894
FXUS61 KLWX 201926
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories for Chesapeake Bay and the Lower Tidal
Potomac were extended through the day Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
through early next week.

The pattern will remain relatively stagnant for today and
tomorrow, with a Nor`easter continuing to circulate off the
Mid- Atlantic coast and high pressure gradually building to our
north. Northerly winds will continue to advect dry air into the
region, leading to sunny skies during the day and clear skies at
night. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, with highs
in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the mid to upper 30s (west of
the Blue Ridge) to lower to middle 40s (east of the Blue Ridge).

By Thursday, what remains of the upper reflection of the offshore
closed low gradually becomes absorbed into a deep trough over
eastern Canada. These adjoining features are slated to pull eastward
into the Canadian Maritimes while upstream heights build across the
Mississippi Valley. From Friday and into this weekend, this broad
ridge axis advances eastward ahead of a trough inhabiting the
western/central U.S. As this occurs, there are some hints of another
upper low center getting pinched off near the Carolina coast.
However, its far southward displacement should minimize any direct
impacts from this system. Overall synoptic uncertainty does increase
markedly toward the end of the weekend and into early next week.
Most notably, it revolves around a split in the jet streams over the
middle of the continent.

Looking down at the surface, high pressure dominates through late
week while becoming more centered over the northeastern U.S. by
Saturday. This ensures continued tranquil weather heading toward the
last week of October. Expect dry conditions along with abundant
sunshine each day. The air mass will remain quite dry owing to the
prevailing northerly component to the local wind fields. Most days
should yield highs in the 60s (50s for the mountains). The coldest
overnight periods will likely be Friday and Saturday nights as lows
fall into the 30s to low 40s. With the growing season having ended
from the Blue Ridge westward, it remains to be seen if any
frost/freeze threats emerge off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and northerly winds are expected both today and
tomorrow. A few gusts to around 15-20 knots may be possible at
times at MTN, BWI, DCA, and IAD.

VFR conditions are anticipated for Thursday through Saturday given
robust high pressure over the region. Winds through Friday will
mainly be northerly with afternoon gusts to around 15 to 20 knots.
As high pressure settles overhead, winds turn lighter by
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent northerly flow is expected to continue over the
waters through Thursday as a Nor`easter continues to circulate
offshore and high pressure gradually builds to our north. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Lower Tidal Potomac
and Chesapeake Bay through the day Wednesday.

Expect a northerly wind to largely dominate through Friday before
turning more northeasterly by the night. Small Craft Advisories may
be needed on Thursday, but particularly by late Thursday into Friday
morning given a northerly surge in the winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Nor`easter will continue to circulate offshore through
Thursday as high pressure builds to our north. This will lead to
persistent northerly flow over the waters. Minor flooding may be
possible at many tidal sites tonight through the day Thursday,
but some uncertainty still remains.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
 ANZ530>534- 537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion