867
FXUS61 KLWX 240726
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory has been dropped as winds are now below 15
knots across the waters. A steady stream of moderate showers
will continue for the next couple of hours from Culpeper to
Baltimore. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" are expected along this
corridor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Active weather pattern persists through Tuesday.

- 2) Temperatures remain steady as chances for showers and
  thunderstorms persist through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern persists through
Tuesday.

Moderate to heavy showers are steadily pushing north across areas
east of the Blue Ridge early this morning. These showers are
efficient rain makers due to the deep warm cloud layer and very high
PWATs for late May. Recent obs show between 0.50-0.75" of rain has
fallen in the last hour from north of Manassas into western Fairfax
County. Locally higher amounts of 1-1.5" are possible as additional
rounds of heavy showers move through. Even so, the overall flood
threat remains low due to the fast movement of showers and low water
baseline due to preceding drought. This rain is likely to produce
some response in smaller streams, especially in urban areas.

Showers move north of the area around or just after sunrise, then
conditions should remain mostly dry for the rest of this morning to
early afternoon. The stalled front slowly starts to lift north
through the day allowing for warmer temps in the 70s to creep into
central VA and west of the Blue Ridge. The CAD wedge likely lingers
north of the Potomac River where temps only reach the 60s, and this
is likely where the stalled frontal boundary will be by this
evening. In the warm sector, another round of showers and possible
thunderstorms are likely this evening into tonight.

The previously stalled front will be well north of the area come
sunrise on Memorial Day. At the same time, another cold front
approaches from the west. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid 70s to low 80s, coupled by dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s. The approaching front is set to kick off yet another round
of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon to evening, especially
along/south of US-50. The whole day won`t be a washout, but the most
likely time for rain/storms is going to be late afternoon to
evening. Any severe threat would be minimal given the lack of
vertical shear. Unfortunately, that cold front also stalls over the
area Tuesday as flow aloft becomes split and weaker. High rain
chances linger, especially south of I-66 where showers and
thunderstorms are likely again.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures remain steady as chances for
showers and thunderstorms persist through much of next week.

Mid-to-late next week brings little change of note to conditions
here in the Mid-Atlantic. High-amplitude high pressure to the north
over the Canadian Prairies, combined with a trough over the northern
Gulf to the south, will bring residual energy through the region and
thus continued daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms at
least through Thursday. Temperatures may increase somewhat during
this time, but will likely stay below the low-80s as a cold front
meanders just south of us between Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm
likelihood during this time will likely be very sensitive to the
placement of this front.  After this point, drier air starts to come
through from the north, lowering rain chances somewhat towards the
end of next week. However, some uncertainty remains in this timing
as the frontal boundary associated with this could still trend more
northerly.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heavier showers are moving along the I-95 terminals early this
morning. LIFR CIGs and reduced VSBY due to mist are likely after
that through around 16Z, then mist/drizzle clears and CIGs lift to
IFR at BWI/MTN, and possibly MVFR at the other terminals. Most of
the day remains dry, then another round of showers, lower CIGs, and
possibly mist/fog impact all the terminals tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions likely continue into Monday, though by the
afternoon some CIGs could approach VFR levels. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. Dense fog is possible
Monday night as winds go calm across the area.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible across terminals Wednesday and
Thursday as daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue. Winds will
remain light, but will generally flow northerly by Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The stalled boundary over the region today will lift north as a warm
front tonight. Winds are going to be light and variable through the
middle of the upcoming week. Fog is possible tonight into Monday
morning. Thunderstorms could cross parts of the waters each
afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

Expect light winds to continue into Wednesday and
Thursday,  with southerly winds transitioning northerly by Thursday
evening. A few isolated stronger gusts are possible should any
thunderstorms track over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion