262
FXUS61 KLWX 140821
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Mainly updated for
current conditions and a few minor tweaks in the aviation,
marine, and fire weather sections below.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Brisk conditions expected through this weekend with
scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.
- 2) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures continue
through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brisk conditions expected through this weekend
with scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.
With the core of an upper low set up to our northeast, flow
aloft has now turned out of the NNW. The surface low is now well
offshore, but the pressure gradient between this and an
approaching surface high form the west will keep winds elevated
throughout the day today and Sunday. Scattered snow showers are
being observed early this morning with a few streamers moving
off of Lake Erie and into our western mountains. Additional
rounds of snow showers are expected at times through Sunday
morning. Highest chances for accumulation will likely be focused
near western Garrett County and surrounding areas, with up to
an additional 0.5" accumulation possible.
As the broad system gradually tracks offshore, clouds may be slow to
clear during the weekend until the start of next week. In the wake
of the system`s stemming cold front, temperatures will be noticeably
colder over the next several days along with gusty winds that will
persist through the weekend, creating overall brisk conditions
outside. Daily highs through the weekend range in the 40s and 50s,
with cooler temperatures over the mountains, as well as strong
northwesterly winds gusting up to 20-30 knots at times, potentially
stronger at high elevations. Overnight, temperatures range in the
20s and 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for eastern
counties still in the growing season for tonight, with the 2026
growing season ending thereafter. Overall, expect nighttime
freezing to near-freezing temperatures to persist over the next
several days, with winds diminishing sometime between late
Sunday and Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
continue through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.
Looking a quiescent weather pattern for much of the new workweek. No
hazardous weather is expected with dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. The upper-level trough will exit east of the area
Monday with a building upper-level ridge as surface high
pressure pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. 1032-1036 mb
high pressure will meander west of the area Monday before
shunting south toward west-central VA and southwest VA midweek.
The high will drift offshore Thursday into Friday leading to
further warming into the upcoming weekend as the ridge continues
to build.
As a result, expect winds decrease substantially from what we saw
over the weekend as the high settles nearby. Temperatures will
remain below normal under north to northwesterly flow through
Tuesday before winds shift to the west and south late next week.
Given the surface high nearby and lighter winds at the surface,
expect several nights of ample radiational cooling. This will
lead to widespread lows near or below freezing outside of the
urban centers and tidal shorelines. Since the growing season
ends November 15th, no additional frost/freeze headlines will be
issued.
High temperatures will push back into the mid to upper 50s Monday
(40s mountains) with mid to upper 60s late next week. Dry conditions
will persist through the weekend despite a potential trough/low
pressure system developing in the vicinity of southeast U.S.
coast.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds turn gusty again today, peaking up to 25-30 knots in the
afternoon at KDCA & KIAD. Gusts up to 20 knots remain possible
through Sunday afternoon before diminishing by Monday. Both
afternoons will also see a prominent stratocu deck around 5kft
yet again.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday through Friday next
week. Winds will taper out of the north and northwest Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will switch
back to the west and eventually south/southwest late week. Speeds
generally less than 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Given continued breezy conditions, have extended the SCA through
all day Sunday, and have also added in the middle and upper
Potomac for the whole timeframe as well starting mid-morning
today. Expect wind gusts up to 20-30 knots to be persist during
this time. Additional SCAs may be necessary through Monday
morning depending on how slow winds are to diminish. Winds
generally flow northwesterly through this period.
SCAs will likely continue for portions of the waters though Monday
with sub-SCA level conditions returning Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure settles nearby.
No marine hazards are expected mid to late week. Winds will
remain out of the north and northwest Monday into Tuesday before
turning west to south late week at less than 15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Much colder air over the next few days in the wake of a departing
low pressure to our northeast. This will result in intermittent
upslope snow showers in the Allegheny Mountains through Sunday
morning. Elsewhere, brisk winds will continue through Monday with
waves of clouds. Temperatures will remain below normal through
Tuesday while high pressure gradually builds overhead into the
middle of next week.
Over the next several days, breezy conditions will continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the valleys.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps closer to
the upper 20s in the typical dry spots following frontal passages.
Winds will begin to taper off Monday, but RHs will remain low,
and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not be surprised if
early next week has a day that needs closer attention.
No rain is expected through at least the end of next week.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for MDZ005-006-008-
016-505>508.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ055-056.
WV...None.
MARINE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CJL/EST/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/EST/SRT
MARINE...CJL/EST/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion