619
FXUS61 KLWX 230229
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
929 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
will track off to our northwest on Wednesday, causing a strong
cold front to move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak ridge of high pressure will build in at the surface
overnight. This will cause winds to go light or calm. Lows
tonight will drop back into the 30s to near 40 beneath partly
cloudy skies. Otherwise, in places that do encounter calm winds,
patchy fog could develop and reduce visibility to around a mile
or two.

A shortwave will move by to the north on Sunday. An associated
clipper low will track across Eastern Ontario and Quebec.
Further to the west, high pressure will build over the
Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys. No precipitation is expected
locally as the aforementioned system tracks to our north, but
there may be some passing clouds at times. Winds will initially
be light out of the southwest, and temperatures are forecast to
climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most (40s mountains).
A reinforcing cold front will move through during the afternoon
hours, causing winds to turn out of the northwest and pick up
in magnitude. Gusts of around 30 mph late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
Gusts of around 30 mph will be possible into the evening
hours. Clear skies are expected Sunday night, with lows in the
30s.

High pressure will build overhead on Monday, leading to light
winds and dry conditions. Skies should start out mostly sunny,
but high clouds will be on the increase over the course of the
day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough located over the central plains deepens as it
pivots eastward toward the forecast area Tuesday. At the surface, a
low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes region is pushed
northeastward into Canada as the associated cold front approaches
the forecast area before moving through on Wednesday. Temperatures
gradually warm Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front as
southerly flow ushers in increased moisture and warmer air. High
temperatures on tuesday will be in the 50s for most with isolated
locations reaching the low 60s. On Wednesday, high temperatures rise
into the 60s to low 70s across the area with only those at higher
elevations staying in the 50s. Precipitation chances peak Tuesday
night into Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage, with conditions
gradually drying out beginning Wednesday afternoon.

Behind the front, surface high builds over the area Thursday and
Friday. Dry conditions are expected both days. Temperatures on
Thanksgiving Day will be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to the
day prior with highs in the 40s for most. Temperatures continue to
cool for Friday with highs staying in the 30s and 40s across the
area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ceilings are expected to be VFR at all terminals and should
remain VFR through Monday. Some patchy fog in spots could reduce
visibility briefly to a mile or two but hard to pinpoint if it
will be at the terminals or between the terminals at a distance.
Winds will turn out of the southwest by tomorrow morning, and
then northwest tomorrow afternoon behind a reinforcing cold
front. Winds may gust to around 25-30 knots late tomorrow
afternoon or tomorrow evening within northwesterly flow. Lighter
winds are expected on Monday as high pressure builds in from
the west.

Southerly winds on Tuesday shift shift to westerly on Wednesday as a
cold front approaches and moves across the terminals. South winds
gust around 15 knots Tuesday afternoon before becoming light
overnight. West winds gust 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday across all
terminals. Precipitation chances both days will yield possible
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminishing overnight then turning out of the southwest
Sunday morning. A cold front will move over the waters late
Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift to out of the northwest
behind the front and pick up in magnitude. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for all waters late tomorrow
afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory winds lingering through
much or all of the night across the wider waters. A few gusts
could even near low- end Gale conditions late tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will be on the decrease Monday as high pressure
builds in from the west.

Winds primarily remain below SCA criteria on Tuesday with the
exception being the southern portions of the Chesapeake bay. Here,
southerly channeling will lead to winds nearing SCA criteria. Winds
become light overnight before shifting to westerly on Wednesday.
SCA criteria winds are possible across all waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion