995
FXUS61 KLWX 071508
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1108 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories for the main channel of the Bay and Lower
Tidal Potomac have been extended in time through noon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, with frost and/or
 freezing temperatures possible tonight in the Alleghenies.

- 2) Milder for the weekend with increasing rain chances. Below
  normal temperatures return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, with
frost and/or freezing temperatures possible tonight in the
Alleghenies.

In the wake of a cold front exiting to the southeast through
this morning, cooler temperatures are expected today and
tomorrow. High temperatures today rise into the 60s for most
with higher elevations staying in the 50s. Tonight, overnight
lows drop into the 30s and 40s. Frost and/or freeze conditions
are possible for those along the Alleghenies as temperatures
drop into the low to mid 30s. Minimal cloud cover overnight
combined with lighter winds yield conditions favorable for
radiational cooling. Currently, best chances for frost/freeze
appear to be in Highland County, VA and Pendleton County, WV
where temperatures will be the coolest.

Temperatures increase slightly on Friday with surface high
pressure overhead. High temperatures will be in the 60s to low
70s with the Alleghenies staying in the 50s. Overnight lows will
be in the 40s and 50s. Cloud cover increases overnight as a
frontal system approaches from the northwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Milder for the weekend with increasing rain
chances. Below normal temperatures return early next week.

Height rises will commence on Saturday as a stubborn upper-level low
churning near James Bay weakens slightly. At the surface, a cold
front will approach the upper Ohio River Valley while weakening.
High pressure offshore will result in modest return flow and milder
temperatures, with a few showers or thunderstorm possible Saturday.

By Sunday, a shortwave will dive down the rear flank of the trough
toward the Great Lakes/Midwest. This will drive a stronger cold
front from the Ohio River Valley to the East Coast. A secondary wave
of low pressure is likely to develop as the front crosses the Mid-
Atlantic, though it remains to be seen if this enhances rainfall
locally or causes it to "skip" over the region as many systems of
done recently.

In the wake of the late weekend front, cooler than normal weather is
set to return for the first half of next week. Rain chances may
linger into Monday morning before departing as a cold front swings
offshore. With high pressure building in from the west Monday night
into Tuesday, overnight low temperatures could feasibly drop into
the mid 30s resulting in some frost potential for the Alleghenies
heading into early Tuesday morning.

As the high drifts offshore, the threat of a few pop up showers or
thunderstorms may re-emerge by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light northwest winds are expected today along with VFR
conditions. On Friday, winds shift to westerly and gust 15 to 20
knots in the afternoon. South winds gust around 15 knots on
Saturday with VFR conditions continuing.

Ahead of a cold front, Sunday will bring widespread rainfall across
the area, including a few thunderstorms. Restrictions will likely be
commonplace given low ceilings. Showers linger into Monday morning
before the system departs out to sea. Expect an improvement to VFR
conditions for the remainder of the day with northwesterly gusts up
to around 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty north to northwesterly winds continue across the southern
portions of the waters through noon with a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect. Winds diminish by this afternoon and remain
below SCA criteria throughout the day. Overnight, winds increase
briefly between 4-6AM, gusting to 20 knots with MWS likely.
Winds remain below SCA criteria on Friday as west winds blow 5
to 10 knots. Winds shift southerly Friday night with southerly
channeling leading to additional advisories possible through
Saturday.

As southeasterly flow ramps up late Sunday afternoon, Small
Craft Advisories may be needed across some of the waters. An
active weather day will also yield a few thunderstorms. It
remains to be seen if these will be strong enough to require
Special Marine Warnings. A cold front crosses the waters early
Monday with a shift to northwesterlies with gusts up to 20 to 25
knots. Small Craft Advisories will likely be need into much of
Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ532>534-537.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion