693
FXUS61 KLWX 221834
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
234 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Severe weather risk increasing tonight for areas west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold
  frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the
  Blue Ridge Mountains.

- 2) Dry conditions anticipated early next week.

- 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week,
     with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold
frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains.

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop west of the Blue
Ridge Mountains where clear skies have allowed for sufficient
destabilization to occur. We`re also currently watching storms
over eastern Ohio where SPC has issued a SVR TSTM Watch. CAM
guidance show a broken line of thunderstorms forming in the lee
of the Appalachians tracking eastward this evening across the
rest of the fcst area ahead of cold front. Some storms may be
severe, but as storms travel east late this evening and
overnight, expect a gradual weakening trend due to more stable
air and gradual stabilization due to nocturnal cooling. Showers
or storms may persist until early morning across the Chesapeake
Bay and northeast Maryland.

The front will clear the fcst area overnight, but some upslope
showers may persist on the upslope areas of the Appalachians in
NW flow. Breezy and cooler Sunday with scattered fair wx clouds.
A sprinkle here in there is possible, but mainly dry.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated early next week.

On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region.
Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central
Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With
high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and
cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are
expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early next week.
Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week,
with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

Heading into the middle of next week, surface winds shift southerly.
As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions
return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late-
August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday.

Late next week, models depict a cold front drapping north to south
across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper-level low near Hudson Bay
pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and
thunderstorms return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MVFR cigs persisting through this evening with showers and
thunderstorms likely between 00Z-05Z. I handled any pop-up
showers this afternoon with VCSH as air mass is stable and
coverage is isolated. Then, TEMPO groups between 01Z-05Z when
showers and thunderstorms are likely. Cdfnt clears the area
overnight/early Sunday with NW winds gusting up to 15 kt. Sct
clouds 050 Sunday.

Light to gentle winds shift westerly Wednesday afternoon.VFR
conditions are expected early next week.

&&

.MARINE...

SE winds this afternoon, then becoming NW Sunday. SMWs may be
required later this evening and overnight with showers and
thunderstorms.

Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA
thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling
event ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...

Easterly winds have raised water levels significantly along the
western shore of the Chesapeake Bay with most guidance greatly
underestimating the pile up of water. Only CBFOS guidance has
performed well so far. With the higher of the astronomical tides
coming up tonight and elevated water levels, minor coastal
flooding seems likely at Annapolis.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KVH
AVIATION...LFR/KVH
MARINE...LFR/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion