027
FXUS61 KLWX 140154
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
854 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes were made to the forecast. Will continue to monitor
tonight`s temperatures as areas within the growing season should
near the freezing mark.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Brisk conditions expected through this weekend with
  scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.

- 2) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures continue
  through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brisk conditions expected through this weekend
with scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.

The center of a trailing upper low is currently situated across
south-central Pennsylvania. As this system tracks off to the
east, additional scattered snow showers are possible tonight
through Sunday morning. Highest chances for accumulation will
likely be focused near western Garrett County and surrounding
areas, with up to an additional 0.5" accumulation possible.

As the broad system gradually tracks offshore, clouds may be slow to
clear during the weekend until the start of next week. In the wake
of the system`s stemming cold front, temperatures will be noticeably
colder over the next several days along with gusty winds that will
persist through the weekend, creating overall brisk conditions
outside. Daily highs through the weekend range in the 40s and 50s,
with cooler temperatures over the mountains, as well as strong
northwesterly winds gusting up to 20-30 knots at times, potentially
stronger at high elevations. Overnight, temperatures range in the
20s and 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for eastern
counties still in the growing season for tonight, with the 2026
growing season ending thereafter. Overall, expect nighttime
freezing to near-freezing temperatures to persist over the next
several days, with winds diminishing sometime between late
Sunday and Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
continue through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.

Looking a quiescent weather pattern for much of the new workweek. No
hazardous weather is expected with dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. The upper-level trough will exit east of the area
Monday with a building upper-level ridge as surface high
pressure pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. 1032-1036 mb
high pressure will meander west of the area Monday before
shunting south toward west-central VA and southwest VA midweek.
The high will drift offshore Thursday into Friday leading to
further warming into the upcoming weekend as the ridge continues
to build.

As a result, expect winds decrease substantially from what we saw
over the weekend as the high settles nearby. Temperatures will
remain below normal under north to northwesterly flow through
Tuesday before winds shift to the west and south late next week.
Given the surface high nearby and lighter winds at the surface,
expect several nights of ample radiational cooling. This will
lead to widespread lows near or below freezing outside of the
urban centers and tidal shorelines. Since the growing season
ends November 15th, no additional frost/freeze headlines will be
issued.

High temperatures will push back into the mid to upper 50s Monday
(40s mountains) with mid to upper 60s late next week. Dry conditions
will persist through the weekend despite a potential trough/low
pressure system developing in the vicinity of southeast U.S.
coast. The pattern looks to potentially change once again before
the Thanksgiving holiday travel week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A residual stratocumulus deck remains across the region this
evening. However, with broken ceilings around 4,500 to 6,000
feet, conditions do remain VFR at this time.

No significant precipitation is anticipated at terminals for
tonight & tomorrow. Earlier gusty NW winds have begun to drop
off after dark before turning calm a bit overnight. Such winds
turn gusty again throughout the day Saturday, peaking up to
25-30 knots in the afternoon at KDCA & KIAD. Gusts up to 20
knots remain possible through Sunday afternoon before
diminishing by Monday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday through Friday next
week. Winds will taper out of the north and northwest Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will switch
back to the west and eventually south/southwest late week. Speeds
generally less than 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue through at least Sunday morning as gusty winds up to
20-30 knots persist across the Chesapeake Bay in the wake of a
strong cold front. Additional SCAs may be necessary until Monday
morning depending on how slow winds are to diminish. Winds across
the tidal Potomac are a bit weaker, diminishing some during the
overnight period and likely trending below SCA thresholds
during the daytime by Sunday. Winds generally flow northwesterly
through this period.

SCAs will likely continue for portions of the waters though Monday
with sub-SCA level conditions returning Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure settles nearby. No marine hazards are expected mid to
late week. Winds will remain out of the north and northwest Monday
into Tuesday before turning west to south late week at less than 15
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Over the next several days, breezy conditions continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the valleys.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps closer to
the upper 20s in the typical dry spots in the valleys along and west
of the Blue Ridge.

Given recent fire activity in the past several days, there could be
some issues each afternoon when winds peak and RHs drop to their
lowest. Winds will begin to taper off Monday into Tuesday, but RHs
will remain low, and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not
be surprised if early next week has a day that needs closer
attention.

No precipitation is expected east of the Alleghenies through
late next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ005-006-008-016-505>508.
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     VAZ055-056.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/EST/SRT
AVIATION...BRO/EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion