163
FXUS61 KLWX 061852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
152 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Another round of showers moving along and east of the US-29
corridor this afternoon, with a few additional showers or
sprinkles possible this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

- 2) Dry weather much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A return to dry and seasonable weather this
weekend.

As of mid afternoon, the main surface cold front had shifted
southeast toward the Delmarva, with a secondary front crossing
the Appalachians. The upper trough axis will pivot through this
evening along with the secondary surface front. After a wave of
showers moves along/east of the US-29 corridor this afternoon,
a few additional showers or sprinkles are possible as the upper
trough and secondary front pivot through this evening (mainly
along and west of the Allegheny Front and in the north-central
VA piedmont).

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along
with mainly dry conditions. Northwest breezes will gust 20 to 30
mph (locally 5-10 mph higher at higher elevations). A few
upslope rain or snow showers are possible Saturday along and
west of the Allegheny Front, with some stratocu possibly
drifting further east.

With high pressure building to the south, areas most likely to
see light to calm winds and clear skies ideal for radiational
cooling will be in central Virginia. The growing season remains
active east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains (except for
western Loudoun County in VA and Frederick County in MD). It is
possible frost or near freezing temperatures are observed during
the late night to early morning hours beginning late Saturday
night, with a gradual moderation possible by early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather much of next week.

Heading into next week, high pressure builds across our region
bringing dry and mostly sunny conditions through Thursday morning.
Ahead of a dry cold front, expect a brief warming trend of above-
average daytime temperatures that peak Tuesday afternoon. This cool
and dry airmass provides multiple opportunities for frost or freezing
overnight temperature late next week. Chances for showers return
Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system trails up the Mid-
Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers will pivot over the metro TAF sites through late
afternoon with minimal restrictions. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the upcoming
weekend, though some patchy early morning fog can`t be ruled out
near CHO. Brief S/SE winds (AOB 5 kts) east of MRB will shift to
W/NW through the weekend. At least occasional gusts of 15-20 kts
are possible overnight following a secondary frontal passage.
Gusts of 20-25 kts are likely during the daylight hours, most
likely peaking Saturday afternoon. CHO/MRB stand the best chance
of going light to calm each night through the weekend.

VFR conditions persist through the beginning of next week at all
terminals. Northwesterly breezes are expected on Monday before
winds shift more southwesterly on Tuesday at lighter speeds.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and light winds of a somewhat variable direction are
expected into this evening across the waters, with winds
shifting to the west and northwest by late evening. Overnight,
gusts increase in the wake of a pair of cold fronts exiting the
coast. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected at times much of the
weekend, and Small Craft Advisories will likely need to be
extended for much of the waters through Sunday.

Behind a dry cold front, gusty winds could sustain SCA conditions
through Monday evening. Northwesterly winds on Monday shift
southwesterly by Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KVH
AVIATION...DHOF/KVH
MARINE...DHOF/KVH

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion