817
FXUS61 KLWX 191902
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
202 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds, mountain snow showers, and falling temperatures will
accompany a potent cold front as it pushes east through tonight.
Winds will diminish Saturday as high pressure builds over the
region. A dry cold front will push through the area Sunday before
high pressure briefly returns Monday. A weak warm front will lift
through the area Monday night into Tuesday bringing a light wintry
precipitation threat to the mountains. An additional front will
cross Wednesday into Thursday with warming temps late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A powerful storm system that has affected a large portion of the
country with high wind over the last few days has made its way
into our region. As of this writing (just before 2 PM EST),
measured wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph were common, with peak gusts
of 60-70 mph noted near the MD/PA border, along the Blue Ridge,
over eastern WV and western MD.
Rain has changed to snow over the higher elevations as temps
have crashed, with graupel (snow pellets) mixing in over
northern MD near/north of I-70.
Over the mountains, gusty snow showers and possibly squalls
will be possible through the evening, with a localized dusting
possible immediately in the lee as well due to high Froude
numbers (indicating unblocked flow). The favored higher
elevations are expected to see generally 2 to 4 inches. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect.
Another punch, or perhaps just extension, to the gusty winds
occurs heading into early evening as the potent trough axis
moves overhead. Guidance was consistent with minimal drop off in
winds, especially on the hilltops and ridges. Thus, all wind
headlines are in effect until 10 PM. In particular, downslope-
favored areas just east of the Alleghenies could see some very
high winds given the wind aloft and profiles in BUFKIT; it would
not shock me if one or two wind gusts to hurricane force were
noted somewhere between US-219 and US-220 this evening. Given
the number of power outages in some areas and the very cold
temps tonight, this additional wind could prove high impact.
Winds will diminish the second half of the night as high
pressure quickly approaches from the west by daybreak. Overnight
lows drop back into the 20s, with teens in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive zonal flow aloft will bring high pressure overhead
by Saturday. Some mid and high level clouds are possible in
association with a jet streak aloft. Flow becomes southerly by
afternoon, and with stronger warm advection from the southwest,
the warmest spots (in the 50s) will likely be the Shenandoah
Valley and lower elevations of the Potomac Highlands. That flow
continues to increase aloft Saturday night as a trough moves
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley (with surface low
pressure well north in Ontario). The exposed peaks above 4000 ft
could approach Wind Advisory criteria, but most of the area
will be beneath an inversion. Lows will be milder in the 30s.
The system to the north will push a cold front through on
Sunday. With most of the forcing and moisture to the north, only
an increase in cloud cover is expected. There will also be gusty
westerly post-frontal winds which most likely fall just shy of
advisory criteria in the mountains. Daytime temperatures will
remain mild in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but temperatures will
drop into the 20s Sunday night due to the post-frontal cold and
dry advection.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall, it`s a benign extended period outside of some light
wintry precipitation chances mainly west of I-81 late Monday
into Tuesday and a quick moving clipper system heading into the
Christmas holiday. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms
if not above average heading into the Christmas and upcoming
holiday weekend ahead.
High pressure briefly builds back over the area Monday with a warm
front set to lift in from the south late Monday night into Tuesday.
This will leave an overrunning situation in place for areas west of
the Blue Ridge given residual cold air from departing high
pressure and a warm front lifting into the region. Some
uncertainty remains in regards to the magnitude of this storm
system as it appears moisture-starved amongst the latest
deterministic/ensemble guidance. Primary precipitation type, if
it were to occur, would be a freezing rain/wintry mix.
Probabilities of at least 0.01" of freezing rain remain between
30-50 percent across the cold air drainage zones of eastern
Garrett and western Allegany Co. MD along with locations in the
lee of the Alleghenies across the eastern WV mountains and
Allegheny Highlands of VA. This will be something that we will
continue to monitor through the weekend given the increased
holiday travel period and potential for the threat to spread as
far east as the I-81 corridor. Any frozen precipitation will
quickly change over to rain showers Tuesday afternoon ahead of
the cold front as it pushes through. Overall amounts will be
fairly light with amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch
outside of the Allegheny Mountains.
The cold front will continue south and east of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday before stalling in the vicinity of southwest VA
and northern NC. The front will lift back to the north as a warm
front Christmas Eve Wednesday into Thursday bringing additional
light rain chances to areas west of the Blue Ridge. Once again
precipitation chances will be light as several pieces of weak energy
traverse the boundary. Most locations will see dry conditions
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with temperatures warming back above
average. Highs Christmas Eve will push into the mid 40s and mid 50s
with highs in the mid 50s and low 60s Christmas Day. Even warmer
conditions are expected beyond the holiday with highs Friday in the
upper 50s and mid 60s. Mountain locations will remain similar with
highs in the mid 40s and low 50s through the holiday and into the
upcoming weekend ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots will be commonplace until roughly
01Z-03Z this evening. Otherwise, VFR. Winds diminish late this
evening before becoming light overnight.
Light southerly winds on Saturday morning pick up quickly
during the afternoon, but then become light again overnight.
This could lead to some LLWS as a 50-kt low-level jet moves
atop the surface inversion. VFR conditions continue through
Sunday, although a dry cold front will shift winds to the west
with gusts up to 30 kt possible.
VFR conditions are expected through Monday night as brief high
pressure sits nearby. A clipper system late Monday night into
Tuesday could lead to temporary sub-VFR reductions mainly for
terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Additional sub-VFR reductions are
possible with another clipper system set to pass midweek.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty winds 30-40 knots linger into this evening but will
quickly diminish overnight into Saturday morning as high
pressure builds over the area.
Small Craft Advisories are possible late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night as the high departs and southerly flow increases.
A cold front will then cross on Sunday. At least high-end Small
Craft Advisory conditions appear likely within northwesterly
flow, with low end gales possible. Winds will gradually slack
Sunday night but advisories will likely continue for most
waters.
Favorable marine conditions are likely Monday as high pressure moves
over the waters. Light northwest winds Monday become south by
Tuesday morning. Southerly channeling could produce SCA conditions
for most of the waters Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ005-006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ003-004-
501-502-509-510.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>027-
029>031-036>040-053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ028-503-
504-507-508.
WV...High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS/DHOF
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/EST
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion