346
FXUS61 KLWX 311400
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some very light snow may make a run at a small portion of
central Virginia to southern Maryland (near Wintergreen and
into southern Nelson County as well as southern Saint Mary`s
County) this afternoon into tonight. As north to northeast winds
increasing tonight, a few bay effect flurries or a snow shower
are possible in southern Maryland.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerously cold wind chills expected tonight into Sunday
morning. New Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings
are in effect.
- A slow warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday with
the first day of above freezing temperatures in more than a
week expected on Tuesday.
- Chance of light snow still possible late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, mainly across the southern half of the
forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold wind chills expected tonight into Sunday
morning. New Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings
are in effect.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Brisk N winds will be increasing today through tonight peaking
in strength Sunday morning with gusts around 35 mph. This when
combined with temperatures in the single digits will result in
dangerously cold wind chills of 10 to 20 below.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A slow warming trend is expected Sunday through
Tuesday with the first day of above freezing temperatures in
more than a week expected on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Assuming temperatures don`t rise above freezing until Tuesday,
both Baltimore and Washington DC would have the longest stretch
of below freezing temperatures since 1989 and would become the
third and fourth longest stretch of below freezing temperatures
at Washington DC and Baltimore respectively since their period
of records began in 1872.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of light snow still possible late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, mainly across the southern half of
the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
00Z ECMWF run from Friday was a strong outlier with the latest
00Z Sat runs from the global models showing a weak and fast low
pressure system passing south across southern VA or the
Carolinas. Overall, the trend the past 24 hrs has been for a
faster, weaker system with light snow arriving late Tue night
and quickly exiting the area by daybreak Wed, assuming the
precip reaches this far north. The best chance of any
accumulation seems to be over the southern half of the forecast
area. Turning colder again for the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Brisk N winds will be the main impact to terminals today and
Sunday with gusts peaking in strength to around 30 knots on
Sunday. Dangerously cold wind chills will also be a major impact
to ground operations at all airports.
Light snow is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
potentially causing cigs and vsby restrictions, mainly at KCHO.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale-force winds expected tonight through Sunday evening.
Freezing Spray Advisories and a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning are
in effect for the wider waters that still remain unfrozen. A
Warning is in effect south of Drum Point where the winds will be
stronger and waves higher due to a longer fetch. Winds should
drop below SCA by Monday evening. A new round of SCA is likely
Wed afternoon through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As low pressure rapidly strengthens offshore tonight through
Sunday, strong northerly winds may lead to blowout tide
conditions. Some guidance indicates tides as low as 2 to 3 ft
below MLLW (lowest Sunday). Due to widespread ice buildup, this
could result in some property damage (docks, moorings, etc.) as
blocks of ice are pushed away from the shore.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for DCZ001.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ039-
040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-
506-526-527.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
for VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for WVZ051>053.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
for WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST Sunday
night for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ531-535-536-538-539.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ531>533-537-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion