258
FXUS61 KLWX 020747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with a
chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm Tuesday.

2) Temperatures increase late in the week while a strong cold
front brings widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue through
Wednesday with a chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm
Tuesday.

A sharpening trough and resultant piece of weak shortwave
energy looks to push across the area later this morning into
the afternoon, which may result in a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This threat will be brief and mainly tied to the
mountains given better lift (aided by orographic effects).
Precipitation will be limited with most seeing nothing at all.

Meanwhile, coastal low pressure will track up along the
Southeast US coast and toward the Carolinas Wednesday before
pushing out to sea Thursday. This is due in part to broad
1024-1028 mb high pressure shunting south from the Great Lakes
region. In turn, expect below normal temperatures to continue
with highs today in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows
tonight will fall back into the 40s and 50s. The warming trend
ensues Wednesday as high pressure settles overhead. Expect highs
back closer to normal with many locations pushing 80 degrees.
Humidity will remain low along with little to no rain through
the midweek period.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures increase late in the week while a
strong cold front brings widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms late this weekend.

Upper-level ridging will persist into Friday and Saturday, causing
further warming throughout the region with afternoon highs in the
low 90s. However, conditions should remain dry with dewpoints likely
remaining fairly steady, keeping the heat index close to the actual
air temperature. Rain chances remain minimal through this period
with relatively light WSW winds.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough is expected to form over the
Great Lakes over the weekend and then slowly track through the
Northeast region. A strong cold front stemming from this system will
travel through the Mid-Atlantic, causing widespread chances for rain
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms between Sunday and
Monday. Uncertainty still remains high with this system, as the
synoptic setup and timing still diverges significantly between the
GFS, ECMWF, and the ICON models. Overall, the timing of this front
has trended later into the weekend over the past several model
runs, and severe probabilities remain low as of this time.
Temperatures likely remain above normal until the front eventually
passes offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A spotty shower or thunderstorm could form this afternoon west
of MRB/SHD, although the greatest chance is over the central
Appalachians (i.e. KLWB/KBKW). Winds pivot back to the north or
northeast tonight into Wednesday with VFR conditions
prevailing.

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure
dominates the region.

Beginning Sunday, widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms could bring reduced conditions across terminals
through Monday. Winds generally flow west to southwest before
shifting northerly Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
Some wind gusts around 20 kts are still occurring over the
central Bay waters, but have subsided everywhere else. SCAs
remain in effect there through mid-morning.

High pressure moving overhead through mid-week and into Thursday
will generally lead to sub-SCA winds for all waters.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible Friday evening through
early Saturday morning, then again on Sunday evening as a trough
moves through the region along with scattered rain showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. Winds generally flow southwesterly
through Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will likely rise again through this evening, the
magnitude of which will depend on the position and strength of
low pressure developing off the coast. Additional minor tidal
flooding is most probable at Annapolis with Wednesday morning`s
high tide, but will monitor any potential quicker water rises
given the return of onshore flow tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/EST/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion