298
FXUS61 KLWX 230747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some enhanced rainfall over the Baltimore area produced around
1" of rain in the last couple of hours. A few stream rises were
observed, but no flooding is expected from this. Rainfall
continues to retreat north, as the next round of showers is
developing to the south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Wet, Cool Holiday Weekend Ahead.

- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances linger during the middle
  to latter portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet, Cool Holiday Weekend Ahead

An overall wet pattern is expected to continue this weekend into
Memorial Day. A stalled boundary lingers over the region, with a
surface ridge off the coast of southern New England slowly
retreating offshore through Monday. A shortwave trough aloft and its
associated surface low moving across the OH Valley are helping to
enhance rainfall this morning. This rain is going to slowly push
north of the area after sunrise. Another round of steady moderate
rain pushes north into the area this afternoon. The surface high
continues to reinforce the wedge over the Mid-Atlantic, with cool
easterly winds persisting through tonight. Winds are forecast to
increase this afternoon, especially east of I-95 where gusts of 20-
30 mph are possible. This is going to also maintain well below
normal temps in the 50s areawide.

An inverted surface trough will move north along the coast tonight,
possibly bringing enhanced rainfall along I-95. Some of the high res
guidance is indicating the potential for 1-2" of rain over several
hours if stronger convection develops. While flash flooding is
unlikely, if the higher rainfall totals are realized over an urban
area, then there could be some minor flooding issues. Given elevated
instability there could be a few rumbles of thunder tonight.

Subsidence on the backside of the inverted trough is going bring a
period of drier conditions Sunday afternoon, especially east of the
Blue Ridge and north of I-64. Surrounding areas are likely to
destabilize enough to support afternoon to evening showers and
thunderstorms, including west of the Blue Ridge. To the east, the
CAD wedge likely hangs on just enough to prevent enough instability
from developing. A cold front slides down through the area Sunday
night into Memorial Day. Warmer temperatures, better instability,
and plenty of moisture will bring the chance for thunderstorms
Monday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances linger during the
middle to latter portion of next week.

A weak boundary will persist across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms to form
along and south of it both days. There are better chances of
encountering these showers and thunderstorms the further south you
are in the region. Temperatures will be near average Tuesday, then
perhaps rise a couple of degrees above average on Wednesday,
especially in the southern zones. Winds will be light and variable
with exception to thunderstorms both day. Gusts could be over 40 mph
in thunderstorms.

During the day Thursday and continuing into Friday, a reinforcing
cold front will push southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the
mid-Atlantic. This front could ignite additional heavier showers and
more frequent thunderstorms. The current thinking is that most of
these additional showers and thunderstorms will across the far
southern zones and central Appalachians. The reason is a big area of
high pressure will try to build behind the front and usher in cooler
and drier air quickly throughout the two day period. Low certainty
on placement of heavier showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
be near or slightly above average in most places. Temperatures my be
a few degrees below average near the Mason-Dixon region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sub-VFR conditions are expected to continue through Sunday afternoon
as a stalled front lingers overhead. Periods of moderate to heavy
showers will reduce VSBY at affected terminals, with IFR CIGs
prevailing most of the time. CIGs could drop to LIFR for a time
period tonight into Sunday morning, then VFR conditions slowly
return Sunday though the region remains clouded over. A cold front
moving through Sunday night into Monday will bring additional
showers and thunderstorms.

Sub-VFR conditions possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the CHO terminal area both days. There is a
chance that IAD and DCA could have brief encounters of sub-VFR
conditions. Winds light and variable to south around 5 knots
Tuesday. Winds light and northwest around 5 knots. Wind gusts higher
in thunderstorms both days.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the waters through
Saturday night in response to strengthening onshore flow. Winds are
expected to diminish Saturday night and remain below SCA criteria
through the first half of next week. A cold front dropping down
across the waters on Memorial Day could produce afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

No marine hazards expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds
may be briefly higher and waves may be briefly higher in
thunderstorm activity, primarily across the central Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strengthening onshore flow through tonight will cause tidal levels
to increase. Annapolis approaches minor flood stage during high tide
early this afternoon, and most other locations approach action
stage. Winds weaken Sunday and that should allow water levels to
drop.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion