544
FXUS61 KLWX 101427
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1027 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory over the northern Chesapeake Bay has expired.
Otherwise, no significant changes have been made to the
forecast. Well above normal temperatures will continue through
the middle of this week, followed by a strong cold frontal
passage.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.
- 2) Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant
drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front
Thursday.
- 3) A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next
week will lead to multiple temperature swings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures through
Wednesday afternoon.
Very warm temperatures will continue across the region through
Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures in the middle 70s and
perhaps approaching 80 (mainly in central VA). Dry conditions
once again this afternoon and plenty of sunshine.
Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy on Wednesday as
this day should be the warmest day. Some daily temperature
records look possible (see Climate section below for more
information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will
bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a
significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany
the front Thursday.
A deep, digging, positively northern stream trough and its
associated strong cold front dive out of the Great Lakes
Wednesday. The cold front crosses the area late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southern stream energy
will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday
afternoon and evening. All of this creates a very complex severe
weather setup across the region. The latest update from the
Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of
5) to include most of the area. However, it does come with some
caveats, which I`ll reiterate here. Primary among them is the
question of ongoing morning showers/convection, and the
potential impact that could have no destabilization during the
afternoon. As is typical, model guidance is very split on how
much instability is able to recover ahead of the pre-frontal
trough that will be the primary severe threat on the day. I do
think that seeing the latest CAM guidance in favor of 750-1250
J/kg of CAPE being able to develop has me a bit more concerned.
Assuming that we do get adequate CAPE, storms will fire along a
pre-frontal trough during the early afternoon hours across
eastern WV before moving east towards the metros during the
evening. The environment where storms may develop will be
impressive from a shear standpoint, with 40-50 kts of deep-layer
shear, and substantial amounts of Storm Relative Helicity (150+
m2/s2 0-1km, and 400+ m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer). This is more
than favorable for supercell structures to develop, with
damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two not out of
the question. Looking at the combination of shear and instability,
the STP is actually pretty impressive in model guidance. For
this reason, there is actually a CIG1 hatched area in our 2-5%
tornado probabilities across western MD and into the Potomac
Highlands. I wouldn`t even argue having with having that threat
even extended a bit further east along the MD/PA border in a
future update, but will let the 12z CAMs and machine learning
guidance come in for evaluation. Additionally, damaging winds,
large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be threats with any
storms that develop on Wednesday afternoon.
At any rate, Wednesday afternoon/evening is a day to watch
closely. Have your severe weather plans ready, in case you find
yourself needing to act on them. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts from our office, as well as the Storm Prediction
Center, for the latest updates.
Confidence drops off significantly with the severe threat along
the immediate cold front given the projected timing late
evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty
line of showers could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the
front pushes through. Would expect this to be more along the
lines of a gusty surge along the front (30-40 mph), followed by
increased synoptic winds shortly thereafter.
Expect any residual moisture over the mountains on Thursday to
change to snow with a coating to 1" expected on grassy/elevated
surfaces.
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, will be the concern for
gusty winds. Expect gusty south/southwesterly flow Wednesday
ahead of the boundary switching to the west and northwest
Thursday behind the front. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph (45 to 55 mph
along the ridges) can be expected in warm air advection
Wednesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty in regards to
these gusts given mixing.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A series of cold fronts crossing the area into
early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings.
Temperatures take a 15 to 30 degree dive Thursday as gusty west
to northwest flow ramps up. Confidence is a bit higher here for
the wind given the residual gradient/high pressure returning from
the south. A non-diurnal temperature spread is expected with highs
ranging from the upper 30s over the mountains to upper 50s along
and east of I-95.
A progressive mid-latitude pattern will allow a myriad of short and
longwave troughs to trek across the country. Such a regime supports
marked temperature swings as the associated cold fronts push toward
the Eastern Seaboard. The peak in the warmer phase of this pattern
would be on Sunday before temperatures come crashing down into next
week.
A compact upper trough pushing across the Great Lakes toward eastern
Canada will carry a deep cyclone with it. Global guidance keep the
low track mainly near/north of the international border with Canada.
Given how far the forcing is from the local area, expect a few
showers across the Alleghenies on Friday, but otherwise most of the
area remains dry. The robust wind field with the trough will make
for breezy conditions on both Friday and Saturday. Given the higher
winds are aloft, the strongest gusts should be confined to mountain
locales.
There has been a trend in the guidance toward warmer conditions for
Sunday as highs rise well into the 60s. However, an even more
pronounced system swings across the eastern U.S. late Sunday into
early next week. In response, global ensemble solutions show a
marked fall in temperatures. This brings a return to more winter-
like conditions for the early/mid portions of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds
will remain light out of the south. Some patchy fog is possible
tonight as more warm and moist air moves in.
A strong cold front will bring the return of sub-VFR conditions
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Showers and even a few
thunderstorms look to impact the terminals during this time.
Some storms could be severe Wednesday afternoon/evening, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. There
remains some uncertainty with regards to coverage of storms, so
that will be the main question mark in the forecast at this
time.
Outside of the shower and thunderstorm threat will be the wind.
Expect gusty south to southwesterly winds up to 25 kts Wednesday
switching to the northwest with gusts 25 to 35 kts Thursday
afternoon.
Expect largely VFR conditions on Friday into Saturday with any
precipitation threats to the west of all TAF sites. The bigger story
will be the gusty winds on Friday ahead of another strong cold
front. Ahead of this system, expect southerly gusts to around 25 to
30 knots before winds shift to west-northwesterly into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds prevail this afternoon in a light southerly wind
as high pressure builds nearby.
SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible,
especially over the open and middle waters of the Chesapeake
Bay/tidal Potomac River. This will become increasingly likely by
Wednesday evening, with more marginal chances during the day.
A strong cold front will cross the waters late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will lead to a few gusty showers/t-storms (SMWs
may be needed as these push through) and gusty post-frontal
north to northwest flow. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected
with even some northerly channeling over the northern Chesapeake
Bay. Winds will gradually decrease Thursday night into early
Friday morning.
Ahead of a strong cold front, southerly channeling effects will lead
to increasing wind fields across the area waterways. Gusts up to
30 to 40 knots are possible on Friday, especially over the
Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for Friday
into Friday night, with Gales possible.
Winds diminish some behind the front with mainly west-
northwesterlies on Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily high records could be tied or set this afternoon and
Wednesday.
Wednesday is the most likely day for warm low records to be tied/set
due to cooler air arriving after midnight Wednesday night.
Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 79F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 57F/2016 57F/2016
Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 59F/2016 49F/1967
Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 57F/2016 53F/1955
Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 78F/2016 74F/1967
Record Warm Low 56F/2020 52F/1986
Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 83F/1925
Record Warm Low 58F/2020 53F/2016
Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 78F/2021
Record Warm Low 53F/2016 49F/1955
Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021
Record Warm Low 57F/2016 53F/2016
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 10 March 11
Record High 82F/2016 76F/1967
Record Warm Low 60F/2016 56F/2016
56F/1955
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion