305
FXUS61 KLWX 051352
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
952 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by
  beneficial rainfall tomorrow.

- 2) High pressure moves in at the end of the week, followed by
 weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by
beneficial rainfall tomorrow.

High pressure shifts offshore today with warm, dry, and windy
conditions expected. High temperatures rise into the 80s for
most with higher elevations staying in 70s. Cloud cover
increases from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Rainfall associated
with the frontal passage is expected to be widespread and
beneficial. A few thunderstorm are possible, although rainfall
will primarily be stratiform. Rain moves out of the area
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning with cooler
temperatures expected for the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure moves in at the end of the week,
followed by weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures.

Surface high pressure moves into the region by Thursday night after
Wednesday`s frontal boundary transitions offshore, maintaining
temperatures in the 50s and 60s until the end of the week.
Temperatures start to increase again going into the weekend, with
highs in the 70s on Saturday and Sunday. A few rain showers
associated with a shortwave upper level trough are possible on
Saturday.

Looking ahead, another Great Lakes frontal boundary looks to be
making its way towards the East Coast by early next week, bringing
additional chances for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots beginning this morning
through Wednesday morning. As a cold front pushes across the
terminals on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, winds
shift to northwesterly and diminish. Additionally, widespread
rain showers and thunderstorms bring reduced ceilings and
visibilities to all terminals.

Northerly winds on Thursday shift southwest by Friday evening, with
gusts up to 10-15 knots. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are still
possible on Thursday as a strong cold front transitions offshore.
VFR conditions on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with sub-VFR conditions expected during heaviest
rain showers in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remains in effect for all waters through
Wednesday afternoon as southerly winds gusts up to 30 knots. A
cold front crosses the waters later Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening, with winds shifting to northwesterly and
diminishing behind the frontal passage. Winds remain below SCA
criteria on Thursday, although winds in the southern portions of
the waters near criteria. Light and variable winds are expected
beginning Friday morning.

South winds Saturday morning gust near SCA criteria. Winds
diminish to below SCA criteria Saturday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm, dry, and windy conditions today lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty winds 30
to 35 mph, low humidities in the mid 20s, and fuel moisture
between 8-10% are expected today, with the greatest risk for
dangerous fire wx behavior west of the Blue Ridge where recent
cool temperatures and freezes have slowed down green-up. Greener
vegetation east of the Blue Ridge Mountains should preclude any
fires from exhibiting extreme fire behavior, but gusty winds of
30-35 mph may still cause fire containment difficulty even
though fuels are not as dry as they were two weeks ago. Special
Weather Statements for Elevated Fire Danger have been issued
across Virginia, the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, and
Western Maryland through 7 PM this evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ535-536-
     538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...SRT

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion