126
FXUS61 KLWX 221746
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
146 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have increased Friday afternoon. Likely convective
so isolated to scattered in nature.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warming temperatures mid to late week as a cold front
  drops into the area and stalls.

- 2) Cooler air moves in this weekend, along with chances for
  showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures mid to late week as a cold
front drops into the area and stalls.

A cold front will move south today. Rain showers have been lack
luster in terms of QPF thus far today, which was expected.
Cannot rule out a few additional showers in the metros to
southern MD/central VA this afternoon/evening.

Otherwise through the rest of the week, a warming trend in
temps expected even after today`s front drops through the area
and stalls just to our south. High temps could push back into
the lower to middle 80s by Fri ahead of another system likely
to bring a return of rain showers Fri afternoon and evening.
Guidance has trended up in terms of QPF/coverage Fri
afternoon/evening, but still expect isolated to scattered in
coverage. There is a little bit of instability, so cannot rule
out a stronger storm but parboiled of severe storms is rather
low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler air moves in this weekend, along with
chances for showers.

Widespread rain showers expected Sat as a weakening disturbance
moves in. Does appear to be weaker as it moves across the FA
with better forcing to the north. Precip is higher amount the
EPS members than the GEFS/GEPS. Will continue to monitor.

There`s still some uncertainty with respect to the ultimate
positioning of the front, and as a result, there`s still a wide
range of potential temps. Locations on the warm side of the
boundary may approach 70, while locations on the cool side will
likely be stuck in the 40s and 50s. Chances for cooler
conditions will be greater off to the north and east, while
chances for warmer temps will increase toward the southwest.
Chances for showers decrease further on Mon, with temps
expected to fall near seasonable levels (highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s). Another round of rain possible Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Fri. Cannot rule out a pop up
shower this afternoon causing brief restrictions. Gusts will
remain between 15 to 20 kts at the TAF sites. Winds will be out
of the NW on Thu, but lighter.

Additional WAA showers are possible by Fri afternoon which
could be accompanied by a few restrictions and gusty winds.

Sub-VFR ceilings appear likely on Saturday, along with easterly
winds and showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected this afternoon through Fri
with winds out of the SW to NW as a cold front crosses and
stalls. A few showers this afternoon over the waters.

Sub-SCA levels with NW to E/NE winds are expected over the
waters Thu/Fri. SCA-level gusts appear possible in easterly
flow on Sat.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/CPB
AVIATION...KLW/CPB
MARINE...KLW/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion