070
FXUS61 KLWX 251925
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and showery conditions will persist through Wednesday.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday
  through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cloudy and showery conditions will persist
through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Weak cold front extending from New England southwestward to
southwest PA will slowly drop into the area tonight before
stalling across central VA Tuesday. Scattered to numerous light
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will continue across the area
this afternoon into early this evening, before dissipating
later tonight. Areas of drizzle/mist and dense fog are likely to
re-develop late tonight/early Tue.

More showers and/or t-storms are likely Tue and Wed afternoons
on either side of the front as it remains nearly stationary.
Things repeat itself Tue night with more drizzle and areas of
dense fog possible.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday
through the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Model guidance is in good agreement that an upper trough will dive
southward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, while a sprawling
area of high pressure builds to our northwest over the Great Lakes.
Northerly winds ahead of the approaching high will transport much
drier air into the region, leading to mostly sunny skies by
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to
near 80, and dewpoints will drop from the 60s into the 50s, making
it feel less humid.

Thereafter, dry conditions are expected to persist through the
weekend, along with below normal temperatures. High temperatures are
generally forecast to be in the 70s, with low temperatures in the
50s. The only slight chance for a shower or two will be on Saturday
or Sunday, depending on the eventual track of a reinforcing upper
trough/closed low. Most solutions favor that closed low tracking to
our north across New England, but if it were to track a bit further
south, a brief shower or two can`t be ruled out. For now it looks
like the only impact from this system will be an uptick in cloud
cover on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Off and on showers this afternoon and evening with MVFR cigs.
Areas of drizzle and dense fog overnight with VLIFR/LIFR cigs
and vsbys. After fog burns out Tue, more showers are possible
again Tue and Wed afternoons. Winds will remain light below 10
kt.

VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Winds
will be out of the north on Thursday, and then light out of the
northwest on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Isolated thunderstorms expected across the southern waters,
mainly south of Drum Point. Winds will remain below 10 kt
through Wed evening, then begin to strengthen late Wed night and
Thu with SCA conditions possible.

Northerly gusts may near low-end SCA levels during the day on
Thursday. Light and variable winds are expected over the waters on
Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion