792
FXUS61 KLWX 300044
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
844 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with a few
  opportunities for rain showers.

- 2) Shower and thunderstorms chances return mid to late week as
  a series of fronts traverse the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend will continue through Wednesday
with a few opportunities for rain showers.

High pressure will remain anchored off the east coast through
the middle of the week. A frontal zone will remain stalled over
the Great Lakes through Tuesday, with the strongest wave of low
pressure riding along it Tuesday into Tuesday night.

With building riding across the southeastern states, expect a
continued rapid warming of the airmass. Temperatures will jump
about 10 degrees each day Monday and Tuesday before leveling out
Wednesday. Many areas will likely reach the 80s for highs
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows rise from the 40s tonight
to the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night.

As alluded to in previous discussions, rain chances have
increased, particularly for Monday. A subtle perturbation will
move through the zonal flow aloft Monday morning. However, it
might be outrunning the greater moisture advection. That
moisture will steadily deepen through the day however, and broad
isentropic ascent could result in scattered showers at times.
Rain rates will be on the meager side due to residual dry air,
weak forcing, and downsloping westerly flow above the surface.
These showers will also likely be brief. Rain chances have also
increased Monday night across northern portions of the area
closer to where the thermal gradient will reside. A thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out, but most 12Z guidance keeps this activity
farther north in Pennsylvania. Some rain chances linger into the
Tuesday forecast as well. Seems like this would be tied to
diurnal terrain circulations. However, ridging will be building
and the best forcing and deepest moisture will be well north of
the area. So I would favor Tuesday being drier for now.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorms chances return mid to
late week as a series of fronts traverse the region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase mid to late
week as broad upper level ridging breaks down and an upper level
trough swings through. At the surface, will reside strong blocking
high pressure over the north-central Atlantic allowing for moist
return flow into the area. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with
the upper level trough will drop south from the Great Lakes/upper
Midwest region Wednesday into Thursday. 12z guidance continues to
show subtle differences in regards to the placement of the front,
shower/t-storm coverage, and temperatures during this period.
Depending on the position and strength of the surface high over the
Atlantic Ocean, the front could become hung up over our region
becoming a focus for the continued development of showers and
thunderstorms through late week.

Right now 12z deterministic/ensemble guidance suggests a slower
front dropping into the region Wednesday afternoon and evening
before wavering nearby Thursday into Friday. This would lead to a
slightly wetter solution (not a washout) with increased rain
chances, especially over northern parts of the forecast area during
peak heating periods. Of course this will all be determined by the
placement and strength of the high pressure system offshore. If the
high is weaker, the front will be able to push south leading to
lower precipitation totals and storm coverage. If the high is
stronger, the front will likely hang up across northern portions of
the forecast area leading to higher rain totals. Either way, any
rain will be beneficial given widespread moderate drought concerns.

The front eventually lifts back to the north Friday into Saturday
putting the entire area back into the warm sector. Scattered shower
and thunderstorm chances will likely continue with more widespread
activity holding off until the cold front arrives Sunday into early
next week. With a wavering front nearby, expect a large spread in
temperatures pending where the boundary ends up. We could be looking
at highs ranging from the 50s and 60s to mid and upper 80s later
this week and into the upcoming weekend. Overnight lows could
vary and bit as well with 40s and 50s compared to low 60s from
north to south across the region.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains low, but not
zero. On Wednesday and Thursday, the threat may be tampered due to
the lack of forcing. Some storms may be strong to severe given
instability from temps in the 70s and 80s and dewpoints climbing up
around 60 degrees. Shear will also be elevated given the front
nearby. Additional low end severe potential is possible later in the
week and weekend given the instability and shear ahead of the next
cold frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain offshore through early this week,
where it will remain in control of the local weather through
Tuesday. Overall VFR conditions are expected through this
period, though there are some hints of lower ceilings (still
most likely VFR) Monday into Monday night as a disturbance
passes. Some scattered showers are possible as well on Monday,
but any restrictions should be brief in light rain. Given
uncertainty in coverage along with the low impact, have not
added this mention into the TAFs yet.

Gusty south to southwest winds will continue to be a feature in
this pattern as well. Gusts of 20-30 kt this afternoon should
subside somewhat with sunset, though intermittent gustiness is
possible through the night. Despite strong winds (up to 45 kt)
at 925mb, think there should be enough mixing and relatively
unidirectional winds with height to preclude LLWS at most
terminals tonight. Diurnal south/southwesterly gusts of 20-25 kt
will repeat Monday and Tuesday.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible at times Wednesday and Thursday in
gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Winds will shift from
the west and southwest Wednesday back to the north and northwest
Thursday. Additional sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday into the
weekend as a front wavers nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring on all waters this
evening in gusty southerly flow. The advisory continues through
Monday, although gusts may become more intermittent on the
interior waters tonight.

The area will remain between the offshore high and a frontal
system across the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. The low level
jet isn`t quite as strong Monday night, with guidance hinting
that winds may drop below criteria for some of the waters. Thus
with lower confidence, have not made any extensions to the
advisory at this time. Advisories will likely be needed for all
waters Tuesday, and probably Tuesday night as well as the strong
south to southwest flow remains in place.

Small Craft Advisories are possible Wednesday and Thursday
along with the potential for Special Marine Warnings due to
thunderstorms as a front passes through. Additional SCAs may be
needed within channeling later in the week and upcoming weekend
as the front lifts back north of the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain positioned offshore through Tuesday. A
quick warm up will continue through Wednesday. While gusty
southerly or southwesterly winds will continue through Wednesday
(peaking in the lower elevations during each afternoon, but
continuing through the nights on exposed ridgelines), the
atmosphere will also steadily moisten. Thus critically low RH is
unlikely in the coming days. Weak disturbances could bring some
scattered showers Monday and Tuesday, but wetting rains are
unlikely.

A frontal system stalled across the Great Lakes will eventually drop
southward into the area Wednesday, bringing repetitive chances for
showers and possibly thunderstorms through the end of the week as it
stalls nearby. The front may return north at the end of the
week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion