184
FXUS61 KLWX 230700
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some information on the ongoing minor coastal flooding at
Annapolis and the potential at a few other sensitive locations
during the upcoming high tide cycle.

Also, removed a key message now that storms are out of the area
and we move into a dry pattern for at least a few days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions anticipated early next week.

- 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week,
     with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions anticipated early this week.

Some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the
Appalachians in northwest flow today. Breezy and cooler Sunday
with a few fair weather clouds being the only thing to speak of.

On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region.
Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central
Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With
high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and
cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday.

Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid
80s early this week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s
throughout the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-
week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

Beginning Wednesday, a warm tropical air mass tracks northeast over
the Mid-Atlantic, bringing humidity back to summertime normals as
well as a gradual increase in temperatures. A shortwave upper-level
trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes region and track
eastward towards the coast between Wednesday and Thursday, and this
combined with the increase in heat & humidity will create additional
chances for rain & thunderstorm development across the region. Model
guidance continues to show only marginal chances regarding any of
these thunderstorms becoming severe, with some uncertainty remaining
in the overall track of this system. Current guidance suggests that
this system could be slow-moving across the region, with rain
chances potentially extending into the end of the week as this
system slowly tracks offshore. Overall, expect increasing humidity
along with a few chances for rain late next week as this system
slowly tracks towards the coast. Upper-level zonal flow takes over
as this trough tracks east.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some clouds and low fog out there this morning at CHO and MRB at
times. That should scour out prior to sunrise as winds begin to
pick up along the cold front.

Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals
through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out
of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon
hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower).

Periodic showers & thunderstorms could create temporarily reduced
conditions at terminals during the afternoon & evening hours
Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds shift southeasterly by
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds turn out of the WNW to NW through Tuesday, and should
remain sub-SCA throughout that period for the most part. A few
gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north and
during the afternoon hours, but not seeing a prolonged period
enough to warrant an SCA at this time.

Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above
SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly
channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front.

Winds could reach marginal SCA conditions again Thursday
evening as a cold front passes through the region. Scattered
showers & thunderstorms in this timeframe could also create
locally gusty winds over the waters, perhaps necessitating
SMWs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated overnight, with a Coastal Flood
Advisory in effect for Annapolis. Alexandria and Havre de Grace
may come close in the upcoming high tide cycle as well. As the
front pushes through, anomalies will drop after the next cycle,
thus reducing any coastal flooding threat over the coming days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion