403
FXUS61 KLWX 090035
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
835 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories extended for all waters through Saturday
afternoon due to channeling. Otherwise, no significant changes
to the forecast. Still looking at a few gusty thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening along with beneficial rain Sunday
into Monday. More frost/freeze potential early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Turning warmer this weekend with multiple opportunities
  for showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) Frost/freeze expected Monday night west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Turning warmer this weekend with multiple opportunities
 for showers and thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift northward through the area Saturday as
high pressure moves offshore. This will bring milder temps
Saturday afternoon with widespread 70s (60s mtns). There are
two main periods of concern for rain Saturday. First is morning
hours near MD/PA border with the warm front. Clouds are progged
to break, though guidance varies with respect to coverage of the
second round of convection through the afternoon and evening
(2-7pm). SPC has MRGL Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for Saturday
afternoon/evening across NE MD. Shear will be sufficient for
organized storm structures, but dewpoint recovery will be
modest (50s) with instability likely limited to several hundred
J/kg. Thus the severe weather risk appears low, but will have to
monitor the potential for small hail and gusty winds.

Much of Saturday night and Sun morning should be dry. After
that, a cold front will slowly settle in from the NW, eventually
crossing the area Monday morning/midday. A wave of low pressure
will eventually form along the boundary as stronger troughing
digs SE from the Great Lakes. This could ultimately bring a
steadier rain to parts of the region, but these details remain
uncertain. The highest chances for rain will be Sunday night
into Monday morning. While a few t-storms could be in the mix,
overall instability looks minimal. Rainfall amounts will
generally be around a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally
higher totals possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost/freeze expected Monday night west of the
Blue Ridge.

High pressure will quickly build in from the west
Monday night. This will result in light winds and favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Frost or near freezing
temps could result in the sheltered valleys near and west of
I-81. This could be rather impactful given approaching mid- May
at this point which is a couple weeks to a month past the median
last freeze for these areas.

The high pressure will drift offshore Tuesday marking return
flow and moderating temps. The warming trend will be more
noticeable heading into Wednesday as a warm front lifts into
the region, followed by a cold front by Thursday. This frontal
system will bring a chance of showers and a few t-storms mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 12z TAF
package. Expect some passing scattered/broken mid and high level
cloud cover overnight with overcast conditions across terminals
mainly north of CHO Saturday mid to late morning as the warm
front lifts through. A few light showers may accompany the
boundary early Saturday morning north of MRB/HGR/BWI although
confidence is low. There is a higher likelihood of isolated to
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday
afternoon/evening between 18-00z/2-8pm as an additional spoke of
energy pivots through.

Winds will turn southerly this evening and persist through
Saturday. Occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible at
terminals near the water (KDCA/KMTN) tonight and again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Did add a period of LLWS (2kft at 220/35
kts) in at all terminals outside of KCHO tonight.

VFR conditions can be expected for much of Sunday. However, a
cold front will drop into the area late in the day. Widespread
rain and a few t-storms can be expected as this front traverses
the region, especially Sunday night into Monday mid-morning.
Expect VSBY reductions and reduced CIGs during this time.

Any lingering rain chances should pull offshore by midday Monday
resulting in VFR conditions and N to NW winds. Gusts may reach
20 to 25 knots in the wake of the front Monday before becoming
lighter Monday night into Tuesday and shifting to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Went ahead and expanded the SCA for all waters this evening
through Saturday given southerly channeling. Gusts have
occasionally gotten close to gale force, especially over the
middle waters of the bay. Expect occasional gusts to bounce
between 20 to 30 kts through Saturday afternoon. Isolated to
scattered t-storms may affect the waters Saturday afternoon and
early evening, which may prompt SMWs.

Lighter winds are expected Saturday night into Sunday. SHRA and
perhaps a few t-storms along a cold front will likely cross the
waters Sunday night into Monday morning. The associated cold front
will cross the waters Monday morning with a shift to
northwesterly winds gusting up to 20 to 25 knots. SCAs will
likely be needed late Sunday night through part of Monday
night. Building high pressure will result in lighter winds by
Tuesday before shifting to the south.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow will persist through Sat night. Flow will
occasionally be enhanced by southerly channeling, but may also
exhibit a bit west of south component at times. This makes the
tides somewhat uncertain, as a more south to slightly east of
south component at slightly higher speeds would result in higher
water levels approaching 1.5 feet above normal and a resulting
higher potential for minor flooding at places like Annapolis and
Havre de Grace heading into Saturday. Wind direction may be a
bit more variable Sunday into Sunday evening introducing
further uncertainty to the tide forecast, though lingering
elevated water levels certainly seem plausible until a cold
front crosses Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...ADS/CPB/EST
MARINE...ADS/CPB/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion