991
FXUS61 KLWX 252045
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly track across the area today. A cold
front will surge southward tonight. An area of low pressure will
traverse the boundary Friday as it stalls across the Ohio
Valley and Carolinas. A second wave of low pressure will drive a
stronger cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday.
The next frontal system may approach during the middle of next
week ahead of the start of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The latest surface analysis places a wave of low pressure just
west of the D.C. metro. Attached to this cyclone is a warm
front lifting toward the Northern Neck of Virginia with a
stationary boundary arcing westward along the Ohio/Kentucky
border. Behind this system, the earlier cloud cover and showers
have quickly scoured out. This has yielded abundant sunshine on
this mild Christmas Day. Given the increased solar insolation,
current temperature trends have generally exceeded the initial
forecast package. As such, highs should largely top out in the
mid 50s to low 60s. There will even be some spotty mid 60s along
the I-64 corridor as well as back across the Shenandoah Valley.
The usual cool spot is across the Allegheny Front where highs
should reach the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tranquil conditions persist into the evening hours while skies
quickly cloud up through the night. This is in response to the
next weather maker which slides across the Great Lakes region.
At the same time, a broad dome of high pressure treks from
Ontario to Quebec. The resultant surge of dry northerly winds
will set the stages for a wintry mix on Friday. Until then,
expect thickening overnight clouds with lows upper 20s to around
freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The synoptic setup here will certainly favor a mixed wintry
precipitation event. Well above average 500-mb heights are in
place, generally averaging around 558-564 dm. Subtle height
falls graze the area as this trough passes by to the north.
With the mild air in the large-scale column, the low-levels will
feature a near-freezing air mass owing to this dome of Canadian
high pressure to the north. This thermodynamic profile supports
a combination of freezing rain and sleet which will depend on
how deep/elevated the warm nose is. Consequently, a slew of
winter headline products have been issued on this shift.
While temperatures could be marginal at the onset of this event,
the sizeable dewpoint depressions suggest wet-bulbing effects
will help usher temperatures to around freezing. Initially,
activity reaches the Allegheny Front during the early/mid
morning hours before spreading toward the I-81 corridor by the
late morning. Eventually locations off to the east will see this
mixed bag of precipitation during the midday to early afternoon
hours. One notable trend over the past 24 hours has been the
decreasing precipitation amounts between I-81 and the Chesapeake
Bay. Likely driven by the west-northwesterly advection, total
precipitation amounts may stay in the trace to 0.10 inch range
in this particular region. This would of course have an impact
on overall freezing rain/sleet totals. Precipitable water values
are fairly high (~0.75 inches), but the limited forcing and less
than optimal low-level flow offsets some of this potential.
Nonetheless, if precipitation falls, it will likely come in the
form of freezing rain and/or sleet.
A plethora of Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
areas well north of I-66/U.S. 50 for the mixture of freezing
rain and sleet. The threat for accumulating sleet is more likely
across northeastern Maryland based on reviewing multiple
forecast soundings. Additionally, an Ice Storm Warning is in
effect for eastern Garrett and western Allegany counties for
Friday into Friday night given the threat of 0.20 to 0.30 inches
of ice accretions. Overall, conditions within these advisories
and warnings will be hazardous to travel, particularly on any
untreated surfaces. Off to the south toward I-81/U.S. 50, except
the Blue Ridge, conditions are more marginal as temperatures
stay slightly above freezing and precipitation amounts are even
lighter. Will continue to monitor to see if any southward
expansion is necessary. Otherwise, the threat winds down into
the night before tapering off into a light drizzle or freezing
drizzle along/east of I-95. Temperatures on Friday will be
chilly while holding steady in the 30s. The warm spot is
expected across western portions of Garrett, Grant, and
Pendleton counties as a downsloping flow in the evening aids in
an abrupt warming. Forecast highs push into the low/mid 40s in
these spots.
After seeing morning lows in the 30s (near freezing closer to
the Mason-Dixon Line), temperatures should gradually rebound on
Saturday. There will be plenty of cloud cover across the region,
but with some late day clearing possible across central Virginia
westward into the Potomac Highlands region. Morning clouds and
drizzle will likely stunt warming the most along/east of I-95.
Forecast highs are in the upper 30s to 40s for those along/north
of I-66/U.S. 50, with readings near 60 degrees along I-64. A
seasonably cool night lies ahead with lows ranging from the
upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low pressure system will track northwest of the area across the
Great Lakes on Sunday, with the associated frontal boundaries
pushing through the forecast area Sunday and Monday. The associated
warm front lifts north through the region on Sunday, with
precipitation chances increasing through the day. High temperatures
will gradually warm Sunday and Monday in the warm sector with highs
in the 40s to 50s on Sunday warming to 50s to low 60s on Monday.
Beneficial rainfall continues into Monday as the cold front moves
through. In the wake of the front, wintry precipitation is possible
along the Alleghenies Monday evening. The big story will be gusty
northwest winds behind the front. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30
knots areawide with higher elevations nearing or exceeding Wind
Advisory criteria.
Winds begin diminishing Tuesday as surface high pressure builds to
the southwest through midweek. Outside of lingering upslope snow
showers, dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
noticeably cooler temperatures. High temperatures rise into the 30s
to low 40s each day with higher elevations staying in the 20s.
Overnight lows drop into the teens and 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds have quickly scoured out behind a frontal system with
mainly northwesterly winds occurring in the wake. Occasional
gusts up to 20 knots are possible given ample vertical mixing.
Winds eventually shift to northerly this evening into tonight as
high pressure settles over Quebec. Further wind shifts are
expected into Friday ahead of the next weather maker.
Mainly east to southeasterly winds are likely on Friday with
precipitation reaching most terminals during the late morning to
early afternoon hours. KCHO will be far enough south to stay
clear of any wintry precipitation. Otherwise, have painted a
freezing rain/sleet mix for all remaining TAF sites, generally
within the 18Z-23Z window. This will likely last longer around
KBWI and KMTN as precipitation will be ongoing. Restrictions are
likely at times given the wintry mix and possibly lower ceilings
shown in the PROB30 groups. In the wake of this event on Friday
night, ceilings are likely to lower to IFR/MVFR overnight with
light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Restrictions may linger into
Saturday morning across the eastern-most terminals before
improvements occur within the increasing northerly winds.
A low pressure system tracks to the west with the associated frontal
boundaries bringing rain to the terminals on Sunday. Reduced
visibilities and ceilings are possible during precipitation.
Southerly winds on Sunday gust around 15 knots. Winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front Monday morning with winds gusting 20
to 30 knots through the afternoon and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Occasional northwesterly gusts to around 20 knots are occurring
over northern/middle sections of the tidal Potomac and
Chesapeake Bay. As such, Marine Weather Statements have been
issued until Small Craft Advisories go into effect after
sundown. Most waters will see northerly gusts to around 20 knots
through the evening and into the overnight hours. By Friday,
gradients weaken with forecast gusts staying below advisory
levels. The northern waters could see a wintry mix Friday
afternoon into the early overnight hours which may impact those
out on the waterways. By Saturday, a shift to northerlies are
expected with some channeling effects possible at times over the
wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories may
be needed for this surge.
Southerly winds stay below SCA criteria throughout the day on
Sunday, before increasing overnight as a cold front moves through.
Winds shift to northwest with Small Craft Advisories likely
beginning Sunday night through Monday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday
for MDZ008-507-508.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Friday for
MDZ003-502.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EST
Friday night for MDZ004>006-011-503-505-506.
Ice Storm Warning from 8 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
MDZ501-510.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
MDZ509.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Friday for
VAZ027-028-030-031-507.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EST
Friday night for VAZ505.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Friday for
WVZ050>053-055-502>504.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
WVZ501.
MARINE...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday
for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion