459
FXUS61 KLWX 161416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Storm Prediction Center introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather for southern MD tonight. Increased PoPs east of I-95 to
accommodate this threat. Otherwise, no changes were made to the
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heat and humidity returns Thursday, along with chances for
  severe thunderstorms.

- 2) A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and
  thunderstorms overnight tonight.

- 3) Drier conditions expected over the mid-Atlantic as high
  pressure settles into the region at the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns Thursday, along with
chances for severe thunderstorms.

A strong disturbance will move through the Great Lakes Wednesday
night. As low pressure develops at the surface over the eastern
Great Lakes and intensifies, an associated warm front will lift
quickly to the north and bring in much warmer and more humid air
from the south and southwest Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. This rich summertime airmass will surge ahead of an
affiliated cold front by midday Thursday into the afternoon.
Winds will increase out of the southwest to west at all levels
of the atmosphere. The combination of the warm and humid air
surge ahead of the cold front and increasing winds will result
in the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday
into Thursday evening. As of now, the Storms Prediction Center
has our entire forecast region in a Slight Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms for Thursday and Thursday night. We will see high
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday but then
also see these high temperatures reach the middle 90s on
Thursday. Dewpoint temperatures will also climb midweek to reach
the middle to upper 60s on Thursday. The main threat with these
possible severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds given the
wind field. However; we also can`t rule out large hail. We`ll
continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms for
Thursday. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy,
potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph. The cold front should
move through the region Thursday night and bring a refreshing
cool and dry airmass from the northwest for Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s for
the upcoming weekend, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifting through the region brings
showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight.

High pressure will keep cool and dry conditions in the region
this morning. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s for most with highest elevations in the
Alleghenies staying in the 60s. A warm front lifting through the
region combined with shortwave energy aloft, bring an increased
risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in southern
MD. To accommodate this risk, SPC has much of the Chesapeake
Bay and portions of Southern MD in a marginal risk for severe
weather overnight. Any convection will be elevated in nature,
but adequate shear and lift may lead to gusty winds and hail
within stronger storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Drier conditions expected over the Mid-Atlantic as
high pressure settles into the region at the end of the week.

Rain showers remain possible Friday morning as Thursday`s cold front
slides to the south, transitioning offshore off of the Carolina
coast by Saturday. Temperatures drop a bit once the cold front
passes through, with highs potentially in the upper 70s and low 80s
on Saturday and much drier dewpoints in the low 50s moving in as
high pressure tracks over the Mid-Atlantic. This upper-level ridging
persists through the weekend, while another area of low pressure
develops over the Great Lakes and begins to track through the region
at the start of next week. This system will bring the next chance
for rain showers, with a few thunderstorms possible between Monday
and Tuesday. Severe probabilities remain low at this time, although
a very low-end chance exists in ML models. Temperatures gradually
increase during this period, with highs back up in the upper 80s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through mid-week. High pressure is forecast to
dominate today, before a warm front lifts to the northeast
tonight. Some showers may accompany this warm front into
Wednesday morning, but restrictions are not looking likely.
Winds northwest through midday today with afternoon gusts 15 to
20 knots. Winds shift to southwesterly this afternoon then
south-southeasterly tonight. An eventual return to the southwest
is expected Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. VFR conditions
expected Thursday. Background winds will be out of the
southwest on Thursday, and could gust to in excess of 30 knots
at times. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions and even
stronger winds may be possible in thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon.

Temporary sub-VFR conditions are still possible early Friday as
the cold front transitions out of the region, but otherwise VFR
conditions will persist through Sunday. Winds shift to out of
the northwest on Friday, with gusts potentially between 20-25
knots on Saturday afternoon before diminishing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gradient weakens today with 5 to 10 knots expected. Winds
shift to southwest Wednesday which may support Small Craft
Advisories for portions of the waters. SCAs appear likely on
Thursday in southwesterly flow. Gales may even be possible.
SMWs will also likely be needed as thunderstorms move over the
waters on Thursday.

Winds diminish some on Friday, with gusts settling below SCA levels
by the evening hours. Winds pick back up mid-morning Saturday above
SCA thresholds before diminishing again late in the evening. Winds
flow west to northwesterly through Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will ramp up once again later today into Wednesday, which
could bring tides at Annapolis into Minor tidal flooding again.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion