993
FXUS61 KLWX 260117
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
917 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made some changes in Key message 1 to remove mention of any
potential severe weather this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) A cold front will slowly cross the region delivering
waves of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
- (2) Hot and humid conditions are expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will slowly cross the region
delivering waves of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
A few clusters of convection developed earlier this
afternoon/evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front
back over the Ohio River Valley. There was some thought that
these could come into western MD with a little bit of steam
left, but that has not happened. Storms are quickly dwindling as
they move into more stable air as night falls.
The aforementioned front will slowly sag south into the area,
with a tightening low-level frontal zone late Friday through
Saturday afternoon. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are possible. Any residual outflow could help enhance
convergence and lift along the frontal zone (most likely south
of I-70) Friday afternoon. If stronger heating develops along
and south of this axis, lingering mid-level flow of 30-40 kts,
steeper low-level lapse rates, and stronger CAPE/DCAPE could
result in downbursts with the strongest storms (again generally
45-60 mph). Due to lingering uncertainties in frontal placement,
how much flow is left, and how much instability builds,
confidence remains very low and conditional for severe weather,
despite a high probability of measurable rain and lightning at
some point Friday into Friday night.
Even with the loss of heating, moisture advection over the
slowly sagging front is expected to result in showers and a few
thunderstorms through Friday night into Saturday. The exact placement
of the front becomes even more uncertain by this time, but the
trend is for a bit slower progression. This raises rain chances
well into the day Saturday. Although it likely won`t be a wash
out (i.e. raining the entire time), waves of showers are quite
possible. Any severe weather threat would remain near and south
of the front, which at this point would favor the I-64 corridor
and points south. Confidence is a bit higher in stronger instability
building south of the front, but the northern extent of such
instability remains in question.
Drier though still somewhat humid conditions are expected Sunday
with perhaps a pop up shower or two near the mountains as the
front slowly slides away and weakens.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions are expected next week.
By Monday, a large area of upper-level ridging builds over the Ohio
River Valley, allowing for surface high pressure that will
persist over the Mid-Atlantic for several days. Heat likely
begins to ramp up Tuesday and Wednesday, along with elevated
dewpoint temperatures that will produce widespread hot and
humid conditions. Early ensembles indicate heat indices
potentially reaching 100F by Wednesday; although ensemble
temperature data shows some spread by this time, it looks likely
to see an extended period of summertime heat especially with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s contributing to indices.
This upper-level ridging will allow for temperatures to
increase through late next week. An isolated diurnal shower or two
remains possible depending on the position of the ridge by midweek,
with next chances for a frontal boundary passage occurring late next
week that could bring back additional precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds have really tapered off this evening and will continue to
do so into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are also expected
during this time.
After 19Z or 20Z Friday, SHRA/TS chances increase markedly. A
boundary will slide slowly southward across the area with
moisture advection overrunning it, and this is expected to cause
scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Carrying
PROB30s for now through early/mid afternoon, then bringing more
likely precip in late afternoon into the evening form W to E.
Storms Friday afternoon could bring some gusty winds along with
them, but not looking at a significant severe weather threat at
this time.
Additional activity is possible through Friday night, with a
chance of remnant TS activity approaching from the OH Valley
late into Saturday morning. For now, have kept thunder from the
TAFs after around 02-04z Saturday, but can`t completely rule it
out. Will re-evaluate in future TAFs.
Additional shower activity and lower CIGs are possible through
Saturday as a front slowly slides south. Wind direction may be a
bit variable between S and NW depending on the placement of the
front, but should be generally light outside of convection.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across terminals Sunday
through Tuesday. Light north/northeast winds shift southerly by
Tuesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs are in effect for all the waters through tonight. Southerly
winds are really starting to peak as we lost daytime heating and
land/water temps come closer. Winds gradually diminish through
Friday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times late Friday
afternoon through Saturday with gusty winds and lower visibility
in and near stronger storms. Winds turn NW behind a cold front
this weekend.
Winds likely remain below SCA thresholds Sunday-Monday,
potentially increasing to marginal SCA conditions on Tuesday
evening. Northeast winds shift southerly by Tuesday morning.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530-531-535-
536-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/SRT
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion