045
FXUS61 KLWX 110207
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
907 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor adjustments have been made to tonight`s forecast
based on current observational and model data.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) An area of low pressure may impact the area this weekend,
  but the details remain highly uncertain.

- 2) Relatively mild weather will linger into Wednesday east of
  the mountains, but colder weather and bouts of upslope wintry
  precipitation return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An area of low pressure may impact the area this
weekend, but the details remain highly uncertain.

The 12Z deterministic global models continued to show rather large
inconsistencies with their previous runs with respect to the
potential storm during the Sun-Sun night period, basically showing
the storm missing our area to the south or just too warm for snow.
On the other hand, the ensemble and the AIFS ensemble guidance
continue to show some risk of wintry weather to our area, mainly for
areas west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The 12Z EPS showed some
clustering with a low pressure center near Cape Hatteras bringing
precip to the southern half of the fcst area with the system moving
quickly out to sea early Monday while trends in the AIFS ensemble
mean showed this system remaining further south than the EPS with a
lessening risk of snow. In summary, large uncertainty still looms
with respect to the track and whether there will be enough cold air
to support snow outside of the mountain areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Relatively mild weather will linger into Wednesday
east of the mountains, but colder weather and bouts of upslope
wintry precipitation return mid to late week.

The brief stretch of mild weather will come to an end over the
next 24 to 36 hours following the passage of a cold front.

Not much precipitation is expected east of the Appalachians,
though a few showers could still pop up this evening/early
overnight as the front moves by. There is an outside chance
(10-15%) of some very spotty and light freezing rain over
northeastern Maryland with temperatures hovering near freezing
this evening. Upstream radar shows a band of very light
precipitation across central Pennsylvania, but most models have
been trending away from measurable precipitation in our forecast
area as this moisture largely skirts by to the north. The 00Z
IAD sounding shows very dry low level air with a precipitable
water value of 0.43 inches.

A few extra rain showers are possible given some southwest
upslope enhancement into the west side of the Appalachians this
evening, but even here amounts should be quite light. Some
convection that formed in elevated instability across central
West Virginia is also brushing the western forecast area, but is
falling apart as it crosses the mountains. As the night wears
on, however, temperatures fall readily behind the cold front
along and west of the Allegheny Front. Forecast soundings show
saturated profiles, but only in the lowest 2,000 feet or so
above the ground. This, coupled with temperatures just below
freezing in this layer, would support a period of upslope
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain (lack of ice crystals),
perhaps mixed with a little snow at times in any slightly deeper
showers that manage to develop heading into Wednesday. Went
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this threat from
late tonight until mid afternoon Wednesday. Despite air
temperatures in the 40s and 50s this afternoon, a lingering
snow/ice pack and cold ground temperatures should support some
ice accretion. This may result in some slick travel for the
Wednesday morning commute, though total amounts are likely hard
pressed to exceed 0.10".

In the wake of the cold front on Wednesday, blustery northwest
winds will take hold across the region. There is a bit of a
signal for some downslope enhancement off the Alleghenies, which
could result in some 45-50 mph gusts Wednesday into Wednesday
night along and east of the ridgelines. Confidence was too low
for an advisory given the marginal nature of the winds in most
guidance (plus a downward trend in the 12z HREF), but have
mentioned gusts to 45 mph in the Winter Weather Advisory. For
areas near and east of I-81, gusts of 25 to perhaps 40 mph are
likely. Downsloping northwest flow will compensate somewhat for
cold advection leading to high temperatures near or even
slightly above normal, but with colder wind chills than today.
Wave clouds appear likely in this pattern which could result in
periods of mostly cloudy skies, though current guidance is not
quite yet picking up on these clouds (hence the partly to mostly
sunny forecast for the moment - will evaluate in future updates).

As cold advection continues and saturation/inversion heights
rise later Wednesday into Thursday, snow should become the
predominant precipitation type over the Alleghenies. An inch or
two of snow seems plausible, but with a lot of the Great Lakes
frozen over the moisture source will be lacking. Am currently
anticipating sub-advisory snowfall as a result, though there is
the potential for spillover due to FROUDE numbers of 1-2.

The colder airmass will linger through the end of the week,
though it will not be nearly as frigid as recent cold spells.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are most likely at the TAF sites through
Thursday. However, some lower CIGs (around FL025) are possible
especially near KMRB from 06Z-18Z. A brief sprinkle or shower
can`t be ruled out as a cold front crosses during the late
evening to early overnight (03-08Z). However, abundant dry air
should preclude any ceiling/visibility issues, and have thus
removed the PROB30 groups. S/SW winds 4-8 kts will switch to
W/NW between 04Z-08Z. A period of LLWS is likely this evening as
a southwesterly low level jet pivots across a low level
inversion. Winds increase on Wednesday with gusts of 20-30 kts
likely in the afternoon and into the evening. Elevated winds
persist through Thursday.

Relatively light winds Fri and Sat with no flight restrictions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will remain generally light through
this evening, though a few gusts of 15-20 kts are possible
around southern MD as a warm front lifts through. Winds shift to
the west and northwest late tonight and increase Wednesday
through Thursday with gusts of 20 to 30 knots likely. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters during this
period.

Winds begin to diminish Friday. No SCA conditions expected through
Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for MDZ008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     MDZ509.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/DHOF
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion