133
FXUS61 KLWX 120131
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have continued to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watches as
convective activity exits off to the east. In the wake, the
biggest uncertainty is whether any residual activity fires up
overnight if elevated instability remains.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday with a
daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into
next week as a cold front moves through the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday
with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
With robust instability and ample downdraft CAPE in the
atmosphere, the upstream convection that emanated from the Ohio
Valley has cleared a bulk of the region. A slew of Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings continue over far northeastern Maryland
down along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay.
Additionally, another warning continues near the Northern Neck
of Virginia. The associated storms will all exit within the
next 30 to 60 minutes which should yield a quieter night ahead.
However, if any elevated instability remains, a pop up shower or
even a rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out.
Heat and humidity lingers Friday, and unless there is a lot of
morning cloud cover it looks to be a bit hotter. There is the
potential for a bit more mixing down of lower dew points given
lingering westerly flow, but heat index values likely approach
100 to 105 again in the afternoon. For now, have highlighted the
same areas in a Heat Advisory for tomorrow as was highlighted
today. Could see an expansion west being possible, but given the
potential for lower dew points compared to today, this was a
good first stab at it, and will allow further shifts to make a
final call on the westward extent. However, as always, just
because an advisory may not be in effect for all areas, it will
be very hot/humid either way, so all should take proper
precautions once again.
Stronger forcing associated with an upper trough glancing by to
the northwest and an approaching cold front lends to higher
certainty of more numerous thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Flow aloft will tick up slightly, though still modest
and out of the W to WNW. There is some concern with the amount
of spread amongst the model guidance as to where the best
coverage is. Many of the hi-res models thus far keep convection
suppressed to the south, likely due to that westerly flow aloft
potentially stifling convection. However, with abundant
instability in place once again, am thinking that storms may
once again develop as they move east of the I-81/Blue Ridge
corridor as they run into the most favorable airmass. Given the
amount of instability in place once again, thunderstorms may
produce some rather gusty winds. Severe/damaging wind gusts are
plausible, especially with the added forcing that should help
force storms into bands. Isolated large hail is possible with
the most intense updrafts, and again could see the potential for
some significant wind gusts.
Thunderstorm activity should wind down by the evening hours.
Following the Friday night cold frontal passage, high pressure
will briefly pivot over the Mid-Atlantic for Saturday. This
results in notably lower humidity and temperatures several
degrees cooler (relatively speaking) as well.
More sun than clouds amid light northwest breezes are expected.
Temperatures falling into the 60s Saturday night with dew points
around 60 will feel like a stark contrast to the more oppressive
humidity in the preceding couple of days/nights.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return late
Sunday into next week as a cold front moves through the region.
A deep upper-level trough will form over the Great Lakes towards the
end of the weekend, resulting in a cold front that will track
through the East Coast between late Sunday and going into Monday.
There are a couple of ML models that show a severe risk for this
front, bringing back severe chances after a brief pause on Saturday.
Once this cold front moves through, we could begin to see a brief
dip in temperatures, with highs for Monday currently ranging largely
in the 80s. Although the low pressure system associated with this
front will push north by late Monday, another area of low pressure
could build towards the south and push north on Tuesday, bringing
additional chances for rain and showers. By this point, severe
chances become much more uncertain as instability looks modest,
but shear will increase. Overall, expect a repeating pattern of
frontal boundaries tracking through the region bringing several
opportunities for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Any
lingering restrictions have come to an end as convection has
shifted east of the terminals. There is a higher chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a
cold front approaches. Added that threat in as a PROB30 for
now. There is still some uncertainty amongst model guidance for
now, but still thinking the chances are higher on Friday. Some
of the high-res model guidance just disagrees, so will have to
see how the evening/overnight guidance changes.
Winds will be fairly light out of the west or southwest both
days outside of any storms.
VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend, with
some reduced conditions possible beginning Sunday evening associated
with potential showers and thunderstorms. Periodically reduced
conditions associated with a low pressure system could continue
through early next week. Gusts between 15-20 knots are possible
Sunday afternoon/evening before falling again Monday, with
southwest winds shifting easterly by Monday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through
Friday, becoming northwest Friday night through Saturday. There
is a potential of at least brief near SCA conditions behind a
cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of this
front, potential showers and thunderstorms bring a risk of
lightning and strong winds to the waters on Friday afternoon/evening.
This will likely support the need of Special Marine Warnings,
with 50+ knot winds possible in any storms.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday evening with gusts up to 20 knots
possible, but should go back below SCA thresholds by Monday morning.
Southwest winds shift northerly Monday afternoon before shifting
southeast.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average through Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily
record values at some sites.
Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).
=================================================================
June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site Record High Record Warm Low
DCA 101 F (set in 1911) 74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD 95 F (set in 2016) 72 F (set in 2005)
BWI 99 F (set in 1911) 75 F (set in 1914)
DMH 100 F (set in 1984) 79 F (set in 1984)
NAK 96 F (set in 2000) 79 F (set in 1973)
HGR 97 F (set in 1911) 73 F (set in 2005)
MRB 101 F (set in 1911) 71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO 99 F (set in 1911) 76 F (set in 2020)
=================================================================
June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site Record High Record Warm Low
DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015)
IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986)
BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947)
DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914)
CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008-011-013-
014-016>018-508.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ054-057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion