693
FXUS61 KLWX 120851
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
351 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all the waters
beginning tonight through Friday. Snow accumulations for the
Allegheny Mountains continue to trend downward

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1)First accumulating snow for parts of the Alleghenies with
  rain showers and brisk conditions elsewhere, today through
  Saturday.

- 2) Cooler temperatures and dry condtions expected into
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...First accumulating snow for parts of the Alleghenies with
rain showers and brisk conditions elsewhere, today through
Saturday.

Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected today into early
this evening, mainly in the 18Z-00Z time frame as low pressure
tracks across the area. Cdfnt will shift east of the area after
00Z tonight with brisk NW winds developing and temperatures
falling from the low 60s into the mid 50s by early evening and
into the mid 40s by daybreak Fri. Across the higher elevs,
temperatures will fall much more quickly into the upper 20s or
low 30s by Fri morning. Off and on snow showers are anticipated
across the mountains late tonight into Sunday morning. Despite
plenty of cold air to support snow, snow accumulations have
continued to trend downward as a result of unfavorable low-level
trajectories. This still looks like a light snow event of 1 to
2 inches falling over a 24-hr period, which does not meet the
criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory. Elsewhere, light
rainfall accumulations of a tenth to two tenths of an inch are
expected, mainly this afternoon.

Continued brisk conditions are expected into Monday with plenty
of stratocumulus clouds during the daytime hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures and dry condtions expected into
the middle of next week.

Longwave troughing will remain over the east coast through early
next week, although heights will start rising Monday as the
amplified upper level pattern slowly progresses eastward.
Likewise, low level trajectories will gradually become less
favorable for upslope snow showers Sunday. Winds should be much
less noticeable by Monday and Tuesday as the surface high
finally reaches the Mid Atlantic, although temperatures remain
below normal. Given the lighter winds, the subsequent nights
could turn out colder in many areas, with widespread near or
below freezing temperatures outside of the urban centers and
tidal shoreline.

Further upper level amplification will likely happen toward mid
week. While a trough or low could develop toward the southeast
coast, it appears that ridging will dominate the Mid Atlantic. This
should start a warming trend beginning Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered to numerous light showers are expected today into
early this evening, mainly in the 18Z Thu - 00Z Fri time frame.
No flight restrictions are expected, but cigs will be BKN-OVC
around 4kft. Winds will shift to the NW after 00Z Fri and pick
up speed with gusts to 20 kt. Winds strengthen further Fri and
Sat with better mixing with gusts to around 30 kt expected.
BKN-OVC stratocumulus deck is expected Fri-Sun during the day.

Northwest winds may gust up to 25 kt Sunday, then become lighter
Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected both days.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will strengthen this evening after frontal passage with
freq gusts to 20 kt expected. Winds strengthen further Fri into
Sat with gusts to 30 kt expected.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in northwest flow
through probably Monday. Winds will start decreasing Sunday
night and Monday as high pressure nears, although marginal
advisory conditions may persist along the bay for a time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Action Stages are likely tonight before winds shift to
northwest behind a cold front this evening. Annapolis is now
forecast to reach minor coastal flooding with the high tide this
evening. A strong frontal passage will bring a prolonged period
of blowout tides Friday and through early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/EST
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion