917
FXUS61 KLWX 191933
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and possible thunderstorms return Sunday.

- 2) Rain showers & cooler temperatures persist into midweek ahead of
     drier conditions next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and possible thunderstorms return
Sunday.

Fair weather is expected through this evening. Low overcast
conditions are expected to develop late this evening and through
the overnight as moisture advection develops atop a shallow cool
layer on SE winds. By daybreak, expect showers to move into
western Maryland and track southeast across the area. A second
round of afternoon showers is expected to move in from the
Appalachian region and southern Pennsylvania. A few
thunderstorms are possible along Interstate 64 in central
Virginia, but severe wx appears unlikely. Showers will continue
into the evening along a frontal zone before dissipating or
shifting south late Sunday night.

Light rain or off and on showers will persist through Tue
morning, particularly along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains
in areas of onshore flow. Expect a noticeable cooling trend
beginning Monday in the wake of the cold front late Sunday
night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain showers & cooler temperatures persist into
midweek ahead of drier conditions next weekend.

Mid-level moisture overhead will coincide with an area of low
pressure just off the East Coast tracking north on Wednesday. Weak
instability at the surface will suppress thunderstorm activity for
the most part, but expect rain showers to continue through Wednesday
and Thursday as shortwave disturbances continue to track across
tShowers and possible thunderstorms return Sunday.he Mid-
Atlantic. High temperatures continue to range in the 60s as
these disturbances move through.

As the coastal low skirts the Mid-Atlantic coastline, winds will
be elevated Wednesday and Thursday with wind gusts between 20-30 MPH
possible, especially along the Chesapeake Bay. Winds could
potentially be higher over the waters, and this onshore flow
combined with stronger tidal influence could increase coastal flood
risk during this period. Refer to the coastal flooding section below
for more details.

As this system tracks north towards the end of the week, winds along
the coastline should gradually decrease. Mid-level dry air moves in
overhead from the Midwest, which should lead to diminishing rainfall
potential heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Low overcast conditions/MVFR cigs are expected to develop late
this evening and continue through midday Sunday. Sunday will
feature two rounds of showers, one in the morning, and one in
the afternoon toward evening. Any thunderstorms would be
confined to KCHO. Monday and Tuesday will feature low overcast
conditions with flight restrictions likely.

Intermittent sub-VFR conditions could persist into Wednesday &
Thursday as scattered showers continue throughout the region. Gusty
winds between 20-25 knots are possible on Thursday. Winds flow from
northeasterly to northerly by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will flirt with SCA across the Chesapeake Bay waters
through Monday night. A more definite upward trend is seen
starting late Monday night through the middle of the week when
additional advisories will be needed.

North to northeasterly Wind gusts remain elevated through Wednesday
and Thursday as an area of low pressure remains off the East Coast.
Showers & a couple of thunderstorms are possible over the waters
during this period. As this system begins to track north late in the
week, winds should begin to decrease heading into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County.
CBOFS guidance seems like the only guidance performing well with
the elevated water levels and showing the rapid response due to
the onshore flow.

Onshore flow will persist through at least the middle of next
week with water levels remaining elevated with minor coastal
flooding expected at times of high tide. At this time, the risk
of moderate coastal flooding seems low.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Sunday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion