149
FXUS61 KLWX 210040
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
740 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross Sunday morning, followed by a
transient area of high pressure on Monday. A low pressure system
moving through the Great Lakes may affect the area late Monday
night into Tuesday. Another transient area of high pressure on
Wednesday may give way to a warm front on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High clouds continue to streak across the area at times this
evening. A bit thicker cloud cover is slated to come in from
the west overnight ahead of the next boundary associated with a
low pressure system in Ontario. The clouds coupled with SW winds
will result in milder lows tonight (generally low to mid 30s,
upper 20s in some western locales). At the SFC, SW winds with
gusts to 15-20 mph are possible (up to 35 mph in the terrain).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak/dry cold front will sweep through early Sunday. The cold
front will be an airmass change only, as downsloping winds actually
warm temperatures several degrees higher than today outside the
Alleghenies (highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, though 20s to 30s in
the mtns). Lows Sunday night will drop off into the 20s, with teens
in spots due to continued CAA.

Quick area of high pressure builds in Monday with temperatures
actually near or slightly below average for most.

A flatter shortwave trough and relatively weak wave of low pressure
will move toward the Great Lakes Monday night. There is some
potential for an area of light warm advection precipitation to
spread into the area, especially during the second half of the
night. Surface temperatures may be on either side of the freezing
mark, depending on how quickly cloud cover increases and how much
southerly flow is realized at the surface. On top of that, thermal
profiles aloft are also uncertain, although generally warming with
time. Thus there could be some potential for freezing rain anywhere
low-level cold air remains trapped. Should any snow occur on the
front end, the most probable place for that to occur would be mainly
north and east of Washington DC. With all that said, many areas may
just see rain should precipitation occur at all.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a warm front tracks through, expect some residual rain
chances on Tuesday morning for those along and east of I-95.
Back along the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the flow
will keep rain in the forecast through the afternoon hours.
Relative to previous days, conditions will be mild with most
seeing high temperatures in the 50s. This comes with southerly
breezes up to 20 to 25 mph, with 30 to 40 mph gusts in the
mountains. The cold front attached to an upper trough crossing
northern New England will move through Tuesday evening. In the
wake, expect a gusty westerly wind in the mountains with speeds
up to 40 to 45 mph through the evening and early overnight
hours. Forecast lows will be in the 30s with skies gradually
clearing through the night.

There should be a brief mid-week cool down ahead of milder
conditions headed toward Christmas and beyond. Aside from the
Alleghenies, most start off with plenty of sunshine with high
pressure in place. Skies cloud up later in the day ahead of an
upstream warm front. Forecast highs on Wednesday will range
from the 40s to mid 50s (coolest in the mountains and near the
Mason-Dixon Line). Rain chances come in overnight into Christmas
Day.

The mentioned warm front moves into the area on Christmas Day
aiding in mild conditions and passing showers. Low-level
southwesterly flow will ensure above average temperatures as
highs push into the 50s to low 60s. The local cool spot may be
over northeastern Maryland with temperatures in the mid/upper
40s. Thus, expect another year without a White Christmas.
Further warming is likely into Friday with widespread upper 50s
to mid 60s in the forecast. This is all in response to a
building upper ridge initially centered over the southern U.S.

Amplified flow passes by to the north early next weekend which
ushers in the next frontal zone. This allows for some cooling as
winds shift to northwesterly. A few additional showers are
possible as this pattern shift unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds remain SW through the
evening with gusts to 15-20 kts. Some uncertainty remains with how
frequent gusts are overnight, though at least as of 00Z winds
were 4-8 kts out of the S/SE. That will be important for possible
LLWS development. LLJ will peak around 40-45 kt around 1500 ft
with some potential for a low-level inversion and slight
veering. This threat will likely end between 07Z-10Z, but
additional LLWS could briefly develop as a NW LLJ moves overtop
slowly shifting lighter sfc winds Sun AM.

A dry cold front will shift winds to the west with gusts up to
25 kt possible through the afternoon Sunday. High pressure
moves winds back to the south Monday afternoon. A warm front may
bring some light precip late Monday night.

Some lingering restrictions are possible on Tuesday morning
before conditions improve as precipitation exits to the
northeast. A breezy southerly wind may gust to 20 to 25 knots
during the afternoon hours. A cold front sweeps through Tuesday
evening yielding a shift to westerly winds overnight. VFR
conditions are expected behind the front on Wednesday. Some rain
chances return late Wednesday into Christmas Day. This also
comes with a shift to south to southwesterly winds as a warm
front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds continue and increase through the evening. SCAs are
in effect for tonight. A lull is likely in SCA conditions Sunday
morning, but then a cold front will cross and shift winds to
the west and northwest. Have issued advisories for all waters to
capture this, with gusts mostly 20-25 kt, though there could be
some to 30 kt. Advisories in N/NW flow continue into early
Monday morning over the wider waters.

Another transient area of high pressure will bring a brief
period of lighter winds on Monday, shifting to the south in the
afternoon. Advisories in southerly channeling may be needed by
the second half of Monday night.

The channeling effects likely persist into Tuesday morning and
afternoon which would warrant Small Craft Advisories. A cold
front tracks across the waters Tuesday evening/night which
could see a few gusts push to near 20 knots. High pressure
returns for Wednesday with sub-advisory winds expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CPB
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion