727
FXUS61 KLWX 092350
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
750 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SKies clear overnight with mild temperatures expected. More sunshine
and even warmer temperatures Sunday with widespread beneficial rain
late Sunday into Monday. Frost/freeze potential remains west of the
Blue Ridge early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer temps Sunday with widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances late as a cold front crosses.

 2) A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday
morning west of the Blue Ridge. Moderating temps and more rain
chances mid to to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temps Sunday with widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances late as a cold front crosses.

The lackluster shortwave disturbance from earlier this afternoon has
kicked well north and east of the forecast area. Most locations
ended up dry outside of a few brief showers over northeast/central
MD and the western shore of the bay. With the upper level
disturbance moving away expect gradually clearing skies for the
remainder of the evening and into the overnight period. Lows tonight
will fall into the low to mid 50s for most locations with upper 40s
over the mountains/deeper shelter valleys.

Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday with more sunshine and highs
for most pushing into the low 80s. This is ahead of an approaching
cold front frontal boundary which looks to cross the area late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The front will bring widespread
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area. The rain will
be beneficial in nature with most of the guidance suggesting a
quarter of an inch. Locally higher totals are possible pending the
placement of a ripple of low pressure which looks to scoot by to the
south along the front Monday morning. The rain will be quick to wrap
up Monday afternoon and evening at the cold front sags south and
east of the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night
into Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge. Moderating temps and
more rain chances mid to to late week.

High pressure builds overhead Monday night leading to a good
radiational cooling set up with clear skies and light/calm winds.
Frost or near freezing temps could result in the sheltered valleys
near and west of I-81. This could be rather impactful given the fact
that we are approaching mid-May at this point which is a couple
weeks to a month past the median last freeze for these areas.

Temperatures moderate Tuesday under south to southwesterly return
flow as high pressure moves offshore. The warming trend will be more
noticeable heading into Wednesday as a warm front lifts into the
region, followed by a cold front and wave of low pressure Wednesday
night into Thursday. This frontal system will bring a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms mid week, with guidance split on
exactly how much rain falls over the area. Rain forecast to be
beneficial in nature given ongoing drought.

Temps will actually trend warmer in the wake of the frontal system
at the end of next week and into the upcoming weekend as large scale
height rises commence.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Sunday mid-
afternoon. Some patchy fog may be noted at terminals across
northeast MD where it did rain today as well as near bodies of
water. Winds will remain out of the west and southwest this
evening at less than 10 kts. Some gusts up to 15 kts are
possible, especially near the bay/tidal Potomac. Winds will
lighten and even become calm/variable this evening before
turning back to the west Sunday at less than 10 kts.

Next chance for sub-VFR reductions arrives late SUnday afternoon
into Monday morning as a cold front crosses the area. The front will
bring widespread light to moderate showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to the region. This could lead to brief vsby
reductions at times as the front passes through. The front will
cross Monday morning with VFR conditions expected to return Monday
afternoon. Winds will shift from the west and southwest ahead of the
front back to the north Monday morning and northwest Monday
afternoon. Speeds will remain less than 15 kts with occasional gusts
up to 20 kts over terminals near the ridges/bay.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday with additional sub-VFR
reductions possible Wednesday and Thursday as another front passes
through.


&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected to continue through Sunday
afternoon before picking up again Sunday evening and Sunday night as
a cold front crosses the waters. SCAs will be needed SUnday night
into Monday for portions of the waters due to northerly channeling.
Additional SCAs are likely Tuesday into Wednesday due to
channeling and another front crossing the region.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion