205
FXUS61 KLWX 151416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry and seasonable today and Tuesday. Slight chance of
  showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly east of the Blue
  Ridge Mountains.

- 2) Warm and humid conditions return this week with the
  potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable today and Tuesday. Slight
chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly east of
the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Behind the earlier cold front which has now settled off the
Massachusetts coast down toward the Outer Banks, a cooler and
drier air mass has settled in from the northwest. There is quite
the contrast in soundings (00Z last evening vs. 12Z this
morning) as precipitable water values dropped from 1.86 inches
down to 0.64 inches. The resultant northwesterly flow has
favored the development of stratocumulus clouds which continue
to move in from the west. With dew points currently in the
low/mid 50s, it certainly feels much less humid than yesterday.

For today`s forecast, all zones will have temperatures a couple
of degrees below average for mid-June with dry conditions
expected. A weak disturbance will move across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Limited instability will provide a chance
for a couple of showers mainly east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures on Wednesday will climb a couple of degrees above
average.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and humid conditions return this week with
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

After trending somewhat drier at the start of the week, upper level
moisture starts to move into the region on Wednesday, along with a
trend upwards in temperature as hotter & more humid conditions begin
to take over. A stray shower or thunderstorm could develop later in
the day Tuesday through early Wednesday, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge, as a weak warm front slides northward from the Carolinas into
Virginia.

Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the
Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple
showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming
severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in
NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU`s ML
model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties
being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an
early widespread severe risk with this system.

This front will track towards the south by Friday, which could
result in a few lingering showers across the southern portions of
the region and along the central Chesapeake Bay. High pressure moves
into the region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds continue out of the northwest today with VFR conditions.
Given ample mixing, some 15 to 20 knot gusts are possible across
the area terminals. Continued VFR conditions are expected on
Tuesday as winds become light out of the south. A return of more
active weather comes on Wednesday.

Beginning Thursday, a strong cold front will move through the region
that could cause showers and thunderstorms at terminals. Periods of
sub-VFR conditions are possible as this system moves through.
Southeast winds shift westerly by Thursday afternoon. Conditions
should increase throughout the day Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will bring northwest winds. SCA remains in effect
through today. Sub-SCA level southerly winds are forecast for
Tuesday. Some isolated convection is possible over the waters on
Wednesday.

Beginning late Wednesday and Thursday, SCAs will be needed as a
strong cold front moves through the region. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the waters Thursday as this front
moves through. Winds diminish to marginal conditions Friday, before
diminishing to sub-SCA levels by Friday evening. Southeast winds
shift westerly by Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for Annapolis through
mid-morning as tides are a foot to a foot and a half above.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion