944
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the area today. An upper-
level trough will remain overhead through Tuesday before a
reinforcing cold front passes through the area late Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure will briefly return for Friday
before low pressure passes nearby or to our south during the
Saturday. High pressure will return for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong cold front is approaching from the west early this
morning while a southerly flow ahead of the boundary has allowed
for mild conditions. The cold front will pass through the area
from west to east, first through the Allegheny Highlands by 6
AM before clearing the I-81 corridor by 10 AM, the metro areas
by noon, and southern Maryland by 2 PM.
Ahead of the front, the southerly flow will allow for warm and
moist air to overrun surface cooler air in place. This will
result in some low clouds and drizzle (fog along the ridge tops)
along with mild conditions.
Behind the front, a sudden wind shift to the west and northwest
is expected along with strong winds and rapidly falling
temperatures. A few showers will likely accompany the frontal
passage as well. A strong gradient and pressure rises combined
with strong cold and dry air advection will allow for strong
winds aloft to mix down to the surface. A High Wind Warning is
in effect for the Allegheny Highlands through tonight and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for most other locations (exception across
portions of the VA Piedmont) through this evening. Wind gusts
around 60 to 65 mph are expected across the Allegheny Highlands
and Blue Ridge Mountains with 45 to 55 mph most likely across
most other locations. The strongest winds are expected this
afternoon into this evening. There is some concern for 60 mph
wind gusts to spill further east into the I-81 corridor and
metro areas, and this can be seen in the latest NBM probs
showing a chance for peak gusts around 50 knots. Confidence is
not high enough for a High Wind Warning at this time since
bufkit soundings show the 50 knots at the top of the mixing
layer with a little directional shear.
Winds may diminish some later tonight due to the loss of
mixing, but blustery and very cold conditions are expected.
Wind chills late tonight will dip into the single digits and
teens for most locations with below zero along the ridges.
Upslope snow showers are likely behind the cold front for
locations along/west of the Allegheny Front this afternoon
through tonight. The steadiest snow is expected to be this
evening where soundings show decent alignment with low-level
moisture, a little instability, and the DGZ. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for these areas. Of course, with the very
cold temperatures and strong winds, near blizzard conditions are
expected. Considered a Blizzard warning, but thinking is that
blizzard conditions (1/4 mile with 35+ mph for 3 consecutive hours
or more) will be more localized throughout time vs widespread.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will slowly pass through eastern Canada Tuesday
while the upper-level trough remains overhead. A strong gradient
between that low and high pressure over the central CONUS will
result in more blustery west to northwest winds. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the Allegheny Highlands and Blue
Ridge Mountains. A Wind Advisory may be needed for locations
near/north of I-70 into the eastern Panhandle of WV and extreme
northern VA, but confidence is too low to extend headlines as
of now. The strongest winds will be through midday before
gradually diminishing throughout the afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Highs will range from the teens in the mountains to the
20s and 30s for most other locations, but the brisk winds will
keep wind chills in the teens and 20s for most areas with below
zero to single digits in the mountains.
An upper-level disturbance associated with the northern stream
of the jet will pass through the area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. This system will lack moisture, but a period
of light snow cannot be ruled out along with the passage of this
system. As of now, the probability is low enough not to be
reflected in the forecast, but it is nonzero. The most likely
scenario is for any light snow to be along/west of the Allegany
Front, but this will continue to be monitored to see if trends
increase for a little light snow east of the mountains.
Dry and chilly conditions are expected behind the disturbance
for later Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, another
upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will
approach the area late Wednesday night. This system may be a
little stronger. A period of light snow is possible east of the
mountains, and if this comes to fruition it could cause an
impact late New Years Eve into New Years Day. For locations
along/west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the
low-level flow along with saturation, alignment with the DGZ,
and forcing from the boundary/disturbance suggests that there is
a likelihood for accumulating snow. With high snow-liquid
ratios, later shifts may consider issuing a Winter Storm Watch
for these areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level disturbance and its reinforcing cold front will
move off to the east Thursday morning. A little light snow
cannot be ruled out east of the mountains, and accumulating
snow is likely along/west of the Allegheny Front.
High pressure will build overhead for later Thursday through
Friday, bringing dry and cold conditions.
Low pressure will pass nearby or to our south Saturday. If the
system tracks far enough to the north, a period of rain or
wintry mix/snow is possible, but confidence is low at this
time.
High pressure will most likely return to end the weekend with
dry and chilly conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will lift through the terminals this morning, and
cigs should improve behind the frontal passage to MVFR and
possibly VFR levels. The timing is a little uncertain, but cigs
should improve between 11 and 14Z for most areas.
A strong cold front will pass through the terminals between 14Z
and 17Z from from west to east. A few showers will likely
accompany the frontal passage, but cigs/vsbys should remain
above IFR levels. A sudden wind shift to the west and northwest
is expected behind the frontal passage and strong winds are
expected as well. Wind gusts around 40 to 45 knots are most
likely, and a few gusts could even approach 50 knots. The
strongest winds are expected this afternoon into this evening.
Winds will diminish a little, but still remain gusty tonight
through most of Tuesday before further diminishing late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.
Generally VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through
Friday. Will watch a couple disturbance. The first one will pass
through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A few flurries
or light snow cannot be ruled out, but confidence is very low at
this time. A stronger disturbance may bring a little light snow
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Will continue to monitor
both of these systems.
&&
.MARINE...
A south to southwest flow will continue ahead of a strong cold
front through late this morning and SCA gusts are expected. The
strong cold front will pass through the waters between 16Z and
19Z, and a sudden wind shift to the west and northwest is
expected along with strong winds. A few showers may accompany
the frontal passage as well. A Gale Warning is in effect for
the waters today through this evening. Gusts around 40 to 45
knots are most likely, especially this afternoon into this
evening.
Winds will subside a little late tonight into Tuesday, but
remain gusty. A Gale Warning is in effect for the upper Tidal
Potomac River late tonight as well as the upper and middle
portions of the Bay. The Gale Warning may need to be extended
further south, but confidence is too low at this time. Either
way, it will be windy with gusts around 35 knots in the northern
portions of the waters and gusts around 30 knots in the southern
portions of the waters through most of Tuesday.
Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night, but an SCA will
likely be needed during this time and continuing through most of
Wednesday. A weaker gradient may bring lighter winds late in the
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will be elevated through early this afternoon in a
southerly flow. Annapolis will be near minor flood threshold
around the high tide at 12:40 PM this afternoon.
A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected later this
afternoon through Tuesday night. Tidal blowout conditions are
possible tonight through Tuesday night. A Low Water Advisory
may be needed.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
MDZ008.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
MDZ003.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502-509-
510.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VAZ036>040-053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VAZ025>031.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday
for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
WVZ050>053-055.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ501>506.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ530>543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ530.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion