914
FXUS61 KLWX 110128
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories were started earlier and were expanded
given the marine observational trends. Additionally, Small
Craft Advisories were expanded to cover more marine zones on
Saturday given the post-frontal northerly surge.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperaturess through the
weekend. Turning hotter much of next week with limited chances
for rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
through the weekend. Turning hotter much of next week with
limited chances for rainfall.
A cold front currently tracking southeastward across western
Pennsylvania is producing scattered showers north of the Mason-
Dixon Line. With current dew point depressions in the 30 to 40
degree range, there will be a lot of dry air to contend with as
radar echoes move into western Maryland. Gradual low-level
saturation of the column ensues along the Alleghenies. Perhaps
total amounts may near 0.10" in the wetter spots, but any
measurable totals should be confined to the Allegheny Front.
Such activity gradually winds down overnight before shifting
toward drier conditions into Saturday morning.
This system will be followed by a period of strong upper level
ridging settling in for this weekend into the early to middle
parts of next week.
No wetting rain is expected through Wednesday of next week,
outside of the mentioned showers across the Allegheny Mountains
tonight into early Saturday morning. A sprinkle may make its
way toward the Catoctins Saturday morning with extra cloud cover
along the front as it passes through. The front will bring a
notable wind shift from the west and southwest today back to the
north and northwest Saturday.
This will allow for tanking relative humidity values as dry
high pressure over the upper Great Lakes region moves in. Recent
model guidance indicates that minimum RHs will be 20-30% range;
however, the "floor" based on recent HREF minimum ensemble
members outline that portions of the Shenandoah Valley could dip
into the 10-20% range during the afternoon hours. That being
said, winds are not expected to be as breezy on Saturday, thus
will need to continue to monitor this aspect of the forecast in
the near-term.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this
weak cold front with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s (50s
Mountains) Saturday as the front passes through. Lows will fall
into the low to mid 40s Saturday night with highs Sunday back
into the 70s (outside western shore of Chesapeake Bay, southern
MD, and northeast MD).
A strengthening broad upper level ridge will allow temperatures
to reach into near daily record territory by the middle of next
week. Highs are currently forecasted to reach the upper 80s for
much of the forecast area next Tuesday, with highs in the lower
90s currently forecasted for next Wednesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to be well aligned on the progression of this warm-up,
but some outliers remain on the low end of the deterministic
spectrum regarding the exact maximum temperatures that could be
reached.
Wetting rain chances may return with a cold front late next
week. This is due largely in part to a broad area of low
pressure over the Great Lakes that will push toward the East
Coast late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions prevailing at
all airfields through 00Z Sunday. A weak cold front will move
across the area late this evening into Saturday morning;
however, the bulk of model guidance continues to leave the
majority of the area (outside of far W MD/E WV) dry with this
feature. While KMRB could see a stray spinkle or two, the
substantial dry air in the column will likely lead to more virga
if anything.
An increasing low-to-mid level cloud deck will be the main
interest for aviation interests with this feature; however, more
pessimistic model guidance continues to keep lowest ceilings
along the highest elevations of W MD, thus have kept mentions
above VFR thresholds. NBM model guidance continues to highlight
a brief corridor of LLWS between 03-07Z Saturday across
DC/Baltimore metro airfields so these have largely been
maintained in the evening updates.
Skies begin clearing out after 12Z Saturday and through the end
of the TAF period. An increasing southwesterly wind is expected
with sustained winds between 5 to 10 knots with gusts upwards
of 15 to 20 knots increasingly possible at all airfields except
at CHO. After 00Z Sunday, some chances for precipitation will
come into the northern half of the forecast area Sunday evening
and bring some potential for sub-VFR conditions with a similar
pattern emerging on Monday and Tuesday; however, chances mainly
stay north/west of the I-81 corridor.
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs were earlier expanded given an uptick in southerly wind
gusts across the waterways. Such advisories are set to expire
overnight before another round of SCAs come into play on
Saturday for northerly winds behind a weak cold frontal
passage.
Small Craft Advisories are likely on Monday through Tuesday morning
as 15-20 knot winds blow from the south. Gusts up to 30 knots
possible on Monday, with stronger gusts towards the central
Chesapeake Bay. SCAs may still be needed on Tuesday morning
before winds gradually decrease to 5-10 knots south by Tuesday
night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Other than a few showers along the Alleghenies tonight as a
cold front moves through, no precipitation is expected over the
next several days. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the
front Saturday morning, but may not overlap as humidity values
drop by afternoon. An SPS for elevated fire danger may be needed
for portions of the area. Will assess the overnight model
guidance to see if anything else changes.
Even warmer conditions are likely early next week as another area of
high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic coast with limited
rain chances through Wednesday. Expecting fuels to further dry
out in this pattern, particularly given the high amounts of
solar insolation reaching the ground over the past several days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-16,
2026 timeframe:
A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.
***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960)! 63F (2014)!
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)!
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945)+! 67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024)+ 64F (2014)
***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941)! 65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967)! 62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941)! 65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024)! 68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960)+! 61F (2023)+!
***THURSDAY, APRIL 16TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017)+!
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)!
Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012)+ 66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012)+ 65F (2012)+
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002)+ 63F (2017)+
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ530>537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534-
536>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/EST/NPB
AVIATION...ADS/EST/NPB
MARINE...ADS/EST
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion