537
FXUS61 KLWX 121433 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted sky cover upward significantly for today, increased
wind/wind gusts for the afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph/35 mph
in mountains, and added mention of flurries this morning where
radar shows some returns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Details remain uncertain with a low pressure system on Sunday,
  although winter weather probabilities have been trending
  downward.

- 2) Upslope snow showers continue along and west of the
  Alleghenies through this afternoon.

- 3) Above normal temperatures are expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Details remain uncertain with a low pressure system on
Sunday, although winter weather probabilities have been trending
downward.

While there is still some deterministic model waffling and ensemble
spread, there has been a trend toward more progressive/unphased flow
in regards to the low pressure system affecting the area Sunday and
Sunday night. In this scenario, low pressure passes by to the south
with little to cause it to turn northward. There also isn`t a
persistent supply of cold air as high pressure quickly slides by to
the north. The highest probabilities for wintry weather would be
dependent on elevation as well as how quickly precipitation starts
in the morning. However, there is still plenty of time for further
forecast shifts, so continue to monitor this time period.

The scenario above would also result in a gradient of precipitation
across the area, and the bulk of it would fall as rain. NBM
probabilities of an inch or more are generally 15 to 40 percent,
greatest to the south. However, if higher rainfall values are
realized, especially in areas with residual snow pack and icy rivers
(not to mention the cold/less absorptive ground), there could be some
localized flooding issues. The system should be exiting the area by
Monday morning unless slower, deeper solutions verify.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upslope snow showers continue along and west of the
Alleghenies through this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds along the Alleghenies will yield periods
of snow showers through this afternoon. Moisture remains limited
with heavy snow not likely. Flurries are currently being
observed on traffic cameras across the western Alleghenies with
these expected to continue today. An additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible and will likely remain confined to the highest
ridges. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect.

Mild weather is expected outside of the Alleghenies has surface
high pressure builds over the region. As winds decrease today,
upslope snow showers diminish with dry conditions expected
areawide by tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal temperatures are expected next
week.

Behind Sunday`s system, high pressure at the surface and aloft will
build across the area through the middle of next week. This will
result in temperatures rising well above normal. Some areas could
reach the 60s by Wednesday. Low pressure passing through the Great
Lakes could bring a chance of rain Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across the terminals through Saturday as
high pressure remains overhead. Northwest winds gusting 15 to 25
knots continue today before diminishing on Friday. Winds become
southerly on Saturday, remaining light across all terminals.

Low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into Sunday night.
While details remain uncertain, sub-VFR conditions are likely.
Wintry precipitation chances are trending downward, but there could
still be some snow, especially at MRB. Otherwise a period of rain is
likely. Conditions will likely improve Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM across
all waters for northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25
kt. Gusty NW winds continue overnight, mainly in the central and
southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay. The Small Craft
Advisory will likely be extended overnight in these areas.
Winds diminish on Friday and are expected to stay below SCA
criteria through Saturday. Northwest winds on Friday become
light and variable overnight and then shift to southerly on
Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories will become increasingly likely late Sunday
into Monday as low pressure passes to the south and off the
coast.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion