190
FXUS61 KLWX 300632
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast outside of some tweaks to
temperatures for today. Benign weather continues through Halloween
weekend before changes next week.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Very warm conditions today, with seasonable temperatures an dry
conditions for Halloween weekend.

- 2) Rain chances will likely hold off until the second half of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm conditions today, with seasonable
temperatures an dry conditions for Halloween weekend.

A weak cold front is expected to cross the area this morning into
midday bringing some spotty sprinkles to the highest ridges of the
Alleghenies. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail with passing mid
and high level cloud cover. High pressure will return later this
afternoon and into the upcoming weekend ahead. The gradient between
the departing front and incoming high pressure will yield west to
northwest downsloping winds up to 25 mph.

Expect above normal temperatures as a result of the downsloping east
of the mountains. Compressional heating from the Alleghenies, Blue
Ridge, and Catoctins should push highs in the low to mid 70s (60s
mountains). Locations south of DC and down toward Charlottesville
have a shot to briefly touch 80 degrees given the very dry air ahead
of and behind the front.

Cooler temperatures return tonight into the upcoming weekend. Expect
much more seasonable weather for both Halloween Saturday and Sunday.
Highs both days will push into the 60s with overnight lows in the
30s and 40s. Expect more sunshine Saturday compared to Sunday given
the high nearby. Cloud cover will increase Sunday afternoon and
night as a shortwave trough passes south of the area. This trough
may touch off a shower or two Sunday night although most will remain
dry given the residual mid-level dry air with high pressure nearby.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances will likely hold off until the second
half of next week.

Models are arriving at better agreement that mid level ridging will
build along the east coast during the first half of next week. A
shortwave trough may cross the area Monday before the ridge takes
hold, and there is still an outside chance a few showers could occur
as it passes. At a minimum, expect cloudier conditions. Temperatures
will likely climb Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs reaching the 70s
for many areas.

A deep trough will approach from the west the second half of the
week. A low pressure system will likely be lurking over the Bahamas,
and some guidance suggests this system, or at least some of its
moisture, could be swept northward into the Mid Atlantic ahead of
the trough. While the details remain uncertain, expect increasing
rain chances in the Wednesday through Friday period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the
upcoming weekend as high pressure builds into the region. A dry cold
front will cross the terminals later this morning and into the
afternoon leading to some passing mid and high level cloud cover.
Winds will kick up in the wake of the front out of the west and
northwest with gusts between 20 to 25 kts. Highest gusts will be at
terminals near the waters and along the ridges. Winds will gradually
diminish Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as high pressure
settles overhead. Northerly winds will prevail through Saturday
night at less than 10 kts.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure
continues to meander nearby. Winds will turn to the south and
southeast and less than 15 kts. Significant weather is unlikely
Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves eastward. However, some
low chances of sub-VFR ceilings exist Monday or Monday night
depending on how the weather pattern evolves.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak/dry cold front will push across the waters this morning with
high pressure building south over the region this weekend. SCA
conditions are expected from late this morning through early
Saturday morning, especially over the open waters. This is largely
due in part to northerly channeling. Winds diminish below SCA level
Saturday morning before falling back below sub-SCA levels Saturday
afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue Sunday into Monday
with wedging high pressure meandering nearby. Winds will change to
the south and southeast as high pressure sits north and east of the
area. Speeds will generally be between 5-10 kts. Showers may impact
the middle and southern waters Monday afternoon as a wave of low
pressure approaches from the south and west. Better chances for
rain by the end of next week.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Offshore flow develops behind a cold frontal passage this morning
allowing tidal anomalies to drop over the next few days. Winds turn
back to the south Sunday afternoon leading to modest rises in
anomalies heading into early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion