726
FXUS61 KLWX 281917
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel until
11PM EDT tonight. Fog & visibilities were modified to reflect
denser conditions along and east of I-95 on Thursday morning.
Increased wind gusts for Friday afternoon in the wake of the
cold front. Lowered dewpoints slightly for Saturday, with some
mountain regions potentially seeing RH`s in the low 30s. &&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cloudy the rest of the day, with areas of fog on
Thursday morning.
- 2) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week,
with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.
- 3) On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night
through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cloudy the rest of the day, with areas of fog on
Thursday morning.
A weak shortwave disturbance brings intermittent overcast skies to
the Mid-Atlantic today, with increased low-level moisture lending
to a brief period of morning fog and low clouds on Thursday
morning. Warm advection persists through the afternoon as a weak
warm front lifts north along with persistent onshore flow. This will
allow for an increase in dewpoints/moisture on Thursday, before the
disturbance gradually transitions offshore by Friday morning.
Combined with overall light winds, areas of fog could settle in by
early Thursday morning, with some areas seeing reduced visibility
below 5 miles at times. Fog will likely be concentrated along
and east of the I-95 corridor through 14Z, with areas further west
likely seeing overall patchier fog. As the shortwave disturbance
transitions offshore, clouds clear in the afternoon, with warm
afternoon temperatures ranging in the low-to-mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures through the end of
the week, with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.
As the midweek shortwave disturbance transitions offshore,
another brief period of upper-level ridging builds over the Mid-
Atlantic between Thursday afternoon and Friday. Winds could gust up
to 15-20 knots throughout the day on Friday as temperatures range
well above average with afternoon highs in the mid-70s.
An incoming cold front could bring overnight temperatures back down
into the 40s between Friday & Saturday across the metros, with temps
potentially in the upper 30s over the mountains. Saturday will see
increasing cloud cover throughout the day as this front moves
through the region, bringing temperatures back down to more
seasonable daytime ranges in the 60s. No precipitation is
anticipated for most of the weekend as this front slowly begins to
track through into early next week.
KEY MESSAGE 3...On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night
through Tuesday.
High pressure should keep most, if not all, of the region dry
through the heart of the day Sunday. Rain chances could arrive with
an approaching low pressure system Sunday night and linger through
Tuesday. It is too early to tell how much in coverage these showers
will be each period, but some areas may not see any showers at all.
All in all, rain amounts could be light. Temperatures will be
seasonable Sunday, but then inch their way upwards Monday and
Tuesday as a southerly to southwesterly wind brings in slightly
milder air. Highs Sunday in the middle 60s for most locations, then
climb into the upper 60s to near 70 for both Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions have generally returned to VFR this afternoon, with a
shortwave disturbance bringing a few cloud decks to the Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon as it heads towards the coast. Additional low clouds
and fog could develop early Thursday morning, with higher potential
reaching along and east of the I-95 corridor. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly the low clouds develop, so some TAF
sites show borderline IFR/MVFR conditions between 0800Z-1400Z
Thursday depending on this uncertainty. Fog could occasionally bring
visibilities to 1-2SM during this time.
Visibilities return to VFR between 14Z-16Z Thursday, with clouds
generally clearing by the afternoon. Winds flow southerly Thursday
before shifting northwesterly on Friday, with gusts potentially up
to 15-20 knots throughout the day. Winds diminish on Saturday before
shifting southerly again.
VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Light southerly winds
around 5 knots or so Sunday, becoming light and variable southeast
to northeast Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light southeasterly winds through this evening, then shifting
southerly overnight. Winds strengthen to borderline SCA thresholds
Friday & Saturday due to increased vertical mixing over near-
shore/narrower waterways, shifting northwesterly by Friday evening.
Winds diminish by Saturday evening. Up until Friday morning, winds
stay within 5-10 knots.
No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds south
5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming east to northeast 5 to 10 knots
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow Thursday & Friday could push sensitive shorelines close
to flood stage, primarily during the evening tide cycles. A Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued until 11PM this evening for Annapolis
in anticipation of minor flooding that could occur with the high
tide.
Light offshore flow should lower tidal anomalies on Saturday before
winds shift again on Sunday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KLW/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion