792
FXUS61 KLWX 080845
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry and milder through Wednesday.

- 2) Much cooler conditions return for Thursday through
     Saturday, along with chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and milder through Wednesday.

Heights aloft will rebound later today while the pressure
gradient relaxes substantially leading to slightly warmer
temperatures and noticeable lighter winds this afternoon.

A dry cold front will then cross the area Monday, leading to
gusty northwest winds returning. There isn`t much of a thermal
or moisture gradient/discontinuity with this front, so high
temperatures will likely be similar to Sunday when combined with
downsloping effects.

Another sfc trough will move across the region Tuesday.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees above average as there
could be a warming surface wind out of the southwest. Highs
will reach the middle 60s to lower 70s with upper 50s to near 60
in the mountains. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the upper
30s to mid 40s. Once the front moves through, a surface high
pressure will quickly build into and across the region for
Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to remain above
average by a few degrees and the day to be dry. Highs in the
middle to upper 60s with middle 50s in the mountains. The high
quickly moves east by Wednesday night. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
The colder temperatures could support some frost/freeze concerns
where the growing season continues mainly east of the Blue
Ridge.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler conditions return for Thursday through
Saturday, along with chances for precipitation.

Model guidance is in very good agreement that a very deep trough
will dig southward across the Eastern half of the CONUS late in
the week. While there`s good agreement that a longwave pattern
with troughing in the East and ridging in the West will set up,
there are still considerable differences with respect to the
finer forecast details during that time, with several individual
lobes of vorticity interacting and then combining to ultimately
dig out the deeper longwave trough.

In terms of sensible weather, clouds will be on the increase on
Thursday as the upper trough digs to our west. Despite the increase
in cloud cover, temperatures are still forecast to be seasonable,
with highs generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. An area of low
pressure is expected to form downstream of the digging trough, but
there`s still some spread with respect to where exactly it will form
and how it will track. Some solutions (such as the 12z Euro) have
the low tracking directly overhead on Thursday and then offshore
Thursday night into Friday, while others (such as the 12z GFS) have
the low forming to our south over the Carolinas and then tracking
northeastward toward just east of the Delmarva. In most of these
scenarios, precipitation would likely break out in the form of
rain across much of the forecast area on Thursday.

In any of the above scenarios colder air will start to filter into
the area from the north Thursday night into Friday. Depending on the
ultimate track and strength of the low, some locations may
transition over from rain to snow Thursday night into Friday. As is
often the case, chances for snow will be greater as one goes higher
up in elevation and further to the northwest.

If the absolute coldest solutions were to verify, many locations
could see their first flakes of the season, although accumulations
would still be unlikely at lower elevations with marginal
temperatures in place. A more likely scenario is for precipitation
to stay all rain at lower elevations with snow mixing in at the
higher elevations. The Alleghenies will have the greatest chance for
accumulating snow, but even there there`s still considerable spread,
due to the uncertainty in the finer scale details within the trough
and the ultimate track/strength of the low.

Most guidance suggests that precipitation should begin to wind down
by late Friday night, but a few solutions keep lingering light
precipitation through much of the day Saturday. Either way,
temperatures look to remain cool, with highs in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

P6SM SKC and W winds 08g16kt. Some LLWS is possible tonight as
sfc winds decouple, but strengthen aloft. Stronger NW winds Mon
gusting up to 30 kt. Lighter winds Tue and Wed.

VFR conditions and light winds are expected during the day
Wednesday. Winds will turn easterly on Thursday and then eventually
northerly Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected through much
of the day Thursday along with chances for rain. Sub-VFR conditions
appear possible by Thursday night as ceilings start to lower.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will continue to diminish through the day today. Have
canceled some SCAs where winds have already diminished. Winds
strengthen substantially on Monday in the wake of a dry cold
front. Have issued new SCAs for Monday, which may need to be
extended for some parts of the waters Monday night.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters on
Wednesday. Wind will become easterly on Thursday and then
northerly Thursday night. Small Craft Advisory level winds
appear possible in northerly flow Thursday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ008.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ036>039-050-
     051-502.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ040-055-056-
     501-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ530>534-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ535>538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ537.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion