947
FXUS61 KLWX 161420
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1020 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for Annapolis until 11PM EDT
tonight. Issued an additional Coastal Flood Advisory for
Alexandria until 2PM EDT today. See the Tides & Coastal Flood
section below for more information.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for
  severe weather, and below average temperatures.

- 2) Dry conditions through next week with temperatures
  returning to mid-October normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential
for severe weather, and below average temperatures.

Model guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a potent,
positively-tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes down
towards the Great Plains tracking eastward throughout the day
today. At the surface, the trough pushes a strong cold front
across the forecast area this afternoon and into the evening.
Clouds may briefly clear for a period late this morning and
afternoon before additional clouds move in from the incoming cold
front later today. Highs today rise into the 80s for most with
higher elevations staying in the 70s. With warm conditions and
sunny skies, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along the passing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has
much of the area east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins and north of
US-50/I-66 in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather, driven primarily by a risk of damaging wind gusts. The
highest probabilities are in the vicinity of NE MD (30% probs).
Additionally, a quick QLCS tornado is possible, mainly in NE MD,
where SPC also has a 2% tornado risk.

Precipitation lingers behind the cold front as the upper trough
pivots overhead tonight. Gusty winds remain possible beginning
this evening and persisting through Saturday. Winds will likely
remain elevated across most of the area, although the higher
elevations along the Alleghenies may have the highest peak
gusts (between 30 and 40 mph). All areas are expected to remain
below Wind Advisory criteria, although a few isolated gusts
to near 45 mph are possible along the highest ridges.

Noticeably cooler temperatures rush in behind the front with
high temperatures on Saturday being approximately 25-30 degrees
colder compared to today. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s
and 50s across the forecast area with overnight lows dropping
into the 30s to low 40s. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for
early Sunday morning, mainly west of I-95 where winds will be
lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions through next week with temperatures
returning to mid-October normals.

Heading into next week, high pressure remains overhead through the
middle of the week. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected
during this time with near normal temperatures for mid-October.
Although several global ensemble members depict a coastal low
forming off the Mid-Atlantic shore early next week, most members
maintain dry and seasonable weather. If this low pressure
system were to move closer to the coast, chances for
precipitation could change next week, but confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR to IFR ceilings continue through this morning before
conditions improve quickly to VFR. A strong cold front crosses
the terminals this afternoon and into this evening, bringing a
chance for thunderstorms, gusty winds and a wind shift. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible during storms. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds as the primary threat. Low clouds are
possible again tonight with VFR conditions returning Saturday.
For the winds, southwest winds this morning shift to northwest
in the wake of the cold front. Winds remain out of the northwest
on Saturday, gusting 20 to 30 knots. Winds diminish on Sunday
with VFR conditions expected.

VFR conditions are expected to persist for all terminals at the
beginning of next week. Light northeasterly wind on Monday shift
northerly by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all waters with S
winds gusting 20 knots. A strong cold front crosses the waters
this afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusty W/NW winds
and a chance for thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings are
possible as storms cross the waters later today. Winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front tonight and increase with gusts
around 35 knots. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale
Warning for late tonight through Saturday for the wider waters.
Winds shift to northeast on Sunday and are expected to remain
below SCA criteria.

Wind gusts remain below SCA criteria on Monday with light
northeasterly winds. Northerly winds could approach SCA criteria on
Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow has resulted in rising water levels this morning,
with threshold minor flooding at Annapolis and Alexandria.
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for these sites until
11PM and 2PM EDT, respectively. Havre de Grace could come close
to minor, as well.

A cold front will shift winds to the west and northwest
resulting in decreasing water levels this evening. At this time,
Annapolis is forecasted to reach minor flooding again in the
next tide cycle, and Alexandria and Havre de Grace could become
close as well. Will continue to monitor and issue additional
advisories as necessary.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ532>534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/SRT/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/SRT/KVH
MARINE...AVS/SRT/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion