934
FXUS61 KLWX 041944
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
344 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have raised the cloud cover forecast given the persistence of
low stratus across the area. Otherwise, with tidal flooding
looking more likely in Annapolis, have hoisted Coastal Flood
Advisories for tonight`s high tide. Looking ahead to Tuesday
night, the increase in wind around the dome of Canadian high
pressure has decreased the threat for frost conditions.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cloudy finish to the weekend, with the potential for frost
and freezing conditions west of the Blue Ridge by late Monday.
- 2) Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are forecast for
Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cloudy finish to the weekend, with the potential
for frost and freezing conditions west of the Blue Ridge by late
Monday.
A cold air damming (CAD) wedge remains in place across the Mid-
Atlantic region. The persistent low-level north to northeasterly
winds have maintained a stratus deck with some areas of drizzle.
However, any of the more concentrated rainfall remains well to
the south around the Virginia Tidewater region. While the mid-
level water vapor channel and earlier IAD sounding showed a dry
mid-level layer, immense moisture remains trapped in the stable
lower atmosphere. For the remainder of the day, expect
temperatures to hold steady in the 60s. With some cloud breaks
across the Allegheny Front, spotty low 70s are possible across
the mountain valleys. Overnight conditions stay cloudy,
accompanied by some patchy fog development.
Any residual cloud cover should erode as a cold front sweeps
through the area early Monday morning. This yields a mostly
sunny day with temperatures warming back into the upper 60s to
mid 70s, with 60s across the mountains. Northwesterly winds pick
up behind the frontal system with afternoon gusts to around 20
to 25 mph. A strong area of Canadian high pressure pushes in
from the Midwest on Monday before settling over the local area
by the overnight period. This sets the stages for the first
widespread frost event, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. The
Allegheny ridgetops could even near the freezing mark. For east
of the Blue Ridge, forecast lows will be in the 40s.
High pressure maintains its influence over the area on Tuesday
which brings cool temperatures, lighter winds, and sunny skies.
Most can expect highs in the 60s, with mid/upper 50s across
mountain locales. Tuesday night also looks chilly, but forecast
temperatures have come up a tad given light southerly flow
around the departing high pressure center. At this point
temperatures would be just mild enough to avoid another frost
event. For most, the forecast lows are in the low/mid 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are
forecast for Wednesday through Saturday.
High pressure will remain in control locally through much of the
upcoming week. Dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday through
Saturday, along with warmer temperatures. Highs each day will
generally be in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
There are signs that the stretch of dry weather will come to an end
on Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks northward out of the
Gulf toward the Ohio Valley. If this occurs, rain will likely move
into the area from the south. However, there`s still a lot of
variability in model guidance with respect to what will occur with
this system, and if/when we`ll get rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings will remain a fixture in the forecast for the
remainder of the day and into the night. The CAD wedge maintains
its presence over the region with continued low stratus and
prevailing north to northeasterly winds. Although some lingering
drizzle is possible this afternoon, the forecast does become
drier. Restrictions should eventually lift just before daybreak
on Monday as a cold front tracks through. Thereafter, VFR
conditions are expected as Canadian high pressure moves in from
the Midwest states. Northwesterly winds on Monday could gust up
to 20 to 25 knots, particularly during the afternoon hours.
Winds eventually turn lighter and more variable on Tuesday with
high pressure in place.
VFR conditions are expected on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the south on Wednesday, and then
out of the west to northwest on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
North to northeasterly winds are currently gusting around 5 to
10 knots. Any increase in marine winds do not occur until the
second half of Monday in response to a cold front. This boundary
crosses the waters Monday morning with a shift to mainly west
to northwesterly flow. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected for
Monday afternoon through much of the overnight hours. Small
Craft Advisories are likely going to be needed across portions
of the waters. Winds turn lighter into Tuesday with high
pressure overhead.
Sub-SCA level winds are expected for both Wednesday and Thursday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the south on Wednesday, and out of
the west to northwest on Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have risen quite a bit over the last 24 hours
with current values around 1 to 1.25 feet. This is bringing some
of the more sensitive locations into Action stage, with some
tidal flooding possible at Annapolis. The forecast ahead shows
anomalies remaining elevated through tonight before post-frontal
northwesterlies begin to lower water levels a bit on Monday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion