715
FXUS61 KLWX 200637
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
137 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedging high pressure will keep things dry and cloudy through
Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from the Ohio and mid-
Mississippi River Valleys will bring another round of rain to the
region Friday into Friday night. A cold front will swing through the
area early Saturday with high pressure building over the central
Appalachians Sunday into Monday. Another wave of low pressure and
front look to cross the area Tuesday into the middle part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain firmly wedged down the east side of
the Appalachians through tonight. This will result in abundant
cloud cover, cool daytime temperatures, and relatively milder
overnight low temperatures. Although a few sprinkles or patchy
drizzle can`t be ruled out at times, it is expected to be mostly
rain free.

Areas of fog are possible tonight given lingering low-level
moisture and light onshore flow going calm. Fog would be most
widespread (and possibly dense) in areas where clouds break.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high pressure wedge will attempt to break down and lift away
as a warm front lifts toward the Mid-Atlantic ahead of low
pressure over the Midwest. Milder temperatures are expected as a
result Friday into Saturday.

As low pressure approaches, forcing for ascent will increase.
Broad troughing aloft attendant to the surface low will scoot
across the region through early Saturday resulting in widespread
rain, albeit light. Amounts of 0.10-0.25" are expected with
locally higher amounts possible in the terrain.

Although showers are possible with the warm front lifting
through during the day Friday, more widespread rain is expected
Friday night as the low makes its closest approach.

The system`s cold front will move through early Saturday. This
should bring the threat of rain to an end by roughly midday for
most of the region. Temperatures will again be mild as cold
advection behind the front is weak and lags a bit.

Northerly winds and clearing skies should bring temperatures
down into the 20s and 30s Saturday night with dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper-level troughing pivots off the East Coast Sunday
and Monday ahead of a ridge moving overhead Tuesday. At the
surface, high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday
through Monday morning ahead of a cold front pushing through the
forecast area Monday afternoon. A low pressure system tracking
across the Great Lakes from the central Plains pushes the
associated frontal systems through the forecast area Wednesday.

Dry conditions are expected Sunday through Monday morning with high
pressure in place. Precipitation chances begin increasing along the
Alleghenies Monday afternoon as the aforementioned cold front
approaches from the northwest. Precipitation chances overspread the
area Tuesday and linger through Wednesday. Overall, beneficial rain
showers are expected Tuesday with showers becoming more isolated in
nature on Wednesday.

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s each day with highest
elevations staying in the upper 40s. Overnight low temperatures drop
into the 30s and 40s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGs will likely persist well into the daylight hours
today, possibly lingering into the afternoon in spots. Light
onshore flow will shift from NE to SE today. The change in wind
direction may help weaken the subsidence inversion aloft a bit
resulting in a general gradual lifting and scattering of lower
clouds through the day. However, this will also be bringing in
more moisture, which may have the opposite effect at times. AMDs
will likely be necessary to capture near term/localized trends.
For CHO and MRB, a period of IFR is likely this morning given
some moisture pooling and lighter flow in the lowest 1 km AGL
near these terminals. Mainly cloudy conditions will linger
tonight. The increased low-level moisture from today`s light
onshore flow with possible cloud breaks could lead to instances
of fog. Certainty on fog development and magnitude is low given
the chance for a lingering light wind and cloud cover.

Winds shift to S Friday as a warm front lifts through. Some
sub-VFR conditions are possible in lower CIGs and -RA at times.
Low pressure and its cold front will follow Friday night into
Saturday with increasing potential for lower CIGs and VSBYs due
to more widespread rain through early Saturday morning. VFR is
expected to return by Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves
away and drier air moves in.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as high pressure
builds over the region. Light southerly winds around 5 knots on
Sunday shift to westerly on Monday, increasing slightly to 5 to
10 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Light north to northeast flow is expected through this morning,
becoming more southeasterly this afternoon. Dry but cloudy
weather is expected through tonight.

Winds shift to southerly Friday as a warm front lifts through.
This warm front may bring a few rain showers. An area of low
pressure and its associated cold front will glide across the
area Friday night into early Saturday bringing more widespread
rain. Winds may increase out of the south for a time ahead of
the low late Friday, then increase a bit more readily in the
wake of the cold front Saturday. SCAs are possible late Friday
through Saturday before winds become lighter under building high
pressure Saturday night.

Surface high pressure builds over the waters Sunday and Monday.
Southerly winds on Sunday shift to westerly on Monday with winds
expected to stay below SCA criteria.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/EST
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion