075
FXUS61 KLWX 050757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible today and this evening,
mainly for Virginia, West Virginia, and western MD. Drying out,
cooler with lower humidity to round out the Labor Day holiday
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Shower and thunderstorm chances remain today as the front
  slowly sags south through region. Marginal to Slight Risk of
  severe storms for most of VA and eastern WV.

- 2) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower and thunderstorm chances remain today as the front
slowly sags south through region. Marginal to Slight Risk of severe
storms for most of VA and eastern WV.

Mesoscale complex of thunderstorms has finally organized over
NE Indiana and the western half of Ohio. Now that it has formed,
the HRRR should have a decent handle on it. It has it
progressing southeast in the flow, reaching our SW zones in
w-central VA and adjacent WV late morning. Should continue
moving across our counties there through mid-afternoon. Past
that in the later afternoon/evening there is more uncertainty,
but seems like the tstm threat will continue through that
period.

Monitoring
a few light showers out there this morning. Most of this
activity has been confined to far northeast and north- central
MD and central VA. Also keeping an eye on a little ripple of
energy back across southern Michigan and northern Ohio. This
area of showers and t-storms looks to drop south and east with
time later this morning and into the afternoon bringing
additional spotty showers and t- storms, mainly to central and
southwest VA.

Scattered to broken mid and high level clouds to pass through with
an increase in cloud cover heading toward daybreak as the front sags
through. The front itself is currently draped to the north of the
PA/MD line. Hi-res guidance has the front in the vicinity of the
Potomac River later this morning and down along the I-64 corridor or
just south of that area Saturday afternoon. As a result, expect a
continuation of spotty shower chances in and around the front this
morning with a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon as a wave of
energy pushes across the front. Any severe threat appears low
with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for portions of the
southern Shenandaoh Valley and central VA Piedmont region.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with storms along with
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s and low 80s along the
PA/MD line to around 90 just south of Charlottesville, VA. Lows
Saturday night will fall into the upper 50s and mid 60s as drier air
punches into the region. Humidity will slowly lower throughout the
day as the front pushes south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday, with accompanying mid-level
dry air that will bring down humidity and t-storm chances. Daily
highs drop into the low 80s, along with drier dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast.
Temperatures likely begin to creep up again during this time,
accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-level dry air tracks south
of the region with more humid air coming in from the north. This
will correspond with strong upper-level trough forming over Quebec
around midweek, with an accompanying cold front tracking across the
East Coast sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. This could
create some chances for precipitation over the region, with some
indicators for low-end instability over the area as this mid-level
moisture tracks southeast. Severe probabilities look low at this
time, but a few thunderstorms are not completely out of the question
as this front moves through.

Looking towards late next week, temperatures likely drop again in
the wake of this cold front Friday as it tracks to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected throughout the weekend
into early next week. Some temporary reductions may be noted
early Saturday morning due to pockets of low to mid level
clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers working through the
region. Confidence is low on lower cigs with a best guess of
BKN-OVC 030-050kft cigs across most of the corridor heading into
early Saturday morning. Of course this will be dictated by the
placement of front with winds changing toward more of a
west/northwest direction overnight and northerly direction
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Additional
restrictions due to thunderstorms may be noted between 19-
23z/3-7pm across CHO and RIC as a the front heads further south
and a disturbance pivots through. Went with PROB30s here and
also at DCA/IAD where a couple of leftover showers may push
through. No shower or thunderstorm activity is expected for
aviators SUnday and Monday next week as weather conditions
continue to improve.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals Sunday
through Wednesday. Easterly winds shift southerly on Tuesday
morning. Next chance for thunderstorms arrives with a cold front
late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected into this weekend, though NW gusts
could approach marginal SCA levels tonight into Saturday.

Winds could approach SCA levels Sunday evening before diminishing
back below thresholds by Monday morning. Northeasterly winds Monday
shift southerly on Tuesday. Winds stay below 15 knots through Monday
and Tuesday. Winds could increase to SCA levels on Wednesday ahead
of an incoming cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CS/EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion