834
FXUS61 KLWX 140130
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Storms are moving through through the forecast area this
evening, and are expected to weaken and track off toward the
east as we move through the night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty thunderstorms are possible this evening.

2) Above average temperatures expected beginning this
weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty thunderstorms are possible this evening.

As of shortly after 9 PM, a line of thunderstorms stretches
southwestward along the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to DC, and
then further southwestward from there toward Charlottesville.
These storms are moving into an increasingly stable airmass at
low-levels, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend in
the activity over the next few hours as they move toward
southern and far northeastern Maryland, as well as the
Fredericksburg area in Virginia. Most locations are experiencing
gusts of 20-30 mph as the line of storms moves through, with
some pea sized hail also being observed in stronger cores.
A light trailing stratiform rain is lingering behind the initial
line of storms for 60-90 minutes in most locations, along with
occasional lightning strikes/rumbles of thunder. Lingering
showers should clear the I-95 corridor by around Midnight, but
may continue for a few hours longer across southern Maryland.

Eventually the system`s surface cold front will move through
later tonight, causing background winds to shift to out of the
northwest. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out in spots during
the few hour long window between when the rain stops and when
the cold front moves through. Winds will shift to out of the
northwest behind the front. The uptick in wind and dry advection
behind the front will bring any threat for fog to an end. A few
upslope rain showers may also be possible in the Alleghenies
later tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to
the northwest of I-95, and then low to mid 50s further
southeast.

An upper low will pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday while surface low pressure redevelops over New
England. This will result in gusty northwesterly winds and
plentiful stratocumulus. Rain showers appear mostly limited to
upslope areas in the Alleghenies, but can`t totally rule out an
isolated shower or sprinkle elsewhere. Temps will be cooler
beneath the trough as well, with most lower elevations in the
60s. There could even be a few wet snowflakes mixed in on the
high peaks above 4000 feet Thu morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures expected beginning this
weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

Surface high pressure shifts offshore Saturday through early next
week with return flow ushering in warmer temperatures. Aloft, upper
level ridging slowly builds over the eastern CONUS through mid week.
On Saturday, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for
most with higher elevations staying in the mid 70s. Temperatures
gradually warm each day with highs soaring into the mid 90s for most
on Tuesday.

In addition to high pressure shifting offshore, a cold front slowly
approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This will yield
daily shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily in the
Alleghenies.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 9 PM, storms are currently impacting many of the
terminals, but should move off to the east over the next couple
hours. A wind shift to northwest late at night should assist in
improving conditions.

An upper level low will be nearby Thu before moving east
Fri. This will likely result in stratocumulus ceilings, with a
worst case being MVFR. NW`ly winds will also gust 20 to 25 kt
both days.

SW winds on Saw blow 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots
expected in the morning. Winds become light overnight before
shifting to w`ly Sun morning. Winds remain light on Sun,
blowing 5 to 10 knots. Primarily VFR conditions are expected
both days as precip chances remain low (30% or less).

&&

.MARINE...
SMWs are ongoing as of 9 PM for portions of the Upper Tidal
Potomac and northern portions of the Bay. These storms are
expected to weaken as they track further toward the south and
east, with additional SMWs appearing unlikely. These storms
should move to the east of the waters later tonight. Winds will
be lighter for a time tonight before the cold front brings a
shift to the NW early Thu morning. The length of this gap is a
bit uncertain, but advisories will definitely be needed after
sunrise Thu with gusts to 25 kt. Gusty NW winds and advisories
will continue into Fri for some if not all waters. Winds fall
below SCA criteria by Fri evening.

Winds around 15 knots out of the southwest on Saturday before
becoming light overnight. West winds blow 5 to 10 knots over the
waters on Sunday. No hazardous marine conditions are expected either
day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are gradually increasing in gusty s`ly flow ahead
of a low pressure system. For the most part, peaks in action
stage are expected, with the highest tide occurring tonight. The
Stevens ensemble shows the potential for Minor tidal flooding
at Annapolis, but other guidance is just below. Expect anomalies
to fall thereafter as winds shift to NW`ly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KJP/CPB
MARINE...ADS/AVS/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion