190
FXUS61 KLWX 131802
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
202 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised shower and thunderstorm chances a bit into this evening.
Issued a Small Craft Advisory for Monday into Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some lingering showers through this evening before turning
  cooler with less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

- 2) Increasing precipitation chances later in the week with an
  incoming cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some lingering showers through this evening
before turning cooler with less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

A pre-frontal trough was helping induce a few showers and
thunderstorms as of early afternoon, but these should be rather
disorganized and isolated/brief in nature. Humidity remains
elevated, but overall forcing and instability are modest with
increasing subsidence aloft. The strongest thunderstorms could
produce wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph, pea size hail, brief heavy
downpours, and lightning strikes.

Heading into tonight, an approaching cold front from the Great
Lakes may induce additional showers along and west of the
Allegheny Front as weakening storms approach from the Ohio
Valley. This threat should end around or shortly after midnight.
Otherwise, this is largely a drier frontal passage which will
also lead to cool temperatures and lower humidity to start off
the work week.

Gradients on Monday are rather tight for mid-September as a
broad 1024-mb surface high approaches from the Great Lakes. This
will favor a breezy northwesterly wind for Monday, with gusts
up to 20 to 25 mph at times. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s
to low 80s (5 to 15 degrees cooler for mountain locales).

As the seasonably strong dome of high pressure settles over the
northeastern U.S. Monday night, low temperatures plunge into
the upper 40s to 50s. The autumnal feel to the air lingers into
Tuesday before an eventual warm up by mid-week. Plenty of
sunshine can be expected each day, but with decreasing winds on
Tuesday with the ridge along the Eastern Seaboard. This all
comes with dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s which is
certainly a change from recent days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing precipitation chances later in the week
with an incoming cold front.

Upper-level ridging could continue into Wednesday, then begin
to break down as a trough forms over the Hudson Bay. A stemming
cold front tracks east over the Mid-Atlantic during the later
half of the week, bringing increasing humidity as well as shower
& thunderstorm chances. There is still some uncertainty in the
timing of any precipitation, but generally there should be
increasing cloud cover by Thursday with a potential for showers
& thunderstorms between Thursday and throughout the weekend as
the front moves through. Severe probabilities continue to look
minimal for this period.

Temperatures rise back into the mid-to-upper 80s across the region
through Friday, then drop again in the wake of the front heading
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Have added relatively brief TEMPOs for -TSRA this afternoon with
shallow convection producing sporadic lightning approaching from
the west along a weak surface trough. Otherwise, VFR is expected
through Monday night. Winds turn N/NW Monday and gust 20-25 kts.

VFR conditions and lighter winds then continue Monday night through
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. Winds shift to
the east and southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday
and Friday. During the afternoon & evening hours throughout this
period, a passing cold front could bring temporary low CIGs at
terminals as a few showers and/or thunderstorms move through the
region. Southerly winds shift northeasterly on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A pop up shower or storm can`t be ruled out through early this
evening, and may prompt a Special Marine Warning. A cold front
arriving early Monday is forecast to yield increasing
northwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued from early Monday morning into
Monday night. Multiple wind shifts take place on Tuesday as high
pressure passes by to the north. However, gusts drop off back
into the 5 to 10 knot range, generally out of the east to
southeast.

Winds stay below SCA thresholds through Friday. Southerly winds
shift northerly by Friday afternoon in the wake of a cold front,
which could bring a few showers and/or thunderstorms over the waters
between Thursday & Friday evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion