500
FXUS61 KLWX 301819
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
219 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All key messages were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday.

- 2) A pair of cold fronts will move across the area in the next
     five days, one Friday evening, and a second one Monday.

- 3) A strong area of Canadian high pressure brings frost and
     freeze conditions beginning Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will remain above normal through
Friday.

Upper level ridge will continue to build over the region,
cresting over the area by the end of Thursday. High clouds
associated with a passing shortwave-trough to the north tonight
should prevent widespread fog development, but some river
valley fog is still possible west of I-81. Otherwise, fair
weather will continue through Fri morning along with rising
temperatures. Temps should climb into the mid 80s Thursday under
abundant sunshine and approach 90 on Friday under high clouds
before showers arrive in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A pair of cold fronts will move across the area
in the next five days, one Friday evening, and a second one
Monday.

The first front will cross the area Fri evening. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as the
front crosses the area. Not a lot of upper support with this
front and neither a lot of instability, so only light to
moderate rainfall amounts are expected. The front will stall
across the southern Mid-Atlantic states Saturday while high
pressure builds to the north. This will provide for a cooler,
dry day Saturday.

A wave of low pressure develops along the front in the southern
Appalachians Sunday bringing the threat of showers again to the
area Sunday into Sunday evening.

A second stronger cold front associated with a deepening trof
south of James Bay will cross the area Monday morning. This
appears to be a dry frontal passage, but bring a significant
cool down for the first full week of October.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong area of Canadian high pressure brings
frost and freeze conditions beginning Monday night.

Upper level troughing pivots over the east coast Monday and Tuesday,
pushing a potent area of Canadian high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic. While overnight temperatures east of the Blue Ridge stay
in the 40s overnight, lows along and west of the Blue Ridge will
drop into the upper 20s and 30s. Frost and freeze conditions are
possible both Monday and Tuesday nights, mainly along the
Alleghenies although could extend into the Shenandoah Valley. Low
temperatures in the Alleghenies will be in the upper 20s to low 30s
with the Shenandoah valley dipping into the mid 30s.

With high pressure overhead, dry conditions are expected both days
with weakening winds. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 60s
for most with those at higher elevations staying in the 50s. Tuesday
will be noticeably cooler during the day with highs in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Fair weather tonight through Friday morning. Scattered showers
and a perhaps a thunderstorm are expected Fri afternoon and
evening with a cold front. Flight restrictions appear unlikely
with this frontal passage.

A front stalled across the Carolinas brings increased precipitation
chances across the terminals Saturday night and Sunday. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible during times of precipitation with
lower CIGs also possible due to the nearby front. Winds blow 5
to 10 knots out of the north/northeast on Saturday before
shifting to southerly on Sunday. Winds remain light on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be on the increase through Fri night. SCA conditions
are possible Fri night with the first frontal passage.

Winds blow out of the north/northeast on Saturday before shifting to
southerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
Saturday morning before winds decrease throughout the day. Winds are
expected to remain below SCA criteria on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Some uncertainty continues to exist for the remainder of the
week as tide levels remain elevated and subtly fluctuating.
These small changes will make the difference in whether there is
additional minor flooding. Alexandria, Dahlgren, Annapolis, and
Havre de Grace have the greatest chance of reaching flood stage.
The evening high tides are favored for any flooding since they
are astronomically higher. A cold frontal passage should lead to
declining water levels Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion