988
FXUS61 KLWX 040100
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
800 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
After a period of dense fog earlier, an area of steady rain was
crossing the I-95 corridor. Areas of fog and possibly drizzle
are anticipated in the wake of this rain overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Additional waves of showers are likely to move across the
  area through Wednesday.

- 2) Temperatures warm by the end of the week, continuing into
  the weekend and early next week. This comes with daily
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional waves of showers are likely to move
across the area through Wednesday.

Steady rain will pivot east of the Chesapeake Bay by midnight.
With forecast temperatures in the 40s, it will be an all rain
event with total amounts around 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Overnight
lows largely stay in the 40s underneath thick low clouds and
light southerly winds.

For Wednesday, have opted to lower temperatures considerably
based on the meandering front settling near/south of I-64. To
the north of the boundary, a northeasterly wind will help hold
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with 60s possible
closer to I-64. With upstream convection expected, some of the
residual showers are likely to slide across the region the
second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. The frontal zone
slowly lifts northward as a warm front overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures warm by the end of the week,
continuing into the weekend and early next week. This comes with
daily precipitation chances.

Shortwave troughing tracks over the forecast area early Friday
morning with upper level ridging building over the East Coast
through Saturday. Upper level troughing pivots overhead Sunday
into Monday as surface high pressure shifts offshore and return
flow ushers in moisture and warmer temperatures. High
temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s are expected each day
with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Some isolated areas
may reach 80 degrees on Friday and Saturday afternoon.

However, this all comes with the caveat of where the meandering
warm front settles. Much of the latest guidance indicates the
backdoor cold front may bring cooler temperatures to the region
on Friday. While the current forecast package calls for
widespread 70s, this could easily bring some 50s to the area
depending on where this front resides.

Although spring-like temperatures return this weekend,
increased precipitation chances also return each day as multiple
waves of low pressure track along stalled fronts across the
Mid-Atlantic. This may include a few thunderstorms depending on
how much instability develops during the afternoon hours. With
ongoing moderate drought conditions across the forecast area,
rainfall is expected to be beneficial at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR or lower continues to be observed at the TAF sites as of
00Z mainly from low CIGs but also occasionally lowered VSBY.
IFR is forecast through 03Z-06Z. Some improvements are possible
overnight to MVFR or even VFR. However, given the degree of
ground moisture from recent precipitation, could see these
improvements being a bit optimistic. On Wednesday, most spots
should stay around MVFR underneath thick clouds and mainly
northeasterly winds. Further shower activity arrives from
Wednesday afternoon into the night. For Thursday, the warm front
should finally pull north of the region with a better shot for
VFR conditions, albeit with some shower/thunderstorm chances.

Southwest winds Friday morning shift to southeast in the afternoon,
blowing 5 to 10 knots during the day. Winds become light and
variable overnight before gusting 15 to 20 knots out of the
southwest on Saturday. Periods of Sub-VFR conditions are possible
across all terminals due to precipitation chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Gradients remain on the weaker side while a frontal zone
meanders near the waters. There are some hints of a light
southerly wind developing across a few of the buoys. The
expectation is for a bit more southerly flow into this evening
and night. A brief uptick is possible across the Chesapeake Bay,
particularly later tonight. Thereafter, wind gusts stay well
below advisory levels on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
meandering boundary eventually lifts northward as a warm front
on Thursday. Warmer air on top of chilly waters will limit
overall vertical mixing potential.

Southwest winds remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.
Winds increase on Saturday, with gusts nearing SCA criteria over the
open waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion