346
FXUS61 KLWX 131333
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly expanded the mention of isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some lingering showers today before turning cooler with
  less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

- 2) Warm and dry conditions through the end of the week;
  showers possible along a cold front next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some lingering showers today before turning
cooler with less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

While much of the remainder of the day will be dry, a pre-
frontal trough may help induce a few additional showers or
thunderstorms, but these should be rather disorganized and
isolated in nature. By the afternoon, expect more sun than
clouds which will help crank temperatures back well into the
80s. This is aided by a weak downslope component to the winds as
they shift to northwesterly. Despite the wind shift, humidity
levels do remain elevated with dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Heading into tonight, an approaching cold front from the Great
Lakes may induce additional showers along and west of the
Allegheny Front. Otherwise, this is largely a drier frontal
passage which will also lead to cool temperatures and lower
humidity to start off the work week. Gradients are rather tight
for mid-September as a broad 1024-mb surface high approaches
from the Great Lakes. This will favor a breezy northwesterly
wind for Monday, with afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25 mph at
times. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s to low 80s (5 to 15
degrees cooler for mountain locales). As the seasonably strong
dome of high pressure settles over the northeastern U.S. on
Monday night, low temperatures plunge into the upper 40s to 50s.
The autumnal feel to the air lingers into Tuesday before an
eventual warm up by mid-week. Plenty of sunshine can be expected
each day, but with decreasing winds on Tuesday with the ridge
along the Eastern Seaboard. This all comes with dew points in
the upper 40s to mid 50s which is certainly a change from recent
days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and dry conditions through the end of the
week; showers possible along a cold front next weekend.

A strong upper ridge builds over the region during the middle
portion of the week supporting very warm and dry conditions. Not
looking at any record highs since records are in the mid 90s.
The ridge begins to flatten at the end of the week as it starts
feeling pressure from a deepening trough over Hudson Bay. A
front eventually sinks southward at the end of the week possibly
bringing few-sct showers. Overall, very warm and dry this week,
turning cooler and potentially wetter for late September.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings persist through the mid/late morning before
improvements to VFR take shape by midday. Thereafter, clouds
should continue to erode which allows for some sun to break out.
A pop up shower or storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon.

VFR conditions then continue through Tuesday. Winds remain weak
today, generally out of the west to northwest. A seasonably
strong cold front tracks through early Monday which yields post-
frontal northwesterlies with gusts to around 20 to perhaps 25
knots. Winds eventually weaken into Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region.

Fair weather conditions expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A pop up shower or storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon or
early evening. A cold front arriving early Monday is forecast
to yield increasing northwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 to
25 knots. Small Craft Advisories look quite likely on Monday
into portions of Monday night. Multiple wind shifts take place
on Tuesday as high pressure passes by to the north. However,
gusts drop off back into the 5 to 10 knot range.

Sub-advisory conditions continue into Wednesday and Thursday
with gusts to around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion