168
FXUS61 KLWX 011955
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
255 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation onset has trended quicker Monday with a little bit
more snow expected now.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A light wintry mix may lead to slippery travel, primarily
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
- A warming trend will develop Wednesday and continue through
Saturday. Rain showers could occur periodically, but
confidence is low that they will be very impactful at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A light wintry mix may lead to slippery travel, primarily
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Not a lot of change from previous thinking, other than
increased confidence in a period of light snow Monday
morning/early afternoon across central and southwest areas with
a first wave of precipitation. Precip with this first wave
should stay south of I-70. With temperatures reaching into the
mid 30s and strong early March insolation, any snow should only
accumulate on grassy surfaces. The only exception will be across
the higher elevations of Skyline Drive and Highland County
where sub-advisory snow (1-2 inches) is expected.
A lull in precip seems likely late Monday afternoon and evening.
A second wave of precipitation is expected to move in after
midnight Monday night. Warming aloft will lead to all precip
turning into mixed precip with any icing probably confined to
areas west of I-95 and mainly over elevated surfaces or higher
elevations. Retreating high should allow for sfc temperatures to
quickly rise above freezing by midday Tue, although `in-situ`
damming may keep temps locked in near freezing through Tue
morning. By Tue afternoon, temps should climb above freezing
with rain expected for the remainder of the afternoon, although
it should start shifting north of the area anyway. At this time,
any wintry impacts across the forecast area are expected to
remain below warning criteria, but winter weather advisories for
wintry mix may still be required across some areas late tonight
or Monday morning, particularly across the higher elevations of
the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend will develop Wednesday and continue through
Saturday. Rain showers could occur periodically, but confidence
is low that they will be very impactful at this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As we move into the middle of the week, a substantial pattern
shift will take place across the entire CONUS. Upper- level
ridging, which had been over the west coast, will shift to the
east coast. Ensemble guidance for 500mb heights are in the 1.5
to 2 sigma range towards the end of the week into next weekend.
This should yield temperatures that are well above average for
this time of year. The presence of a lingering warm front nearby
could lend some uncertainty with just how warm we get, but
assuming it does clear to our north, temperatures well into the
70s are certainly in play by Thursday. Saturday could be the
warmest day of the period, with highs perhaps nearing 80.
However, if the front does not clear to our north, but rather
lingers nearby, daily showers and cooler temperatures can be
expected for portions of the region along/north of this
boundary. This would be most likely along the MD/PA border, and
less likely over central VA into southern MD. Still too early to
be sure what will happen, but a majority of model guidance
favors the warmer solutions at this time.
By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching from the west, but still
too early to tell if it will push through by then or not. Timing and
intensity will be a big question mark in the coming days, but not
likely to see any significant impacts from this system at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing clouds late tonight into early Monday with light snow
developing after daybreak south of BWI with periods of IFR/MVFR
cigs. Only a trace of accumulation is expected. A lull in precip
is likely late Mon afternoon into Mon evening with wintry mix
moving in early Tue morning before precip turns into all rain by
Tue afternoon.
VFR conditions expected for the most part Wednesday through Thursday
night. Low confidence in areas of light rain with passing warm
fronts, low pressure systems, and cold fronts each period.
However, if a backdoor cold front forms in either period, we
could see brief periods of IFR or LIFR due to drizzle, rain, or
fog. Winds generally south to southwest 5 to 10 knots each
period. If a backdoor cold front forms, then northeastern
terminals could receive a northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots
any period.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue through tonight and peak Monday
morning before winds beging to diminish Monday afternoon.
Another period of SCA conditions is possible Tue afternoon and
Tue night.
No marine hazards Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds generally
south to southwest 5 to 10 knots each period. A backdoor front could
bring northeast winds 5 to 10 knots any period along with reduced
visibility in fog and rain.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion