878
FXUS61 KLWX 070135
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
835 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upgraded areas west of Blue Ridge to Extreme Cold Warning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging
winds Saturday.
- 2) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
this morning through Saturday morning.
- 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next
week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and
damaging winds Saturday.
There is extremely high confidence in a prolonged period of
dangerous, life-threatening wind chills (paired with strong to
damaging winds) across the area Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are
in place across the entire forecast area from tonight through
Sunday morning.
A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with
arctic high pressure moving in from Canada that yields a very
tight pressure gradient across the area. A strengthening LLJ at
850-925mb that crosses the area Saturday morning will support
the mixing of stronger winds down to the surface.
A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right as the Arctic
front passes through, which looks to be between 1AM to 6AM from
northwest to southeast. Winds are going to rapidly increase
from 5-10 mph to gusting 30-40 mph in tens of minutes, with
gusts of 50-60 mph mixed in there. Wind gusts then remain steady
at 45-55 mph through Saturday evening, with embedded gusts of
60-70 mph at times (higher gusts possible in the mountains). The
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through
Saturday evening for the entire area.
Wind chills are forecast to crash below zero by daybreak
Saturday, and remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at Spruce
Knob. Elsewhere, wind chills as low as -10F to -20F are
expected.
This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The
current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below
zero over most of the area from Saturday early morning to Sunday
late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has
observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last
occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero
lasted upwards of 30-36 hours).
Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will
be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less
time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late this morning through Saturday morning
Snow squalls along Arctic Front observed on CLE and PBZ radar.
These will impact Alleghenies by midnight or so with winds
really increasing thereafter. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Allegheny Front.
Snow squalls are possible with the front overnight. In addition
to accumulating snowfall, gusty northwest winds as high as 50 to
60 mph will result in blowing and drifting snow. This will
yield reduced visibilities as low as 1/4 mile across roadways.
When/where the snow and wind overlap there will be near-
blizzard conditions, and after the snow falls blowing snow
remains a big issue heading into Saturday. Travel disruptions
are likely along I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from
the PA/MD line south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield,
WV, US-33/WV-28 west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of
Monterey, VA. Cannot rule out a couple streamers further east
later tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend in temperatures is expected
early next week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following
on Wednesday.
Upper troughing will finally depart offshore early next week,
enabling more of a zonal flow pattern to develop across the CONUS.
As a result, the Arctic airmass that will be in place this weekend
will gradually erode from southwest to northeast early next week,
leading to a slow, but steady warming trend in temperatures.
High temperatures on Monday are forecast to range from the mid 20s
across northeast Maryland to the mid to upper 30s across the
Central Shenandoah Valley and Central Virginia. Notably warmer
conditions are forecast on Tuesday, with much of the Shenandoah
Valley, Potomac Highlands, and Central Virginia making it into the
50s. Similar temperatures are forecast on Wednesday, but model
guidance shows much greater spread with respect to forecast
temperatures with precipitation potentially moving in from the west.
The warmer temperatures next week could potentially lead to more
substantial melting of the snowpack that is currently in place
across the entire forecast area.
Model guidance continues to show significant spread on Wednesday,
with a northern stream disturbance tracking to our north through the
Great Lakes while an upper low that originates over the Desert
Southwest shears out into an open wave as it passes to our south.
Light precipitation may be possible for a time on Wednesday
as these systems pass through, but forecast uncertainty remains
high. A few ensemble members have that precipitation falling as
freezing rain or snow, especially across northern Maryland, while
others have it falling as all rain.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A powerful Arctic front crosses the area late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Winds rapidly shift northwest and
increase suddenly. Expect winds to go from 5-10 kt to gusting
35-40 kt within an hour. Gusts of 40-50 kt are expected through
the day on Saturday, with gusts above 50 kt possible at times in
the afternoon (TEMPO group was added to account for this).
Winds begin to decrease in the late afternoon, but still gusting
30-35 kt into the evening. Winds remain around 20-30 kt on
Sunday before diminishing Sunday night.
Winds should be fairly benign for the early portion of next
week. Winds will likely shift SE overnight on Monday, and
generally stay at 5-10 knots until a potential Wednesday low
increases gust potential. VFR conditions likely for Monday and
Tuesday, although a southern pressure gradient may cause some
lower CIGs Monday night at KMRB.
&&
.MARINE...
A potent Arctic front pushes across the forecast area with a
rapid onset of Gale Force Winds expected tonight. A Gale
Warning is in effect for a few hours before daybreak to handle
this sudden onset of dangerous winds. This transitions to a
Storm Warning for the rest of Saturday where gusts up to 50 kt
are expected. Gale conditions likely persist Saturday night,
before winds diminish on Sunday to SCA levels. Sub-SCA winds
return Sunday night.
NW winds ranging 10-15 knots are expected for most of the day
Monday, and SCAs are not out of the realm of possibility as
winds continue to decrease after Saturday`s major arctic frontal
event. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible. By Tuesday, winds and
gusts should be fairly low, ranging 5-10 knots with a
southeastern directional shift occurring overnight Monday. &&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected this weekend as strong northwest
winds push water down the bay. Low Water Advisories have been
issued from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Water
levels are forecast to drop to -2FT MLLW north of the Bay Bridge
and in the upper tidal Potomac River, with -1 FT MLLW
elsewhere.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for DCZ001.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-018-501>510.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
Low Water Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for
MDZ008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MDZ016-017.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MDZ501.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
for MDZ501-510.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for MDZ509-510.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday for
MDZ509.
VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for VAZ025>031-053-054-501-503>508-526-527.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for VAZ036>040-050-051-055>057-502.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ503.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
for VAZ503-507-508.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ036>040-
050-051-055>057-502.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ503.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
for WVZ501-503-505.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ530.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530.
Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
Low Water Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ532-533-542.
Low Water Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST
Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CPB/KRR
AVIATION...CPB/KRR
MARINE...CPB/KRR
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion