834
FXUS61 KLWX 032000
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through
  Wednesday with increasing rain chances Thursday into early
  next week.

- 2) Rain chances continue into early next week with cooling
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions
through Wednesday with increasing rain chances Thursday into
early next week.

High pressure will keep the region dry late this afternoon,
through tonight and most of the day Wednesday. A light southeast
to southerly flow will bring in additional moisture and some
warmth throughout this prolonged period. As a matter of fact,
the increasing moisture and falling temperatures at night could
result in some patchy fog in interior mountain valleys and along
and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Otherwise, mostly sunny
skies expected through midday Wednesday, before some increasing
clouds in the afternoon. Lows tonight will fall back into the
upper 40s and low 50s with highs back in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday. A few locations could punch into the upper 70s in the
lee of Alleghenies and south/east of Washington DC Wednesday
afternoon given increased southerly flow.

The high pressure ridge will break down to allow for increasing
clouds and increasing rain chances from west to east Wednesday
night. Lesser rain chances on Thursday as a trough moves by to
the north. The resultant surface front is set to cross sometime
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon leading to scattered
showers and a few t-storms. Rainfall amounts Thursday will range
between a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally higher
totals west of the Alleghenies where better forcing resides.
Despite increased cloud cover expect highs back into the low to
mid 70s (60s mountains) Thursday afternoon. Storm total rain
through Friday night will generally be between a quarter to a
half an inch.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances continue into early next week with
cooling temperatures.

Temperatures drop towards the beginning of the weekend as Thursday`s
cold front passes offshore, with afternoon highs back in the 60s on
Saturday. Skies could temporarily clear Saturday afternoon into
Sunday as the earlier upper-level trough continues east. Meanwhile,
a second trough moving southeast from the Canadian Rockies will move
in closely behind, with a stemming cold front moving through
beginning late Sunday into Monday. This second upper level low could
bring additional rain showers to the region, although total QPF
estimates continue to be uncertain. Thunderstorm potential should be
lower with this second wave, and any rainfall will continue to be
beneficial after 2+ weeks in a dry spell.

Temperatures continue to cool towards more seasonable November
normals, with highs in the low-60s over the metros and low-50s in
the mountains by Monday. Overnight lows could return to the mid-to-
low 30s in some areas early next week as these cold fronts move
through. Zonal flow overhead returns by midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and light south/southeasterly winds at less than
15 kts will continue through Wednesday as high pressure
meanders over the western Atlantic. Some patchy fog could occur
again along and east of I-95 tonight/Wednesday morning given
the uptick in moisture advection. This will lead to brief
reductions in cigs/vsbys during the 9-13z/4-8am time window.
VFR conditions continue into Thursday although brief sub-VFR
reductions are possible at times with showers and even a few
thunderstorms Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. South to
southwesterly winds continue at less than 15 kts.

Temporary restrictions could linger throughout the day Friday
as continued rain showers track through the Mid-Atlantic.
Conditions should improve throughout the day Saturday, with
winds flowing northwesterly in the wake of the front. VFR
conditions for most of the weekend, with additional rain showers
possible beginning late Sunday into Monday as a second cold
front pushes through.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast through Wednesday as
high pressure pushes offshore. By Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, expect the potential for southerly channeling due to the
high offshore and incumbent trough from the northern Ohio River
Valley. Confidence in this occurring is low with a focus over the
middle and open waters.

Winds shift northwesterly on Saturday in the wake of a cold
front, potentially crossing SCA thresholds by the afternoon. Winds
temporarily diminish on Sunday evening before increasing to 20
knot gusts ahead of a second cold front on Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/EST/SRT
MARINE...KLW/EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion