924
FXUS61 KLWX 190203
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
903 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push through overnight into Friday.
Showers will form along a warm front with additional showers
developing ahead of a cold front Friday. Cooler temperatures and
strong winds will develop behind the passing cold front. Brief
high pressure returns this weekend, followed by a dry frontal
passage Sunday afternoon. High pressure is expected into early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front is currently pushing northward into central and
Northeast Maryland. Light rain showers are forming ahead of and
along this warm front in Northeast Maryland, northeastern
Virginia and south into the Virginia Piedmont. A potent upper-
level low pressure system is currently pushing across the Lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with an associated surface cold
front pushing through western Ohio. Just ahead of this cold
front, a squall line of heavier rain showers has developed and
shows good progression eastward over western Ohio. This storm
system, as a whole, has a history of producing widespread
strong, damaging wind gusts across a large part of the mid
section of the country.
Additional warmth and moisture will stream northward ahead of
the main low pressure system into our region overnight. With the
warm front nearly exiting our region to the north around
midnight or shortly before, our temperatures and dewpoint
temperatures will slowly climb overnight where they may be 5 to
10 degrees milder than the current time. Temperatures could be
in the middle 50s along and south and east of I-95 overnight by
around 3am or 4am.
Showers will linger and be accompanied by additional showers
overnight. We could even have a few thunderstorms with them as
the main low pressure system is very potent and shows no signs
of weakening and has many signs of strong energy. Most of the
heavier rain showers and isolated thunderstorms would be more
likely late overnight and early Friday morning. These showers
and thunderstorms could bring down some 35 to 45 mph wind gusts
and could be higher in the mountains. Shortly after the surface
cold front and its convection push through the region, the mid-
level and upper level energy support will follow. It is in this
transition and a couple hours thereafter that the strongest
winds would evolve the temperatures through the day Friday would
steadily fall through the 40s and 30s and into the 20s by late
in the afternoon and evening. Winds could gust 40 to 50 mph and
up to 65 mph at higher elevations.
A period of upslope snow showers and squalls are more likely
along the Allegheny Front near Pendleton County and north to
Garrett County Friday. Blowing snow appears to become one of
the problems facing these snow squalls and very strong winds,
along with slippery roads. Treacherous travel is expected for
the Friday PM commute for I-68/US-219, as well as US-50/48/33
approaching the ridgeline. Accumulating snow could make it as
far east as US-220.
With all of this being said, Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect from 10am to 10pm Friday for the Alleghenies and High
Wind Warnings remain in effect from 6am to 7pm Friday for the
Alleghenies and a few areas just to the east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
High pressure builds overhead Friday night before quickly moving
offshore throughout the day on Saturday. This is due to a very
progressive quasi-zonal flow aloft. Winds pick up Saturday
afternoon out of the SW ahead of a quick-moving frontal
boundary, set to swing through the region on Sunday. In the wake
of Friday`s cold front, still expect highs to only reach the mid
40s, but that is around normal for mid-December.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A shortwave trough and its associated surface low will pass by to
our north during the day Sunday, with the surface low tracking
eastward across Quebec. This system will be rather moisture starved,
and no precipitation is expected locally as a result. However, the
system will drive a reinforcing cold front through the area. Winds
will pick up out of the northwest and gust to around 30-40 mph for
most. Gusts may potentially reach Wind Advisory criteria in the
mountains. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 30s
in the mountains to the lower 50s across Central Virginia and
Southern Maryland.
High pressure is forecast to build in at the surface on Monday. Dry
conditions, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures are expected,
with highs generally in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Upper ridging
is forecast to build over the center of the country by Tuesday and
Wednesday, which will place the northeastern US within northwesterly
flow aloft. Most guidance has a shortwave embedded within
northwesterly flow tracking off to our north and east during the day
on Tuesday. Much like the preceding system, it looks to be moisture
starved in nature. However it may produce just enough lift to result
in a few showers. Drier conditions are expected by Wednesday as high
pressure builds to our north. High temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday are forecast to be in the 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warming temperatures with a southerly wind ahead of a powerful
front set to push through overnight into Friday morning.
Southerly winds gust 15 to 25 knots into the overnight ahead of
a trailing cold front. Some convection is possible overnight,
but more likely in the form of a brief heavy downpour,
especially along the actual front early Friday morning. This
could also be accompanied by a surge of 30-40 knot winds along
the main line.
VFR conditions and gusty winds are expected across all terminals on
Friday in the wake of the cold front. Wind gusts will be higher
up towards MRB, BWI, and MTN, where 40-45 kt winds can be
expected. Elsewhere, generally around 25-35 kts gusts are
expected Friday afternoon.
Winds diminish Friday evening before becoming light overnight.
Light southerly winds on Saturday morning pick up quickly during
the afternoon, but then become light again overnight.
VFR conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday. Winds may
gust to around 30 knots out of the northwest on Sunday. Lighter
winds are expected on Monday as high pressure builds in from the
west.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will steadily increase overnight out of the south ahead
of a powerful cold front. Wind gusts likely stay around 20-30
knots, with a signal for stronger winds over the wider waters.
A squall line will cross the waters which could bring down some
brief 35-45 kt gusts Friday morning. This will be followed by a
brief lull, but also a wind shift out of the W/NW. A surge of
winds arrives Friday afternoon, which will likely bring gale-
force winds to most of the waters. Highest gusts will be in the
Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, and over the upper tidal
Potomac River.
As high pressure builds over the area, winds diminish Friday
night, becoming light by Saturday morning.
Small Craft Advisories are possible Saturday afternoon. At
least high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely
within northwesterly flow on Sunday, and Gale gusts may be
possible. Sub-SCA level northwesterly winds are expected on
Monday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for MDZ008.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Friday for MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-503>508.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for MDZ501-510.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MDZ502-509.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for
MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ025>031-
036>040-053-054-501-505-506-526.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ503-504-
507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Friday for WVZ050>053-055.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for WVZ501-503-
505.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for WVZ502-504-
506.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ530>533-
535>542.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ530>533-535>542.
Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ534-543.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CJL
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion