505
FXUS61 KLWX 110741
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
341 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Monitoring a decaying clusters of storms ejecting eastward from
eastern WV and western MD this morning. Another afternoon and
evening of severe storms with a focus south of the I-95 metros.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe thunderstorms possible again today with a focus south
and west of the I-95 metros. Damaging winds are the main threat.

- 2) Showers and thunderstorms remain possible at times Wednesday
  through Friday, with a cooling trend expected toward the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms possible again today with a
focus south and west of the I-95 metros. Damaging winds are the main
threat.

Already off to a somewhat active start this morning with additional
scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Tracking several areas of concern this morning which will in turn
set us for the potential severe weather threat this afternoon. The
first area of concern is a decaying complex of storms ejecting
eastward from north-central WV, southwest PA, and western MD early
this morning. Current guidance drags this activity toward the I-81
corridor around 8-10z/4-6am this morning before dissipating it as it
works further east toward the metros. WInd gusts up to 40 mph along
with small hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with this clustering of storms especially west of
I-81. The convective debris/cloud cover leftover from this area
of storms will help determine how much severe weather we
actually see this afternoon.

The next area of concern is a developing cluster of storms up across
the upper Midwest. This cluster of storms will slide south and east
through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley later this
morning into midday before surging south and east through
central/southern WV and into central and southwest VA this
afternoon and evening. Hi-res guidance is all over the place
when it comes to how this system will evolve and impact our
region in regards to both timing and coverage of storms based
upon the convective debris this morning. Some of the guidance
has a linear feature working across central WV into southwest VA
perhaps grazing the southern Shenandoah Valley while other
pieces of guidance have a cluster of storms working across the
entirety of the forecast area between 19z-23z-3- 7pm.
Additionally a secondary batch of showers and thunderstorms may
come through during the overnight period into early Wednesday
morning similar to what we are seeing now. SPC maintains a
Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for eastern WV/far western MD and
the Shenandoah Valley. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out 5) has been
outlooked elsewhere across the region for through tonight.
Damaging winds will once again be the main threat along with
isolated instances of flash flooding.

Beyond Tuesday, timing, coverage, and locations of storms remains
uncertain despite strong mid level flow and increased height falls
across the region. Shortwave disturbances will continue to pulse
through although more cloud cover may be noted which could dampen
the threat. Machine learning probabilities for severe weather have
decreased to around 5-20 percent with a focus further south. These
probabilities taper even more late week as the front finally drops
into the region. Once again damaging winds will be the main threat
with storms along with isolated instances of flash flooding.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms remain possible at
times Wednesday through Friday, with a cooling trend expected
toward the weekend.

Daily storm chances look to continue through at least Friday as a
cold front gradually drifts south. Ahead of that front will be
several fast moving shortwave disturbances which will help aid
in shower and thunderstorm development during the diurnal
periods. The southward progress of the cold front is uncertain
however, and could be modulated by various convective complexes
and a potential wave of low pressure tracking along it Thursday
or Friday. Both physics-based and AI guidance show lower severe
weather chances Wednesday through Friday with declining
instability. Showers and thunderstorms could remain possible
though with the front nearby. Thursday may be relatively the
hottest day as heights briefly rise.

For Saturday in particular, there may be a better chance of
drying out as high pressure builds to the north. This will also
bring a corresponding cool down in temperatures (potentially a
bit below normal) along with lower humidity. The front won`t be
too far to the south however, and will likely attempt to lift
north later this weekend or early next week as a low pressure
system moves into the Great Lakes. Thus, some low end PoPs
remain in the forecast each day through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall looking at prevailing VFR conditions through at least
Thursday given the lack of any real front pushing through. Brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely in the morning hours with
convection decaying as it pushes east from the Ohio River
Valley and in the afternoon with any convection that re-
develops. Thunderstorm coverage will be the greatest today
before diminish Wednesday into late week.

Watching a cluster of storms coming across the mountains this
morning. This activity will decay as it works east impacting MRB
prior to 9z/5am and working eastward into the corridor between
9- 11z/5-7am. Frequent lightning with wind gusts up to 30 kts is
encompassing this complex of storms as it dives south and east
into the area. Did add TEMPOS at MRB with -SHRA at the corridor
terminals given the lower confidence for convection making it
east. This thunderstorm activity will help diminish any threats,
especially along and north of a line from MRB-IAD-DCA this
afternoon. Locations further south toward CHO may have a better
bet at seeing organized convection later this afternoon and
evening between 20-00z/4-8pm. This convection is part of a
complex of storms over the upper Midwest which will work it`s
way down into central and southwest VA either later this
afternoon or tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
modeled during the overnight period although confidence is low
given what may happen earlier in the day. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall as the primary concerns.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday through Friday
but will depend on the position of an approaching cold front and the
timing of any disturbances. Outside of the thunderstorms expect
patchy fog between the terminals each morning through Thursday.
Winds will remain light out of the west and southwest at less than
15 kts.

VFR conditions are more likely Friday and Saturday as high pressure
builds into the region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms return
Sunday into early next week as the front tries to lift back into the
region.


&&

.MARINE...
Overall sub-SCA level winds are expected through Thursday. Wind
direction is a bit uncertain as a cold front slowly approaches
and various disturbances/thunderstorm clusters pass through.
There could be an enhanced northwesterly surge once the front
does push through Friday or Saturday.

Outside of the background winds, expect daily shower and
thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening through upcoming
Friday (though can`t rule out storms overnight and in the mornings
as well). Special Marine Warnings may be needed to encompass any
stronger thunderstorms that may form especially today (especially as
an organized line approaches) and Wednesday. Strong to severe wind
gusts and frequent lightning will be the main threats.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ509-510.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion