653
FXUS61 KLWX 121457
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
957 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Special Weather Statements for advection fog expired at 1300 UTC
for counties within the Beltway. A Marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms was issued by SPC for Cecil County later today. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County
between 2100-0300 UTC; please refer to the Tides & Coastal
Flood section for additional details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain showers & perhaps a thunderstorm or two are possible
  today, with the first snow for parts of the Alleghenies today
  through Saturday.

- 2) Cooler temperatures and dry condtions expected into
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain showers & perhaps a thunderstorm or two
are possible today, with the first snow for parts of the Alleghenies
today through Saturday.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected today into
early this evening as low pressure tracks across the area. A
low-end chance for a severe thunderstorm around northeast
Maryland (mainly within Cecil County) exists for early this
afternoon, with surface CAPE ranging up to 1000-1200 J/kg as a
band of showers moves through the region. Dry PWATs and somewhat
elevated shear means that isolated hail or a short-lived weak
tornado cannot be ruled out during this timeframe, although most
areas will see non-severe shower activity.

A cold front will shift east of the area
after 00Z tonight, with brisk NW winds developing and
temperatures falling from the low 60s into the mid 50s by early
evening and into the mid 40s by daybreak Fri. Across the higher
elevations, temperatures will fall much more quickly into the
upper 20s or low 30s by Fri morning. Off and on snow showers are
anticipated across the mountains late tonight into Sunday
morning. Despite plenty of cold air to support snow, snow
accumulations have continued to trend downward as a result of
unfavorable low-level trajectories. This still looks like a
light snow event of 1 to 2 inches falling over a 24-hr period,
which does not meet the criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory.
Elsewhere, light rainfall accumulations of a tenth to two tenths
of an inch are expected, mainly this afternoon.

Continued brisk conditions are expected into Monday with plenty
of stratocumulus clouds during the daytime hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures and dry condtions expected into
the middle of next week.

Longwave troughing will remain over the east coast through early
next week, although heights will start rising Monday as the
amplified upper level pattern slowly progresses eastward.
Likewise, low level trajectories will gradually become less
favorable for upslope snow showers Sunday. Winds should be much
less noticeable by Monday and Tuesday as the surface high
finally reaches the Mid Atlantic, although temperatures remain
below normal. Given the lighter winds, the subsequent nights
could turn out colder in many areas, with widespread near or
below freezing temperatures outside of the urban centers and
tidal shoreline.

Further upper level amplification will likely happen toward mid
week. While a trough or low could develop toward the southeast
coast, it appears that ridging will dominate the Mid Atlantic. This
should start a warming trend beginning Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Patchy to dense advection fog has lifted for the most part as of
15Z this morning, and VSBYs should continue to improve through
the morning save for periodic rain showers/thunderstorms that
move through. Scattered to numerous light showers are expected
today into early this evening, mainly in the 18Z Thu - 00Z Fri
time frame. No flight restrictions are currently expected, but
cigs will be BKN-OVC around 4kft. Winds will shift to the NW
after 00Z Fri and pick up speed with gusts to 20 kt. Winds
strengthen further Fri and Sat with better mixing with gusts to
around 30 kt expected. BKN- OVC stratocumulus deck is expected
Fri-Sun during the day.

Northwest winds may gust up to 25 kt Sunday, then become lighter
Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected both days.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will strengthen this evening after frontal passage with
frequent gusts to 20 kt expected. Winds strengthen further Fri
into Sat with gusts to 30 kt expected.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in northwest flow
through probably Monday. Winds will start decreasing Sunday
night and Monday as high pressure nears, although marginal
advisory conditions may persist along the bay for a time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Action Stages are likely tonight before winds shift to
northwest behind a cold front this evening. Annapolis is now
forecast to reach minor coastal flooding with the high tide this
evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory has thus been issued for Anne
Arundel County until 0300 UTC. A strong frontal passage will
bring a prolonged period of blowout tides Friday and through
early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday
     for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EST Friday for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/EST/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST/SRT
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion