433
FXUS61 KLWX 060214
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to account for current conditions have been
made to the forecast tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through Saturday morning
- 2) Extreme cold and strong winds will result in dangerous wind
chills this weekend.
- 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next
week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.
Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow
(totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday
morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather
Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and
western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls
and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower
overall snow totals (2-4 inches).
The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull
where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of
snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with
the Arctic front.
The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it
east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday
afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other
ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe
2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the
Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense
activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach
1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr.
Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.
The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.
Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.
A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure
building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure
gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent
upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid-
Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks
in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95
corridor Saturday morning.
Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb,
with a stout inversion located just above that level between
850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the
inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below
that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee
waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix
down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected
right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high
confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper
40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65
mph) possible.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the
Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is
highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to
issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east
to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low
for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be
revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most
likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend in temperatures is expected early
next week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
Wednesday.
Upper troughing will finally depart offshore early next week,
enabling more of a zonal flow pattern to develop across the CONUS.
As a result, the Arctic airmass that will be in place this weekend
will gradually erode from southwest to northeast early next week,
leading to a slow, but steady warming trend in temperatures.
Temperatures may reach into the mid to upper 30s to the south and
west of the Potomac on Monday, but will likely hold in the upper 20s
and 30s across much of Maryland. By Tuesday, temperatures are
forecast to rise into the 40s across the bulk of the forecast area,
with colder air (highs in the 30s) hanging on across northeast
Maryland. If warmer solutions were to verify, temperatures could
even make a run at 50 degrees across central Virginia and lower
elevations of the Potomac Highlands. Those warmer temperatures
could potentially lead to more substantial melting of the
snowpack that is currently in place across the entire forecast
area.
Model guidance begins to diverge by the middle of next week.
However, there is some signal for a weak area of low pressure to
track either just to our north through the Great Lakes or overhead
during the day Wednesday. This system could potentially produce some
light overrunning precipitation atop the retreating cold airmass.
Spread in guidance is still substantial, but there are a few
ensemble members that show a wintry mix of ice and/or snow across
the northern half of the forecast area (to the north of I-66/US-50),
while others show rain or dry conditions. All solutions show either
plain rain or dry conditions further south.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least Friday
morning with light winds. A period of snow showers is likely
Friday afternoon into Friday evening that could bring brief
periods of reduced VSBY and CIGs to area terminals. Some gusty
winds are possible with these showers. For 00Z TAFs, tried to
focus the PROB30 groups during the most likely period for snow
showers. Ultimately, prevailing groups may be needed, and up to
one inch of accumulation is possible. There is some potential
for more persistent snowfall, which would lower conditions to
IFR or LIFR. The first frontal passage with a wind shift to the
west will coincide with the departure of this snow.
A powerful Arctic front crosses the area early Saturday morning.
Light winds will rapidly increase from the northwest around
daybreak Saturday, with gusts of 40-50 kt ensuing and lasting
through the afternoon. A few gusts above 50kt are possible at
times, but the majority will likely be in the mid to upper 40kt
range. Winds begin to decrease in the late afternoon, but still
gusting 30-35 kt into the evening.
Elevated northwest winds will persist into Saturday night, then
steadily decrease to ranges of 10-15 knots on Sunday, with gusts
up to 30 knots still possible earlier in the day. By Monday,
winds will become much lighter, with a shift southward possible.
VFR conditions and sunny, clear conditions will generally
encompass the area once Saturday`s arctic front moves northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds are forecast to continue through late Friday
evening. Scattered snow showers will move across the waters
Friday afternoon to evening, and these could produce some
slightly higher gusts, but not expected to be hazardous.
A powerful Arctic front moves across the waters Saturday
morning. Light winds are going to rapidly increase to Gale
force immediately as the front passes through. A Gale Watch
remains in effect for all the waters Saturday into Saturday
night for an expected period of steady gusts around 45 kt.
Occasional gusts to 50kt are possible, and ultimately a Storm
Warning may be needed. A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch remains for
waters south of Drum Point and the lower Tidal Potomac River,
with some light to moderate freezing spray possible elsewhere
the water is not ice covered.
Winds should steadily decrease throughout the day Sunday, but
northwest gusts up to 30 knots are still possible in the central
Chesapeake Bay. Winds should quickly decrease overnight and
generally trend calmer at the start of next week, with 5-10 knots
NW expected Monday and going into Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected late Friday night through Sunday
night. Water levels as low as -2 ft MLLW are possible. Low Water
Advisories are likely to be issued. The ice covered waters of
the northern/middle bay and tidal Potomac could result in the
potential for damage to docks, moorings and boats, especially
when blowout tides result in significantly lower water levels.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
morning for DCZ001.
MD...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
morning for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-502>508.
Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night
for MDZ008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for MDZ501.
High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
evening for MDZ501-502-510.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MDZ501-509-510.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for MDZ509-510.
VA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
morning for VAZ025>031-040-053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for VAZ503.
High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
evening for VAZ503-504-507-508.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for VAZ503-507-508.
WV...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
morning for WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for WVZ503.
High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
evening for WVZ501>506.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for WVZ501-503-505.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
morning for ANZ530.
Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night
for ANZ530>543.
Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday morning through late
Saturday night for ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KRR
MARINE...KRR
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion