995
FXUS61 KLWX 151401
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
901 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures and dew points continue a slow upward crawl as of
mid morning, with the latest observations suggesting a cold rain
for the region. Snow is expected to be limited to above 3000
feet elevation today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Chilly rain overspreads the area today into tonight.

- 2) Above normal temperatures are expected next week with rain
  possible by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly rain overspreads the area today into
tonight.

The latest model guidance remains in virtual agreement that
precipitation today is going to be rain, with snow limited to
the highest elevations in some of the Allegheny Highlands.

The potent mid/upper trough and the associated surface low will
continue tracking across the Deep South today, then move
offshore of the Carolinas tonight into Monday. A secondary
shortwave trough slides over the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight,
but it will be too far north and weak to phase with the southern
stream system. The weak surface high over New England is going
to help setup a CAD wedge over our area tonight, but it is not
strong enough to bring in temps much colder than 32-34F.

As a result, precipitation today is going to be a cold rain. The
highest elevations above 3000 feet in the Alleghenies are below
freezing this morning, and will remain at or below freezing
through tonight. This is where at least some steadier snow is
possible, with a dusting to around 1" of snow forecast. This is
most likely in those higher ridges of western Pendleton and
western Highland counties. Some snow could mix in tonight on the
backside of the low along the MD/PA border, but it won`t be
enough to accumulate beyond a dusting on the grass.

Overall, this looks to be a good soaking rain for the drought-
stricken region. Precip amounts range from around half an inch along
I-70 to around one inch from central VA to southern MD. Precip comes
to an end from west to east Monday morning as conditions dry out by
sunrise. The saturated boundary layer and light/calm winds once
precip moves out will favor some fog development tonight across the
area. There is uncertainty regarding how much fog develops due to a
steady light north wind, but the most aggressive model guidance has
dense fog over a wide swath of the area.

The northerly winds that persist at least through Monday afternoon
should continue to reinforce the present CAD wedge. As a result,
cloud cover and much cooler temps than currently forecast are
possible, especially along/north of I-66/US-48.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures are expected next
week with rain possible by midweek.

Ridging aloft will build over the East during the first half of the
week leading to above normal temperatures. There will likely be a
frontal zone that oscillates north and south across the area Wed-Fri
making temperatures, sky cover, and PoPs fcst somewhat tricky, but
overall temperatures should remain above average. Friday appears to
be the day that could have the largest errors as the spread in
temperatures is quite large and it is tied to the placement of a
sharp/strong baroclinic zone across the area. Eventually, a stronger
cold front clears the area at the end of the week bringing notably
cooler temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A steady light rain is expected to spread across the area this
morning to early afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions are expected with a
moderate rain this afternoon into the evening, with CIGs crashing to
IFR levels. Once rain comes to an end late this evening, there is
good model signal for fog to develop. Still some uncertainty
regarding how low CIGs and VSBY drop tonight, but very likely to be
at or near LIFR levels.

Conditions will take time to improve on Monday as low clouds hang
around most of the day. VFR conditions return Monday night into
Tuesday.

A warm front will try to lift through the area Wed and may bring
more clouds and a risk of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure will pass south of the waters through
tonight. North winds increase on the backside of the system,
especially over the middle to lower Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued from tonight through early Monday
afternoon to account for northerly gusts of 20-25 knots. Favorable
marine conditions return Monday night into Tuesday.

SCA conditions are possible again, particularly across the
southern waters Wednesday and through the rest of the week in
strengthening southerly flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion