511
FXUS61 KLWX 290116
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoP forecast updated to account for lingering showers this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Lingering showers in central Virginia through late evening,
  then only isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
  Sunday.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing
  thunderstorm chances by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers in central Virginia through
late evening, then only isolated showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

A mid/upper trough axis remains to our west this evening, with
jet streak dynamics assisting in lift across the Mid Atlantic
despite a surface boundary pushing south of the area. A few
showers have continued to intermittently development where low
level moisture and CAPE is greater across central Virginia.
These should diminish during the late evening hours. A
secondary front will push southward overnight, allowing lower
dew points to spill southward. This drier air and brief uptick
in winds may mitigate fog in most areas, but guidance does still
show river valley fog west of the Blue Ridge where winds should
be calm and air temperatures drop more efficiently.

High pressure will pass north of the area Saturday and then off
the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday. Most areas should remain dry and
seasonable Saturday, although an inverted surface trough may
result in isolated showers along the Allegheny Mountains.
Southerly flow returns Sunday, bringing increasing heat and
humidity. A passing shortwave trough may support a few showers
and thunderstorms developing, especially closer to the MD/PA
border.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing
thunderstorm chances by midweek.

Models are generally in good agreement that a strong mid-level ridge
builds across the southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic during the
early to middle part of next week. Well above normal temperatures
for late August can be expected as highs reach the lower to mid 90s.
Hot and humid conditions are likely as heat indices reach the upper
90s and possibly the lower 100s.

A more notable mid-level disturbance will progress from the northern
High Plains to the Northeast toward the middle of next week. The
ridge will be suppressed as a result, but it remains uncertain how
much and how quickly this happens. The latest trend in the ensemble
guidance is for the upper ridge over the Mid-South to be a bit
further west. If this pans out, our area in the Mid-Atlantic will be
in a more favorable location along the periphery of the ridge to be
impacted by passing MCSs. Eventually, by mid week it looks like the
upper ridge retreats enough to allow the shortwave troughs to move
over our area. Several of the AI models indicate increasing severe
potential at some point Tuesday through Friday, which is certainly
possible given the high instability that will be in place, along
with substantial upper-level support from any strong disturbance.
It`s also possible a back door cold front tries to drop into the
area by Wednesday or Thursday, leading to greater uncertainty in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The risk for a shower seems to be pushing south of CHO now.
There is some risk for fog or low clouds at CHO late tonight
into Saturday morning, but confidence is low due to dry air
advection.

Otherwise, light north to northeast winds prevail through
midday Saturday before becoming southeasterly by late in the
day. VFR conditions prevail Saturday and Saturday evening but
there is some low cloud and fog potential Saturday night,
especially at CHO.

The chance for significant weather is low Sunday through
Tuesday, but will need to monitor for pop-up showers and
thunderstorms depending on the timing/placement of upper
disturbances. There may be a greater chance of a thunderstorm
by Wednesday, but the timing of the next front remains
uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
Late tonight, a secondary front will push southward, resulting
in a surge of north to northeast winds. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued along the Chesapeake from 2 AM until 9 AM
Saturday.

Generally favorable marine conditions expected this weekend
into early next week, with winds around 10 knots. North winds to
start the day Saturday become east to southeast by the
afternoon, then south on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed Sunday afternoon into Sunday night due to southerly
channeling.

South to southwest winds continue Monday through Wednesday,
generally below advisory criteria, but will need to monitor for
channeling episodes. At the moment, thunderstorm chances are 20
percent or less each day, dependent on timing and placement of
upper level disturbances.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday
for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW/KRR
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion