062
FXUS61 KLWX 221829
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wet, cool pattern continues through the holiday
weekend.

- Daily rain chances persist into early next week, with
  gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet, cool pattern continues through the holiday
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure lifting from the lower MS River Valley to the OH
River Valley will continue to generate areas of light to
moderate rain into early this evening. The rain may taper off a
bit mid to late evening, but another round of more persistent
rain and/or showers is expected to develop early Saturday
morning as a weak area of low pressure lifts north along the
stationary front near the coast. Expect this second round of
rain to persist much of the day Saturday. The steady rain should
taper off Saturday night, but areas of drizzle and/or fog may
persist late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches are possible through 8 PM Saturday
night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily rain chances persist into early next week, with
gradually warming temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The frontal zone which is currently pushing southward to the
Carolinas is expected to return to the region in time for Memorial
Day. This is in response to a building of heights as a large
subtropical ridge flexes northward from offshore of the southeastern
U.S. The consequence of this boundary nearby will increase the risk
of shower activity, and even some thunderstorms depending on the
degree of diurnal heating. Eventually this mid/upper ridge begins to
flatten in response to a series of northern stream impulses passing
by to the north. This ultimately nudges the meandering boundary off
to the south. Where this frontal system ends up settling will
determine the degree of convective threat as well as potential
warming trends. At this point, the multi-global ensemble system
favors a slow but steady warm up next week with mid 70s to low 80s
for most. Looking toward Thursday, all ensembles support a deep
upper trough digging down from the Canadian Maritimes. This will
help push the front back toward the south by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Persistent rain is expected through Saturday afternoon with
IFR/LIFR cigs. Rain or showers become more scattered Saturday
night and Sunday, but IFR cigs persist through at least Sunday.
Some breaks in the clouds appear likely Memorial with cigs
improving to at least MVFR. Scattered showers are still possible
next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Saturday in
response to strengthening onshore flow. Winds are expected to
diminish Saturday night and remain below SCA criteria through
the first half of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Strengthening onshore flow through the weekend is going to
raise tidal levels across the Chesapeake Bay. Annapolis could
approach minor flood stage Saturday morning, and most other
locations approach action stage. Winds weaken Sunday and that
should allow water levels to drop.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KRR
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion