588
FXUS61 KLWX 241411
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a Small Craft Advisory for Thursday afternoon through
early Friday morning, see marine discussion for more details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Tranquil weather conditions are expected through Thursday
  as high pressure builds over the region.

- 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend as a cold
  front approaches at the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil weather conditions are expected tonight
through Thursday as high pressure builds over the region.

High pressure will continue to build in from the Ohio/Tennessee
River Valleys through early Thursday bringing tranquil weather
conditions and lower humidity for the middle of the workweek.

It will be a break from Summer Wednesday with wake up temps in the
upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (cooler
mountains). Comfortable conditions continue into Wednesday night as
the high slides overhead. High pressure will slide offshore Thursday
allowing for southerly return flow back into the region. This
will push temperatures back toward 90 degrees east of the Blue
Ridge Thursday afternoon along with a slow uptick in humidity.
Any rain chances look to hold off until the end of the workweek
and into the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend
as a cold front approaches at the end of the week.

A strong cold front with a center low forming over the Great Lakes
will track across the Mid-Atlantic late this week, bringing
additional chances for showers & thunderstorms this weekend.
Precipitation onset could begin Friday and into Saturday as the cold
front slowly meanders offshore, with some thunderstorms having the
potential to become severe.

However, timing of this front remains uncertain as the position of
the center low to the north still shows some variance. ML
probabilities still show a low-end chance for thunderstorms through
the end of the weekend, with some members showing an either Friday
or Saturday cold front arrival while other members show it arriving
slightly later. Movement of the center low to the north will be
critical for tracking the movement of the corresponding front to the
south. The latest 12Z deterministic models generally show the front
arriving within the Friday & Saturday timeframe, with the low
transitioning offshore by Sunday. Widespread rain & thunderstorm
chances thus remain elevated through this period.

Once the front moves offshore early next week, expect high pressure
to move in and a potentially extended period of upper-level ridging
over the Mid-Atlantic near the end of the forecast period. This will
allow temperatures to gradually increase, with high temperatures
potentially reaching back into the 90s across the metros by next
Monday. With upper-level ridging potentially extending across a
large area of CONUS, this gradual warming could persist into the
long-term along with reduced precipitation chances once this
weekend`s front moves offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northwest winds are expected today at 5 to 10 kts. High
pressure will settle overhead tonight before sliding offshore
Thursday allowing for VFR conditions to continue. Winds will
shift from the west and northwest Wednesday back to the south
Thursday at less than 10 kts.

A strong cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms could bring
temporary flight restrictions across the area Friday and Saturday.
Conditions gradually improve Sunday as the front transitions
offshore. Southwesterly winds shift northwesterly by Saturday night
before returning to southerly flow Sunday night in the wake of the
front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds overhead today with winds tapering off
throughout the day. Sub- SCA levels winds will continue through
Thursday morning, but quickly pick up in the afternoon out of
the south. SCAs have been hoisted for the Chesapeake Bay and
lower Potomac zones Thursday afternoon and night due to
southerly channeling.

Winds drop back below SCA thresholds Friday into the weekend.
Southerly winds transition northerly winds Saturday evening
before shifting southerly again by Sunday night in the wake of a
potential cold front. Shower and thunderstorms will accompany
this front Friday through the weekend. Some storms could be
strong to severe, leading to the potential of SMWs each
afternoon. Confidence in this is low at this time based upon
timing and placement of surface features.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL/EST/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/EST/SRT
MARINE...LFR/CJL/EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion