165
FXUS61 KLWX 111304
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
904 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heavier showers over the DC Metro have now pushed east.
Additional showers continue through early afternoon, though
mostly from DC northward. A few thunderstorms possible in
Central VA late this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Storm chances linger through at least Saturday, with a
  possibly drier finish to the weekend.

- 2) Seasonably warm ahead of a mid-week cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Storm chances linger through at least Saturday,
with a possibly drier finish to the weekend.

Most of the heavy shower activity of the DC metro earlier this
morning has pushed east and out of the area. Additional light to
moderate showers are noted over northern MD, pushing east to the
Baltimore area. A few light showers possible elsewhere, though
it looks to be mostly dry into the afternoon.

Additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon
to evening over the Potomac Highlands into the central Virginia
Piedmont region. Overall conditions today will yield more
clouds than sun. This is accompanied by high temperatures in the
mid 70s to low 80s, locally a bit cooler across the mountains.

The cold front initially north of the Mason-Dixon Line is
forecast to settle toward the Virginia-North Carolina border by
tonight. Despite the frontal passage, its more diffuse nature
will only bring a limited drop in temperatures and humidity
levels. Saturday morning will start off in the 60s which comes
with further shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the day.
The focus is driven by an elongated trough currently crossing
the Arklatex states. As this array of embedded shortwaves lift
across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic,
storm chances increase in earnest. The 00Z high-resolution model
suite shows an uptick in rainfall amounts, some of which are on
the higher end (1 to 2 inches in 24 hours). With precipitable
water values in the 1.75 to 2.00 inch range and deep warm cloud
layers, some fairly efficient storms are possible in this
environment. As such, the Weather Prediction Center supports a
Slight risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday, especially
across the I-95 urban corridor. Will continue to monitor the
situation as new mesoscale guidance arrives.

Coming off temperatures similar to today, expect a slight warm
up into Sunday with highs returning to the mid 80s. Some
residual shower activity is possible to start the day. However,
the local area will be in the wake of the passing shortwave
trough. Expect some increase in humidity as the boundary to the
south returns northward as a warm front. Unlike previous days, a
fair amount of sunshine is possible, particularly for the second
half of the day. Sunday night`s low temperatures will fall into
the 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably warm ahead of a mid-week cold front.

500mb ridge builds Mon through Wed, before weakening as SW
troughing and associated sfc cold front move through midweek.
Some spread on exactly what day this happens, but overall
consensus around Thu. This could bring showers and
thunderstorms, but probability of svr wx remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Now that most of the heavier rain has moved out of the area, VFR
conditions prevail. A few thunderstorms are possible around CHO
this afternoon, where a PROB30 group is in the TAF. Overall
winds today will shift many times, but should remain around 5
knots or less.

Models have shown the potential for lower ceilings late tonight
into Saturday morning. Some terminals could move over to MVFR
at that point. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on
Saturday which will favor sub-VFR conditions at times,
particularly during the afternoon/evening hours. With the
frontal zone off to the south, prevailing winds will be out of
the east to southeast. Restrictions may persist into Saturday
night, while drier weather returns for Sunday amidst mainly west
to northwesterly winds.

VFR conditions Mon and Tue with light N`ly winds Mon
veering E`ly Mon night and S`ly Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
A brief northerly surge of wind along the cold front produced
wind gusts around 20 knots over the open waters of the bay. That
has now mostly diminished, with winds around 10 knots. Winds
turn more east to southeasterly by Saturday as the front pushes
off to the south. This brings an increase in winds that may near
advisory criteria on Saturday. Afternoon/evening convection may
also support some hazardous marine conditions which would
include lightning activity. Gradients weaken into Sunday with
gusts in the 5 to 10 knot range.

SCAs expected Mon with brisk N`ly winds. Winds veer out of
E Mon night and then S Tue, but remain below SCA levels by Tue
afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal levels remain normal as anomalies sit near 0 feet early
this morning. Initial light winds will shift to northwesterly
later today which would support no coastal flooding issues.
Looking towards late Saturday, water levels increase again
ahead of a warm front moving through the region. This should
persist into Sunday before a cold front eventually crosses the
area by Monday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/BRO/CPB
AVIATION...KRR/BRO/CPB
MARINE...KRR/BRO/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion