792
FXUS61 KLWX 030736
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisories was expanded to include the middle
portions of the Tidal Potomac. Otherwise, no major changes were
made to the forecast with Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
remaining in effect until 9AM this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freeze Warnings are in effect in the Alleghenies, Blue
  Ridge, and central Shenandoah Valley. Frost Advisories are in
  effect from central Maryland into parts of central Virginia
  tonight and early Sunday.

- 2) A strong cold front brings widespread showers and
  thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freeze Warnings are in effect in the Alleghenies,
Blue Ridge, and central Shenandoah Valley. Frost Advisories are
in effect from central Maryland into parts of central Virginia
tonight and early Sunday.

Freeze Warnings extend from western Maryland, into
parts of northeastern West Virginia, as well as the central
Shenandoah Valley until 9AM this morning. Frost Advisories
extend from central Maryland, the eastern West Virginia
Panhandle, and along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge into
the Virginia Piedmont. As cloud cover dissipates this morning,
temperatures drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the
higher elevations and valleys along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures are already in the low 30s within the Freeze
Warning and are expected to cool further this morning.

As high pressure shifts offshore today, temperatures through
early next week. While overnight temperatures tonight will be
warmer, dew points below freezing will yield possible frost for
those along the highest elevations in the Alleghenies.
Elsewhere, low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings widespread showers
and thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures.

A shortwave trough passing through to the north could bring a few
residual showers to the area on Tuesday, primarily north of the I-66
corridor. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough centered over the
Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring significantly more widespread
chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the region as it
moves through the area between Wednesday and Thursday. As of right
now, early QPF estimates are forecasting 1.00-1.25
inches of rain in the area by Friday, which would be extremely
beneficial given widespread drought concerns that have
impacted the region for some time now. As for the severe
potential, NCAR`s Medium-Range AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast
still has our area under a 5%-15% chance for severe potential during
this time, but it has much higher severe chances centered around
where its forecasted low is to the south. Should this center low
trend northward, we could see a much greater potential for
thunderstorms and severe convection in our area.

Once this frontal boundary passes through, temperatures cool a bit
towards the end of the week, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s
again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday as high pressure
builds over the terminals. Northwest winds gust 15 to 25 knots
this afternoon before diminishing overnight. On Monday,
southwest winds remain light blowing 5 to 10 knots.

Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible at KMRB on Tuesday with
scattered showers possible. Widespread showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across
terminals. Winds remain southerly during this time, with gusts
reaching 20-30 knots starting Tuesday evening and going into
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon
as northwest winds gust up to 25 knots. Winds quickly diminish
this evening with winds remaining light overnight. On Monday,
winds shift to southwesterly, remaining below SCA criteria
through the day.

SCA conditions remain likely through at least midweek, with 15
knot winds potentially increasing to 25 knots by Wednesday morning;
gusts up to 30 knots will be a possibility across the bay on
Wednesday. Winds continue to flow southerly during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies rise tonight into Monday morning, with
sensitive tidal locations(Annapolis) nearing minor flood level
during the high tide cycle Monday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003>006-507.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ028>031-
     036>040-050-051-501-505.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>027-503-
     504-507-508.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ051>053.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion