652
FXUS61 KLWX 121402
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1002 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freshened up the hourly forecast details for today, but
otherwise no substantial changes at this time. There was a
15 percent severe weather outlook issued for Day 5/Monday for a
large part of the forecast area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A brief period of snow may occur on the tail end of a
frontal passage later this morning into the afternoon.
- 2) Another strong cold front will bring strong southerly
winds on Friday.
- 3) Another strong cold front will arrive early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A brief period of snow may occur on the tail end of a
frontal passage later this morning into the afternoon.
A potent cold front has pushed southeast of the area this
morning. Temperatures have been rapidly falling from NW to SE.
Anafrontal showers have been occurring, with a coating of snow
noted in the higher elevations of the Alleghenies as
temperatures have fallen below freezing. Snow is also showing
up in webcams along the Blue Ridge. Regional radar has the
appearance that the back edge of the precipitation shield is
hanging back farther west than predicted. However, observations
show dry conditions now in Cumberland and Petersburg, evidence
of low level dry advection undercutting the mid level
precipitation generation.
Coverage/duration could still further expand east of the Blue
Ridge as the right entrance to the upper jet and sharp mid
level trough axis move through. With the rapid low level cold
advection, most models continue to show this precipitation
changing over to snow. This will likely be rate- based as near
surface temperatures should still be above freezing in the lower
elevations. In addition, all the forcing is in the mid levels,
with dry advection noted beneath in forecast soundings. Models
are also often biased too cold in these post frontal downslope
scenarios. So while some snow is likely as precipitation ends,
impacts should be limited given the recent warmth. Outside of
the mountains, a few tenths of an inch on grassy surfaces can`t
be ruled out, with the best chance south and east of the DC
metro, where there is higher confidence for those aforementioned
heavier rates. Additionally, guidance really trended up
overnight, with increased confidence in one to three inches of
snowfall on the Blue Ridge. Winter Weather Advisories were
hoisted as a result. Briefly, skyline drive could experience
some very heavy snow and low visibilities, with roads becoming
slushy. Do think this should melt off relatively quickly given
the recent record warmth across much of the region. But given
the potential rates, certainty could see that warmth at least be
briefly overcome.
Overall, don`t expect significant impacts from this event
outside of those Blue Ridge zones, but some guidance does depict
some very heavy snowfall on the back end of this front,
particularly over southern MD. So will have to watch the
evolution of this event closely, especially with regards to how
temperatures are stacking up with model initialization.
The other aspect of the front will be gusty northwest winds.
There have been a few sporadic wind gusts up to 50 mph in the
postfrontal pressure rises, but winds should level out this
afternoon. Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure
slides by to the south. Subfreezing low temperatures will
return to much of the forecast area tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will bring strong
southerly winds on Friday.
Another low pressure system will be moving through the Great
Lakes Friday. The increased pressure gradient will result in
gusty southwesterly winds. These winds could once again near
Wind Advisory criteria in the higher elevations. There could
also be fire weather issues due to low humidity (see separate
section below). The cold front will push through Friday night
with high pressure building in from the west Saturday. Little to
no precipitation is expected, and the net effect will only have
minimal impacts on temperatures. In fact, temperatures will
likely remain slightly above average through Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive early
next week.
A third cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across
the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture
recovery is expected ahead of this front to result in numerous
showers and possible thunderstorms. Can`t ruled out some severe wx
due to the strength of the wind fields. Gusty winds will accompany
this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.
Longwave trough pattern establishes across the East thereafter with
strong sfc high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than
normal pattern for the middle and second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front has pushed southeast of the area this morning.
Widespread rain is occurring, although MVFR conditions have been
sporadic so far as low level dry air tries to undercut the rain.
Precipitation could end briefly as a rain/snow mix, so have
added a RASN mix into the latest TAFs to illustrate that. There
could even be brief period of pure snow, but confidence too low
at any of the TAF sites to include that at this time. Confidence
in any persistent IFR conditions is low, but most probable in
any areas that change to pure snow. Dry/VFR conditions return by
mid to late afternoon. Northwesterly winds are gusting to
around 35 kt at times this morning, with subtle decreases this
afternoon, then quickly declining after sunset.
Expect largely VFR conditions on Friday into Saturday. The
bigger story will be the gusty southwesterly winds on Friday
ahead of another strong cold front. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots
are expected before winds shift to west-northwesterly Friday
night into Saturday and decrease throughout the day.
Strong cdfnt forecast to cross the area Monday with showers and
possible thunderstorms and gusty winds in both the pre-frontal
and post- frontal environment.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong cold front has pushed south of the waters this morning.
Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for all waters as the potential for gale
force gusts appears to be rather brief/sporadic this morning.
Additionally, showers are expected along this line, which may
actually briefly mix with or change to snow. Precipitation
clears the area this evening. Winds should decrease fairly
quickly later this evening as well.
Ahead of the next cold front, southwesterly winds will increase
Friday. SCAs are likely. While gusts could approach gale force,
think the wind direction and relatively cooler waters will
prevent the stronger winds from reaching the surface due to low
level stability.
The cold front will push through early Saturday morning. While
some marginal advisory conditions may persist through the day,
overall the westerly winds are forecast to be lighter.
Another period of SCA conditions is expected Sunday lasting
through the middle of next week ahead and behind potent cold
front fcst to cross the area Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday and Saturday look somewhat concerning in regards to fire
weather, especially Friday.
With around a tenth to a quarter of an inch through early this
morning already, and more to come, don`t anticipate any issues
today. However, there will be a sharp decrease in RH later this
afternoon, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Additionally, gusty
winds out of the WNW will aid in the drying of fuels. So, while
the fire weather threat is lower today, it sets the stage for
Friday.
Friday is where the level of concern increases. Another strong, and
this time dry, cold front will be approaching the region before
moving through Friday night. Ahead of that, very strong southerly
winds pick up. The air mass will also continue to be extremely dry,
and could be locally enhanced in downslope flow west of the Blue
Ridge. Current forecast has low to mid 20s RHs in the typical drier
valleys. Given that the winds likely have dried things out
substantially from any rain the day prior, this looks to be a
concerning day in regards to fire weather. The main limiting
factor will be wet fuels from today`s rain, although the lowest
amounts will occur west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal passage
from Friday night. RH values could drop into the teens across much
of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will remain somewhat
elevated, especially along/north of the interstate 66 corridor,
where 15-25 mph winds can be expected. More analysis will need to be
done to determine the threat for any headlines Saturday, but could
see something being necessary on this day as well.
Gusty winds but increasing RHs on Sunday ahead of another front,
which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night. Less of a
threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel the impacts of some
gusty southeasterly flow (20-25 mph gusts).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
for MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
VAZ503.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
VAZ507-508.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CJL
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CJL
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion