685
FXUS61 KLWX 090755
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered dew points for this afternoon a bit from NBM, otherwise
no changes made. Main weather impact will come Sunday into
Sunday night as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move through
the Mid- Atlantic.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy
  conditions Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain,
breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night.

The main weather impact to the region over the next week is going to
be from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias. Model guidance
is in generally good agreement that Hurricane Isaias` surface low
weakens and broadens as the system moves into the TN Valley Saturday
night into Sunday. The mid-level circulation amplifies and becomes a
strong cutoff low over KY/TN that moves slowly east across the Mid-
Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Periods of rain are likely across the
area at times Saturday evening through Sunday night. Rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches are expected across the area. Higher rain
totals are certainly possible, but will depend on a few other
smaller scale features.

Tropical moisture surges north into our area Saturday night into
Sunday, with the highest PWAT values at or above 2" (most likely
east of the Blue Ridge). While the main cutoff low associated with
the remnants of Isaias remain west of the Appalachians on Saturday,
expect light rain to move in from south to north in the evening.
Forcing for ascent increases Saturday night, and especially Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the
approach of the cutoff low. There is going to be enhanced low-level
convergence somewhere over the region as the surface high to the
east and cutoff low to the west interact. Easterly flow into the
Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to
orographic effects. Additionally, an inverted trough or wave of low
pressure tries to develop in lee of the Appalachians Sunday as it
crosses Virginia to the Delmarva.

Uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and timing of
these features, which will ultimately determine where / if any
locally heavy rain occurs. Continue to monitor the forecast over the
next couple of days. No Flood Watches are planned at this time as we
are still over 48 hours from the main slug of rain.

It is going to be noticeably breezy, especially in the mountains
where winds begin to pick up Saturday evening. The strongest winds
are most likely on Sunday. The current forecast for peak wind gusts
is 30-40 mph in the Alleghenies and 20-30 mph elsewhere.

Conditions dry out Monday morning into Monday afternoon as the
remnants of Isaias push offshore. Looking at mostly mild
temperatures for most of next week. A series of cold fronts cross
the region during the middle to late part of next week as the
synoptic pattern becomes more active. Aside from mountain rain
showers, most of the area looks to remain dry. The strongest cold
front arrives late next week, possibly bringing rain and colder air
behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions are
expected at some time Saturday night into Sunday as the remnants of
what is now Hurricane Isaias move through the area. Low clouds and
reduced visibility due to steady rain are going to be the main
impacts. Breezy east winds gusting around 20 knots is likely on
Sunday. VFR conditions return Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Favorable marine conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon.
Then, SCA conditions are likely to develop across all the waters
Saturday evening into Sunday as easterly flow increases. The
remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias will move across the waters
Sunday, which is when gusts of around 30 knots are likely.
Conditions improve Monday, though passing cold fronts next week will
bring the opportunity for SCA conditions at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding seems likely at sensitive locations Sunday
evening due to rising water levels due to strengthening east to
southeast winds combined with high astronomical tides due to a new
moon. Winds turn offshore Monday allowing tide levels to recede.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion