazard with any storms, but additional impacts
remain uncertain at this time. Otherwise, expect conditions to
remain hot & humid before and after the frontal boundary moves
through, with temperatures nominally decreasing after the front
passes but quickly increasing to mid-90s with dewpoints approaching
70 by next Monday. Upper level ridging moves into the region early
next week, reducing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will linger through this afternoon before improvements
back to VFR late this afternoon and evening as surface high
pressure builds over the region.

A strong cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms could bring
temporary flight restrictions across the area on Friday and
Saturday. Winds flow out of the southwest on Friday before
shifting northwesterly by Saturday night. Conditions gradually
improve by Sunday as the front transitions offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs were expanded across all waters for today and extended into
Wed morning for the Chesapeake Bay. Special Marine Warnings may
be needed south of the bay bridge and across the lower tidal
Potomac. High pressure builds overhead on Wednesday with winds
forecast to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.


Winds diminish below SCA thresholds by late Friday morning and
remain so through the weekend. Southerly winds shift westerly late
Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms possible over the
waters Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530-535-536-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion