638
FXUS61 KLWX 141837
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
237 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Monitoring the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon to evening, mostly in the Potomac
Highlands and northern MD.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire
weather conditions persist through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated
fire weather conditions persist through Saturday.
A weak cold front will brush the area this evening, bringing the
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Latest high res guidance
has low coverage, which is expected since greater forcing will
remain to our north. Still, the steep low-level lapse rates and
sufficient instability could support a strong storm or two capable
of producing damaging wind gusts. This is most likely in the Potomac
Highlands and northern MD. Some guidance indicates outflow
boundaries from convection in PA reaching north/northeast MD this
evening. If that happens it could touch off a few additional
showers, but confidence for that is low, and any impacts look to be
minimal.
Near-record April heat and mostly dry conditions are forecast
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area both days. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat
indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures.
Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid
heat-related illnesses.
There will be showers and thunderstorms in PA tomorrow as another
front approaches, but all of the guidance keeps convection north of
our area for tomorrow. The next front arrives Thursday night into
Friday, but it won`t bring any relief from the heat as temps will
still be in the 80s Friday. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be
meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be
the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front
arrives.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains
will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards
the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are
currently well aligned on a Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front
stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After
several days of near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect
a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with
early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in
temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is
likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at
this time, with ensemble runs showing some convective signatures and
NCAR`s AI Convective Hazards forecast currently placing the area
under a 15-30% likelihood for convection on Sunday. High pressure
moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to
persist for a bit once this system moves offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday
morning. Breezy conditions possible each afternoon, with south to
southwest winds gusting around 20-25 knots for several hours. A few
thunderstorms are possible this evening, and again Thursday night
into Friday, but coverage and impacts are forecast to be low.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as
southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20
knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots.
Some thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, then
again over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most
of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above
normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting
around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire
weather SPSs will likely be needed each day, with coordination from
local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas
that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to
continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit
each successive day.
Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a
combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around
20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air
to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below
20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition,
it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into
Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting
rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with
cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty
regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be
limited rainfall from this front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both
high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could
tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low
temperature records for the month of April.
April 14
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
April 15
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
April 16
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
April 17
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
All-Time April Record Highs:
Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
All-Time April Record Warm-Lows:
Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion