058
FXUS61 KLWX 080052
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
852 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for showers have been added to the forecast for
this afternoon along and southeast of a line that extends
roughly from Annapolis to DC to Culpeper to Waynesboro.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, with frost likely
  tonight in the Alleghenies.

- 2) Milder for the weekend with increasing rain chances. Below
  normal temperatures return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, with
frost likely tonight in the Alleghenies.

Conditions have dried out this evening with the front pushing
south of the area. A stubborn patch of clouds remain pinned up
against the Blue Ridge from Stanardsville to Lynchburg. These
clouds will slowly be eaten away in the next few hours as drier
air continues to advect in. A boundary is noted along I-70 and
east of the Blue Ridge where winds are southerly, while most
locations west of the Blue Ridge are observing west-northwest
winds. As the upper trough swings through tonight, winds across
the area should veer northwesterly overnight.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build to our south and
west, extending northeastward toward the Allegheny Front. As a
result, sheltered mountain valleys in the Alleghenies will
likely go calm later tonight. The combination of light winds and
clear skies will create ideal radiational cooling conditions
there, which should allow temperatures to drop back into the
30s. Frost Advisories have been issued tonight for Highland,
Pendleton, western Grant, and Garrett Counties. Further east,
light northwesterly wind will likely continue through the night
ahead of the building high. This should keep temperatures a few
degrees warmer, with lows in the low to mid 40s for most.

After a sunny start, some fair weather cumulus clouds should
develop in response to daytime heating tomorrow. Temperatures
will rebound nicely after a cool start, ultimately reaching
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another shortwave
disturbance will pass through on Saturday, potentially leading
to development of a few showers or thunderstorms. Much of the
day will remain dry however, with temperatures climbing into the
low to mid 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Milder for the weekend with increasing rain chances.
Below normal temperatures return early next week.

As surface high pressure moves offshore, and upper ridging builds
ahead of an approaching trough, this weekend looks to be quite warm
across the region. Highs Saturday rise into the mid 70s, while Sunday
could rise into the upper 70s to low 80s (subtract 7-10 degrees for
mountain locations. Both days will see chances for thunderstorms due
to an approaching cold front. Saturday will see storms along the pre-
frontal trough/leading shortwave, while Sunday will see the better
chance with along the actual cold front late in the day/evening into
Sunday night. While neither day currently exhibits a substantial
severe thunderstorm risk, some gusty winds and small hail can`t be
ruled out. A secondary wave of low pressure is likely to develop as
the front crosses the Mid-Atlantic, though it remains to be seen if
this enhances rainfall locally or causes it to "skip" over the
region as many systems have done recently.

In the wake of a somewhat active and warm weekend, cooler than
normal weather is set to return for the first half of next week
behind the front. Rain chances may linger into Monday morning before
departing as the aforementioned cold front swings offshore.

With high pressure building in from the west Monday night into
Tuesday, overnight low temperatures could feasibly drop into the mid
30s resulting in some frost potential for the Alleghenies heading
into early Tuesday morning.

As the high drifts offshore, the threat of a few pop up showers or
thunderstorms may re-emerge by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A patch of low clouds is producing MVFR CIGs at CHO. These
clouds should dissipate in the next few hours as drier air
advects into the region. After that, VFR conditions prevail
through Saturday.

The wind direction forecast is a challenging one over the next
24 hours at all TAF sites, with several large wind shifts
likely. Winds turn northwesterly overnight, and then westerly
during the day tomorrow. Winds may gust to around 20-25 knots
tomorrow afternoon within westerly flow. Winds turn southerly
tomorrow night and persist through Saturday. A few passing
showers or storms may also be possible on Saturday as a
disturbance passes to our north.

VFR conditions can be expected for much of Sunday. However, a
frontal boundary crosses the region during the late
afternoon/evening hours and into the overnight. Widespread rain
and a few thunderstorms can be expected as this front traverses
the region. Expect VSBY reductions and reduced CIGs during this
time.

Rain may linger into Monday morning, but should be out by mid-late
morning. This will give way to partly cloudy skies and NNW winds
around 15 to 20 knots by Monday afternoon.

Less wind and less clouds can be expected Tuesday, with VFR
conditions expected throughout.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are forecast to shift northwesterly tonight, and may
briefly gust to low-end SCA levels. Due to the short time
duration, those gusts will likely be highlighted in an MWS.
Winds tomorrow will generally be out of the west to southwest.
Gusts may potentially reach low-end SCA levels across the
narrower waters of the Upper Bay and Upper Tidal Potomac. Winds
become southerly tomorrow night through the day Saturday. Gusts
may reach SCA levels within channeled southerly flow tomorrow
night into Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will likely impact the
waters later in the day on Sunday afternoon. It remains to be seen
if these will be strong enough to require Special Marine Warnings.
The cold front will cross the waters early Monday with a shift to
northwesterlies with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed into much of Monday.

Winds will be a little less on Tuesday, so SCAs may not be
needed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MDZ509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KJP/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion