120
FXUS61 KLWX 161511
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Localized dense fog exists across portions of the Alleghenies.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally dense fog possible through midday.

- 2) Two frontal boundaries may bring additional showers and
  variable temperatures later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally dense fog possible through midday.

Patchy dense fog exists across mainly the higher hills of the
Alleghenies. Should burn off over next couple hours. Previous
discussion follows...

Expect clouds to stick around for most of, if not the entire day.
The CAD wedge in place due to yesterday`s rain is going to take a
while to break and probably won`t entirely erode north of I-66 and
east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins. The best chance for clearing will
be in the central Shenandoah Valley to the central VA Piedmont and
these areas could see temps reach the low 50s this afternoon. Temps
only reach the 40s where clouds remain.

High pressure moves over the area tonight with a stalled frontal
boundary nearby. Conditions appear favorable for another round of
low clouds and/or fog overnight tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Two frontal boundaries may bring additional
showers and variable temperatures later this week.

It should be well into the 50s Tue and Wed as a warm front sets up
well north of the area. A few showers are possible across northern
areas Wednesday. Uncertainty in temperature forecast begins to
increase Thu as a backdoor front pushes into the area. A developing
warm front associated with a potent Great Lks surface low will bring
better chances of rain areawide Thu afternoon- Fri while a pair of
sfc lows ride along the stalled frontal zone. Fri continues to have
the largest spread with respect to temperatures with over 20 deg
spread with high temperatures ranging anywhere from 40 to 60
degrees. Trends from the past 10 runs from the ECMWF have also shown
substantial variability with temps as high as 70F several days ago
now down to 42 on the most recent 12Z run. A notable cold front
crosses the area at the end of the week or early next week bringing
noticeably colder temperatures to start the last week of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low clouds are expected to stick around most of the day, with
conditions improving from IFR to MVFR sometime this afternoon.
Could see conditions go VFR late afternoon into early this
evening, though clouds will be present.

Another round of low clouds and/or fog is possible overnight tonight
into Tuesday morning. The chances are currently highest at BWI/MTN,
but could also occur at the other terminals.

Fair weather Tue and Wed with just mid and high level clouds and
only a slight chance of a shower. A backdoor front entering the area
will bring a wind shift to the terminals, except perhaps at CHO.
Chance of showers increase from south to north Thu afternoon into
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Departing low pressure has increased northerly winds across most of
the waters. Gusts of 20-25 knots are expected through early this
afternoon where Small Craft Advisories are in place. Winds quickly
diminish this evening into tonight as high pressure moves
overhead.

SCA conditions are possible Tue night into Thu morning, particularly
across the southern waters due to strengthening flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore winds return tonight into Tuesday which is expected to
result in higher tide levels across the area. Many sensitive
locations could reach Action Stage during high tide, with
Annapolis possibly reaching minor flood stage during the Tuesday
high tide cycles.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion