818
FXUS61 KLWX 111814
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
214 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure over the Northeast will persist
through early next week. Francine is expected to track from the
northern Gulf Coast to the middle Mississippi River Valley while
weakening and eventually dissipating through this weekend. An area
of low pressure will likely develop off the Southeast Coast and move
toward the Carolinas early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure was drifting toward the New England Coast as of
mid afternoon, and will move offshore tonight. A ridge of high
pressure extends southwestward from the center of the high
through the Mid-Atlantic.

Skies will stay mostly clear tonight, with many locations also
decoupling and going calm. Some fog may be possible, both in the
typical river/sheltered valley locations across central VA and
west of the Blue Ridge, and east of US-15. Overnight lows will
be in the 50s for most, with lower 60s in downtown DC/Baltimore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain anchored off the New England Coast
through Friday night with a ridge of high pressure continuing
to extend southwestward from the high across the Mid-Atlantic.
Further to the west, the remnants of Francine are forecast by
NHC to slowly move northward through the lower Mississippi River
Valley, before its northward progress is eventually halted in
the vicinity of the bootheel of MO by a strong blocking upper
ridge to the north over the Great Lakes.

After a mostly sunny start Thursday, some high cirrus on the
northeastern periphery of the system will begin to work into
southwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
These cirrus clouds will eventually expand further northward
Thursday night into the day Friday. Some lower clouds may also
try to form within easterly low-level flow later Thursday night
into Friday morning. Despite the increasing cloud cover, mainly
dry conditions are expected to continue overall. Highs are
forecast to be in the low 80s for most on both Thursday and
Friday, with mid-upper 70s in the mountains. Overnight lows
will generally be in the upper 50s and lower 60s as dewpoints
start to increase slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Northeast will keep
conditions dry and mild Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures each
day will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with highest elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
50s to low 60s for most.

Precipitation chances return to the forecast area at the start of
next week as guidance indicates a possible low developing off the
coast of the Carolinas. High temperatures will be slightly cooler
with highs in the 70s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the upcoming
weekend. However, latest guidance (GLAMP, NAMNest, WRF-ARW, RAP
and HRRR) indicate the potential for IFR fog not only in the
typical sheltered/river valley locations affecting KCHO/KMRB,
but also east of US-15 possibly affecting the metro terminals
(especially KIAD) between 07Z-13Z as moisture gradually
increases on light easterly flow around high pressure to the
north. As moisture increases further through late in the week,
bouts of low clouds are possible especially early Friday. Little
to no precipitation is expected through the weekend, though a
spotty brief shower can`t be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...
Light easterly flow (with some fluctuations between southeast
and northeast) is expected through the upcoming weekend. The
gradient may strengthen enough to result in near SCA level gusts
over the wider waters off southern MD at times Thursday night
through Friday night, with a bit higher potential Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light onshore flow will likely cause tidal anomalies to increase
gradually over the next few days. This may bring sensitive sites
like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront close to minor flooding.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion