932
FXUS61 KLWX 120759
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense fog is possible this morning across central Virginia.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued tonight into Wednesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost and freeze conditions and locally dense fog for
portions of the area this morning.
2) Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
3) After another cool down, above average temperatures return
for the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and freeze conditions and locally dense
fog for portions of the area this morning.
High pressure is situated over the eastern Great Lakes this
morning. With mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures
have been tumbling as expected. As of 3 AM, readings in the 30s
are common west of the Blue Ridge, although spotty locations
east of the Blue Ridge have dropped into the upper 30s as well.
A light north wind behind a secondary boundary is keeping
temperatures in the 40s in some locations though. Freeze
Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect for many
locations west of the Blue Ridge through 8 AM.
Patchy fog has also developed, more widespread (combined with
some low stratus) near and south of the I-64 corridor where
there was more rain yesterday. While 1/4SM observations have
not become common yet, will be monitoring these southern areas
for a possible Dense Fog Advisory.
With the high moving overhead today, expect sunny skies and
light winds. While warmer than Monday, highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s are still a touch below normal. As the surface high
departs tonight, increasing southerly winds will hold lows in
the upper 40s and 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
A trough diving southeast from central Canada will drive a
surface low across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Gusty southerly
winds will battle increasing clouds to push temperatures into
the 70s. A lead vort max may result in an initial round of
showers moving across the area during the daytime. It`s
uncertain how far east these will make it with residual dry air
in place. Either way, very little instability will be available
for this first round, even though the showers could be reaching
areas east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. A second
round of convection is expected to develop west of the
Appalachian crest closer to the main trough axis and surface
cold front. While shear will be sufficient for organization,
instability will be lacking. Most models show this activity
crossing the mountains during the late afternoon, then affecting
areas east of the Blue Ridge during the evening. While some
stronger thunderstorms could occur across western areas, a
gradual diminishing trend is expected with eastward extent. SPC
has maintained a Marginal/Level 1 Risk for western portions of
the area. The main threat will be strong to locally damaging
winds.
KEY MESSAGE 3...After another cool down, above average
temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.
The earlier mid-week trough is expected to close off in the
vicinity of the upper Mid-Atlantic to southern New England on
Thursday. Not only will this keep temperatures cooler with some
enhanced cloud cover, scattered mountain showers look possible
during the daytime hours.
Surface high pressure builds over the region on Friday.
Temperatures start to creep back up to the low 70s on Friday and
then quickly rise as upper level ridging builds and warm air
from southwest CONUS moves into the region. Highs for Saturday
and Sunday are forecasted to broadly range in the 80s, and early
temperature outlooks for Monday show highs reaching the 90s as
persistent upper level ridging continues. There are some hints a
shortwave trough may bring shower and thunderstorm potential at
some point between Saturday and Sunday, although model spread in
this feature remains large. Drier air moves into the region at
the start of next week as upper level ridging builds,
minimizing additional rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fog and stratus have formed near CHO this morning, although
observations at the airport have been highly variable. Drops to
1/4SM/VV001 are possible. Fog is not expected at the other TAF
sites.
After sunrise, VFR conditions are expected with light and
variable winds becoming south or southeast in the afternoon.
Some gustiness may develop overnight at times, with gusts to 25
kt more common on Wednesday. There may be multiple rounds of
showers and embedded thunderstorms, one during midday to
afternoon, and the second during the evening. Any thunderstorms
could contain gusty outflow, especially at MRB. The cold front
tracks through Wednesday night, which brings an end to any
showers and shifts winds to the northwest.
An upper level low will be nearby on Thursday into Friday which
will likely add stratocumulus, with a worst case being MVFR
ceilings at times. Northwesterly winds will also gust to 25 kt.
A shortwave trough potentially brings some scattered showers in
the Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe, but prevailing VFR
conditions are otherwise expected otherwise. Light winds Friday
night shift southwest Saturday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
A secondary front is crossing the waters early this morning. A
few northerly gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the bay as it
does so. Southerly flow will take hold this afternoon,
increasing tonight as high pressure departs. Gusts of 20 to 25
knots will be commonplace across a majority of the waters,
especially by Wednesday. While wind gust forecasts are tricky on
the interior waterways during the overnight, have eventually all
waters entering a Small Craft Advisory tonight. The current
advisory continues through 6 PM Wednesday, although it will
likely need to be extended into the evening. Some late
afternoon to evening thunderstorms. could impact the waters as
the cold front approaches from the west. Any stronger storm may
require Special Marine Warnings.
Winds shift to west-northwesterly early Thursday behind the cold
front. Winds will increase through the day, and advisories will
likely be needed. SCA conditions likely continue through Friday
afternoon. Winds fall below SCA criteria by Friday evening.
Northwest winds shift southerly by Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Expect a gradual uptick in water levels ahead of a mid-week
low pressure system. The influence of increasing southerlies
will carry the tidal forecast to action stage at several
locations during times of high tide. The Stevens ensemble shows
the potential for Minor tidal flooding by early Thursday at
Annapolis. Expect anomalies to fall thereafter as winds shift
to northwesterly.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
MDZ008.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ501-509-510.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ502.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ503-504.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>029.
WV...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ501-503-505-
506.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050-051-055-
502-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ530-535>539-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ531>534-540-541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion