808
FXUS61 KLWX 011842
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the current forecast package. Below normal
temperatures continue through Tuesday with a gradual warming trend
Wednesday into the weekend. Little to no improvement on drought
expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with a
chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm Tuesday.

2) Summer weather will return Thursday into the weekend as
temperatures rise and thunderstorm chances eventually increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Below normal temperatures continue through
Wednesday with a chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm Tuesday.

A cold front will continue to sag south and east of the area today
leading to an uptick in north to northeasterly winds as well as
mid/high level cloud cover. A sprinkle cannot be ruled out over the
lower bay and northern neck of VA through mid-afternoon although
most locations will remain dry. High temperatures will once again be
below average in mid to upper 70s (60s over the mountains). Lows
tonight will fall back into the upper 40s and mid 50s under clearing
skies.

By Tuesday, we watch a sharpening trough over the Mid-Atalntic/East
Coast and deepening low pressure off the southeast US coast. The
sharpening trough and resultant piece of weak shortwave energy looks
to push across the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon
touching off a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. This threat
will be brief and mainly tied to the mountains given better lift.
Precipitation will be limited with most seeing nothing at all.
Meanwhile , coastal low pressure will track up along the southeast
US coast and toward the Carolinas Wednesday before pushing out to
sea Thursday. This is due in part to broad 1024-1028 mb high
pressure shunting south from the Great Lakes region. In turn, expect
below normal temperatures to continue with highs Tuesday in the
upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall back
into the 40s and 50s. The warming trend ensues Wednesday as high
pressure settles overhead. Expect highs back closer to normal with
many locations pushing 80 degrees. Humidity will remain low along
with little to no rain through the midweek period.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Summer weather will return Thursday into the
weekend as temperatures rise and thunderstorm chances eventually
increase.

Broad high pressure will be centered over the central Appalachians
Thursday morning, drifting southeast and taking up residence off the
southeast coast Friday into the weekend. An upper ridge axis
initially centered over the Ohio valley will expand eastward,
although the ridge will flatten somewhat with time as several
troughs traverse the northern stream flow. The forecast for Thursday
through Saturday is fairly high confidence under the influence of
the ridge. The main story for this period will be a warming trend,
with some locations reaching 90 degrees by Friday and Saturday.
However, dew point rises will be modest, likely staying in the 50s,
so the heat index will be close to the air temperature. Most
locations will remain dry through Saturday, although it`s possible a
few showers or storms could sneak into the northwestern portions of
the forecast area Saturday afternoon or night depending on the
proximity of the forcing to the north.

Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday into Monday as models
differentiate in the strength and timing of northern stream
shortwaves and the subsequent breakdown of the southeast ridge.
There will be a nearly stationary front to the north, and this may
try to drop southward at some point as well. Thus chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday and Monday, but
coverage will be influenced the aforementioned features. It`s still
too early to determine if stronger thunderstorms will be possible
given the model spread, but machine learning guidance has been
consistently showing low probabilities of severe weather.
Temperatures will likely remain above normal, especially Sunday, but
will be dependent on the position of the boundary and any clouds or
precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will continue well south of the water this
afternoon leading to primary winds out of north/northeast heading
into this afternoon. Sustained winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected
with sporadic gusts up to 20 kts.

Winds turn easterly tonight bringing in lower cigs heading into
Tuesday. Leaning toward MVFR/low end VFR conditions amongst the
terminals at this time compared to IFR with confidence being lower
amongst the latest hi-res CAM guidance. A spotty shower or
thunderstorm could form Tuesday afternoon west of MRB/SHD, although
the greatest chance is over the central Appalachians (i,e
KLWB/KBKW). Winds pivot back to the north or northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing.

Significant weather is unlikely Thursday through Saturday. Light
west to southwest winds are expected each day.


&&

.MARINE...
A dry cold front will continue well south of the waters this
afternoon with north to northeasterly winds expected. A few sporadic
gusts up to 20 kts are possible over the wider waters through this
afternoon where SCAs are in place. SCAs are in effect for all waters
this evening into early Tuesday morning due to increased east to
northeasterly flow. This is largely due in part to an area of low
pressure passing offshore. Additional SCAs may be needed for
portions of the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday although guidance
has sub-SCA level conditions heading into the midweek period.
Greatest confidence for SCAs will be over the middle and wider
waters.

High pressure will slide over the area Thursday and move off the
southeast coast Friday and Saturday. West winds will become more
southerly with time. In general, winds should be light, but some
marginal southerly channeling events could unfold along the bay
during the evenings/overnights of some days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are declining this afternoon in the wake of a cold
front, but they might rise again toward the middle of the week
depending on the position and strength of low pressure developing
off the coast. Additional minor tidal flooding is most probable at
Annapolis with Wednesday morning`s high tide.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-541-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion