146
FXUS61 KLWX 100119
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watches have been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Thunderstorms, a few of of which may produce damaging winds
  and heavy rain, are possible Friday.

- 2) Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week,
  followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, a few of of which may produce
damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible Friday.

Stronger convection has exited the area to the east, so the
Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watches were cancelled. Some
showers left over from upstream thunderstorms are crossing the
Allegheny Mountains, but they seem to be weakening. At the
moment, it seems unlikely they survive east of I-81. It should
remain quiet overnight with patchy fog, especially in areas that
saw rain this afternoon.

Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday
given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily
westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more
organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest
day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the
previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place
again on Friday afternoon/evening, particularly south of I-66.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next
week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

Broad upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Desert
Southwest and Rockies on Monday, allowing for continued high
pressure to settle over the area on Monday. Temperatures continue to
stay in the low-to-mid 80s at the start of the work week before
steadily rising into midweek as heights continue to build.
Temperatures could return to the 90s by Wednesday, with humidity
increasing somewhat as dewpoints go from the lower to upper 60s &
low 70s as temperatures rise.

To the north, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over eastern
Canada Thursday going into Friday. This could introduce
opportunities for showers & thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as this system continues to track eastward. While probability
outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML
& AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for
severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As
details on this system become more defined, will have to
continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help
identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms have exited the area for the evening, although
it`s possible a shower reaches MRB during the late evening
hours. Patchy fog is possible overnight, but did not have the
confidence to go lower than MVFR. Westerly winds on Friday may
offset some of the convective threat on Friday. Model signals
still vary a bit on thunderstorm coverage and intensity, so have
only used a PROB30 group for now.

A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to
northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on
Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south.
Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals between Monday and
Tuesday. Light easterly winds shift southwesterly Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small
Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early
next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will
be tied to thunderstorms. While westerly winds may offset some
of Friday`s convective threat, some storms could impact the
waters during the afternoon and evening.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds
between 5-10 knots shift south to southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet will continue through
tonight as winds remain southerly. This will likely result in
near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of
the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood
threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
tonight`s high tide. A gradual decline in water levels is
expected this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/BRO/SRT
MARINE...ADS/LFR/BRO/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion