784
FXUS61 KLWX 141341
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
841 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made a small upward adjustment to sky cover and winds for this
afternoon, as well as mentioned a few scattered sprinkles or
flurries north of US-50 and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Brisk conditions expected through this weekend with
scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.
- 2) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures continue
through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brisk conditions expected through this weekend
with scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.
With the core of an upper low set up to our northeast, flow
aloft has now turned out of the NNW. The surface low is now well
offshore, but the pressure gradient between this and an
approaching surface high form the west will keep winds elevated
throughout the day today and Sunday. Scattered snow showers are
being observed with a few streamers moving off of Lake Erie and
into our western mountains. Additional rounds of snow showers
are expected at times through Sunday morning. Highest chances
for accumulation will likely be focused near western Garrett
County and surrounding areas, with up to an additional 0.5"
accumulation possible.
As the broad system gradually tracks offshore, clouds may be slow to
clear during the weekend until the start of next week. In the wake
of the system`s stemming cold front, temperatures will be noticeably
colder over the next several days along with gusty winds that will
persist through the weekend, creating overall brisk conditions
outside. Daily highs through the weekend range in the 40s and 50s,
with cooler temperatures over the mountains, as well as strong
northwesterly winds gusting up to 20-30 knots at times, potentially
stronger at high elevations. Overnight, temperatures range in the
20s and 30s. Overall, expect nighttime freezing to near-freezing
temperatures to persist over the next several days, with winds
diminishing sometime between late Sunday and Monday.
The 2026 growing season has concluded. Therefore, no further
Frost/Freeze headlines will be issued until Spring 2027.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
continue through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.
Looking at a quiescent weather pattern for much of the new
workweek. No hazardous weather is expected with dry conditions
and moderating temperatures. The upper-level trough will exit
east of the area Monday with a building upper-level ridge as
surface high pressure pushes east from the Ohio River Valley.
1032-1036 mb high pressure will meander west of the area Monday
before shunting south toward west-central VA and southwest VA
midweek. The high will drift offshore Thursday into Friday
leading to further warming into the upcoming weekend as the
ridge continues to build.
As a result, expect winds to decrease substantially from what
we saw over the weekend as the high settles nearby. Temperatures
will remain below normal under north to northwesterly flow
through Tuesday before winds shift to the west and south late
next week. Given the surface high nearby and lighter winds at
the surface, expect several nights of ample radiational cooling.
This will lead to widespread lows near or below freezing
outside of the urban centers and tidal shorelines.
High temperatures will push back into the mid to upper 50s Monday
(40s mountains), then mid to upper 60s late next week. Dry
conditions will persist through the weekend despite a potential
trough/low pressure system developing in the vicinity of
southeast U.S. coast.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds turn gusty again today, peaking up to 25-30 knots in the
afternoon for most TAF sites (slightly lighter at CHO). Gusts
up to 20 knots remain possible through Sunday afternoon before
diminishing by Monday. A stratocu deck around 5kft will persist
most of the weekend, though may tend to scatter out near CHO.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday through Friday next
week. Winds will taper out of the north and northwest Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will switch
back to the west and eventually south/southwest late week with
speeds (including gusts) generally less than 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Expect wind gusts up to 20-30 knots to persist through Sunday
afternoon. Additional SCAs may be necessary through Monday
morning depending on how slow winds are to diminish. Winds
generally flow northwesterly through this period.
SCAs will likely continue for portions of the waters through
Monday with sub-SCA level conditions returning Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure settles nearby.
No marine hazards are expected mid to late week. Winds will
remain out of the north and northwest Monday into Tuesday before
turning west to south late week at less than 15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Much colder air will move in over the next few days in the wake
of a departing low pressure to our northeast. This will result
in intermittent upslope snow showers in the Allegheny Mountains
through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, brisk winds will continue
through Monday with waves of clouds. Temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday while high pressure gradually
builds overhead into the middle of next week.
Over the next several days, breezy conditions will continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the valleys.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps closer to
the upper 20s in the typical dry spots.
Winds will begin to taper off Monday, but RHs will remain low,
and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not be surprised if
early next week has a day that needs closer attention.
No rain is expected through at least the end of next week.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/EST/SRT
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/DHOF
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion