259
FXUS61 KLWX 270136 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front moves through tonight into tomorrow
  morning, bringing strong mountain winds, showers, and
  potentially a thunderstorm or two. Much cooler temperatures
  are expected behind the front to start the weekend.

- 2) Temperatures gradually warm through midweek with
daily precipitation chances starting Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front moves through tonight into
tomorrow morning, bringing strong mountain winds, showers, and
potentially a thunderstorm or two. Much cooler temperatures are
expected behind the front to start the weekend.

Attention will turn to our north and west later tonight, as
strong to severe thunderstorms form over the Ohio Valley. These
storms will drift southeastward this evening, likely weakening
as they do so. If the storms were to hold together, there could
be a conditional threat for damaging winds across western
Maryland. SPC has this area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms. Regardless of what happens with the
storms, a very strong low- level jet will move in aloft later
this evening into the overnight hours ahead of the approaching
cold front. Strong westerly winds within this low-level jet will
intersect the higher terrain in the Alleghenies, where Wind
Advisories are in effect tonight. Gusts up to 50 mph are
expected in Alleghenies, especially along westward facing
ridgetops. There`s a small chance that these stronger winds
eventually intersect the Blue Ridge, but confidence was too low
at the moment to issue a Wind Advisory there.

At lower elevations, winds will remain gusty out of the
southwest, but not to wind advisory levels. Chances for showers,
and maybe a thunderstorm or two will gradually drift southward
through the night. Most of the precipitation will likely remain
behind the front, and as a result, the greatest chances for
showers will be later tonight into the day tomorrow. Chances for
showers gradually come to an end from north to south late
tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening. By the time
precipitation comes to an end, most locations should receive
between a quarter and a half of an inch of rain.

Northerly winds behind the front will advect much cooler air
into the area over the course of the day tomorrow. Temperatures
will actually be at their highs for the day around Midnight, and
then fall over the course of the day, reaching the 40s to lower
50s by sunset. Temperatures will continue their fall overnight
Friday night, reaching lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Gusty
northwest winds will make it feel even cooler to start the day
Saturday, with wind chills in the teens and 20s around daybreak.
Sunny skies will enable temperatures to climb into the upper 40s
and lower 50s. Winds will decrease Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night as high pressure moves overhead. Clear skies and
calm winds will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions,
enabling temperatures to drop back into the 20s in most
locations (lower to middle 30s in DC/Baltimore and along the
Bay).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures gradually warm through midweek with
daily precipitation chances starting Monday.

Surface high pressure shifts offshore Sunday and Monday with return
flow ushering in warming temperatures and increasing cloud cover.
High temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s on Sunday with dry
conditions expected as high pressure remains overhead. As high
pressure shifts offshore, southerly winds will lead to warming
temperatures and highs in the mid 50s to 60s. Temperatures continue
to warm through mid week with highs on Wednesday in the 70s to
low 80s.

While dry conditions are expected on Sunday, a nearby front
will bring chance to slight chance of precipitation across the
forecast area beginning Monday through midweek. Precipitation
chances will be greatest in the northwest portions of the forecast
area, as the front remains stalled over the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A period of LLWS may be possible at the terminals this evening
as a strong low-level jet moves in just above the surface. A
cold front will move in from the north later tonight. A few
showers may be possible in advance of the front, but most of the
precipitation will likely hold off until behind the front later
tonight into the day tomorrow. Winds will shift to out of the
north behind the front, with MVFR ceilings and showers expected
behind the front tomorrow morning. Conditions should gradually
improve back to VFR tomorrow afternoon, with chances for showers
gradually winding down from north to south.

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals tomorrow night
through Saturday night as high pressure gradually builds in from
the west. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest Saturday
morning, before decreasing in magnitude Saturday afternoon, and
eventually going calm Saturday night as high pressure moves
overhead.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as cloud cover
increases due to a nearby front. South winds on Sunday blow 5 to 10
knots with gusts up to 15 knots. Winds shift to southwest on on
Monday, blowing around 10 knots and gusting 15 to 20 knots. Flight
restrictions are possible at KMRB on Monday as a nearby front brings
precipitation chances to the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect within southwesterly flow through tonight.
A cold front will move over the waters late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to out of the north behind
the front. SCAs continue through the day tomorrow in northerly
flow. After a brief period of lighter winds tomorrow evening,
another surge of higher end SCA gusts move through within
northwesterly flow late tomorrow night into Saturday morning.
Winds finally start to decrease late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night as high pressure builds overhead.

South winds Sunday shift to southwest Monday. Southerly channeling
leads Small Craft Advisory winds beginning over the waters
Sunday afternoon. While a brief reprieve is expected over the tidal
Potomac, SCA conditions continue over the Chesapeake Bay through
Monday morning before winds diminish in the afternoon. With the
exception being the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, winds
remain below SCA criteria Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through overnight into early tomorrow
morning, leading to a shift to northerly winds. Higher RHs and
chances for showers will move in behind the front for the day
Friday.

Depending on how much rain we receive on Friday, fire weather
conditions may potentially become an issue this weekend. Minimum RH
values are forecast to be in the 20s both days this weekend, with
winds gusting to around 15 to 20 mph out of the northwest on
Saturday, and then out of the south on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some sites may reach Action stage with the tide cycle this
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through later tonight
into tomorrow morning. North to northwesterly winds behind the
front on Friday and Saturday will lead to decreasing tidal
levels as we move into the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for WVZ501.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for WVZ505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530-531-535-
     538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-536-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion