085
FXUS61 KLWX 262050 AAA
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
350 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross from west to east this morning. A
second stronger cold front will follow this afternoon and
evening. Low pressure will linger over southeastern Canada while
high pressure builds across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley
through Friday. High pressure will move overhead Saturday, then
move offshore Sunday into early next week as the next system
approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal line of moderate showers and embedded
thunderstorms is making its way across northern MD. This is
acting to bring down some of the gusty winds aloft in its wake,
but only around 20-30 mph for now at most sites. Strongest winds
are yet to come, as the actual frontal boundary is moving across
the Potomac Highlands with some additional lighter showers.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures have soared into the 60s
and even low 70s. West of the boundary, temperatures are quickly
dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s, with increasingly gusty
winds. This is all associated with an occluded low centered
over the Great Lakes.
As this cold front that pushes through later today, a
substantial and long-lasting cold air mass will be ushered into
the region, along with some very strong winds. The mountains
will see a prolonged period of strong wind gusts, which
necessitated a Wind Advisory which was issued overnight. That
remains in effect for the Alleghenies, and has also been
expanded to include the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern
Highland/Pendleton. Some strong gusts are possible in between,
especially on the ridges, though it does appear more brief
compared to the higher elevations.
In the wake of the cold front tonight, some upslope snow showers
are possible in the climo-favored areas. Could see a quick half
inch to an inch of accumulation overnight in western Garrett and
western Grant counties especially.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Much colder and blustery conditions for Thanksgiving Day, as
highs drop way down into the 40s (20s in the mountains). With
the winds gusting around 25 to 35 mph during the day, wind
chills struggle to get out of the low 30s (single digits to teens
in the mountains).
A decent upslope snow event is forecast Thursday night into
Friday. A powerful shortwave will will push into the Allegheny
Front late Thursday evening into Friday. This system may not
have the greatest connection to moisture from the Great Lakes
region, but there seems to be just enough to at least get some
snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front. Forecasts
soundings show some CAPE within the DGZ during this period as
well, suggesting that this could at least briefly be somewhat
convective in nature. Additionally, temperatures will be falling
into the teens and low 20s, thus leading to very high SLRs.
While QPF amounts are still very much in question, what does
fall should accumulate very efficiently given the above factors.
Planning to increase snowfall amounts during this period with
the next update. As of right now, should fall short of advisory
criteria, primarily due to the aforementioned weak moisture
transport out of the Great Lakes. Something in the 1 to 3 inch
bin seems reasonable at this time. Gusty winds during this time
could further complicate matters for those traveling early
Friday morning, as visibility could be greatly reduced as well.
The strongest winds will occur on Friday within the reinforcing
shot of CAA. Expect frequent gusts to 40 mph. A Wind Advisory
was not considered at this time, as current guidance support
sub-advisory winds at this time. However, the winds paired with
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s will keep wind chills into the
20s and low 30s all day for those outside of the mountains. For
those in the mountains, wind chills likely struggle to get out
of the teens (and even near or below 0 on the highest ridges).
Winds begin to subside late Friday night as high pressure
starts building in. Cold with lows in the teens and low 20s,
low teens in the mountains and wind chills in the teens and
single digits respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build overhead on Saturday, bringing dry
conditions and lighter winds. Skies will be mostly sunny, but
temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the upper 30s
and lower 40s for most (upper 20s/low 30s in the mountains).
With mostly clear skies to start and light winds, temperatures
should quickly drop back into the 20s and lower 30s Saturday night.
As high pressure retreats offshore, a shortwave and attendant area
of low pressure will track from the Central Plains northeastward
toward the Great Lakes. As large scale ascent increases,
precipitation will break out across the area very late Saturday
night into the day Sunday. Various sources of guidance differ with
respect to how quickly precipitation will break out. If
precipitation were to break out early in the day before daytime
heating were to occur, it could start as a brief period of freezing
rain. At the moment this freezing rain scenario appears to have a
low probability of occurrence, and would likely be limited to
locations along and west of US-15 if it were to occur. However, it
bears watching as we move closer to the event, especially since
Sunday is one of the busier travel days of the year. Elsewhere, just
rain is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 40s. Total
rainfall amounts look to be on the lighter side, with a general
tenth to a quarter of an inch for most. Rain will move out of the
area by late Sunday night.
Quieter conditions are expected on Monday as Sunday`s system passes
off to our northeast. Mostly cloudy skies are expected, with highs
generally in the 40s (30s mountains).
Forecast confidence decreases markedly by Tuesday. On the synoptic
scale a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough
encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out
of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be
a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various
sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large
amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system.
Some solutions show large precipitation totals, while others show
little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix,
and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be
colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have
a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to
occur. It`s too early to get into details at this point, but this
system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has
at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry
precipitation event of the year.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty winds expected to mix down later this afternoon/evening as
a powerful cold front, currently draped across western PA down
through central WV, pushes through the region. A line of pre-
frontal showers and a few embedded thunderstorms is passing
close to BWI/MTN, which could briefly reduce VSBY (30 mins or
less) and increase wind speeds.
Strongest winds will mix down with the actual frontal passage
this evening, with 30 to 35 knot wind gusts likely for at least
a brief period between 23z and 03z from west to east. Outside of
the big surge of winds, gusts will generally be around 20-25
knots through much of Thursday, with VFR conditions expected.
Winds increase again on Friday afternoon when gusts to 30 to 35
kt are expected. This is due to a secondary surge of cold
advection with the reinforcing shot of cold air.
VFR conditions and light winds are expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds overhead. Sub-VFR conditions and rain appear
possible at times on Sunday. Winds will be out of the south at
around 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Sudden-onset Gale conditions likely this evening, thus the Gale
Warning remains in effect, starting at 7 PM this evening. With
current wind gusts generally around 10 to 15 knots, and SMW
will likely be needed when the onset of Gale-force winds becomes
evident given the rapid change in speed and direction.
Expecting this somewhere around 6-8 PM this evening, but will
continue to monitor as the afternoon progresses.
High-end SCA conditions continue through Thanksgiving Day and
again into Friday. Can`t completely rule out some Gale-Force
gusts throughout this period, particularly on Friday. Highest
likelihood of these stronger gusts would be generally north of
the Bay Bridge, and in the upper Potomac waters around DC.
Winds should drop off below SCA criteria Saturday as high
pressure returns briefly.
Light winds are expected on Saturday as high pressure builds over
the waters. Winds will turn out of the south on Sunday and could
near low-end SCA levels within channeled southerly flow.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
MDZ008.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
531-535-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ530-531-538-539.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530-531-535-538-
539.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...CJL/KJP
MARINE...CJL/KJP
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion