460
FXUS61 KLWX 040134
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory issued for late tonight/Monday morning
along the bay and Monday afternoon for the middle/upper tidal
Potomac.

Adjusted temperatures downward slightly in outlying areas due to
light winds and low dew points. However, a notable area of mid
and high level clouds associated with a shortwave trough will be
moving overhead for a large portion of the night. Thus any
threat for frost should be patchy in nature. Most locations will
fall to the upper 30s and 40s for lows.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms
     midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings widespread showers and
thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

A shortwave trough passing through to the north could bring a few
residual showers to the area on Tuesday, primarily north of the I-66
corridor. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough centered over the
Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring significantly more widespread
chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the region as it
moves through the area between Wednesday and Thursday. As of right
now, early QPF estimates are forecasting 0.50-1.50 inches of rain in
the area by Thursday, which would be extremely beneficial given
widespread drought concerns that have impacted the region for some
time now. As for severe wx potential, the trends past 24 hours have
shown the second area of low pressure staying south of the area
across southern VA keeping the area in the cool sector minimizing
the severe risk.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. Winds
southwest and light overnight. Winds becoming southwest 10 to 15
knots gusts up to 20 knots Monday. Winds southwest 15 to 20
knots gusts 25 knots Tuesday. Any shower activity should be
isolated Monday and Tuesday and mainly near MRB.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday could bring sub-
VFR conditions across terminals for longer periods of time.
Winds southwest 10 to 20 knots gusts up to 25 knots Wednesday.
Winds southwest becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds will quickly pivot to south-southwest tonight with a
low level jet moving overhead. With the residual cold airmass
over warmer waters, this should result in some channeling the
second half of the night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
along the bay and lower Potomac from 2 AM until 11 AM. As
temperatures warm and mixing increases Monday afternoon, wind
gusts will increase inland. Have issued a SCA for only the
middle and upper tidal Potomac for now, but additional zones may
need to be added. Southerly channeling will increase along the
bay Monday night, but it`s possible all waters may need an SCA.

SCA conditions likely Tuesday and Wednesday and could continue
through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies rise tonight into Monday morning, with
sensitive tidal locations (Annapolis) nearing minor flood
stage during the high tide cycle Monday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion