568
FXUS61 KLWX 070213
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
913 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Earlier showers have moved east of the area. A reinforcing cold
front is in the process of moving through.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

- 2) Dry weather much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A return to dry and seasonable weather this
weekend.

An upper trough axis will pivot through this evening along with
a reinforcing cold front. Earlier showers have moved east of
the area. Outside of a few upslope sprinkles or very light
showers in the Alleghenies this evening, dry conditions are
expected overnight.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along
with mainly dry conditions. Northwest breezes will gust 20 to 30
mph (locally 5-10 mph higher at higher elevations). A few
upslope rain or snow showers are possible Saturday along and
west of the Allegheny Front, with some stratocu possibly
drifting further east.

With high pressure building to the south, areas most likely to
see light to calm winds and clear skies ideal for radiational
cooling will be in central Virginia. The growing season remains
active east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains (except for
western Loudoun County in VA and Frederick County in MD). It is
possible frost or near freezing temperatures are observed during
the late night to early morning hours beginning late Saturday
night, with a gradual moderation possible by early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather much of next week.

Heading into next week, high pressure builds across our region
bringing dry and mostly sunny conditions through Thursday morning.
Ahead of a dry cold front, expect a brief warming trend of above-
average daytime temperatures that peak Tuesday afternoon. This cool
and dry airmass provides multiple opportunities for frost or freezing
overnight temperature late next week. Chances for showers return
Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system trails up the Mid-
Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through
the upcoming weekend, though some patchy early morning fog
can`t be ruled out near CHO. Winds are in the process of
shifting to out of the northwest this evening as a reinforcing
cold front moves through. Winds will remain out of the west to
northwest through the weekend. At least occasional gusts of
15-20 kts are possible later tonight following the frontal
passage. Gusts of 20-25 kts are likely during the daylight
hours, most likely peaking Saturday afternoon. CHO/MRB stand the
best chance of going light to calm each night through the
weekend.

VFR conditions persist through the beginning of next week at all
terminals. Northwesterly breezes are expected on Monday before
winds shift more southwesterly on Tuesday at lighter speeds.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds are expected early this evening before
winds shift to out of the west to northwest behind a cold
front. Overnight, gusts will increase in the wake of the front.
Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected at times much of the
weekend, and Small Craft Advisories will likely need to be
extended for much of the waters through Sunday.

Behind a dry cold front, gusty winds could sustain SCA conditions
through Monday evening. Northwesterly winds on Monday shift
southwesterly by Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/KVH
AVIATION...DHOF/KVH
MARINE...DHOF/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion