719
FXUS61 KLWX 240111
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds decrease overnight with light winds tomorrow limiting the
fire weather threat. Gale Warning remains in effect over the
waters until 10PM this evening. No significant changes were made
to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) Elevated fire danger threat continues for portions of
central VA today. Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
-2) After a brief warm-up, a cold front will bring a chance
of rain Thursday night into Friday and cooler temperatures for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An elevated fire danger threat for portions of the area
today with gusty northwest winds. Cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday.
Fire wx conditions have not materialized as expected across
central VA today. RHs remaining in the 40-55% range with winds
less than 18 kts. There could be some mixing of drier air down
lowering RHs through the afternoon into the early evening, but
the fire wx SPS is rather marginal especially with up to a tenth
of rain overnight east of the Blue Ridge.
Winds will decrease tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Temps will drop to the coldest in some time, with widespread
lows in the 20s to near freezing along the I-95 corridor.
Quiescent wx continues Tue with high pressure building overhead
which will lead to light winds, mostly sunny skies, and below
normal temperatures. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the
upper 40s and lower 50s for most. Lows Tuesday night fall back
into the low to mid 30s.
With high pressure moving offshore, temps will moderate back
into the 50s/60s. More clouds than sun Wed with sw nearby, but
remaining dry.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief warm-up, a cold front will bring a chance
of rain Thursday night into Friday and cooler temperatures for the
weekend.
The Mid-Atlantic will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system moving into the Great Lakes on Thu. Temps have been
trending toward the warm side of the envelope over the past few
days, with many locations now expected to reach the lower to mid
70s. Most locations should stay dry Thu, although the
combination of isentropic ascent and subtle perturbations aloft
could result in a few light showers. They would be most probable
along the Alleghenies.
The low will race toward the Canadian Maritimes by Fri morning,
sending a cold front southward. With the front becoming
somewhat parallel to the westerly upper flow, there is some
uncertainty with how quickly the front moves south, as well as
how much moisture survives crossing the mountains. Thunderstorms
may develop across the Ohio Valley Thursday as well, but
instability will be lower east of the Appalachians as any of
that activity potentially reaches the area Thu night. Rain
chances will peak Thursday night into Fri. A secondary low
crossing North Carolina may prolong or renew the rain chances on
Fri. The frontal zone will be definitively south of the area by
Sat morning. Temps will likely start a downward trend Fri, but
will be dependent on the front`s progress. Believe the frontal
moisture should depart before it becomes cold enough to snow Fri
night, except perhaps in the Alleghenies.
High pressure of Canadian origin will build into the Ohio Valley
Sat and overhead Sat night. Below normal temps will result,
with most areas dropping below freezing Sat night. Temps will
begin to moderate Sun and Mon with continued dry weather as the
high slowly drifts eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with the cold front east of the terminals this
afternoon. Continued gusty WNW winds with gusts up to 30-35 kts
possible.
VFR conditions persist tonight through Tue, with winds
gradually decreasing tonight, and then eventually becoming very
light to calm on Tue with high pressure overhead. Clouds
increase Wed, but we remain VFR as high pressure shifts
offshore.
S`ly winds may gust to around 20 kt on Thu as a low pressure
system passes well to the north. A cold front may bring sub- VFR
ceilings and rain showers Thu night into Fri. NW`ly winds will
become gusty behind the front Fri into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters until 10PM this
evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect after that,
persisting overnight. Lighter winds are expected on Tue as high
pressure builds overhead.
Southwest winds may begin to increase Wed and Wed night high
pressure departs, but winds look to remain below SCA criteria.
SCAS may be needed in S`ly flow Thu and Thu night as a low
pressure system passes well north of the area. The associated
cold front will cross the NW flow in its wake. These gusty
winds may continue into Sat.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CPB