574
FXUS61 KLWX 290035
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
835 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The earlier Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably cool weather is expected through tonight.

- 2) A warming trend is expected Sunday through Wednesday.

- 3) A frontal passage midway through next week will have
  potential to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cool weather is expected through
tonight.

High pressure will build in overnight tonight, causing
northwesterly winds to decrease and then eventually go calm. A
very dry low level airmass and rapidly diminishing winds will
allow radiational cooling to take place, though it may level off
as return flow kicks in aloft the second half of the night.
Still we are looking at widespread temperatures in the 20s to
lower 30s. The urban centers and tidal shoreline will likely
remain in the mid 30s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend is expected Sunday through
Wednesday.

As high pressure moves offshore Sunday into early next week,
return flow will usher in warmer temperatures. Each day through
Tuesday is expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than the
previous day, with Wednesday`s highs similar to Tuesday`s. This
draws many areas to or above 80 degrees by mid week. Overnight
temperatures will rise similarly, with no additional threats of
subfreezing conditions through the week. South to southwesterly
winds will also remain gusty between the offshore high and a
couple low pressure centers passing over or north of the Great
Lakes. Expect gusts of 20-25 mph each day during peak heating. The
greatest concern for fire weather conditions will be Sunday in
the residual dry airmass (see section below for more details).

A few showers may develop on Monday as a lead shortwave and
broad isentropic upglide lift across the area, but residual dry
air may make more widespread measurable rainfall hard to come
by. Most guidance focuses any light measurable rainfall along
the Alleghenies. Monday will also be relatively cloudier for the
same reasons. Strong ridging over the southeastern states will
likely dominate by Tuesday and keep low pressure/rain well to
the north. However, can`t totally rule out a pop up shower,
mainly over the mountains due to diurnal terrain circulations.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...A frontal passage midway through next week will
have potential to bring showers and thunderstorms to the
region.

Broad ridging is forecast to start breaking down early next week
allowing an upper level trough to progress eastward to the north of
the region. Strong high pressure is likely to be anchored over the
north central Atlantic Ocean acting as a block to the east and
southeast. A front associated with the trough is forecast to
drop into the region from the north/northwest bringing the
potential for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Uncertainty remains high on shower/thunderstorm coverage along
with overall rain amounts associated with the boundary.
Depending on the position and strength of the high over the
Atlantic Ocean, the front could become hung up over our region
becoming a focus for the continued development of showers and
thunderstorms. This solution would bring the most rain to the
region especially if the front stalls over the northern parts of
our region. If the high is further off-shore and weaker, the
front will be able to progress further south leading to less
precipitation totals and coverage. The large model spread in
frontal position is narrowing at least for Thursday, with
increasing confidence the front will push to the south. However,
it may try to lift back north at some point toward the end of
the week. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with
this frontal passage remains low due to the lack upper level
lift and low level jet, but there may be enough instability to
allow for some stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move overhead tonight and offshore Sunday,
where it will remain in control of the local weather through
Tuesday. Overall VFR conditions are expected through this
period, though there are some hints of lower ceilings (still
VFR) Monday into Monday night.

The main weather feature over the next few days will be the
wind. Northwesterly gusts up to 25 kt will quickly diminish with
sunset this evening. Winds will either be calm or gradually flip
to southerly the second half of the night. Southerly gusts of
20-25 kt will develop during the late morning and afternoon on
Sunday. Winds may remain elevated Sunday night, although the
gust factor may decrease. Despite strong winds at 925mb, think
there should be enough mixing to preclude LLWS. Diurnal
south to southwesterly gusts of 20-25 kt will repeat Monday and
Tuesday.

A frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday could lead to subVFR
conditions in showers along with gusty winds shifting from the
south to northwest behind the front. A few thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will rapidly diminish this evening as high pressure
builds overhead. Southerly winds will quickly increase on
Sunday, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly it
will do so on the southern Maryland waters. Have delayed the
Small Craft Advisory start until 2 PM in this area, with an
effective time of 10 AM elsewhere. The advisory continues Sunday
night, although gusts may become more intermittent on the
interior waters.

The area will remain between the offshore high and a frontal
system across the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed in the gusty south to southwest
flow during this period. There may not be much of a drop in
winds during the overnight hours either.

Small Craft Advisories are possible Wednesday and Thursday
along with the potential for special marine warnings due to
thunderstorms with the frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build over the region through Sunday, then
move offshore early next week. Below normal temperatures are
expected through Sunday morning with seasonable temperatures by
afternoon.

A dry airmass will remain over the area through Sunday. Despite
the southerly wind direction, the dry air resulting in red flag
conditions across the southeastern states today will lift
northward Sunday. After modest RH recoveries tonight, minimum RH
values drop to 20-35 percent again on Sunday. Southwest winds
will also gust 15-25 mph through the day. Fine fuels will
continue to dry, so a Special Weather Statement for an elevated
risk of fire spread will likely be needed for Sunday midday and
afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday, although
humidity will likewise, so the fire weather threat may decline
somewhat. Although a light shower could occur in a few spots
Monday, overall dry weather will continue through Tuesday. A
frontal system stalled northwest of the area will eventually
drop southward into the area Wednesday, bringing repetitive
chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms through the end
of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/JMG
AVIATION...ADS/JMG
MARINE...ADS/JMG

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion