327
FXUS61 KLWX 051933
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have lowered temperatures a bit for Saturday and Sunday, but
conditions will be rather hot despite the lower humidity levels.
The Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded
slightly south toward I-68/I-70 on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot weather returns through the weekend with some increase
  in shower and thunderstorm chances.

- 2) Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold
  front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather returns through the weekend with
some increase in shower and thunderstorm chances.

An expansive upper ridge centered off the southeastern U.S.
coast currently extends northward across the Mid-Atlantic into
New England. The influence of this building of heights and
thicknesses has yielded a further warming trend across the local
area. Mid-afternoon temperatures have moved well into the 80s to
near 90 degrees in a few spots. The combination of drought
conditions and the dry air mass in place should lead to more
effective diabatic heating processes. Consequently, another few
degrees of heating is likely despite the high cirrus, some
locally thicker, affecting much of the area. With the surface
anticyclone now off to the south, a weak lee trough has
developed across the Mid-Atlantic region. This is resulting in a
weak convergence area, but with little to no impacts given the
lack of moisture and lift.

High clouds remain in the picture into tonight with weak
southerly gradients persisting. The net results will favor a
milder night ahead with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
60s. After a few cooler nights with high pressure in place, this
eventually brings temperatures to above average for early June.

Weekend temperatures will be the hot side as daily readings
again push into the low 90s. While the populated forecast
favored something closer to the mid 90s, this was a tad too high
relative to statistical guidance. Made such adjustments given
the high bias coupled with the increase in cloud cover. For the
time of year, humidity levels remain subdued as winds will have
some downslope component to them. The boundary layer should be
well mixed which will yield gusts to around 15 to 25 mph during
the afternoon hours.

Saturday also presents changing conditions as a shortwave
trough pushes across southern Ontario into New England. Ahead of
the attendant cold front, high-resolution models break out
convection over the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. A
severe weather risk accompanies this system with a Slight Risk
currently extending from the Ohio Valley across the Mason-Dixon
Line and into southern New England. Given large dewpoint
depressions underneath the high cloud bases, ample downdraft
CAPE will support a damaging wind signature. Additionally, the
northwesterly flow aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates
enough to bring some signature of large hail. The highest
confidence would be north of I-68/I-70, with most high-
resolution models showing activity decaying with southward
extent. Have slightly bumped up shower chances toward U.S. 50,
but chances still remain on the lower end. The cold front is
slated to cross the area midday Sunday with winds shifting to
northwesterly in the wake. Any convective threat shifts toward
the I-64 corridor eastward into far southern Maryland. Off to
the north, expect mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds to
the north.

Heading into Sunday night, winds turn more northeasterly as the
cold front settles into North Carolina. Forecast lows drop into
the 60s, with mid/upper 50s over mountain locations. Any clouds
likely linger across I-64 back across the Potomac Highlands.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of
a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return
mid-week.

As upper level troughing pivots offshore, surface high pressure
centered over New England builds over the region bringing cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s
for most with higher elevations staying in the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s.
Temperatures continue to cool slightly with highs on Tuesday in the
low to mid 80s (70s mtns).

Upper level ridging begins building over the east coast Wednesday
and Thursday with temperatures beginning to gradually warming. High
temperatures will be in the 90s for most on Thursday. In addition to
increasing temperatures, relative humidity values are expected to
increase leading to heat indices in the mid 90s on Thursday. Hot and
humid conditions yield daily shower and thunderstorm chances
beginning Wednesday, although limited shear will keep severe chances
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely at all terminals through Saturday
afternoon as high pressure gradually departs off the Atlantic
coast. Winds are somewhat variable before turning more
southwesterly on Saturday. Given decent vertical mixing, gusts
up to 20 knots are possible, especially during the afternoon
hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Saturday
evening, with KMRB seeing the most likely chance for
restrictions. Further south, high-resolution models depict a
weakening trend into the night.

Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front midday Sunday with
any convective chances mainly near KCHO. High pressure building
to the north will yield mainly north to northeasterly winds into
Sunday with continued VFR conditions.

VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with surface high
pressure building over the terminals. Winds remain light blowing 5
to 10 knots each day with northeast winds on Monday shifting to
south on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East of a lee trough, southerly winds will pick up in strength
across the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon and evening. As such,
Small Craft Advisories are in effect across the
central/northern Bay waters through midnight. Another ramp up is
again possible early Saturday evening into the early overnight
period in response to additional channeling effects. This
appears to be more brief in nature. A cold front approaches from
the northwest overnight into Sunday morning. A few stronger
storms could reach the upper Chesapeake Bay waters on Saturday
evening. The convective threat does diminish from north to
south. Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly before
becoming northerly on Sunday night.

In the wake of a cold front, winds shift to easterly on Monday.
Winds increase, gusting 15 to 20 knots with Advisories likely
in the southern portions of the waters. Winds shift to southerly
in Tuesday with additional Small Craft advisories possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531>533-
     538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion