334
FXUS61 KLWX 021942
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the Tennessee River Valley through
the middle of the week. A reinforcing cold front will cross the Mid-
Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. Low pressure will likely
track offshore of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean Friday into
Saturday, but there is considerable uncertainty as to how far north
the low and its associated precipitation gets. A couple of clipper-
like systems may affect the area heading into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 19Z/2PM EST, precipitation was exiting eastward across
the Chesapeake Bay. Temperatures had risen into the upper 30s to
lower 40s east of the Appalachians. Along and west of the
Allegheny Front, upslope flow and cold advection was resulting
in spotty freezing drizzle, snow showers, and temperatures
falling back into the upper 20s to lower 30s. In between, breaks
of sun were being observed.
Clouds will continue to thin out rather readily through this
evening east of the Eastern Continental Divide. To the west,
upslope flow will favor a continuation of freezing drizzle and
scattered to numerous snow showers. Have therefore extended the
Winter Weather Advisory along and west of the Allegheny Front
until 03Z/10PM EST.
A few residual flurries or patchy freezing drizzle may linger
along western-facing slopes above 2500 feet overnight. Otherwise,
drying will commence areawide as low temperatures drop into the
20s on northwesterly breezes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A broad area of cool high pressure will build from the Tennessee
River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Temperatures will
top out in the 40s for most with 30s at higher elevations amid
modest west to northwest winds. Other than lingering cloud cover
banked along and west of the Allegheny Front during the morning,
it should be a mainly sunny day with a few fair weather cumulus.
Light to calm winds and a mainly clear sky under high pressure
should cause temperatures to plummet rapidly in the evening on
Wednesday. High clouds building in late at night could cause
temperatures to level off or even rise a little bit after
dipping into the 20s (perhaps teens in the coldest spots).
A reinforcing cold front will approach from the Great Lakes and
Ohio River Valley Thursday morning, then cross the region
Thursday afternoon and evening. With a lack of deeper moisture,
the front should come through mostly dry. However, a few snow
showers are possible along and west of the Allegheny Front where
a coating to an inch or two of snow is possible. To the east, it
will become blustery with increasing clouds and perhaps a couple
of flurries into the I-81 corridor.
The coldest temperatures of the season thus far are expected
late Thursday night into early Friday morning in the wake of the
front. Lows will drop into the teens for most, with lower 20s
near and east of I-95, and in the lee of the Blue Ridge in
central Virginia. The highest elevations of the Alleghenies may
dip into the single digits. Wind will be light, 5 mph or less
out of the north except perhaps up to 10 mph at times atop the
highest peaks. Therefore, wind chills will not be much of a
factor except at the highest elevations where wind chills in the
single digits below zero are likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across much of the CONUS
through the long term period, leading to a prolonged stretch of
below normal temperatures locally. There may also be a couple
chances for some light wintry precipitation, with the greatest
chance occurring Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that a low amplitude
shortwave embedded in west-southwesterly flow aloft will track
across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic during
the day on Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will be in the process
of retreating offshore. While models are in agreement that this
general pattern will unfold, there are still some discrepancies with
respect to how far north precipitation will make it, and also what
the precipitation type will be. The majority of solutions have cold
air in place at the surface, which would favor wintry precipitation
(either a wintry mix or snow). However, there are some solutions
that show rain across southeastern portions of the forecast area.
Overall, precipitation totals should be on the lighter side.
Depending on the track of the system, a couple inches of snow or a
light wintry mix may be possible across portions of the forecast
area Friday afternoon into Friday night. We`ll continue to monitor
this system over the coming days.
Dry, but chilly conditions are expected across the area this
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s and
lower 40s, with low temperatures in the 20s. Forecast confidence
decreases significantly by Monday, with some solutions developing
an area of low pressure nearby as a shortwave trough moves
through aloft. Other solutions maintain dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low ceilings should lift no later than 22Z/5PM EST from west to
east as winds increase to 8-13 knots out of a 290-330 direction.
Gusts of 17-22 knots are possible, with a few peak gusts perhaps
slightly higher until about 03Z/10PM EST or so.
VFR clouds (FEW or SCT) are anticipated at the TAF sites through
Wednesday, with a general clearing trend expected. Bases between
FL045-FL060 can be expected as winds gradually diminish and shift
to more of a west to southwest heading by Wednesday evening. High
pressure building overhead will cause light to calm winds
Wednesday night. High clouds will increase late at night.
A reinforcing cold front will cross the region Thursday
resulting in an uptick in VFR stratocu and winds which may gust
20 to 25 knots out of the west to northwest. Winds will abate
and skies will clear Thursday night and turn to out of the north.
Sub-VFR conditions may be possible at times Friday afternoon into
Friday night as an area of low pressure passes to our south. Low
ceilings and wintry precipitation may be possible during that time.
Winds are expected to be light out of the south on Friday, and then
light out of the north to northwest on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will increase into this evening, likely peaking
early to mid evening before leveling off and gradually decreasing
overnight into Wednesday morning. A period of gale-force winds
is expected over the wider waters around southern Maryland.
High pressure moving overhead will cause winds to become lighter
and shift to out of the southwest by late Wednesday. A reinforcing
cold front will cross the region Thursday into Thursday night
resulting in an uptick in winds and subsequent SCA potential.
Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Winds
are forecast to be out of the south on Friday, and then north to
northwest Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
VAZ503.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ533-
534-537-541>543.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST tonight
for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion