600
FXUS61 KLWX 190234
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Wind Advisory for western Grant and western Pendleton
Counties Monday into early Monday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday
  night through Tuesday night.

- 2) Seasonal conditions Thursday turn cold into next weekend
  with the possibility of wintry precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold conditions are expected over the
region Monday night through Tuesday night.

An Arctic front will sweep through the area Monday, ushering in
gusty winds and a very cold airmass. Westerly winds will gust 20
to 35 mph during the day, with locally to 45 to 50 mph in the
highest elevations. A Wind Advisory has been issued for western
Grant and western Pendleton Counties from 8am to 8pm Monday. Highs
will reach the 30s and lower 40s in the lower elevations during
the day, temperatures will rapidly fall after sunset. Winds
will decrease somewhat overnight, but air temperatures will drop
to the teens, with single digits in the higher elevations.
Monday night will have the lowest wind chill values, generally 0
to 10 in the lower elevations and below 0 in the higher
elevations. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect along and
west of the Allegheny Front where there will be widespread wind
chills between -10 and -20. This advisory will continue through
1 PM Tuesday, as temperatures will be slow to climb and winds
will remain gusty. Temperatures have trended upward slightly for
Tuesday, with locations across central Virginia and southern
Maryland potentially rising above freezing briefly. Most other
locations will stay in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will also be
slightly less than Monday but still keep wind chills from
getting any higher than the teens and lower 20s.

A shortwave trough will also cross the northwestern part of the
CWA as the Arctic front passes. Some scattered upslope snow
showers will be possible Monday along the Allegheny Mountains.
Very little moisture is expected, but high snow ratios in the
cold airmass could result in a fluffy inch of snow in spots.

The center of the strong high will build over Tuesday night with
mostly clear skies in place. Due to the radiational cooling
component with lighter winds in place, some of the outlying
valleys could have colder air temperatures compared to Monday
night (single digits). Otherwise lows in the teens are expected
across the lower elevations. Some residual wind in the higher
elevations could result in wind chills below 0.

As the high slides east Wednesday, gusty south winds will push
most of the area into the mid 30s to lower 40s. During the
afternoon and overnight, some snow showers may enter the
Alleghenies as the next low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonal conditions Thursday turn cold into
next weekend with the possibility of wintry precipitation.

Surface high pressure slides offshore Thursday as an area of low
pressure passes by to our north. The return of southerly flow brings
highs up to their seasonal values in the low to mid 40s east of the
mountains. An approaching upper trough and an associated surface
cold front bring a period of upslope mountain snow showers, with
several inches of accumulating snow possible. The cold front crosses
the area Thursday evening/night.

An Arctic airmass settles in over the region Friday into next
weekend, with well below normal temperatures possible. We could be
looking at highs in the 20s and 30s for next weekend, and overnight
lows in the teens to low 20s. Truly frigid air could arrive next
Sunday night into the start of the following week.

Models continue to indicate the interaction of the northern and
southern jet streams over the central U.S. producing a potent area
of low pressure. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing,
location, and track of this system. Depending on what occurs, there
could be wintry precipitation of varying types across our area
sometime next weekend. To add some probabilistic perspective, the
13Z NBM has around a 30pct chance for 1-2 inches of snow, and around
a 20pct chance for a glaze of ice. Continue to monitor the forecast
during the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions returning overnight, but temperatures will
quickly fall and winds will remain rather light out of the
northwest, so any residual moisture could refreeze on untreated
surfaces.

Winds will become south or southwest by Monday morning, then an
Arctic front will sweep through during the midday hours,
shifting winds to the west. No precipitation is expected, but
these winds will gust 20-30 kt during the afternoon and early
evening before subsiding somewhat overnight. Wind gusts of 20-25
kt will return Tuesday, becoming light Tuesday night as high
pressure builds overhead. In its wake, southerly winds may gust
to 20 kt on Wednesday.

VFR conditions likely continue into Thursday when a cold front moves
through the area. Winds veering from southwest to northwest from
morning to evening, and could see gusts to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest winds will remain elevated into the night as
low pressure passes offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for most of the waters until 4 AM. Winds shift briefly
to southerly Monday morning ahead of a reinforcing Arctic front
which will turn winds west to northwest Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are most likely from roughly
midday Monday through Monday evening, gradually decreasing late
Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this
period as well, and a few gusts could approach gale force Monday
evening. Advisories will likely be needed for most if not all
waters Tuesday as westerly winds remain gusty, but not as strong
as Monday. Light winds are expected Tuesday night as high
pressure builds overhead. Southerly winds will quickly increase
in its wake Wednesday, with SCAs likely needed into Wednesday
night.

SCA conditions are possible Thursday as a cold front moves across
the local waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EST Monday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion