070
FXUS61 KLWX 080116 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All watches and warnings were dropped earlier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Patchy morning fog, high humidity, hot temperatures, and
  daily thunderstorm chances continue through early next week.

- 2) A cold front could arrive late next week and into the
  weekend bringing relief from the heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy morning fog, high humidity, hot
temperatures, and daily thunderstorm chances continue through
early next week.

Somewhat similar conditions to what occurred today are expected
Saturday as another potent shortwave passes through. The main
difference is that mid-level flow turns a bit more W to WSW
versus the SW`ly flow we have had in recent days. As a result,
coverage of storms is likely to be less than what we saw today.
However, shear values increase a bit, reaching 30 to 35 kts as
the subtropical jet stream begins to strengthen. Mid- level
lapse rates are also impressive, similar to today`s event.
Instability will be a bit less tomorrow, owing to the westerly
mid-level flow. Thermodynamic profiles depict skinnier CAPE
profiles, but inverted-V signatures towards the surface. Our
thoughts are that the coverage should be less tomorrow, but the
ceiling could be higher in terms of damaging wind potential,
should storms be able to develop and get organized. The Storm
Prediction Center has added a Marginal Risk for severe weather
tomorrow as a result that encompasses much of the forecast area,
further reinforcing our thoughts.

Convection begins to wane a bit Sunday into Monday given quasi-zonal
flow aloft. A few storms may develop over the higher elevations,
but coverage will be much less than in recent days. This will
be short-lived however, with storm chances increasing once
again Tuesday through the end of the week as a series of
shortwave disturbances pass through.

Outside of the storm chances expect highs in the upper 80s and low
90s with heat indices east of the Blue Ridge up around 100
degrees. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday
given the strengthened subtropical ridge over the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front could arrive late next week and
into the weekend bringing relief from the heat and humidity.

While this is very far out in the forecast period, there is some
signal that a more potent frontal system could push through the
region late in the week. The details are murky at this stage of the
forecast, with timing very uncertain, as well as potential impacts.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance are generally between
Thursday/Friday right now, with improvement in the weather
pattern possible into the upcoming weekend. Any decent frontal
passage in the summertime should be watched closely for
potential severe weather, so we will keep monitoring this in the
coming days to see if that potential is there, and try to
narrow down the timeframe a bit more.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the terminals
through the middle of next week given subtropical high pressure
offshore and the lack of any real front passing through. Brief
periods of sub-VFR are likely during the afternoon and evening
hours due to thunderstorms, though Sunday and Monday look to
have the lowest chances, and primarily at MRB and CHO.

More storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, but
with less coverage. Added a 3 hour PROB30 for now, as the
likelihood of storms tomorrow is less than today, and there is a
lot more uncertainty with convective initiation than we have
today. As we get closer, will refine that forecast and add
TEMPOs or FM groups as necessary.

Outside of the thunderstorms expect patchy fog between the
terminals each morning through early next week. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast at less than 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA is in effect for portions of the Chesapeake Bay today due to
southerly channeling. However, the bigger threat will be with
storms this afternoon/evening, which will likely necessitate
some SMWs. Damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning will be the main threats.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed again on Saturday due to
southerly channeling mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Another chance for storms Saturday afternoon, which could again
bring damaging winds and frequent lightning. However, a bit more
uncertainty with tomorrow`s event in terms of coverage.

A break from showers and storms is expected on Sunday and Monday
with winds generally gusting 10-15 knots at most during the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies climb through the weekend in response to return
southerly flow. Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of
high tide at sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion