814
FXUS61 KLWX 241429
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1029 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have adjusted the wording of the stalled frontal zone as the
boundary currently resides over the southeastern U.S. It will
likely struggle to push as far north as the I-66 corridor by
this evening. This should lead to temperatures being around 3 to
6 degrees cooler where low clouds persist longer today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Active weather pattern persists through Tuesday.

- 2) Temperatures remain steady as chances for showers and
  thunderstorms persist through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern persists through
Tuesday.

What remains of the overnight rain showers have moved into the
Delaware Bay and southern New Jersey. Overall skies remain
overcast with plentiful low stratus across the region. The only
exceptions would be along and just west of the Allegheny ridges,
and along the Blue Ridge mountain tops where some clearing is
evident on the GOES-19 visible satellite channel. The stalled
frontal zone in response to the persistent cold air damming
(CAD) wedge remains across the southeastern U.S. The current
forecast brings this boundary northward as a warm front today.
The longstanding CAD wedge will likely have an impact on today`s
high temperature forecast. For those across central Virginia
and west of the Blue Ridge, some temperatures in the low/mid 70s
are possible. Elsewhere, mid/upper 60s are likely to be more
commonplace. Within the northward advancing warm sector, another
round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this
evening into tonight.

The previously stalled front should be well north of the area
come sunrise on Memorial Day. At the same time, another cold
front approaches from the west. High temperatures are forecast
to reach the mid 70s to low 80s, coupled by dew points in the
upper 60s to low 70s. The approaching front is set to kick off
yet another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
to evening, especially along/south of US-50. The whole day won`t
be a washout, but the most likely time for rain/storms is going
to be late afternoon to evening. Any severe threat would be
minimal given the lack of vertical shear. Unfortunately, that
cold front also stalls over the area Tuesday as flow aloft
becomes split and weaker. High rain chances linger, especially
south of I-66 where showers and thunderstorms are likely again.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures remain steady as chances for
showers and thunderstorms persist through much of next week.

Mid-to-late next week brings little change of note to conditions
here in the Mid-Atlantic. High-amplitude high pressure to the north
over the Canadian Prairies, combined with a trough over the northern
Gulf to the south, will bring residual energy through the region and
thus continued daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms at
least through Thursday. Temperatures may increase somewhat during
this time, but will likely stay below the low-80s as a cold front
meanders just south of us between Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm
likelihood during this time will likely be very sensitive to the
placement of this front.  After this point, drier air starts to come
through from the north, lowering rain chances somewhat towards the
end of next week. However, some uncertainty remains in this timing
as the frontal boundary associated with this could still trend more
northerly.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Behind the departing showers, LIFR CIGs and reduced VSBY due to
areas of drizzle or mist are likely after that through around
16Z. Eventually this activity clears and CIGs lift to IFR at
BWI/MTN, and possibly MVFR at the other terminals. Most of the
day remains dry, then another round of showers, lower CIGs, and
possibly mist/fog impact all the terminals tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions likely continue into Monday, though by the
afternoon some CIGs could approach VFR levels. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. Dense fog is possible
Monday night as winds go calm across the area.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible across terminals Wednesday and
Thursday as daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue. Winds will
remain light, but will generally flow northerly by Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The stalled boundary well to the south of the area will lift
north as a warm front tonight. Winds are going to be light and
variable through the middle of the upcoming week. Fog is
possible tonight into Monday morning. Thunderstorms could cross
parts of the waters each afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

Expect light winds to continue into Wednesday and
Thursday,  with southerly winds transitioning northerly by Thursday
evening. A few isolated stronger gusts are possible should any
thunderstorms track over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...BRO/KRR/SRT
MARINE...BRO/KRR/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion