013
FXUS61 KLWX 141932
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this
weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through
Friday.

A closed ULL will move nearby today, causing surface low
pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will
be broken to overcast stratocu and much cooler temps (lower
elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). This could be
the coolest MaxT until fall.

Upslope rain showers will continue in the NW flow through the
day. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies,
have maintained a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern
areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain
drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well.
NW winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low
temps will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s
possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough
lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close
in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.

The upper low will push offshore on Fri, which will lead to
warmer temps. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees
short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun
compared to Thu, mid and high level clouds may increase in the
afternoon. NW`ly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should
start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure
builds south of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures are expected beginning this
weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through
the middle of next week.

Sfc high will move offshore over the weekend. The combination
of return flow and rising heights will lead to temps rising
above normal, with some locations potentially nearing 90 by
Sun. The one caveat is the upper level pattern will still be
relatively zonal, and a cold front will attempt to drop south
from the Great Lakes. Embedded SW trofs in this flow could help
initiate some diurnal convection each day along with terrain
circulations. Coverage does appear limited, however. The
sagging front will likely quickly return north as upper level
ridging starts building Sun night.

Upper level ridging and return flow from the south will cause
temps to continue to warm into the start of next week, with
highs potentially into the 90s Monday and Tuesday. While sfc
high pressure is expected to persist offshore, increasing
diurnal instability could lead to daily convection developing
over the higher terrain.

Off to the west, a deep trof begins to develop over the
northern Plains, with a cold front that will slowly begin to
approach the region between Tue and Wed. This will bring more
widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms, although
temps may not begin to see a significant decrease until after
it transitions offshore sometime mid-to-late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW winds remain 20-25 kts thru this eve with continued VFR. A
stray shower or sprinkle can`t be ruled out through the
afternoon. Winds should decrease a bit with sunset, although
some occasional gusts will likely persist through the night
(except CHO). Cigs should scatter out as well, but it`s a bit
uncertain how quickly that occurs.

Gusty NW winds Fri with gusts around 20 kts, perhaps a bit
lighter than today, and they will diminish in the afternoon as
high pressure approaches. Stratocu cigs are less likely, but mid
and high level clouds will likely increase.

VFR conditions are likely Sat with light S/SW winds. A shower
or tstorm could approach MRB during the evening.

Primarily VFR conditions are expected at terminals on Sun and
Mon. An isolated tstorm could affect the northern terminals in
the Sun that could cause temporary reduced conditions at
terminals. Winds briefly shift w`ly by Sun afternoon before
shifting SSE on Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect NW 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day. SCAs continue
through Friday, although some of the interior waters could have
lighter winds briefly tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter
tomorrow by a few kts. The SCA ends at 3 PM, although there is
some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds
are expected by Fri evening as high pressure builds to the S.

S to SW winds develop Sat. Gusts could occasionally approach
SCA levels,

Winds stay below SCA criteria Sun and Mon. SW`ly winds
gradually become SE by Mon night.

&&


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion