937
FXUS61 KLWX 060233
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor late tonight
look to be trending upward, with the greatest chance between
roughly 2 and 7 AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonable warmth and rain chances through Friday.

- 2) Seasonably cool weather returns this weekend.

- 3) Dry conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonable warmth and rain chances through
Friday.

As of 9 PM, a band of showers was ongoing along the I-95
corridor from Fairfax County northeastward into Northeast
Maryland. These showers will continue to lift northeastward over
the next few hours. There may be a bit of a lull following that
activity, but shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase in coverage again from Central Virginia northeastward
through the I-95 corridor later tonight as a wave of low
pressure develops along a stalled out frontal boundary. Lift
will increase through the night via continued warm/moist low-
level advection and convergence, as well as forcing for ascent
ahead of the mid/upper trough and jet streak. This will likely
result in a broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms near
and east of I-95, especially later tonight. PWATs will remain in
the 1.4-1.7" range near and east of I-95 with heavy downpours
possible. The 00z IAD sounding had 1552 J/kg of MUCAPE, and
around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will persist through the night with
cooling aloft occurring atop the unseasonably warm and moist
airmass in place at the surface. While some lightning- producing
updrafts of moderate intensity are plausible, the risk for
severe weather (tornadoes, hail, or damaging winds) is very low
due to a small stable layer near the surface. The risk for
flooding is also low due to recent dry conditions. Some CAM
runs show isolated totals of 1-3" along and southeast of I-95.
That likely wouldn`t cause any issues, unless the absolute
highest values fall directly over the urban areas. As of now,
the most likely location for the highest totals looks to be
across Southern Maryland.

The front will slowly begin to shift southeastward and out of
the area on Friday as a wave of low pressure develops and lifts
north-northeast away from the region. Rain chances linger over
southern Maryland into early Friday evening, with a few
sprinkles or showers possible further west (especially along and
west of the Allegheny Front in upslope) as the upper trough
swings through. Temperatures may cool enough to result in a mix
or change to spotty light snow late Friday night into Saturday
morning for elevations above 3500 feet in the Appalachians as
conditions dry and cool elsewhere on northwest breezes. These
breezes will usher in seasonably cooler air for the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably cool weather returns this weekend.

High pressure will build near and south of the region this
weekend. Northwest breezes are likely to stay elevated for many
locations (higher elevations, northern and eastern piedmont, the
metros, and over/near larger waterways like the Chesapeake Bay
and tidal Potomac River). Closer to the high in the central
Shenandoah Valley into the central Virginia piedmont, winds may
decouple Saturday night and especially Sunday night resulting in
the potential for near freezing temperatures. The growing season
remains active for all areas east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin
Mountains except for western Loudoun County in Virginia, and
Frederick County in Maryland. It is possible that patchy frost
may develop late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across
areas the decouple in central Virginia, but frost/near freezing
temperatures are more likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
Still, with the center of the high pressure to the south, there
may be enough of a light wind to keep the I-95 corridor and
northern-to-central Maryland to prevent frost/freeze in these
locations. Otherwise, outside of some lingering light upslope
along and west of the Allegheny Front Saturday, the weekend
looks to turn out dry.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry conditions early next week.

After a brief wet and humid period late this week, conditions
start to dry out again this weekend in the wake of a cold
front. Upper-level ridging settles in overhead by Monday with
generally clear conditions anticipated, although winds could
remain breezy as the front transitions offshore. As upper-level
ridging transitions to zonal flow in the following couple of
days, conditions should continue to remain benign, with
diminishing winds by mid week.

Afternoon highs drop back into the lower 60s in the immediate
aftermath of the front, but gradually increase again through
Wednesday as high pressure lingers. Expect somewhat above
seasonable temperatures to persist as this dry pattern
continues, though there are hints of a pattern shift toward the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings are forecast to drop to IFR later tonight, while
coverage of showers and thunderstorms simultaneously increases.
As of now, the highest chance for thunderstorms looks to be
between 4 AM and 7 AM, although a storm can`t be ruled out a bit
earlier or later. That potential has been highlighted at DCA,
BWI, and MTN with PROB30 groups. Chances for storms decrease the
further west one goes.

Winds will shift to the west, northwest, and north rather
gradually as the front slowly crosses tonight into Friday. The
front may even briefly stall near the I-95 corridor which could
lead to a period of erratic wind direction (albeit at light
speeds) early Friday morning. As the front inches southeastward
Friday, conditions will slowly lift to VFR. Winds likely
increase out of the northwest after 03Z/10PM EST Saturday as the
front makes a more pronounced push offshore and a wave low
pressure moves away up the coast.

VFR conditions are anticipated Saturday through early next week
as a cold front transitions offshore. Winds flow generally
westerly, potentially gusting up to 25 knots at times through
Monday before diminishing later in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for a few more hours
across the widest waters of the Middle Bay. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop later tonight, then
persist in waves through at least midday Friday before exiting.
Storms should be largely elevated, though some sporadic gusty
winds can`t completely be ruled out. Dry conditions and gusty
northwest winds are then expected to develop Friday night and
persist into the weekend.

Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed much of the time
in west to northwest flow late Friday night through Monday in
the wake of the cold front. Additional SCAs may be needed
Tuesday in the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Peak
gusts around 30 knots are possible at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are running around 1 to 1.5 feet. Expect these
to fall after a cold front crosses Friday. Until then, this
will bring a few locations into Action stage through tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion