214
FXUS61 KLWX 112351
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
651 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the current forecast package. Latest model
runs continue to trend drier in regards to precipitation chances
Thursday through Saturday AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) First accumulating snow for parts of the Alleghenies with
  rain showers and brisk conditions elsewhere, Thursday through
  Saturday.

- 2) Cooler temperatures & dry condtions expected for much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...First accumulating snow for parts of the Alleghenies with rain
showers and brisk conditions elsewhere, Thursday through Saturday.

No significant changes are expected to the current forecast package
outside timing of precipitation chances Thursday into Friday. Still
monitoring an area of low pressure ejecting out of the southern
Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley and it`s associated cold frontal
boundary that is set to cross late Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon. The low will shift off the Delmarva coast Thursday
evening into Thursday night before pulling away Friday into the
weekend. A secondary front and piece of shortwave energy will pivot
through the area Friday into Saturday morning reinforcing the colder
air along with upslope precipitation over the mountains.

After a prolonged stretch of dry weather the chance for widespread
precipitation returns. Unfortunately, this will not be a drought
buster by any means with QPF values trending downward, especially
east of the Blue Ridge per the latest model guidance. Most locations
will see a tenth of an inch or less in the precipitation department
Thursday through Saturday. Higher amounts of precipitation will be
noted over northeast MD and the Catoctins where a tenth to a quarter
of an inch of precipitation are expected. The highest precipitation
totals will be in the upslope areas of the Alleghenies with
widespread amounts of a quarter to a half an inch expected. Most of
this will come in the form of snow late Thursday night into Friday
as colder air wraps in.

Speaking of snow, this will be the first flakes and accumulation of
the season for portions of the Allegheny Mountains. Accumulations
will likely remain just shy of advisory criteria due largely in part
to marginal temperatures at the onset and during the during the
duration of the event. Most locations will see a coating-2" above
2000 feet with 2-3" at elevations above 3500 feet. Locally higher
totals are possible along Backbone Mountain at Hoyes Crest and down
toward Spruce Knob pending the orientation of any streamer activity
off of Lake Erie/Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday morning.
This will be the time window of greatest impact on high elevation
roadways given temperatures below freezing. Roadways impacted
included US-219 from Keysers Ridge south into WV, US-48 west of
Bismarck/Mt. Storm, WV, US-33 west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west
of Monterey, VA. Expect temperatures in the 20s leading to fluffier
snow characters with ratios of 13:1 or better.

High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper 40s over the
mountains to low 60s near the bay. Temperatures tumble Thursday
evening with lows Thursday night in the 30s and 40s. Winds crank up
out of the west and northwest Thursday afternoon and evening
continuing through Friday with gusts between 20-30 mph. Locally
higher gusts are possible along the ridges. These winds will yield
wind chills in the 30s and 40s for both Friday and Saturday with air
temperatures outside the mountains struggling to get out of the
upper 40s and low 50s in most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures & dry condtions expected
for much of next week.

As the weekend`s longwave trough slowly pushes offshore early next
week, winds could remain elevated through Sunday before diminishing
between Monday & Tuesday in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures
are likely to remain much cooler areawide throughout the week, with
many areas seeing near or below freezing temperatures overnight
beginning this weekend through the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, generally calm, clear conditions persist throughout the
week as a upper-level ridging transitions overhead. Daytime
temperatures moderate a bit later in the week with continued high
pressure, with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 50s on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this evening with light winds out of
the south and southwest at less than 10 kts. Mid and high level
cloud cover will continue to increase as a wave of low pressure and
cold front eject east from the southern Great Lakes/Ohio River
Valley. This system will bring pockets of light rain to the
terminals on and off throughout Thursday. Shower activity should
push into terminals west of MRB prior 13z/8am before advancing east
toward the corridor late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
Activity will be scattered and light in nature leading to more in
the way of cig reductions compared to vsbys.

Wind will become the bigger issue for aviation Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Saturday. Expect gusts on the order of 20-30
kts out of the northwest with locally higher gusts over the ridges
and waters. Winds will be reinforced out of the northwest Friday
into Saturday as another ripple of energy pulses through. A spotty
sprinkle is possible east of the mountains Friday although most
terminals outside of those west of KCBE will be dry. VFR conditions
are expected Friday into the weekend outside of the mountains where
upslope snow showers will persists.

VFR conditions are expected to continue into early next week. Winds
diminish Sunday into Monday while shifting northerly Tuesday into
midweek as high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected to continue overnight ahead of an
approaching cold frontal boundary. SCA conditions are likely
Thursday afternoon through Saturday as a wave of low pressure and
series of fronts cross the waters. Expect north to northwesterly
winds to gusts 20-30 kts at times Thursday evening and throughout
Friday into Saturday.  Winds likely start to diminish back below SCA
levels Sunday and Monday, shifting more northerly by Tuesday. Sub-
SCA level conditions are expected with high pressure for the middle
of the next week.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Action Stages are likely Thursday night before winds shift to
northwest behind a cold front. A strong frontal passage will
bring a prolonged period of blowout tides Friday and through
early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion