126
FXUS61 KLWX 051400
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light wintry precipitation chances return through midday today
as low pressure passes to the south. High pressure briefly
returns this weekend before a strong cold front tracks across
the region Sunday evening. Canadian high pressure builds in
early next week before another clipper-like system nears the
area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steady light snow continues as of mid morning along and south of
a line from roughly Franklin WV to Baltimore MD. Brief moderate
snow was being observed upstream over eastern KY into southern
WV. This area will pivot east-northeast with not much northward
progress to where snow is being observed currently. As forcing
wanes, snow will taper to flurries and end between 10AM-2PM.

Today will provide the coldest temperatures of the season so
far. The current forecast package suggests most do not escape
the low/mid 30s. Some upper 30s are possible over far southern
Maryland and back across the Allegheny mountain valleys. Clouds
should dominate today`s forecast, although some late day
clearing cannot be ruled out near the Shenandoah Valley.

Heading into the night, low stratus linger across the region
with some patchy fog possible as well. Given sub-freezing
overnight conditions, this may yield some instances of freezing
fog. Thus, for those out and about tonight, exercise some
caution as fog droplets freeze on contact with untreated
surfaces. Nighttime low temperatures will fall into the upper
teens to 20s, accompanied by light winds as weak high pressure
builds in. Any melted snow will refreeze overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive longwave pattern continues through the weekend
ahead. A series of embedded shortwaves race across the central
to eastern U.S., but with very limited access to moisture. An
overall tranquil weather pattern sets up for much of the
weekend. This comes with moderating temperatures, but still
remaining chilly. Relative to early December climatology, the
forecast of widespread low/mid 40s (30s in the mountains) is
around 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Each day will bring a mix of clouds and sun, with slightly more
cloud cover on Sunday ahead of the next system. Some
precipitation chances arrive by Sunday afternoon/evening across
the Allegheny Front. Given low Froude numbers, any spillover of
this activity to downstream locations appears less likely.
Forecast temperatures are close to freezing at times so a mix of
rain/snow is expected. Snow amounts up to an inch are possible,
perhaps slightly higher if precipitation types remain all snow.

The accompanying cold front sweeps across the region on Sunday
evening which ushers in another round of modified Canadian air.
A blustery post-frontal northwesterly wind yields increasing
gusts into Sunday night. Gusts up to 20 to 30 mph are possible
over the higher terrain. Low temperatures fall into the 20s,
with mid/upper teens in the mountains (single digit wind
chills).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build toward the area from the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley during the day Monday. Gusty north-northweseterly winds
ahead of the approaching high will maintain a cold airmass across
the area. Highs will only make it into the 30s (20s mountains), and
gusty winds will make it feel even colder. Otherwise, a mixture of
sun and clouds is expected.

Thereafter, a series of clipper lows will track to our north through
the middle of the week. Forecast spread increases markedly from
Wednesday onward, especially with respect to temperatures. Dry
conditions are expected for most on Tuesday and Wednesday,
although upslope rain and snow showers may be possible in the
Alleghenies. Chances for precipitation increase across the
remainder of the forecast area by Thursday into Thursday night as
the strongest in the series of clippers passes to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With low pressure passing by to the south, a band of light
wintry precipitation is overspreading the region through midday.
All terminals should see some period of light snow during this
period, with the best chances across KCHO. Restrictions will be
commonplace as ceilings lower as the air mass continues to
saturate. A mixture of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
throughout the day. As precipitation ends by around midday, this
could taper off into a light freezing drizzle in spots. Low
ceilings persist into tonight as stratus continue to blanket the
area.

VFR conditions are likely to return over the weekend as high
pressure briefly builds in. Gradients are rather weak so winds
will be variable at times. A stronger cold front arrives Sunday
evening leading to blustery northwesterly winds on Sunday night.

VFR conditions appear likely on both Monday and Tuesday. Gusty north-
northwesterly winds are expected on Monday, before winds turn out of
the south on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds remain northerly through the day given high pressure over
New England and low pressure passing by over the southeastern
U.S.

For the weekend, winds stay in the 5 to 10 knot range owing to
high pressure over the area. However, a stronger cold front
crosses the waters on Sunday evening which yields another surge
of cold blustery winds. Small Craft Advisories will be needed by
Sunday night for these increasingly gusty northwesterly winds.

SCA level winds appear likely in north-northwesterly flow on Monday,
and then again in southerly flow on Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ013-014-016>018-504.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-053>057-501>504-507-
     508-526-527.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ055-505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/DHOF
NEAR TERM...BRO/DHOF
SHORT TERM...BRO/DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion