657
FXUS61 KLWX 200111
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds have diminished significantly as the sun has set this
evening. Additionally, clouds have cleared out across much of
the region. A few showers are now making their way into western
MD/eastern WV. No changes to the forecast at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) Colder early this week with a fire weather threat Monday.
- (2) Widespread frost/freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning.
- (3) Warmer temperatures mid to late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder early this week with a fire weather
threat Monday.
A strong cold front will continue to push offshore tonight while
a secondary cold front approaches from the west. This second
front will cross early Monday with high pressure building in its
wake. Initial breezy conditions will abate this evening before
picking up again Monday morning.
Very dry air will move overhead through Monday. However, there
is a layer between roughly 6,000 and 12,000 feet where notable
moisture is present. The thought is scattered to broken stratocu
and wave clouds will develop out of this, especially as the
secondary front pushes through early Monday, then the trailing
shortwave/upper-level trough pivot overhead Monday afternoon. A
few sprinkles or a pop up shower can`t be ruled out (with a
little snow likely above 2500 feet over the mountains). The nose
of the shortwave aloft crosses roughly between I-70 and I-64 on
Monday, and even if precipitation evaporates before hitting the
ground (virga), very steep low-level lapse rates could result in
some enhanced gustiness. Frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
expected again Monday afternoon, with peak gusts of 35 to 40
mph possible, mainly at higher elevations.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected through early this week.
Please refer to the Fire Weather section below for more details
on the fire weather threat Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost/freeze Monday night into
Tuesday morning.
High pressure builds overhead Monday night into Tuesday leading
to lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light
to calm winds Monday night into Tuesday morning are likely to
bring widespread frost/freeze conditions. Expanded the Freeze
Watch across the remainder of the area, thinking that the very
dry airmass and light winds will be favorable for strong
radiational cooling outside the major urban centers and away
from larger bodies of water.
This is ~10 days past the median date of the last spring freeze
based on 1991-2020 climatology for areas along/east of I-81.
Given the warmth early this spring, many areas are ahead of
schedule from a growth stand point so this freeze could be
rather impactful.
There are no frost/freeze headlines for the Alleghenies as the
growing season has not started there yet.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures mid to late week.
Warmer air will work into the region for Wednesday through
Saturday as upper-level ridging gradually builds in aloft. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the 70s to lower 80s
each day, with overnight lows generally in the 50s. Much of the
time period should remain dry, but a shower or thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out on Wednesday or Saturday as weakening cold
fronts approach from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lighter winds are already starting to overspread the region this
evening and will continue overnight. A secondary cold front
likely results in 20 to 30 knot gusts again heading into Monday
with a spotty shower possible. Otherwise, VFR through Tue.
Winds shift to S by Tuesday, then SW Wednesday.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Wednesday and
Thursday, although a brief reduction to sub-VFR can`t be ruled
out in any showers (or t-storms) on Wednesday. Winds are
expected to be out of the southwest/west on Wednesday, before
becoming light out of the northwest on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds become lighter tonight then increase again Monday with a
secondary front. Light winds Monday night turn southerly Tuesday
with additional SCAs possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sub-SCA level winds are expected late Wednesday into Thursday.
Winds will generally be out of the southwest/west on Wednesday,
before becoming light and variable on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Substantial drying occurred today following a relatively weak
frontal passage in terms of moisture. Gusty winds and mostly
sunny skies all afternoon likely sufficiently dried fuels in any
areas that got less than a quarter inch of QPF. Some areas of
the Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia piedmont fall into
this category. These same areas have been the driest recently,
and may also end up with the lowest humidity Monday afternoon.
That, coupled with the breezy conditions, results in an elevated
threat for the rapid spread of fires. The potential of a more
substantial cumulus field, recent greenup, and at least some
rain across the area may keep a more significant threat at bay,
hence no Fire Weather Watches have been issued. A Fire Danger
Special Weather Statement was issued for Monday however.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505>508-
526-527.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
531-535-536-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530-
531-535-536-538>540-542.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-
537-541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KJP/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KJP/CPB
NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion