846
FXUS61 KLWX 041416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected
  through Saturday.

- 2)Increasing heat continues through Sunday, but with a return
  of storm chances before a cooling trend ensues next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and warming temperatures are
expected through Saturday.

Early morning radiation inversions have mixed out quickly. As a
result, mid-morning temperatures have already begun to push into
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Skies remain free of any cloud
cover thanks to high pressure centered along the Appalachian
chain. Within this quiet pattern, the forecast remains on track.

Surface high pressure will continue to build overhead today
before shifting offshore Friday through Saturday morning. This
yields dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures each
day. With high pressure overhead, highs remain near normal
tomorrow with highs in the 80s (70s mountains) for most. As high
pressure shifts offshore and upper level ridging builds
overhead, return flow ushers in warmer temperatures with highs
rising into the low to mid 90s along and east of the Blue Ridge
Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, highs will remain in the 80s.
Generally, expect warming temperatures, reduced cloud cover, and
dry conditions through Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat continues through Sunday, but
with a return of storm chances before a cooling trend ensues
next week.

While the northern extent of a broad upper ridge begins to flatten,
temperatures will remain plenty warm heading into Sunday. Just how
much the mercury rises will depend on cloud cover and the spatial
coverage of showers. As a shortwave tracks southeastward from
southern Ontario, some warm advection showers may cross the local
area late Saturday into Sunday morning. Subsequent convective
development should tie closely to how quickly the air mass is able
to respond from the earlier activity. As it stands, the current
forecast package suggests ample warming is likely with highs in the
mid/upper 80s (70s to low 80s for mountain locations).

The Storm Prediction Center continues to reference the northeastern
U.S. in its Sunday severe weather outlook. However, there is quite a
bit of uncertainty which includes the previously mentioned morning
showers, sub-optimal low-level moisture, and surface westerlies. All
could act to offset any more discernible severe threat. Dry mid-
level northwesterlies are noted with winds around 25 to 35 knots.
Such an environment can often steepen mid-level lapse rates to yield
some small hail threat. However, this will depend on whether the
boundary layer is more convective in nature.

As the upper trough swings southeast of the area, there are hints
among the ensembles that the system closes off east of the
Carolinas. This becomes a prominent feature for the early/mid
portions of next week. Although some 12Z/06Z GEFS members keep the
circulation closer to the Mid-Atlantic states, a preponderance of
the models keep any shower threats to the south. At the same time, a
closed upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes which leaves the
local area in between the two primary synoptic features. In the net,
expect a cool start to next week with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s. Additionally, the forecast has trended much drier. Ensemble box-
and-whisker plots show some rebound in temperatures toward middle
portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and light north/northwest winds are expected
through tonight as surface high pressure builds overhead.

The area of high pressure shifts offshore Friday, yielding
southwest winds, increased cloud cover, and continued VFR
conditions. Winds remain light, blowing 5 to 10 knots across the
terminals.

VFR conditions are likely on Saturday as the upper ridge keeps
conditions mostly dry. However, an approaching frontal system will
increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Saturday into much of
Sunday. Some restrictions are possible at times during this more
active phase in the pattern. The cold front clears the region late
Sunday with VFR conditions returning by Monday. Overall winds will
be out of the west-southwest on Saturday into the first half of
Sunday with afternoon gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. Winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front before shifting to northeasterly by
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
North/northwest winds remain below SCA criteria today as
surface high pressure builds overhead. Winds shift out of the S
to SW tonight and into Friday and may near SCA criteria Friday
afternoon in southerly channeling flow up the Chesapeake Bay.
Confidence isn`t as high at the moment, so holding off for this
cycle since we are over 24 hours out, but something to keep in
mind for route planning purposes.

A brief period of southerly channeling is possible Saturday evening
and into the night. Portions of the Chesapeake Bay could approach 20
knots during this surge. Otherwise, winds should stay below advisory
criteria as the cold front passes through on Sunday. A Special
Marine Warning or two are possible on Sunday as frontal showers and
thunderstorms pass through. Winds shift over to northeasterly by
Monday which may bring a return of Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion