518
FXUS61 KLWX 061520
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1020 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a short fuse Small Craft Advisory south of the Bay Bridge
due to localized but persistent gusts as a front crosses through
about 2 PM this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today along
  and east of US-29.

- 2) Turning cooler this weekend with dry weather expected much
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today
along and east of US-29.

The cold front arcs along I-95 as of mid morning, with most
shower activity along and east of it (in particular over
southern Maryland).

By early afternoon, most of the shower/tsra activity should be
confined to southern Maryland and exit the area shortly after
21Z. Turning cooler overnight on strengthening NW winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler this weekend with dry weather
expected much of next week.

Behind the departing cold front, expect a shift to a dry weather
pattern for the weekend and into much of next week. Northwesterly
cold air advection will support falling temperatures on Saturday as
highs drop into the mid 50s to low 60s (40s to low 50s for the
mountains). The trailing upper low passes overhead to the north
which should keep some cloud cover around. Residual gradients also
support a brisk wind at times with afternoon gusts around 20 to 30
mph, perhaps nearing 40 mph along the Allegheny Front. Winds remain
somewhat elevated into Saturday with a chilly night ahead. Forecast
lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with spots of low/mid 30s
around sheltered mountain and river valleys. Any frost generation
should be limited by the residual winds. High pressure tracks in
from the middle of the country by Sunday. After a cloudy start along
the Alleghenies, expect abundant sunshine for the day with highs
returning to the mid 60s along I-81 and south of I-66 in Virginia.
This comes with west-northwesterly breezes around 15 to 25 mph.
Another chilly night lies ahead with widespread lows in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Some patchy frost is possible where winds turn lighter.

The weather for the work week ahead appears mainly quiet. With the
upper pattern being amplified, a series of troughs pass by to the
north of the region. The initial height falls cross the northeastern
U.S. late Sunday which drags a dry cold front through the area. An
additional dry system follows suit passing by on Tuesday. The peak
in the warmth would be on Tuesday before temperatures fall again
during subsequent days. This would provide additional chances for
frost and/or freeze as overnight temperatures return to the 30s. By
late next week, an anomalous upper low settles overhead which may
support a rather cold period heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and possible thunderstorms expected through about 16Z,
mainly eastern terminals. Winds shifting to NW later today,
though a brief S/SE shift is possible for eastern terminals as a
front dangles nearby. A few showers are possible this afternoon
in these areas, as well.

With a dry pattern running for this weekend into early next week,
VFR conditions are likely at all terminals. Behind a cold front,
Saturday`s northwesterly winds could gust to around 20 to 25 knots
before dropping to 15 to 20 knots on Sunday. A dry cold front tracks
in late Sunday which supports additional northwesterly breezes on
Monday before winds turn more southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A localized but persistent area of N/NW gusts of 20-25 kts
likely persists through early afternoon south of the Bay Bridge.
Otherwise, strengthening NW winds late tonight into Saturday
will result in solid SCA conditions. SCAs remain in effect
beginning at 10 PM tonight as of this morning`s update; SCAs
will probably need to be extended into Sunday morning.

Behind the cold front, marine winds remain elevated through Sunday
afternoon which will likely require further Small Craft Advisories.
A dry cold front moves across the waters late Sunday which supports
another uptick in the winds for Monday. This should necessitate
additional advisories for portions of the waters. Gradients weaken
by Tuesday with gusts falling to around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion