120
FXUS61 KLWX 031432
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1032 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Given ongoing radar trends, have bolstered precipitation chances
along/east of U.S. 15 through the early afternoon hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times through
Sunday.
- 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue
Ridge early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times
through Sunday.
Extensive cloud cover remains over much of the region, although
some cloud breaks are noted along I-70 in north-central
Maryland. The array of nearby radars are showing a band of more
concentrated rain tracking just east of the Blue Ridge toward
the I-95 metros. This will make for a rainy morning amidst the
cool post-frontal air mass. The stable nature of the air mass is
largely limiting hourly amounts to around a trace to 0.05
inches. The 12Z IAD sounding did show some dry air in the surface
to 900 mb layer. Despite precipitable water values of 1.55
inches, this drier low-level air is eroding some of this
rainfall before reaching the ground. Elsewhere, dry air will
work into the region from the north and northwest behind the
earlier cold front.
Strong high pressure will pass north of the area today while
the front stalls just to our south. Southern stream moisture
will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the north, but
there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line between rain
and no rain. The trend has been for a further north track, so
have shifted rain chances about 20 to 30 miles north with the
latest forecast package.
A wave of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary
tonight into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance of
some heavier rain spreading northward into the area. The Weather
Prediction Center does have our eastern areas in a Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Outlook, and this seems plausible given the
potential for a surge of 2"+ PWATs. Rain that does occur will
likely exit the area Sunday evening.
Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of
cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for
most areas over the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2...First widespread frost and freeze potential west of
the Blue Ridge early next week.
Significant pattern change for the first full week of Oct. CAA
behind a departing trof will bring the coldest air of the fall thus
far to the region. A robust area of Canadian high pressure moves
into the area Mon night through mid-week. Consequently, this is
forecast to bring a true autumnal feel to the air with daily temps
well below average. For Tue and Wed, forecast highs will generally
range from the upper 50s to 60s, with mountain locales mainly in the
50s. Looking at overnight conditions, the dry nature of the air mass
allows temperatures to plummet at night. Areas west of the Blue
Ridge can expect widespread mid/upper 30s on Mon and Tue nights.
Would not be surprised if some areas just east of the Blue Ridge or
in northern Maryland have frost as well. This will also include some
pockets of upper 20s to near the freezing mark. Given the growing
season continues across the region, there will be a threat of some
frost/freeze conditions both of those nights. For those with
sensitive outdoor vegetation, plans should be made to ensure their
safety in these conditions.
Although Canadian high pressure moves off the coast toward the
mid/late week period, the overall pattern will remain dry throughout
next week. Temps slowly rebound through the week as forecast highs
return to the low/mid 70s. Nighttime lows remain chilly, but the
threat for frost/freeze conditions should diminish beyond Wed
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is moving to the south of the area. Light rain
along and north of this boundary is producing a shield of light
rain along the I-95 corridor back to the central Virginia
Piedmont. Given some low-level dry air, there are no
restrictions with this activity at this time.
The front will stall to the south over the weekend, but its
position remains uncertain. Rain chances have increased area-
wide today as the stalled front is trending a bit further
north. Some heavier rain could move north into most areas by
Sunday morning as an area of low pressure develops along the
front.
Any sub-VFR conditions would likely be limited to CHO today, but
could spread northward Sunday.
VFR conditions early to middle parts of next week. Expect
NW`ly winds on Mon with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. As high
pressure crosses the region, winds shift to N`ly by Tue before
shifting to S-S`ly by mid-week.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for this threat through
early this afternoon.
After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a second cold
front pushes through on Monday.
Behind a cold front, NW`ly winds will increase throughout
Mon evening into early Tuesday. SCAs are likely going to be needed
during this uptick in the winds. As Canadian high pressure moves in,
wind speeds begin to drop off thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be on the decrease as high pressure builds on
the northwest side of the front that continues to push south.
Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion