190
FXUS61 KLWX 100857
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow Friday
     into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain returns Thursday as colder temperatures follow
Friday into the weekend, with mountain snow and brisk conditions.

Shortwave ridging coupled with westerly downslope flow will
allow for mild afternoons today and Wednesday. High temperatures
today will be around 70. Wednesday will be a few degs cooler
due to more clouds and lighter SE winds. Very dry today with
marginal fire weather concerns. See Fire Weather section below.

Rain is expected to move in by early Thursday as low pressure
crosses the Appalachians and over to the Mid-Atlantic coast.
There weren`t any significant changes seen at the sfc or at
500 mb compared to previous runs with the system expected to
impact the area Thursday into Friday.

Behind this system, much colder air will follow on brisk NNW
winds with the Allegheny Mountains seeing their first
accumulating snow of the season starting late Thu night and
continuing through Fri evening. A few inches of accumulation are
likely falling roughly in a 24-hr period from 06Z Fri through
06Z Sat.

Remaining colder than normal Fri through the first half of next
week under brisk NNW flow between low pressure well offshore and
strong Canadian high pressure to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Lighter winds today than yesterday, but potentially still
gusting 15-20 kt range during the afternoon. Winds shift to the
southeast Wed with even lighter speeds.

Rain is expected to arrive by daybreak Thu and continue through
the day before it starts exiting to the northeast Thu night, but
may linger into Fri morning across northeast Maryland.

Brisk NNW winds gusting 20-30 kt will be the biggest impact
Fri-Sun. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Thursday into Fri
morning with a broken stratocu layer persisting all weekend into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds remain generally below SCA through Thursday. Winds
strengthen Thu night through the weekend and peak in strength
Saturday with SCA conditions expected Thu night through at least
the first part of next week. A period of gale force winds is
possible Saturday due to tight pressure gradient between deep
low offshore and strong Canadian high pressure over the MS River
Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warmer today with highs around 70. This when coupled with
dewpoints in the mid 30s yields MinRh values in the 20s. Winds
will be significantly lighter today than yesterday, but may
still gust 15 to 20 mph at times. This may be enough to meet the
Special Weather Statement criteria. The area of greatest
concern is west of I-95 to the I-81 corridor, which missed much
of the rain of last Thursday night, nearly a week ago.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion