662
FXUS61 KLWX 031931
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have kept precipitation chances higher for those south of I-66.
Given extensive cloud cover and continued north to northeasterly
flow, have lowered high temperatures for today and Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A frontal system nearby will maintain rain chances through
  Sunday with below average temperatures.

- 2) Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to the west of
  the Blue Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal system nearby will maintain rain
chances through Sunday with below average temperatures.

The latest surface analysis places a cold front across North
Carolina which stretches southwestward to the Lower Mississippi
Valley. As stout high pressure sits across the Great Lakes, a
cold air damming (CAD) wedge signature is evident across the
local area. In response, mainly northerly flow is occurring
which coupled with ample cloud cover is keeping temperatures in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. The warmer side of this range is
occurring closer to the Mason-Dixon Line where a few cloud
breaks are evident on visible satellite imagery. Looking on
radar, light rain continues to overrun the surface front.
Despite the anomalous moisture in place, the stable nature of
the air mass coupled with some low-level dry air has limited
rainfall amounts. Hourly totals are not amounting to much more
than a trace to 0.05 inches. For those south of I-66, such
activity will likely impact these areas through the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening.

For tonight, a thick stratus deck remains overhead which will
hold overnight lows in the 50s. Some patchy fog is possible,
particularly in the more rural low-lying areas. Rain chances do
remain just before daybreak Sunday as the next impulse traverses
the quasi-stationary front. A band of light rain, perhaps
locally moderate in nature, will track northeastward across the
region through at least the first half of Sunday. A persistent
northeasterly wind should again hold temperatures down in the
60s. Any rain chances should largely come to an end just before
sundown Sunday. Overnight conditions should be fairly similar to
tonight with lows again in the 50s.

As a deep upper trough tracks across far eastern Canada, a more
potent cold front sweeps through the northeastern U.S. on
Monday. This will favor increasing sunshine, but also a large
uptick in northwesterly winds. Afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25
mph are possible, but with highs returning to the upper 60s to
mid 70s (upper 50s to 60s in the mountains).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to
the west of the Blue Ridge early next week.

A strong area of high pressure will build over the area next
week, leading to an extended period of dry conditions. As a cooler
airmass works in and high pressure builds overhead, frost and
freezing temperatures may be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge
both Monday night and Tuesday night. We`ll start to see slightly
warmer air build in from the south and west later in the week. High
temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to be in the 60s
(upper 50s/low 60s mountains) on Tuesday, upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday (60s mountains), and mid 70s (mid-upper 60s mountains) on
Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures will gradually moderate
from the 30s/40s early in the week, to the upper 40s/low 50s later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A thick area of cloud cover remains over the region this
afternoon. However, outside of KCHO, low-level dry air is
keeping cloud ceilings high enough to avoid any restrictions.
Light rain and drizzle moving through central Virginia is
favoring some lower cloud heights around KCHO. Heading into
tonight, low-level moistening will favor a return to MVFR to
even IFR ceilings at most TAF sites. This does come with
increasing rain chances just before daybreak on Sunday. Rain
likely continues through the first half of the day before a
drying trend before dark. Low ceilings likely persist into
Sunday night given persistent northeasterly flow. However, VFR
conditions return for Monday behind a strong cold front. Gusts
up to 20 to 25 knots are possible during the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the north on Tuesday, and then
south on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds have finally begun to decrease in strength this
afternoon with gusts topping out around 10 to 15 knots. Expect
this to persist into Sunday with prevailing north to
northeasterly flow given the CAD wedge in place. The true ramp
up in wind fields comes for the second half of Monday behind a
cold front. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed midday
Monday through the night.

Sub-SCA level northerly winds are expected on Tuesday. Wind shift
to out of the south on Wednesday, and are expected to remain sub-SCA
in nature.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be on the decrease as high pressure builds on
the northwest side of the front that continues to push south.

Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible, particularly at
the more sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion