100
FXUS61 KLWX 031930
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
230 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Wednesday forecast looks cooler than previous forecast
packages advertised. Leaned more heavily on the colder solutions
which is supportive of the expected northeasterly flow regime.
The best chance to see warmer conditions would be near/south of
I-64. Otherwise, the forecast in the longer term looks unsettled
with temperature details driven by where the meandering front
zone resides.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Additional waves of showers are likely to move across the
  area this evening into tonight, and again on Wednesday.

- 2) Temperatures warm by the end of the week, continuing into
  the weekend and early next week. This comes with daily
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional waves of showers are likely to move
across the area this evening into tonight, and again on
Wednesday.

Any threat for light freezing rain has waned as temperatures
have risen into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area. The
batch of precipitation which moved through this morning has now
tracked across the Chesapeake Bay into the Eastern Shore. Radar
imagery does show some lull in the action before the next wave
of showers moves across the region. In between these two areas,
low stratus clouds remain although a few patches of clearing
here and there are evident.

While not too surprising given the forecast regime, the cold air
damming event has proven to keep conditions colder than models
indicated. Although many locations should pop into the 40s, some
upper 30s are possible, especially along/north of I-70. As
surface winds have now turned out of the south, albeit light,
subtle warm advection could aid in a bit of warming over the
next few hours.

Looking upstream, the next batch of showers is currently
tracking toward Allegheny Front. This is likely to impact the
area late this afternoon and into portions of the overnight
hours. With forecast temperatures in the 40s, it will be an all
rain event with total amounts around 0.10 to 0.25 inches.
Overnight lows largely stay in the 40s underneath thick low
clouds and light southerly winds.

For Wednesday, have opted to lower temperatures considerably
based on the meandering front settling near/south of I-64. To
the north of the boundary, a northeasterly wind will help hold
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with 60s possible
closer to I-64. With upstream convection expected, some of the
residual showers are likely to slide across the region the
second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. The frontal zone
slowly lifts northward as a warm front overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures warm by the end of the week,
continuing into the weekend and early next week. This comes with
daily precipitation chances.

Shortwave troughing tracks over the forecast area early Friday
morning with upper level ridging building over the East Coast
through Saturday. Upper level troughing pivots overhead Sunday
into Monday as surface high pressure shifts offshore and return
flow ushers in moisture and warmer temperatures. High
temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s are expected each day
with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Some isolated areas
may reach 80 degrees on Friday and Saturday afternoon.

However, this all comes with the caveat of where the meandering
warm front settles. Much of the latest guidance indicates the
backdoor cold front may bring cooler temperatures to the region
on Friday. While the current forecast package calls for
widespread 70s, this could easily bring some 50s to the area
depending on where this front resides.

Although spring-like temperatures return this weekend,
increased precipitation chances also return each day as multiple
waves of low pressure track along stalled fronts across the
Mid-Atlantic. This may include a few thunderstorms depending on
how much instability develops during the afternoon hours. With
ongoing moderate drought conditions across the forecast area,
rainfall is expected to be beneficial at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As precipitation has come to an end across the area TAF sites, a
mixture of IFR to LIFR conditions persist this afternoon. A
plethora of very low ceilings and limited visibility has
maintained the lengthy restrictions. While a few random cloud breaks
are evident on satellite imagery, these should not alter the
forecast much. Winds remain light, generally out of the south.

Additional showers arrive late this afternoon and continue
through the evening. These showers should help bring conditions
to IFR throughout this period of rain. Some improvements are
possible overnight to MVFR. However, given the degree of ground
moisture from recent precipitation, could see these
improvements being a bit optimistic. On Wednesday, most spots
should stay around MVFR underneath thick clouds and mainly
northeasterly winds. Further shower activity arrives from
Wednesday afternoon into the night. For Thursday, the warm front
should finally pull north of the region with a better shot for
VFR conditions, albeit with some shower/thunderstorm chances.

Southwest winds Friday morning shift to southeast in the afternoon,
blowing 5 to 10 knots during the day. Winds become light and
variable overnight before gusting 15 to 20 knots out of the
southwest on Saturday. Periods of Sub-VFR conditions are possible
across all terminals due to precipitation chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Gradients remain on the weaker side while a frontal zone
meanders near the waters. There are some hints of a light
southerly wind developing across a few of the buoys. The
expectation is for a bit more southerly flow into this evening
and night. A brief uptick is possible across the Chesapeake Bay,
particularly later tonight. Thereafter, wind gusts stay well
below advisory levels on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
meandering boundary eventually lifts northward as a warm front
on Thursday. Warmer air on top of chilly waters will limit
overall vertical mixing potential.

Southwest winds remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.
Winds increase on Saturday, with gusts nearing SCA criteria over the
open waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion