007
FXUS61 KLWX 110124
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
924 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch was cancelled. Overall thunderstorm threat is
diminishing, but can`t rule out some isolated activity
overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
  produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible
  Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of
which may produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible
Saturday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Earlier convection has weakened. The nearest upstream convection
is in Ohio. While some remnant of this activity could reach the
Alleghenies overnight, the near term thunderstorm risk is low,
so cancelled the Flood Watch early. A new cell recently
initiated over the Chesapeake Bay. SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z IAD
sounding indicate there is still some elevated instability, so a
few pop up showers or storms can`t be ruled out overnight. The
greatest chance looks to be along the Chesapeake Bay thanks to
the warmer waters and perhaps some weak warm/moist advection
aloft. Breaks in the clouds will be transient overnight, but
there could be some patchy fog where there is clearing.

Saturday...Tomorrow looks like a much more active day as a weak
cold front makes into the area and an upper shortwave-trough
moves across the area during peak heating. Expect thunderstorm
clusters to develop with very high coverage, but the coverage
of severe t-storms and instances of flooding still remain
uncertain. However, sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and
perhaps an instance of flash flooding or two are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions with lower humidity
for Monday and Tuesday. However, the subtropical ridge will build
over the central CONUS Tuesday and it will spread east toward the
Mid-Atlantic for Wednesday through Friday. The center of the ridge
will be off to the west, but there will be enough subsidence for a
return of hot conditions. Heat indices  around 100 degrees with
temperatures well into the 90s are most likely for the valleys and
urban areas. It may even turn out a bit hotter with respect to heat
indices depending on what dewpoints will mix down to around peak
heating each day. It does not appear that it will be as extreme as
it was earlier in the month, but still quite hot and humid for
Wednesday through the end of next week.

With the increased heat and humidity there may be some showers and
thunderstorms. A few of those storms can be strong, but confidence
is low at this time. Perhaps the best chance for storms will be
Friday where low-level moisture may be more prominent in response to
High pressure building over the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Earlier thunderstorms have dissipated, and it seems unlikely
much develops overnight. Some guidance does indicate a few
showers and storms developing near the Chesapeake Bay however.
Mid and high level clouds will remain abundant through the
night, but there could be some patchy fog if there are enough
breaks. Limited any mention to MVFR for now.

Saturday appears to have a much greater risk of thunderstorms,
which will likely cause some temporary flight restrictions.
Isolated severe storms and heavy rain rates are possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Model coverage remains
inconsistent, so have maintained PROB30 groups for now. Sub-VFR
ceilings are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning in
northeast flow behind a cold front.

VFR conditions are most likely Sunday afternoon through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light flow below 10 kt is expected through Saturday, but
t-storms Saturday may pose a risk of strong winds and frequent
lightning. SMWs may be required Saturday afternoon and evening.
Onshore flow may enhance Sunday into Sunday night before turning
southerly Monday.

A west to southwest flow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
may gust around SCA criteria during this time since there will be a
gradient between high pressure to the south and west vs lower
pressure to the north and east.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels will persist for the next couple of days
with minor coastal flooding becoming increasingly likely Monday
into Tuesday as southerly flow strengthens.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJL/ADS/LFR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/ADS/LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion