691
FXUS61 KLWX 060721
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds are going to be close to Small Craft Advisory conditions,
though most likely fluctuate between 15-20 knots this
afternoon. Marine Weather Statements or Small Craft Advisories
could be issued later this morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening, though coverage
will be low. Higher chances for severe thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot, humid conditions persist into next week, along with
  daily chances for shower and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot, humid conditions persist into next week,
along with daily chances for shower and thunderstorms.

The Bermuda High remains in place across the western Atlantic into
next week. PWATS will be near or greater than 2" in the valleys with
1-2" in the mountains. South to southwesterly flow is maintained
over the Mid-Atlantic. Hot and humid conditions each afternoon, with
highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the low
100s each of the Blue Ridge.

A surface trough is progged to remain over the area through Friday.
Aloft, pieces of shortwave energy continue passing overhead and help
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Deep
layer shear is forecast to increase through the weekend as the
subtropical jet stream strengthens. Hotter conditions may cause
relatively steeper low-level lapse rates and the wind field
strengthens a bit (especially Friday). This is going to bring an
increasing chance for strong to severe thunderstorms each day, with
Friday and Saturday looking to have the highest chances. On
Saturday, a more potent shortwave trough is forecast to move
overhead that could aid in stronger, more organized severe
convection. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.

A quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop Sunday into into next week.
Sunday could bring a short reprieve as dry conditions prevail.
Seasonably hot, humid conditions along with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms return Monday through most of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the time through
early next week. South to southwest winds prevail for the foreseeable
future as the Bermuda high persists across the western Atlantic.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening through early next week, which could result in periods of
restrictions at affected terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories could be needed for parts of the waters at
times through Saturday, mainly in the late afternoon to evening.
Otherwise, winds remain around 10 knots. Daily showers and
thunderstorms expected each afternoon into next early week. Special
Marine Warnings would accompany any of the stronger thunderstorms
capable of producing frequent lightning and wind gusts over 35
knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies climb late this week in response to return southerly flow.
Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of high tide at
sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion