127
FXUS61 KLWX 060128
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Frost is expected in the Alleghenies tonight. Quiet
weather conditions are anticipated thereafter.
- 2) Remaining dry through the first half of the weekend before
rain chances return by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost is expected in the Alleghenies tonight. Quiet
weather conditions are anticipated thereafter.
High pressure will be centered over the Alleghenies tonight. Winds
are expected to go calm in locations to the west of the Blue
Ridge as the pressure gradient weakens. Locations further east
will likely maintain a light northerly wind through much of the
night. The combination of low dewpoints, clear skies, and calm
winds will set the stage for a near ideal radiational cooling
night to the west of the Blue Ridge. Most locations there will
drop into the 30s or lower 40s, with higher elevation valleys in
the Alleghenies likely dropping into the low to mid 30s.
Frost Advisories continue for the Alleghenies from midnight to
9 AM Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is possible in parts of the
central Shenandoah Valley, but it is not expected to be
widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory. East of the Blue
Ridge, overnight lows are forecast to be in the 40s.
Quiet weather conditions are expected locally for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with high pressure building directly overhead
tomorrow, and then moving just offshore on Wednesday. Sunny
skies are expected both days. Tuesday looks to be the coolest
day of the week, with highs in the 60s for most. Tuesday night
will be another cool night, but with the high a bit further
east, locations east of the Blue Ridge will have the greatest
chance to decouple. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures warm a bit on Wednesday in
southerly flow, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 70s
for most.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry through the first half of the
weekend before rain chances return by Sunday.
The northern latitude pattern will remain amplified during the
mid/late week period. An embedded shortwave trough passes by to the
north on Thursday which ushers in the next cold front. Like the
early week system, this frontal passage will also be a dry one.
Thus, the peak in warmth during the period is likely on Thursday
with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Another dome of
surface high pressure builds in for Friday and into the upcoming
weekend. This supports a slow but steady cooling trend as highs
return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Overnight conditions
will be seasonable as lows drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s. At this
point, it does not appear any frost/freeze concerns will exist.
One area to monitor will be the southwestern Gulf of America/Bay of
Campeche. As of 2 PM, the National Hurricane Center continues to
raise the probabilities of development (60%) within the next 48
hours. Whatever does materialize and lifts toward the Gulf Coast
features a lot of forecast uncertainty. Global ensembles show an
area of weakening low centers scattered about the Tennessee Valley
to southeastern U.S. Depending on track and quality of tropical
moisture, heavier rainfall may impact some area east of the
Mississippi River. Will continue to monitor and keep precipitation
chances around 30 to 50 percent for Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Wednesday.
Decreasing winds tonight, eventually become light and variable
tomorrow as high pressure moves overhead. Winds then turn light
out of the south on Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected from Thursday into the first half of the
weekend. Another cold front moves through the area on Thursday
before high pressure returns on Friday into the weekend. Initial
winds will be northwesterly behind the front before becoming more
easterly into Saturday as high pressure builds to the north.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect within northwesterly
flow for all waters, with winds slowly decreasing through the
night. Northerly winds decrease over the course of the day
tomorrow, and may become light and variable by late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night as high pressure moves overhead.
Winds then turn out of the south on Wednesday as high pressure
builds offshore.
A cold front crosses the waterways by Thursday evening which will
yield a shift to northwesterly winds. At this time, winds stay just
below advisory levels. High pressure moves in for Friday with
variable winds that gust around 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front moved through earlier this morning, and anomalies
are slowly starting to decrease within north to northwesterly
flow. A few sites may reach into Action Stage over the next few
days, but no flooding is expected.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion