677
FXUS61 KLWX 021402
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1002 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler than normal today with a spotty mountain shower or t-
storm. Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

2) Temperatures increase late in the week while a strong cold
front brings widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler than normal today with a spotty mountain
shower or t-storm. Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

A sharpened trough and weak piece of shortwave energy remains draped
across the Alleghenies and southwest VA this morning. This
piece of energy will gradually swing east this afternoon and
into the evening as broad high pressure (1024-1028 mb) high
pressure over central Canada/Great Lakes region pushes south. As
a result, expect a few brief spotty showers and isolated
t-storms this morning and into the early afternoon period. Rain
amounts will be limited with most locations remaining dry and
under partly/mostly sunny skies. The greatest confidence for
showers will be tied to the mountains (i.e Alleghenies & central
Blue Ridge) due in part to orographic lifting. Highs today will
push into the upper 60s and mid 70s (low to mid 60s mountains).
Lows tonight will fall back into the upper 40s and low tom id
50s.

Meanwhile, coastal low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast
today before ejecting east toward the coastal GA/SC. Current
06z ensemble and deterministic guidance shoves this system
further south given the broad high building south from the Great
Lakes/Ohio River Valley. As a result, expect dry conditions for
both Wednesday and Thursday along with temperatures closer to
seasonal norms. Highs Wednesday will into the upper 70s and low
80s (upper 60s mountains) with mid to upper 80s (low 70s
mountains) expected Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will fall
back into the mid top upper 50s (low 50s mountains). These
values climb back into the upper 50s and mid 60s under return
flow Thursday night into Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures increase late in the week while a
strong cold front brings widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms late this weekend.

Upper-level ridging will persist into Friday and Saturday, causing
further warming throughout the region with afternoon highs in the
low 90s. However, conditions should remain dry with dewpoints likely
remaining fairly steady, keeping the heat index close to the actual
air temperature. Rain chances remain minimal through this period
with relatively light WSW winds.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough is expected to form over the
Great Lakes over the weekend and then slowly track through the
Northeast region. A strong cold front stemming from this system will
travel through the Mid-Atlantic, causing widespread chances for rain
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms between Sunday and
Monday. Uncertainty still remains high with this system, as the
synoptic setup and timing still diverges significantly between the
GFS, ECMWF, and the ICON models. Overall, the timing of this front
has trended later into the weekend over the past several model
runs, and severe probabilities remain low as of this time.
Temperatures likely remain above normal until the front eventually
passes offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A spotty shower or thunderstorm IS possible through 22z/6pm
this afternoon west of MRB/SHD, although the greatest chance is
over the central Appalachians (i.e KLWB/KBKW/KHSP). Winds will
remain out of the north and northeast through Wednesday.
Sustained speeds will remain between 5-15 kts with occasional
gusts up to 20 kts down toward KLYH and KRIC.

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure
dominates the region.Light west to southwest winds are expected each
day.Beginning Sunday, widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms could bring reduced conditions across terminals
through Monday. Winds generally flow west to southwest before
shifting northerly Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Still seeing some occasional 20 to 25 kt gusts over the open
waters of the bay and lower tidal Potomac this afternoon. Winds
will drop back below SCA levels later this afternoon and into
the evening as high pressure builds overhead.

No marine hazards are expected Wednesday and THursday as high
pressure moves overhead. Some near SCA level southerly channeling is
possible Thursday evening into Friday morning over the middle and
lower waters although confidence is low at this time. Winds will be
out of the north/northeast through Wednesday before switching back
to the south and southwest Thursday.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible Friday evening through early
Saturday morning, then again on Sunday evening as a trough moves
through the region along with scattered rain showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Winds generally flow southwesterly through Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will likely rise again through this evening, the
magnitude of which will depend on the position and strength of
low pressure developing off the coast. Additional minor tidal
flooding is most probable at Annapolis with Wednesday morning`s
high tide, but will monitor any potential quicker water rises
given the return of onshore flow tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/EST/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/EST/SRT
MARINE...CJL/EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion