922
FXUS61 KLWX 020007
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
807 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Can`t totally rule out a pop up shower or sprinkle over parts of
the area through mid evening. Easterly gusts have ensued over
areas east of I-95 as of 8pm. Will see how quickly tides respond
to wind shifts over the next 12 to 24 hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with a
chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm Tuesday.

2) Summer weather will return Thursday into the weekend as
temperatures rise and thunderstorm chances eventually increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue through
Wednesday with a chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm
Tuesday.

A weak mid-level wave approaching from the west coupled with an
inverted surface trough approaching from the east and just a
little bit of instability may trigger a pop up shower or
sprinkle this evening, as observed over southeast PA over the
last hour (as of this writing/8pm). It is much more likely than
not to stay dry, however, and if something doesn`t pop up by
9:30 or 10pm this evening it probably won`t for much of the
region except perhaps west of I-81 where some weak lift/moisture
lingers overnight.

By Tuesday, we watch a sharpening trough over the Mid-Atalntic/East
Coast and deepening low pressure off the Southeast US coast.
The sharpening trough and resultant piece of weak shortwave
energy looks to push across the area late Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon touching off a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This threat will be brief and mainly tied to the
mountains given better lift (aided by orographic effects).
Precipitation will be limited with most seeing nothing at all.
Meanwhile, coastal low pressure will track up along the
Southeast US coast and toward the Carolinas Wednesday before
pushing out to sea Thursday. This is due in part to broad
1024-1028 mb high pressure shunting south from the Great Lakes
region. In turn, expect below normal temperatures to continue
with highs Tuesday in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows
Tuesday night will fall back into the 40s and 50s. The warming
trend ensues Wednesday as high pressure settles overhead. Expect
highs back closer to normal with many locations pushing 80
degrees. Humidity will remain low along with little to no rain
through the midweek period.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer weather will return Thursday into the
weekend as temperatures rise and thunderstorm chances eventually
increase.

Broad high pressure will be centered over the central Appalachians
Thursday morning, drifting southeast and taking up residence off the
Southeast coast Friday into the weekend. An upper ridge axis
initially centered over the Ohio Valley will expand eastward,
although the ridge will flatten somewhat with time as several
troughs traverse the northern stream flow. The forecast for Thursday
through Saturday is fairly high confidence under the influence of
the ridge. The main story for this period will be a warming trend,
with some locations reaching 90 degrees by Friday and Saturday.
However, dew point rises will be modest, likely staying in the 50s,
so the heat index will be close to the air temperature. Most
locations will remain dry through Saturday, although it`s possible a
few showers or storms could sneak into the northwestern portions of
the forecast area (western MD, eastern WV near the Appalachians)
Saturday afternoon or night depending on the proximity of the
forcing to the north.

Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday into Monday as models
differ in the strength and timing of northern stream shortwaves
and the subsequent breakdown of the Southeast ridge. There will
be a nearly stationary front to the north, and this may try to
drop southward at some point as well. Thus, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Sunday and Monday, but coverage
will be influenced by the aforementioned features. It`s still
too early to determine if stronger thunderstorms will be
possible given the model spread, but machine learning guidance
has been consistently showing low probabilities of severe
weather. Temperatures will likely remain above normal,
especially Sunday, but will be dependent on the position of the
boundary and any clouds or precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An inverted trough migrating westward as of 00Z/8pm EDT had
caused an onset of gusts for MTN/BWI/DCA, and was imminent at
IAD. This boundary likely weakens as it progresses westward, so
any gusts at CHO/MRB will likely be occasional and not much
above 15 kts or so. Winds subside between 04Z-07Z if not a pinch
earlier from east to west in the wake of the surface boundary.
Guidance which had hinted at some lower CIGs earlier has backed
off which makes sense given low-level dry air in place and only
a brief enhancement in moist onshore flow this evening. Can`t
rule out a few lower clouds banked up against ridges off to the
west of IAD/CHO/MRB, though.

A spotty shower or thunderstorm could form Tuesday afternoon
west of MRB/SHD, although the greatest chance is over the
central Appalachians (i.e. KLWB/KBKW). Winds pivot back to the
north or northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

Significant weather is unlikely Thursday through Saturday. Light
west to southwest winds are expected each day.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs are in effect for all waters this evening into early
Tuesday morning due to increased east to northeasterly flow.
This is largely due in part to an area of low pressure passing
offshore sending an inverted trough westward. A couple of
sporadic gusts of 27-30 kts have been noted, but overall gusts
should be in the 20-25 kt range peaking this evening.

Additional SCAs may be needed for portions of the waters late
Tuesday into Wednesday although guidance has sub-SCA level
conditions heading into the midweek period. Greatest confidence
for SCAs will be over the middle and wider waters.

High pressure will slide over the area Thursday and move off the
Southeast coast Friday and Saturday. West winds will become
more southerly with time. In general, winds should be light, but
some marginal southerly channeling events could unfold along
the Chesapeake Bay during the evenings/overnights of some days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will likely rise again Tuesday into Tuesday night,
the magnitude of which will depend on the position and strength
of low pressure developing off the coast. Additional minor
tidal flooding is most probable at Annapolis with Wednesday
morning`s high tide, but will monitor any potential quicker
water rises given the return of onshore flow tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>533-535-
     536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion