881
FXUS61 KLWX 101902
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
302 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected into early evening.
- Late-season frost/freeze expected Monday night west
of the Blue Ridge.
- Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms
midweek, with a warming trend late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected into early evening.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have formed ahead of a cold
front now in our western areas. NUCAPS data from 1809Z showed
CAPE values increasing over 1000 J/kg east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains, so expecting new convective development and currently
line of showers to strengthen and produce more lightning
activity. However, severe wx risk remains low due to weak
shear. Convection will start shifting east of the Chesapeake Bay
after 00Z tonight with frontal passage.
Additional rain is expected early Monday. Anafrontal rain may
hold off until closer to Monday morning as a deeper trough digs
southeastward and low pressure develops along the front to our
south. The timing of this wave and position of the baroclinic
zone remains a bit uncertain, but it`s possible a bulk of the
rain develops from central Virginia to southern Maryland.
Regardless of where the back edge of the rain sets up, it will
slowly sink southward through the day Monday and be southeast of
the area by late afternoon. However, overcast skies will
persist through mid afternoon with clearing expected toward
sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Late-season frost/freeze expected Monday night west
of the Blue Ridge.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure builds overhead Mon night. Winds go light/calm
resulting in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Frost or
near freezing temps could result in the sheltered valleys near and
west of I-81. Have issued a Freeze Watch for the Allegheny Front
monday night. This could be rather impactful given the fact that we
are approaching mid-May at this point which is a couple weeks to a
month past the median last freeze for these areas.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms
midweek, with a warming trend late week.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Return flow returns Tue with high moving offshore. The warming trend
will be more noticeable heading into Wed as a warm front lifts into
the region, followed by a cldfrnt and wave of low pressure Wed night
into Thu. This frontal system will bring a chance of showers and a
few t-storms mid week, with guidance split on exactly how much rain
falls over the area. Rain forecast to be beneficial in nature given
ongoing drought. Some lingering SHRA into Thu possible.
Temps will actually trend warmer in the wake of the frontal system
at the end of next week as large scale height rises commence.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Numerous showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected through
00Z tonight before fropa. Next wave of rain early Monday will
likely stay south of the main terminals, only impacting KCHO.
Next chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wed with
another cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected late tonight/early Monday due to a
northerly surge. Winds subside by midday Monday.
Additional SCAs are anticipated Tue night through Wed night in
strengthening southerly flow.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday
for MDZ008.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for VAZ503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday
for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LFR/CPB/ADS
AVIATION...LFR/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CPB
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion