202
FXUS61 KLWX 030806
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes in the forecast. A broad swath of light
rain aligns the cold front on the north side across the central
portions of our region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times through
  Sunday.

- 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue
  Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times
through Sunday.

A broad area of light rain extends from Highland County to
Northeast Maryland. This activity is on the north side of a cold
front that continues to push southward into southern Virginia.
Elsewhere, dry air will work into the region from the north and
northwest.

Strong high pressure will pass north of the area today while
the front stalls just to our south. Southern stream moisture
will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the north, but
there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line between rain
and no rain. The trend has been for a further north track, so
have shifted rain chances about 20 to 30 miles north with the
latest forecast package.

A wave of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary
tonight into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance of
some heavier rain spreading northward into the area. The Weather
Prediction Center does have our eastern areas in a Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Outlook, and this seems plausible given the
potential for a surge of 2"+ PWATs. Rain that does occur will
likely exit the area Sunday evening.

Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of
cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for
most areas over the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...First widespread frost and freeze potential west of
the Blue Ridge early next week.

Significant pattern change for the first full week of Oct. CAA
behind a departing trof will bring the coldest air of the fall thus
far to the region. A robust area of Canadian high pressure moves
into the area Mon night through mid-week. Consequently, this is
forecast to bring a true autumnal feel to the air with daily temps
well below average. For Tue and Wed, forecast highs will generally
range from the upper 50s to 60s, with mountain locales mainly in the
50s. Looking at overnight conditions, the dry nature of the air mass
allows temperatures to plummet at night. Areas west of the Blue
Ridge can expect widespread mid/upper 30s on Mon and Tue nights.
Would not be surprised if some areas just east of the Blue Ridge or
in northern Maryland have frost as well. This will also include some
pockets of upper 20s to near the freezing mark. Given the growing
season continues across the region, there will be a threat of some
frost/freeze conditions both of those nights. For those with
sensitive outdoor vegetation, plans should be made to ensure their
safety in these conditions.

Although Canadian high pressure moves off the coast toward the
mid/late week period, the overall pattern will remain dry throughout
next week. Temps slowly rebound through the week as forecast highs
return to the low/mid 70s. Nighttime lows remain chilly, but the
threat for frost/freeze conditions should diminish beyond Wed
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is moving to the south of the area. Light rain has
developed on the north side of the front from CHO to IAD and DCA
to BWI and MTN.

The front will stall to the south over the weekend, but its
position remains uncertain. Rain chances have increased area-
wide today as the stalled front is trending a bit further
north. Some heavier rain could move north into most areas by
Sunday morning as an area of low pressure develops along the
front.

Any sub-VFR conditions would likely be limited to CHO today, but
could spread northward Sunday.

VFR conditions early to middle parts of next week. Expect
NW`ly winds on Mon with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. As high
pressure crosses the region, winds shift to N`ly by Tue before
shifting to S-S`ly by mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for this threat through
early this afternoon.

After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a second cold
front pushes through on Monday.

Behind a cold front, NW`ly winds will increase throughout
Mon evening into early Tuesday. SCAs are likely going to be needed
during this uptick in the winds. As Canadian high pressure moves in,
wind speeds begin to drop off thereafter.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be on the decrease as high pressure builds on
the northwest side of the front that continues to push south.

Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion