974
FXUS61 KLWX 260730
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
230 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Headlines have been issued for the entire CWA
tonight. The coldest night in several years is likely with
record lows possibly broken.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerously cold wind chill temperatures through this
weekend.
- 2) Periods of mountain snow through mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerously cold wind chill temperatures
through this weekend.
A highly amplified trof pattern and Arctic high pressure will
maintain very cold, well below normal temps through the end of
the week. Temps moderate slightly today, but this comes with a
blustery WNW wind. Have gone below NBM guidance given thick snow
pack with lows favored on the negative side of zero for most
areas NW of I-95. Have issued Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold
Weather Advisories for the entire CWA tonight into Tue morn. In
the warning, wind chills of -20F to -25F are expected, with
near -35F across western Pendleton County. In the advisory, as
low as -20F west of the Blue Ridge and -10F east of the Blue
Ridge.
The next round of frigid air comes behind the mid-week clipper
system. From Wed through Sat, daily high temperatures run
between the upper teens to low 20s, with Allegheny highs
remaining in the single digits. Looking more closely at
overnight conditions, Thu night looks particularly cold as the
next Arctic high drops down from central Canada. Forecast wind
chills again drop to below zero over most of the area, with
negative teens along the Allegheny Front. Several more days of
cold wx headlines are likely, especially for the higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Periods of mountain snow through mid-week.
Snow will continue through the day across the Alleghenies. It
will be a fluffy snow with not much moisture, but another 1-2"
can be expected. Have the Winter Storm Warning continuing
through 10 AM, but may be able to be let go early depending on
radar trends. Admittedly, biggest impact is the blowing snow
across the Alleghenies today.
Upper trough pattern will likely keep the threat of snow
showers across the mountains through the end of the week. The
most significant upper air disturbance is expected to cross the
area Wed night and early Thu and will likely generate a few
inches of snow accumulation across the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected on through Tuesday.
As a coastal system exits to the east, NW winds pick in
strength today with gusts to around 25 to 30 knots. Some
residual wind lingers into tonight before winds shift to
SW by Tue. The next clipper system yields a return to
NW flow by late Tue.
Brisk conditions will persist all week with wind the main impact to
terminals. Otherwise, no other hazard is expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
As the coastal low strengthens off the Delmarva coast,
NW winds increase in earnest. Gale conditions are expected
across much of the Chesapeake Bay into lower portions of the
tidal Potomac River on today into tonight. Gusts of up to 35
knots or so are possible at times. This will also contribute to
issues with some freezing spray given the frigid air and
enhanced wind fields, so have issued a freezing spray advisory
for all waters tonight.
Winds briefly shift to SW`ly during the first half of Tue
before turning more NW by this evening/night. Sub-advisory
winds are expected during this time.
West winds near SCA criteria Wed morning with advisories
possible. Winds diminish overnight before increasing to SCA
criteria on Thu. Additional advisories are likely on Thu.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected at times through the first half of
the week. Water levels are expected to bottom out below MLLW
through Monday as NW winds strengthen. A gradual return to
normal water levels is expected by the middle of next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the January 25-27,
2026 timeframe:
A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
Charlottesville (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
Annapolis (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
Hagerstown (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
Charlottesville (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
Annapolis (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
Hagerstown (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ008.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ501-
509-510.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for VAZ027>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-
505-506-526-527.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ503.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for VAZ025-026-036-037-503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-
503-505.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ530.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ530>543.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ530.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening
for ANZ531-532-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ531-532-538>540.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-
534-537-541>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion