798
FXUS61 KLWX 070114
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for thunderstorms this evening appears to be
trending downward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Much cooler air moves in for Thursday and Friday, with
  frost and/or freezing temperatures possible in the Alleghenies
  Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Much cooler air moves in for Thursday and
Friday, with frost and/or freezing temperatures possible in the
Alleghenies Thursday night.

Cold front slowly sagging through the area this evening, with
only a few moderate showers noted on KLWX radar. A few of the
showers briefly became heavy, but with instability waning there
likely will not be much in the way of thunderstorms this
evening. Most of this shower activity will dissipate by
midnight, then another period of showers is possible overnight.
Again, this activity is expected to be light. Northwesterly
flow behind the front advects much cooler air into the region
overnight as lows drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon climb into the 60s. Most of the
showers will have pressed off to our south by tomorrow morning,
but a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out throughout the day
as upper troughing and an embedded shortwave pass through
aloft.

Skies should clear out tomorrow night as the upper trough axis
moves off to our east and large scale subsidence starts to build
overhead. Most of the forecast area will likely maintain light
northwesterly winds with a weak pressure gradient in place.
However, sheltered mountain valleys in the Alleghenies may go
calm as a surface ridge builds overhead. Frost and/or freezing
temperatures may be possible in the Alleghenies, especially in
sheltered valleys that decouple. Overnight low temperatures will
be in the 30s in those locations, with 40s elsewhere.

A mix of sun and clouds is forecast for Friday, with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for most.

Height rises will commence on Saturday as a stubborn upper-
level low churning near James Bay weakens slightly. At the
surface, a cold front will approach the upper Ohio River Valley
while weakening. High pressure offshore will result in modest
return flow and milder temperatures, with a few showers or
thunderstorm possible Saturday.

By Sunday, a shortwave will dive down the rear flank of the
trough toward the Great Lakes/Midwest. This will drive a
stronger cold front from the Ohio River Valley to the East
Coast. A secondary wave of low pressure is likely to develop as
the front crosses the Mid- Atlantic, though it remains to be
seen if this enhances rainfall locally or causes it to "skip"
over the region as many systems have done recently.

In the wake of the late weekend front, cooler than normal
weather is set to return for the first half of next week. Rain
chances may linger into Monday morning before departing as a
cold front swings offshore. With high pressure building in from
the west Monday night into Tuesday, overnight low temperatures
could feasibly drop into the mid 30s resulting in some frost
potential for the Alleghenies heading into early Tuesday
morning.

As the high drifts offshore, the threat of a few pop up showers or
thunderstorms may re-emerge by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered light showers are ongoing this evening along the cold
front, though impacts at the terminals will be limited to brief
MVFR VSBY and CIGs. As the front continues to cross the area,
could see additional showers overnight and some periods of MVFR
CIGs again. IFR CIGs are possible at CHO, but confidence is low
at this time.

Conditions should improve to VFR at CHO by mid-morning Thursday.
VFR conditions and light winds are expected for all tomorrow
afternoon. Continued VFR conditions and westerly winds are
forecast at the terminals for Friday.

VFR likely prevails for much of the upcoming weekend, with the
highest threat of sub-VFR conditions coming late Sunday as rain
chances increase in association with an approaching cold front.
Winds look southerly 10 kts or less with occasional gusts to 15 kts
during the daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have dropped below SCA levels this evening as a cold front
now sits just west of I-95 as of 9PM. As the front slowly
crosses the waters, winds quickly shift to northwest. Northerly
channeling late tonight could lead to a few hours of gusts near
20 knots. Marine Weather Statements may need to be issued for
this as winds likely won`t last long enough to warrant a Small
Craft Advisory.

Sub-SCA level northerly winds are expected over the waters
tomorrow. North to northwesterly winds may briefly approach
low-end SCA levels again Thursday night. Sub-SCA level westerly
winds are forecast for Friday. Winds turn out of the south on
Friday night, and could potentially reach low-end SCA levels.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed in southerly flow through
Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Rain chances increase particularly late Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion