637
FXUS61 KLWX 181413
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The growing season has ended west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
The need for Frost Advisories tonight in the piedmont will be
determined by early afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below normal temperatures with frost and freeze
  concerns continue through Monday morning.

- 2) Potential for isolated showers and breezy conditions next
  week as a Nor`easter lurks offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures with frost and freeze
concerns continue through Monday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic today
through Monday with below normal temperatures expected. High
temperatures today rise into the 50s to low 60s across the
forecast area with overnight lows tonight dropping into the 30s
to mid 40s. Additional Frost Advisories will likely be needed
for Monday morning where the growing season continues east of
the Blue Ridge. Some pockets could fall below freezing, but will
need to evaluate incoming guidance to determine if this will
occur on a widespread enough basis to need a Freeze Warning.

Temperatures will climb slightly Monday and Monday night, with
additional Frost Advisories appearing unlikely.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for isolated showers and breezy
conditions next week as a Nor`easter lurks offshore.

Particularly for locations along or east of I-95, a developing
Nor`easter off of the Mid-Atlantic coast guides weather conditions
late next week. East of I-95, scattered shower potential, wind
strength, and coastal flood risk are dependent on the track of this
system. Regardless of where this Nor-easter tracks, locations
further inland, particularly west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin
mountain ranges, are expected to remain dry in part due to
downsloping west of these mountain ranges. Daily daytime
temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent throughout
this time period reaching into mid to upper 60s (50s at higher
elevations). Cooler than average overnight temperatures on Monday
persist through the end of the week.

An omega block setup and a predominantly zonal flow next week
generally leads to uncertain but weaker systems. Current guidance
continues to exhibit moderate spread when it comes to the placement
of the low and timing as it meanders along the coast. On Monday, a
developing low pressure system is located off the North Carolina
coast. During the middle of next week, this Nor`easter crawls
northward, remaining off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Guidance differs
most at towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Most
solutions keep this Nor`easter well off shore, maintaining dry
conditions throughout our region. Some guidance meanders the low
toward the coast Thursday and Friday, increasing the potential for
isolated showers and breezier conditions exclusively along and east
of the I-95 corridor. As for any marine and coastal flooding
concerns, see the corresponding discussions below.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
North/northeasterly winds are expected today and Monday,
gusting around 15 knots each afternoon. Winds shift to
northwesterly on Tuesday, gusting 15 to 20 knots in the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected each day with surface
high pressure yielding dry conditions.

Tuesday through Saturday, primarily VFR conditions are expected
amongst all terminals with periods of sub-VFR mainly to the east,
potentially including BWI, DCA, and MTN. A few showers are possible
on the east side of the ZDC airspace with the Nor`easter lurking
offshore. Winds will generally be out of the northeast at 10 to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts, especially near the waters.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue today, though gradually
contracting toward southern Maryland, with northwest winds
gusting around 20 knots. Elevated winds continue through early
next week as a Nor`easter develops off the Carolina coast with
SCA criteria winds possible.

Through Thursday, a developing Nor`easter off the Mid- Atlantic
coast delivers a prolonged period of SCA conditions. Over the
wider, central Chesapeake Bay, gale condtions are a possibility
this period. Confidence is currently low for gales based upon
the track of the system with projected winds out of the
northeast at 10- 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are snapping back today as northerly winds slacken. A
developing Nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lead to
tidal anomalies continuing to rise into the upcoming week.
Sensitive locations (i.e. Annapolis) will have a chance to reach
minor flooding thresholds during the high tide cycle tonight,
and again during the middle of next week. Considerable
uncertainty remains on how exactly this Nor`easter will track
and subsequently affect the tide levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530-
     531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KVH
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion