296
FXUS61 KLWX 030116
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will build over the area overnight through
Friday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will cross the area
overnight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A
secondary cold front and area of low pressure will pass through
the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A backdoor cold front, currently slicing southwestward across
southeastern Pennsylvania, will slowly continue to move in
toward our CWA from the northeast. Low temperatures will be in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A brief ridge of high pressure will erode to a shortwave from
the west on Friday. The backdoor cold front will move into our
region and bank up against the Blue Ridge on Friday. A low
pressure system will move into the Great Lakes, bringing a
stronger cold front to the region for the weekend.
The backdoor cold front will become the focus area for higher
POPs Friday, before expanding eastward as a second front
approaches the region. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms begins Friday evening and remain restricted to
near and west of the Blue Ridge until the weekend.
High temperatures could get into the upper 70s to mid 80s on
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A stronger cold front will move into the region Saturday into
Saturday night. Rain chances increase from west to east Saturday
afternoon/evening with the steadiest rain arriving Saturday
night. WPC QPF has the area getting around an inch of rain total
late week into Saturday with some locally higher totals along
the Alleghenies. Will continue to monitor the flood threat.
High temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday, keeping
us in the 60s to low 70s at best.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A lingering low pressure will continue to move through the area late
in the weekend with an associated cold front. Widespread showers
will build in early Sunday with isolated thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation will be most steady early in the day with continued
chances throughout the remainder of the weekend and into early
Monday. Frontal boundaries will linger through at least midweek with
renewed shower and thunderstorms chances, especially each afternoon.
The unsettled pattern looks to stick around even into the later part
of next week.
Temperatures will start out in the low to mid 70s on Sunday before
gradually warming a few degrees each day, with mid to late week
highs getting into the mid to upper 80s to even some low 90s for the
lower elevations. Overnight lows will mostly be in the upper 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday with high pressure
and fair weather cumulus. Clouds increase through the day
Friday with onshore flow and an approaching cold front from the
west. Sub-VFR cigs could reach the terminals by Friday night,
and continue through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms as
the front moves through.
Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday as showers and thunderstorms
impact the terminals throughout the day. Gusty southerly winds early
on Sunday will slowly subside by the midday and remain lighter into
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A surge of slightly stronger winds could move over the waters
with a backdoor cold front overnight, but confidence is also
low regarding duration of SCA criteria gusts.
Onshore flow strengthens by Friday afternoon and SCAs are in
effect. Additional advisories will likely be needed continuing
through Saturday as low pressure and an associated cold front
approaches over the weekend.
SCAs will be possible early Sunday morning before winds diminish
through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters,
cannot rule out an isolated SMW, especially early Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels late Friday through
Sunday. Minor coastal flooding expected during the weekend,
especially by Saturday night. Sensitive shoreline like Annapolis and
Straits Point could approach moderate flood levels.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Well above normal temperatures this past afternoon, where record
high temperatures were either broken or tied as we saw a few
sites reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Below is a list of
daily high temperature records.
====================================================================
Record Daily High Temperatures for Thursday 05/02
====================================================================
Site Thursday 05/02 value (Year record was set)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Record Highs Thursday 05/02
Sites Records/Year Forecast High
Washington DC (DCA) 91/2018 90
Dulles(IAD) 88/2018 89
Baltimore, MD (BWI) 90/2018 93
Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 95/1942 86
Charlottesville, VA (CHO) 91/2018 89
Hagerstown, MD (HGR) 90/2018 86
Annapolis, MD (NAK) 90/1992 84
=================================================================== =
Site Legend
------------------------
DCA area - Washington DC
BWI area - Baltimore MD Table Legend
IAD area - Sterling/Dulles VA ------------------------
MRB area - Martinsburg WV Temperature (Year)
CHO area - Charlottesville VA
HGR area - Hagerstown MD
NAK area - Annapolis MD
Although the facilities (airports, etc.) where temperatures are
currently observed were built in the mid to late 20th century,
additional temperature records taken at nearby sites before that
extend the valid periods of record back into the late 1800s (except
for IAD, where records go back to 1960).
Record Event Reports (RERs) are only issued for the sites denoted
with a (*).
All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed by the
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...KLW/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KLW/ADM
MARINE...KLW/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS
CLIMATE...LFR
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion