837
FXUS61 KLWX 091931
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474 has been issued for most of
the area until 10 PM, although storms are likely to exit the
area sooner than that. Flood Watch was expanded westward to
include all of northern Maryland and portions of eastern West
Virginia. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne
Arundel County from 11 PM tonight through 5 AM Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and
  heavy rain, are possible through Friday.

- 2) Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week,
  followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce
damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity as they move east into a higher instability axis.
Locally damaging winds, isolated flash flooding, and frequent
lightning are the main threats. Activity should move east of the
Chesapeake Bay by 8 PM, if not sooner. It should remain quiet
overnight with patchy fog, especially in areas that saw rain
this afternoon.

Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday
given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily
westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more
organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest
day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the
previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place
again on Friday afternoon/evening, particularly south of I-66.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next
week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

Broad upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Desert
Southwest and Rockies on Monday, allowing for continued high
pressure to settle over the area on Monday. Temperatures continue to
stay in the low-to-mid 80s at the start of the work week before
steadily rising into midweek as heights continue to build.
Temperatures could return to the 90s by Wednesday, with humidity
increasing somewhat as dewpoints go from the lower to upper 60s &
low 70s as temperatures rise.

To the north, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over eastern
Canada Thursday going into Friday. This could introduce
opportunities for showers & thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as this system continues to track eastward. While probability
outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML
& AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for
severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As
details on this system become more defined, will have to
continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help
identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through 7 PM. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM
timeframe with lesser chances for Charlottesville. Restrictions
are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be
severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial
southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low
ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw
heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of
the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to
evening restrictions will again be possible.

A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to
northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on
Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south.
Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals between Monday and
Tuesday. Light easterly winds shift southwesterly Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small
Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early
next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will
again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust
fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this
afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to
the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some
of Friday`s convective threat, some storms could impact the
waters during the core heating hours.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds
between 5-10 knots shift south to southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet will continue through
tonight as winds remain southerly. This will likely result in
near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of
the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood
threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
tonight`s high tide. A gradual decline in water levels is
expected this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006-008-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-501-502-509-
     510.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for MDZ014.
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ027-029>031-
     040-053-054-501-505>507-526-527.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ028.
WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/SRT
MARINE...LFR/BRO/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion