857
FXUS61 KLWX 261901
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County
for the early Monday morning high tide. Additional advisories
will likely be required the next two mornings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily precipitation chances tonight and tomorrow with a
  strong cold front yielding a chance at severe weather on
  Tuesday.

- Drier conditions return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily precipitation chances tonight and
tomorrow with a strong cold front yielding a chance at severe
weather on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

NUCAPS soundings from 1540Z and 1724Z showed that earlier
inversion seen above 500 mb has eroded, but CAPE remains skinny
with MUCAPE in the 300-500 J/kg range from roughly Hagerstown
southeast to Fredericksburg. A shortwave-trough dropping into
the area in NW flow later this evening is expected to aid in
convective development with HREF ensembles showing the best
chance of convection between 23Z and 03Z. Given the skinny/weak
CAPE seen on the NUCAPS data, severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely this evening.

Warmer and slightly more unstable conditions ared expected Monday,
but shortwave ridging aloft may limit thunderstorm coverage.
Overall, it looks like less coverage Monday afternoon than
today.

A deepening shortwave-trough will drop from the eastern Great
Lks into our area Tue afternoon pushing a strong cold front
through the area Tue evening. Strong height falls coupled with
strengthening winds aloft will lead to greater thunderstorm
coverage and storm organization with a much greater risk of
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts appear to be primary
risk due to expected fast storm motions, but isolated tornadoes
can`t never be ruled out in NW flow. Convection should start
exiting the area quickly after 00Z Wed. One caveat is potential
for showers and thunderstorms early Tue morning which may leave
behind plenty of clouds and limit instability through the day
Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

In the wake of Tuesday`s frontal boundary, the associated low will
slowly meander towards the northeast over the next couple of days.
This should reduce rain chances overall, but spotty showers and
thunderstorms remain possible as this low slowly slides offshore of
New England late in the week. High pressure moves in overhead
towards the end of the week bringing drier air and similar
conditions overall as the week prior, with highs in the low to mid
80s.

Heading into next weekend, a broad area of low pressure begins to
form over the Midwest and track eastward. As temperatures gradually
rise towards more normal July averages, this could bring additional
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, mainly
between 23Z and 03Z. Less coverage is expected Monday. Severe
thunderstorms are likely Tue afternoon with damaging wind gusts
and temporary flight restrictions.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated the second half of the
week. Northwest winds could produce gusts up to 25 kts on Wednesday
before diminishing some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Fair weather today under light winds. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Monday and numerous to widespread thunderstorms Tue
afternoon which may require SMWs. SCA conditions are likely
Monday afternoon through the middle of the week.

SCA conditions could persist through Thursday afternoon before winds
diminish overall. Southwest winds shift northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal FLood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County
for the early Monday morning high tide. Strengthening southerly
flow combined with a near Full Moon will lead to minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tides the next several
mornings.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion